拉瓦尼翁伊卡拥抱复杂性和不确定性

本文格式为Word版，下载可任意编辑——拉瓦尼翁伊卡拥抱复杂性和不确定性尉艳娟

身處VUCA时代，面对繁杂性和不确定性，何以解忧？拉瓦尼翁·伊卡（LavagnonIka）教授答曰：“拥抱繁杂性和不确定性。〞

拉瓦尼翁·伊卡现任多所大学工程管理教授，InternationalJournalofProjectManagement（《国际工程管理期刊》）副主编，曾荣获2022年IPMA研究奖等奖项。他的研究重点包括工程运作方式、跨国工程、工程成败、成本超支、收益不足及繁杂性和工程行为等。

拉瓦尼翁·伊卡教授认为，导致工程繁杂性的因素包括三个方面：工程的内在繁杂性、环境的社会政治繁杂性、临时出现的繁杂性（或不确定性）。80%的繁杂性源于前两个方面，20%的繁杂性在于第三个方面。

对于如何处理工程繁杂性，拉瓦尼翁·伊卡教授这样说：“健全的工程管理计划是处理内在繁杂性的良好开端。良好的背景（Context）评估和相关方参与有助于解决社会政治繁杂性问题。现实的风险管理计划有助于应对临时出现的繁杂性。〞他建议，对繁杂性的响应要考虑工程的类型，对于传统工程，“理解—减少—响应〞的态度可能是一个很好的方法。但对于像iPhone12这样繁杂的突破型工程来说，“理解—拥抱—适应〞的态度更适合。

采访中，拉瓦尼翁·伊卡教授还共享了超大型工程失败和返工的原因。谈到工程的成功，他强调：“成功不仅仅是失败的对立面。假如你从失败中吸取教训，你可能会从失败中获得成功。例如，假如微软没有在Lotus1、2、3上的失败，他们很可能就不会推出Excel电子表格。另外，成功并非全方位存在的。例如，A380飞机对工程师来说是技术上的成功，但对其投资者来说却是战略上的失败。短期内看似成功的工程，从长远来看可能会蜕变成商业灾难。〞

采访中，拉瓦尼翁·伊卡教授提到一个概念“计划谬误〞（PlanningFallacy）。“计划谬误〞是指发起人和规划者在决策时，有意或无意地低估工程的时间、成本、风险，高估工程的收益和成功的概率。“计划谬误〞对工程影响巨大，特别是在面对繁杂性和不确定性时。

拉瓦尼翁·伊卡教授指出，面对繁杂性和不确定性，我们需要“共享式领导力〞（SharedLeadership），“共享式领导力〞为不同层级的相关方之间的共同领导提供了方法。共享式领导力应当成为应对贫困、气候变化等重大挑战的一种常态。

拉瓦尼翁·伊卡教授对哲学着迷，为了防止“只见树木不见森林〞，他建议我们可以经常发问：这个工程真的是这样子吗？它看起来和实际上有什么区别吗？工程中最真实的部分是什么？

本次采访我们还探讨了“基于成果的管理〞（Results-BasedManagement，RBM）这一话题，拉瓦尼翁·伊卡教授提醒道，我们应当避免一个基于成果的陷阱，不要满足于短期内简单衡量的东西，避免出现“手术成功但患者死亡〞的典型案例。

谈到工程管理的未来，拉瓦尼翁·伊卡教授说道：“新冠肺炎疫情改变了工程交付的游戏规矩，工程管理行业需要去适应改变，拥抱繁杂性和不确定性。〞

Interview

PartⅠProjectComplexity

Q1.Whatarethefactorsthatleadtocomplexityinprojectmanagement？

LavagnonIka：

Complexityisafactoflife.Thereisnoescape.Thinkaboutthecoronaviruspandemicandhowithasupendedourlives.Whowouldthinkthatevenaftermorethanoneyearwellstillbestrugglingwiththisinvisible，tinybutsopowerfulvirus？So，youdunderstandthatcomplexityispartandparcelofprojects，whichareakintoabetonthefuture.

Whileamyriadoffactorscanleadtocomplexityinprojects，Iwouldsuggestthatbyandlargetheyrelatetothreeaspects：

theintrinsiccomplexityoftheproject，thesocio-politicalcomplexityofthesetting，andtheemergentcomplexity（oruncertainty）ortheextenttowhichtherearechangesintheothertwoaspectsovertime.Take，forexample，theBeltandRoadInitiativeandthevaccinationrollout.Theyarecomplexprojectswhichholdintangible，unclearorinstablegoalsand/ortakeplaceinsocio-politicallycomplexcontexts.Myco-authorandIcallthesetypesofinitiatives“fuzzyprojects〞inourupcomingbookatMcGrawHillnextyear.

Q2.Whatareyourtipsondealingwithcomplexityinprojectmanagement？

LavagnonIka：

Ithasbeensuggestedthat80%ofthecomplexityofaprojectliesinintrinsicandsocio-politicalaspects，and20%initsemergingaspect.So，weshouldaddressthesethreeaspectsifwearetobesuccessful.Asoundprojectmanagementplanisagoodstarttotameintrinsiccomplexity.Goodcontextassessmentandstakeholderengagementcanhelpwithsocio-politicalcomplexity.Arealisticriskmanagementplancanhelpanticipatebothwelcomeandunwelcomesurprisesandthusconfrontemergingcomplexity.

However，Iwouldsuggestagoodresponsetocomplexitydependsontheprojecttype.TakeiPhone12asasmallproductchangeproject.Thetraditional“understand-reduce-respond〞attitudetocomplexitymightworkasagoodrecipe.ButitcouldfallshortforthemorecomplexprojectssuchasiPhone12（abreakthrough），whichneedmorecreativity，experimentation，anditerationfortheirdelivery.Forthesebreakthroughprojects，an“understand-embraceadapt〞attitudetocomplexityismoresuitable，asthetipistoembrace，notreducecomplexity.Asyouknow，thislatterattitudehasprovenmoreeffectiveindealingwiththepandemic（e.g.，economicandhealthresponsesbygovernments）andthemassvaccination（e.g.，learningandadjustingtotheemergenceofvariantsforbothvaccinedevelopmentandvaccinationrollout）.

PartⅡProjectFailureandSuccess

Q3.Basedonyourobservation，whydomega-projectsfail？Whatarethecommonreasons？

LavagnonIka：

Therearehundredsofreasonswhymegaprojectsfailanditisafutileexercisetotrytolistthemall.Whatweneedinthefaceofcomplexity，accordingtoWeick（anorganizationalscholar），is“profoundsimplicity〞.IconcurwithWeick.So，myresearchsuggeststhreeproblemareasformega-projects：

1）structuralorpolitical，economic，physical/geographic，sociocultural，historical，demographic，andenvironmentalproblems；

2）institutionalorcollusion/corruption，capacitybuilding，lackofpoliticalsupport，toomuchpoliticalinterference，governance，andprincipal-agentproblems；

and

3）managerialorinitiation，planning，implementation，andmonitoringandevaluationproblems（includingassociatedbehavioralfactors）.

So，context，institutionsandprojectmanagement（includingbehavioralbias）mayfailprojects，aswehaveseeninthevaccinationrollout，theCOVID-19vaccinedevelopment，theBigDigHighwayinBoston（US），theCrossrailprojectintheUKorthePhilharmonicHallofParis（France），thePhoenixPaySysteminCanadaandmanyothers.

Q4.Howdoyouthinkweshouldreducethereworkrateinconstructionprojects？

LavagnonIka：

Reworkisabigchallengeinconstructionprojects，especiallythoseofalargeandcomplexnature.Bysomeestimates，itcanincreasethecostofprojectsbyastaggering12%.ThatisatleastwhatIhavelearnedwithmycollaborationwithspecialistsofthequestionsuchasPeterLove.However，inpractice，emphasishasbeenputonsafetyattheexpenseofquality，inasortof“either/or〞framing.Whatisneededisagainan“understandembrace-adapt〞approach，wherethecompetingdemandsof“reducerework/improvequality〞and“improvesafety〞areconsideredcomplementary.Reworkreductionisthusallaboutattendingtocompetingdemandsatthesametime，thoughthereisaneedtobalanceresourceallocation.

Q5.Howdoyoudefineprojectsuccess？

LavagnonIka：

Successisadauntingword.Whilenothingsucceedslikesuccessandeverypractitionerseemstorecognizesuccesswhentheyseeit，itremainsaverydifficultnotiontodefineforscholars.

Insimpleterms，Iwouldsuggestprojectsuccessistheformalandsharedgoaltowardswhichprojectmanagementteamswork，atleastasdescribedintheprojectcharterorplan.Butthedevilisinthedetail.Andcontext，timeandstakeholderexpectationsmatter.

Firstly，successisnotjusttheoppositeoffailure.Youmaywinsuccessoutoffailureifyoulearnfromit.Forinstance，hadMicrosoftnotfailedwithLotus1，2，3，theywouldlikelynothavecomeupwiththegreatExcelspreadsheets.Andyoumayfailbecauseyouhavebeenverysuccessfulandcomplacent.Secondly，contextmattersinthat，asthevaccinationrolloutsuggests，whatworksintheUSmightnotworkinCanada.Thirdly，youmaynotwinsuccessinallaspectsoftheproject，nottomentiondeliverallstakeholderexpectations.Forexample，theA380aircraftwasatechnicalsuccessforengineersbutastrategicfailureforitsfunders.Fourthly，thereare“success-failure〞and“failure-success〞projects.Whatappearsasuccessintheshortrunintermsoftheoldtriangleof“time，cost，quality〞mightturnintoabusinessdisasterinthelongrun.ThisisthecaseofprojectssuchasGoogleGlassorEuroDisneywhichendupdisappointingstakeholders.Conversely，projectsthatareconsideredafailurejustaftertheirdeliveryhavebecomeresoundingbusinesscasesuccesses.ExamplesincludetheSidneyOperaHouseinAustraliaortheRideauCanalinCanada.Fifthlyandlast，aprojectmightbesuccessfulforitsfundersbutbecomeanightmareforthecommunityorthesocietyasawholeduetoitsnegativesocialandenvironmentalripple-effects.

PartⅢPlanningFallacy

Q6.Youveco-authoredthearticle“MovingbeyondthePlanningFallacy：

Theemergenceofanewprincipleofprojectbehavior〞.Whatdoes“PlanningFallacy〞referto？Howtoavoid“PlanningFallacy〞？

LavagnonIka：

Thisisatopicthatkeepsmeawakethesedays.ConsiderthefiascooftheCanadianfederalgovernmentsPhenixPaySystem，aprojectthatwasdeliveredlateandoverbudgetin2022，withanotoriouslypoorqualityofservice.Thesystemisslatedtobereplaced，totakeintoaccountthe“complexityofthepublicservicepaysystem〞.

Lookingback，suchaprojectmisbehaviormaybeduetothetendencyforpromotersandplanners，atthetimeofdecisionmaking，tounderestimate，deliberatelyornot，theduration，costs，andrisks，andoverestimatethebenefitsandoddsofsuccessoftheproject.Otherdisastrousexamplesincludethe2022GreeceOlympicGames，the2022BrazilWorldCup，TheBostonBigDig，etc.

TheNobelPrizeWinnerDanielKahnemanandhiscolleaguescoinedthistendencyforforecastsofprojectduration，costs，risks，andbenefitstobeclosetobestcase-scenarios，“thePlanningFallacy〞，andithasbeenpopularizedasaresultoftheinfluentialworkofOxfordProfessorBentFlyvbjergandhiscolleaguesonmegaprojects.ThePlanningFallacymaybe“honest〞duetooptimismbiasor“deliberate〞asaresultofstrategicmisrepresentation.Consequently，theseprojectsshouldneverhavebeenstarted，atleastaccordingtoFlyvbjergandassociates.

ThePlanningFallacyisnotjustatheoreticalconcept.Itcomeswithpracticalconsequencesaspublicsectordecisionmakinghasbeencriticallyimpacted.Clearly，strategicmisrepresentationisdifficulttodetectasitrequiresdecisionmakerstoadmittoalie.So，effortshavebeenfocusedondealingwithoptimismbias.Tocurboptimismbias，manygovernmentsnowrequirethattheirprojectcostestimatesbede-biasedwithan“optimismbias〞uplift，basedona“ReferenceClassForecasting〞，ariskmanagementtoolthatconsidersthecostestimationofsimilarbutpastprojects.

AsimpactfulasthePlanningFallacyisinprojectmanagementnowadays，itappearsexaggerated，especiallyinthefaceofcomplexityanduncertainty.Indeed，asmylatestresearchonadatasetofover3，000large-scaleWorldBank-fundedprojectsshows，optimismbiasmightexplainatbest25%ofprojectunderperformance.Inotherwords，75%ofprojectunderperformancemightbeexplainedbyotherfactorssuchasscopechanges，complexityanduncertainty.Worse，thePlanningFallacyproffersagloomyviewofprojects，accordingtowhichtheyareboundtofailevenbeforetheygetstarted.

PartⅣSharedLeadership

Q7.Whatisyourunderstandingof“SharedLeadership〞？Willitbecomeanewnorm？

LavagnonIka：

Inthefaceofcomplexityanduncertainty，wecannotreduceleadershipanymoretosnapshotimagesofastrong，heroic，omnipotentprojectfunder，promoter，owner，sponsorormanagerwiththeirpersonaltraits，styles，actions，andcompetencies.Thisisakintosuperficialsimplicity.Onceagain，weneedprofoundsimplicity.Sharedleadershipbetweendifferentstakeholdersatdifferentlevelsprovidesawinningapproach.Leadership，bothverticalandhorizontal，canmakeagreatdifference.Sharedleadershipshouldbecomeanormtodealwithgrandchallengessuchasglobalpovertyreductionandclimatechangeandotherpandemics，whicharebyessencecollaborative，multiorganizational，world-scaleefforts.

PartVPhilosophyandProject

Q8.Youvewrittenaboutthemetaphysicalquestionseveryprojectpractitionershouldask.Sotobebrief，whatarethequestions？Whyaretheyimportant？

LavagnonIka：

Yes，agreattopic.Ihavealwaysbeenfascinatedbyphilosophy.SoIask：

Istheprojectreallywhatitlookslike？Isthereanydifferencebetweenwhatitseemstobeandwhatitreallyis？Andwhatisthemostrealintheproject？

Thesearemetaphysicalquestionswhichmayhelpusavoidtakingtheforestforthetrees，andthusgobeyondthemultipleformsoftheprojectsphysicalrealities（likethescreenofaniPhone）asweperceivethem，andconsidertheprojectsmetaphysics.Inawaysimilartophilosopherswhentheyponderaboutthenatureofreality，Iprofferthatthemetaphysicalpositionofprojectmanagersisnotjustlimitedto“theiropinion〞butitprovidesthefoundationofeverythingtheydointheproject.

Whatisthebargain？Ifprojectmanagerstrytouncoverwhatliesbeneaththeproject，thentheywillrealizethattwoapparentlydistinctyetcomplementarymindsetsintheunderstandingofprojectsandprojectmanagementprevail：

1）thing-basedunderstanding；

and2）processbasedunderstanding.

Firstly，projectsmayfundamentallybeseenasaconstellationof“things〞.Projectmanagersmayhenceviewplanningastheessenceofprojectmanagement，whichisallaboutthelife-cyclemanagementoftheproject.Thus，aplannedprojectmanagementstyleprevails.

Secondly，projectsmayinsteadbeaconstellationofprocesseswhichultimatelyemerges，flows，develops，grows，andchangesovertime.Inthisinstance，theprocessof“managing〞takescontrolandtheessenceofprojectmanagementshiftstounderstandingtheemergingcontextfromboththeprojectteamandstakeholderpointsofview.Thus，anemergentprojectmanagementstyledominatesandchance，happenstance，andunintendedconsequencesshapeprojectsuccessorfailure.

PartVIResults-BasedManagement

Q9.About“Results-BasedManagement（RBM）orTrap〞，whydidyousayResults-BasedManagementcanbeatrap？

LavagnonIka：

Results-BasedManagementemergedinthe1990sasaphilosophytohelpdeliveroutcomes.RBMseekstolookbeyondinputs，activitiesandoutputsandputsasheerfocusonachievingresultsoroutcomes.

ItsintellectualbasisliesintheNewPublicManagement（NPM），aphilosophythathasbeenbehindthewaveofeffortsandreformstoimprovepublicservicedeliveryintheUKandtheUS，forexample，sincethe1980s.NPMcelebratestheshiftfromanadministrativeorcomplianceculturewhereadherencetorulesandprocedures，thoughimportant，isnotsufficienttodeliveroutcomes，toamanagerialorperformanceculture，wheretheoverarchingfocusrestsonachievingplannedoutcomes.Theunderlyingideaisthatmoremarketorientationinthepublicsectorwillleadtogreatercost-efficiencyforgovernments，withouthavingnegativesideeffectsonothersocio-politicalconsiderations.

Asyoucansee，thiswaswaybeforetheadventoftheBenefitsRealizationMovementthatweareenjoyingintheprojectmanagementfieldnowadays.

RBMcommendsalinearapproachtoprojectmanagementwithadominant“planyourworkandworkyourplan〞philosophy.RBMfocusesontwokeyfunctions：

managingforresultsandtrackingresults.RBMusesthreetools：

thelogicalframework，theperformancemanagementframework，andtheriskregister.Notsurprisingly，whatRBMdoesbestistrackingresultsattheexpenseofmanagingforresults：

toomuchemphasisonproceduresandguidelinesastheneedformonitoringandevaluationoverridestheneedtoactuallymakeprogresstowardsachievingprojectoutcomes.Thekeyperformanceindicators（KPIs）attimesareakinto“smilingsheets〞，frompresumably“happy〞stakeholdersorend-usersabouttheproject.Thereisnotthesamelevelofincentivefordeliveringoutcomes，andprojectmanagerslackthetoolstheyneedforusingprojectperformancedatatomakedecisionsthatwillaffectbenefitsrealization.ThisistheResults-BasedTraporwhatIcalledelsewherethe“accountability-for-results〞trap.

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