尼尔森中国消费者信心指数及消费趋势解读报告2013Q4

1、中国消费者信心指数及消费趋势解读报告2013年第四季度Chinese Consumer Confidence Index & Consumption Trend 2013 Q42014年2月19日发布Published on Feb 19, 20142013年中国经济稳中有升，但与2012年相比经济增长呈放缓趋势Chinas economy grew steadily in 2013, but the growth rate slowed moderately compared with 2012国内生产总值对比去年同期增幅 GDP Growth vs. YA 数据来源：中国国家统计局,Sou

2、rce: National Bureau of Statistics of China 国内生产总值行业构成和占比年度变化 (百分比点)GDP Composition by Industry & YOY Change (% point) 46.1%Tertiary43.9%Secondary-1.4%+1.5%Share Point VS. 2012占比重要性差距同比2012-4.7%+6%第三产业第二产业处于经济转型期的中国，经济发展将更为注重效益和质量Amid the transition period, chinas sustainable growth depends more on

3、effectiveness and quality全年万元国内生产总值能耗比与2012年相比 Energy Consumption Rate every 10 Thousand of GDP Value (2013 FY vs. 2012 FY)-3.7%产业结构变化Industry Structure Change产业效益提升Effectiveness enhancementShare Point VS. 2008占比重要性差距同比2008数据来源：中国国家统计局 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 大多数零售行业受整体经济增速趋缓影

4、响均有不同幅度的增速下滑in 2013, most retail industries were impacted by the economy and showed slower growth 2013年中国社会消费品各品类零售总额对比去年同期增幅(年度) 2013 China Retail Sales Growth by Category vs. YA(MAT) 数据来源：中国国家统计局, Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 10%尼尔森全国快速消费品零售总额年度增长率%，更新至2013年12月（同比） Nielsen Nation

5、al FMCG Sales Value MAT Growth vs. Year Ago, Updated to Dec 2013尼尔森监测数据也显示快速消费品零售业持续放缓According to Nielsen tracking, FMCG Sales kept slowing down to single digit growth FMCG7%Food6%Non-Food7%FMCG15%Food14%Non-Food16%滚动年度MAT Dec 2013 快速消费品整体食品非食品滚动年度MAT Dec 2012 数据来源：尼尔森零售研究 (实体渠道，母体范围据尼尔森定义)Data sou

6、rce: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service (Offline Retail Sales，Universe based upon Nielsen definition)全国尼尔森快速消费品零售品类滚动年度增长率(柱形图顶部)和品类金额占比(% 柱形图底部)(2013年12月同比)Nielsen National FMCG Sales Value MAT Growth vs. Year Ago (Top of bars) & Category Val Sales Importance % vs. Total FMCG Sales (%, Bottom of ba

7、rs) (MAT Dec 2013) 食品Food非食品 Non Food品类金额占整体快速消费品比例(柱形图底部)Value Share vs. Total FMCG Sale Value2.52.81.00.23.13.90.21.51.50.8功能饮品即用型面膜 亚洲传统饮料包装水洁面后调养水避孕套巧克力唇膏酱油蚝油护肤用品但在社会整体消费放缓的趋势下，一些品类仍然维持高速增长。Despite the slowdown of total consumption growth, some categories maintained robust growth.P5RMS data to d

8、ouble check数据来源：尼尔森零售研究 (实体渠道，母体范围据尼尔森定义)Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service (Offline Retail Sales，Universe based upon Nielsen definition)Data owner: Dennis Ding, RSU, SH2013社会消费结构在一些品类发生显著变化：高端消费降温，但与之相反，大众消费持续稳定增长The consumption structure evolved in some categories in 2013: high-end co

9、nsumption slowed while Mass consumption rose 大排量汽车（3.0以上）Engine Power ( 3.0L)*YTD Jan 2013 - Nov, 20132013年1月到11月1.0-1.6升汽车Engine Power (1.0-1.6L)数据来源：中国国家商务部， 中国汽车工业协会 Source: Ministry of Commerce of China， China Association of Automobile Manufacture (CAAM)21.4%-20.7%13.9%2013年中国汽车销量增长率 2013 China

10、Sales Growth of Automobile vs. YA (Volume)整体汽车Total Vehicle+10.8%Growth increase vs. 2012+9.6%Growth increase vs. 2012尼尔森监测的白酒零售数据亦显示相同的转型趋势，大众消费的销售比重上升the Nielsen Retail Index showed a similar trend in Chinese spirit : mass wine increased YOY share importance2013年中国白酒市场22个城市大卖场金额份额%2013 Chinese Spi

11、rit Market Value Share% in Hyper of 22 Cities数据来源：尼尔森零售研究 大卖场扫描数据 (实体渠道，母体范围据尼尔森定义， 22 个城市大卖场)Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service Scan Track (Offline Retail Sales，Universe based upon Nielsen definition， 22 Cities Hyper)40.4%30.9%-5.21300 RMB/Unit大于1300元每瓶 300 RMB/Unit小于300元每瓶+3Share gap

12、vs. 2012与2012年相比份额变化Share gap vs. 2012与2012年相比份额变化消费者信心指数Consumer Confidence Index中国消费者的信心指数仍保持强劲增长，再创新高，第四季度达到五年来最高点with the growth of mass consumption, Chinese consumers confidence reached a historic high in Q4数据来源：中国消费者信心调查Source: China Consumer Confidence Survey全球平均美国中国94消费者信心指数Consumer Confiden

13、ce Index全球平均美国中国中国消费者的信心指数仍保持强劲增长，再创新高，第四季度达到五年来最高点with the growth of mass consumption, Chinese consumers confidence reached a historic high in Q4数据来源：中国消费者信心调查Source: China Consumer Confidence SurveyUS全球平均美国中国94消费者信心指数Consumer Confidence Index全球平均美国中国111中国消费者的信心指数仍保持强劲增长，再创新高，第四季度达到五年来最高点with the g

14、rowth of mass consumption, Chinese consumers confidence reached a historic high in Q4数据来源：中国消费者信心调查Source: China Consumer Confidence Survey消费者信心指数构成要素Components of CCI (% Top 2 Boxes)消费者信心指数的高涨来自就业预期回升以及消费意愿持续提高Strong consumers confidence was driven by the rebound of JOB PROSPECTS in q4 and continuo

15、us enhancement in willingness to spend7547P9数据来源：中国消费者信心调查Source: China Consumer Confidence Survey16-60周岁劳动人口数(百万)及占总人口比重Labor Population (Age: 16-60) (Million)919.567.6%937.269.2%20132012制造业持续复苏，带动用人需求上升，整体劳动力人口逐年减少continuous recovery in manufacturing stimulated the overall demand for labor however

16、, labor supply decreased YOY2012-2013年中国制造业采购经理人指数 2012-2013 China Manufacturing PMI50数据来源：中国国家统计局, Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China P10Deleted the decrease figure of labor population2013年中国社会消费品零售总额对比去年同期增长率(红线为月度，蓝色圆圈内为滚动年度全年） 2013 China Retail Sales Growth vs. YA (Red Line : Monthly

17、, Blue Circle: MAT FY) 金银珠宝 Gold and Silver Jewelry家具 Furniture社会消费品零售总额第四季度达到全年高点也印证了消费者消费意愿的提升china Retail sales kept rising and reached its peak in Q4, in line with growing consumer confidence21%25.8%总体Total13.1%数据来源：中国国家统计局 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China HideSteady growth of aver

18、age income人均收入稳定增长Slowing rate of price increase物价上涨趋缓Chinese style shopping carnivals中国式 购物狂欢2013年消费收入稳定增长，物价上涨趋缓，中国式购物狂欢等内外力因素，都刺激消费者消费意愿的持续上扬THE RISE in WILLINGNESS TO SPEND WAS STIMULATED BY the FOLLOWING FACTORS: income growth, slowing rate of price increase, Shopping carnivalsP112013中国城乡个人可支配收

19、入累计同比增长(扣除物价上涨因素)%2013 Disposable Income Growth(Excluding Price Inflation Factors) %城镇居民和农村居民的人均收入保持稳定增长，收入弹性升高Average INCOME OF urban and rural residents continued to grow steadily while income elasticity also increased26955+7.0%8896+9.3%收入弹性指数：GDP每增长为1%, 人均可支配收入相应增长比例Income Elasticity Index： For e

20、very 1% increase in GDP, the rate of proportional increase in disposable income per capita0.760.9120131979-2012 Average1979-2013 平均城镇Urban农村RuralP12数据来源：中国国家统计局Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 消费者未来12个月总体物价水平预期 %Overall Price Prospect2.6%中国居民消费价格指数增幅 China CPI Growth 2.6%2012年2013年两年间物

21、价涨幅稳定，四季度消费者对未来物价预期相对乐观with the steady and relatively low Level of CPI over the past 2 years, consumers expectations on price change are more optimistic数据来源：中国消费者信心调查Source: China Consumer Confidence SurveyP13圣诞节Christmas春节Spring Festival中秋节Mid Autumn Festival情人节Valentines Day七夕Double Seventh Day双十一

22、Nov 11国庆节National Day双十二Dec 12母亲节 MothersDay父亲节Fathers Day劳动节Labors Day线上线下厂商和零售商人为推动一波波中国式购物狂欢，进一步刺激了消费者四季度的消费意愿momentum for Chinese style shopping increased through the year, resulting in booming willingness to spend in Q4第一季度 Q1第二季度 Q2第三季度 Q3第四季度 Q4元旦New Years Day2013年当期快速消费品销售金额占全年比重（黄色数字%）FMCG

23、Sales Val. Importance VS 2013 Full Year22%22%24%32%P14数据来源：尼尔森电子商务零售数据库 (13个快速消费品类 2013), * 红色球体大小不代表实际销售额大小Source: Nielsen E-Commerce Retail Database (13 Nielsen Defined FMCG Categories 2013)， * Red Bubble size does not represent the size of sales .Data owner: Tony Tong Lei, GBSQ1 changed into 22%双

24、旦中国消费者消费信心和意愿的高涨，预示2014将成为大众消费的一年THE RISE OF consumer confidence and WILLINGNESS TO SPEND indicates 2014 is becoming the year of mass consumption!P152014消费者信心指数分城市级别 Consumer Confidence by City Tier积极消极进一步解读2014大众消费年的机会点，从城市级别来看二三线城市消费者信心指数第四季度大幅上扬。Consumer confidence soared in Tier 2 & 3 Cities, su

25、ggesting opportunities for the year of Mass consumption in 2014数据来源：中国消费者信心调查Source: China Consumer Confidence SurveyP16二，三线城市消费者信心指数构成 Components of Consumer Confidence in Tier 2 & 3 Cities (% Top 2 Boxes)二三线消费者的就业预期和消费意愿上升幅度尤为明显Consumer confidence in Tier 2 & 3 Cities rose sharply in employment ex

26、pectation and willingness to spend数据来源：中国消费者信心调查Source: China Consumer Confidence SurveyTier2二线Tier 3三线P17新型城市化将使得我们重新审视中国的城市格局和未来发展方向Modern urbanization will change our vision about Chinas city tier LANDSCAPE and future developmentP18中国城乡构成及基本信息Chinese city/rural introduction数据来源：GDR, ACMR,& 尼尔森研究，

27、国家统计局 (城市数量依据尼尔森定义2013 Q3 City Master)Source: : GDR, ACMR, & Nielsen Research， National Bureau of Statistics ( City Number defined by Nielsen 2013 Q3 City Master)Tier 2二线Tier 3三线Tier 4四线Rural农村4 Cities16 Million HH1 Trillion Income ValueTier 1一线23 Cities38 Million HH2 Trillion Income Value23个城市3800万

28、户家庭2万亿总收入229 Cities75 Million HH3 Trillion Income Value229个城市750万户家庭3万亿总收入1612 Cities86 Million HH3 Trillion Income Value1612个城市860万户家庭3万亿总收入30000 Towns / Township75 Million HH4 Trillion Income Value3万个乡镇750万户家庭4万亿总收入4 Cities16 Million HH1 Trillion Income Value4个城市1600万户家庭1万亿总收入未来的一线城市将从增长潜力巨大的二线和三线

29、城市中应运而生Future Tier 1 cities are emerging out of tier 2 and 3 cities with huge growth potential P18bTier 2二线Tier 3三线Tier 4四线Rural农村4 Cities16 Million HH1 Trillion Income ValueTier 1一线23 Cities38 Million HH2 Trillion Income Value23个城市3800万户家庭2万亿总收入229 Cities75 Million HH3 Trillion Income Value229个城市75

30、00万户家庭3万亿总收入1612 Cities86 Million HH3 Trillion Income Value1612个城市8600万户家庭3万亿总收入30000 Towns / Township75 Million HH4 Trillion Income Value3万个乡镇7500万户家庭4万亿总收入4 Cities16 Million HH1 Trillion Income Value4个城市1600万户家庭1万亿总收入中国城乡构成及基本信息Chinese city/rural introduction数据来源：GDR, ACMR,& 尼尔森研究，国家统计局 (城市数量依据尼尔森

31、定义2013 Q3 City Master)Source: : GDR, ACMR, & Nielsen Research， National Bureau of Statistics ( City Number defined by Nielsen 2013 Q3 City Master)新一线市场将成为中国大众消费增长的新引擎Emerging Tier 1 Cities will become the power house of mass consumption Emerging Tier 1新一线44% FMCG Sales ValImportance+6%尼尔森监测快速消费品二三线城

32、市金额占比及滚动年度增长率 (2013年12月)Tier 2&3 City FMCG Val Importance based on National FMCG Sales as Nielsen defined & Val Growth Rate (Dec 2013 MAT)城市和家庭户数量和总收入City and Household Numbers (2010)Tier 2二线Tier 3三线P19数据来源：GDR, ACMR,& 尼尔森研究，国家统计局 , 尼尔森零售研究(2013年12月, 城市数量依据尼尔森定义2013 Q3 City Master) ,中国消费者信心调查(2013第三

33、季度媒体接触习惯) Source: : GDR, ACMR, & Nielsen Research， National Bureau of Statistics ( City Number defined by Nielsen 2013 Q3 City Master, ( City Number defined by Nielsen 2013 Q3 City Master) , Nielsen Retail Index (Dec 2013), China Consumer Confidence Survey (Media Habit, 2013 Q3)新一线的重要性毋庸置疑，对有些品类来说，发

34、展潜力尤其巨大Emerging Tier 1 cities are increasingly important for certain categories 48%41%尼尔森监测快速消费品二三线城市金额占比及滚动年度增长率 (2013年12月)Tier 2&3 City FMCG Val Importance based on National FMCG Sales as Nielsen defined & Val Growth Rate (Dec 2013 MAT)洁面后调养水Toner酸奶/酸奶饮料Yogurt/Yogurt Drink46%护肤品Skin Moisturizer巧克力

35、Confectionary Chocolate51%增长率Growth16%11%13%11%新一线Emerging Tier 1其他城市级别 Others金额占比Value ImportanceP20Shirley to double check dataData owner: Dennis Ding, RSU, SH数据来源：尼尔森零售研究 (实体渠道，母体范围据尼尔森定义)Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service (Offline Retail Sales，Universe based upon Nielsen definition)

36、一线Tier 1二线Tier 2三线Tier 3四线Tier 4农村Rural2013新开门店占比2013 New Open Store Counts(Modern Trade)过去3个月，网上购物渗透率(%) Online Shopping Incidence in P3M (%)在新一线，实体零售渠道不断完善，而新兴电商渠道也蓬勃发展。in the emerging tier 1 market, Traditional retail channels continued to expand alongside the booming e-commerce channelP21Emergin

37、g Tier 1新一线Emerging Tier 1新一线数据来源：各大零售商 (尼尔森定义)，中国消费者信心调查(2013第三季度媒体接触习惯) Source: : Retailers (Defined by Nielsen), Nielsen Retail Index (Dec 2013), China Consumer Confidence Survey (Media Habit, 2013 Q3)在252个向新一线迈进的二三线城市中，综合考量以下潜质，一些城市将有机会脱颖而出amongst the 252 tier 2 & 3 cities, the cities with a str

38、ong mix of the following five key factors have high potential to emerge as tier 1 Cities庞大的人口基数Massive population 较强的经济基础(地区国民总值)Strong economy (GDP)较高的人均可支配收入High Disposable Income Per Capita发达的快速消费品渠道和快速消费品重要性Mature Modern Trade for FMCG Categories一定规模的零售总额Sizable Retail Sales$Emerging Tier 1新一线数据

39、来源：尼尔森零售研究 位置信息 (母体范围据尼尔森定义) ， 国家统计局Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service - Linx (Universe based upon Nielsen definition)， National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Customs Statistics P22选取一些典型的潜力巨大的“新一线城市”作为范例A case study of three potential “emerging tier 1” CitiesCaseStudy社会消费品零售总额 9

40、00 亿元/ 90 BillionRetail Sales城镇人均可支配收入 5000 RMB/5000元Urban Disposable Income地区生产总值 GDP: 4000亿元/图标/400 Bil /Icon 人口 Population: 300万人/ 3 Million现代通路城市发展指数 10分/ 10 Index PointsModern Trade City Development Index每单位图标代表 Each unit icon represents:重庆 Chongqing苏州 Suzhou西安 Xian数据来源：尼尔森零售研究 位置信息 (母体范围据尼尔森定义

41、) ， 国家统计局Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service - Linx (Universe based upon Nielsen definition)， National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Customs Statistics P23Data owner: William Li, RSU数据来源：中国消费者信心调查Source: China Consumer Confidence Survey最关注事项+ 第二最关注事项 以及健康在不同城市级别排名（黑色小圈） Biggest +

42、2nd biggest concerns & Health Ranking Amid Different Cities (Black Circle)从消费者的关注点来看发展大众消费：健康是大多数城市消费者最为关注的问题。Another opportunity in the year of Mass consumption: Health is the top concern for consumers from most city tiersP24健康Health收入Income消费者关注健康的比例Consumers claim Health Concern (% Top 2 Concerns

43、)新一线消费者对健康的关注度在第四季度进一步大幅增长，首次超越一线消费者Consumers in Emerging Tier 1 cities concerned about health showed substantial growth, exceeding tier 1 consumers for the first timeP25数据来源：中国消费者信心调查Source: China Consumer Confidence Survey+4.4pt那些与健康与功能相关的品类或细分品类保持了快速增长的势头Categories and sub-categories with health

44、& wellness concept maintained robust growth in 2014P26数据来源：尼尔森零售研究 (实体渠道，母体范围据尼尔森定义), 更新至2013年12月Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service (Offline Retail Sales，Universe based upon Nielsen definition)， updated to Dec 2013.销售金额滚动年度增长率MAT Value Growth销售金额占比Value ImportanceCaseStudy雪梨汁：中国传统食疗养生概念

45、仍然可以为健康创新提供素材Chinese Traditional Health & Wellness Concept as well as the Chinese Food Recipe treatment can provide elements for product/category innovation乳制品类：脂肪量越低，增长越快 中国消费者对健康的追求业已越来越接受西方的健康理念Chinese consumers are more accepting of western health concepts compared to the past, such as in the dairy category: the lower the fat, the higher the value growth.21金额增长率Val. Gr