中国推动下的亚洲经济（宏观）

1、By: Frederic Neumann and Qu HongbinEconomicsQ2 HYPERLINK / Asian EconomicsWith a boost from Chinaatax Play video with Frederic Neumann& report be part Executive summaryBit of a stumble. After holding up well for most of 2018, activity in much of Asia has started to sag last quarter. Exports are part

2、ly to blame, and not because of the US-China trade tensions: the global industrial cycle is slipping and the demand for has weakened The good news, is that The one, a a More potently, China beat expectations and unveiled a punchy tax a way to in quarters, and thereby put a floor regional trade. Ther

3、e is, it seems, still some gas left in the tank.Now for the bigger pictureIt was a bumpy ride last year, admittedly. Three big shadows suddenly emerged over the global a in emerging markets sensitive to in trade betweentheUSandChinariskedputtingadentinexports,whileraisinggreaterquestionsabout the fu

4、ture shape of the world economy. And by mid-year, China, long the global growth engine, started to sputter, adding to the worries for investors. Dark, darkshadows.At is to a this year, relieving pressure on hard-pressed borrowers. Signs of a truce between China and the US a by if at has stepped up e

5、fforts to shore up growth, from tax cuts to a marginal loosening of the monetary reins. Take out the sun lotion, then, and head to the beach?Not quite. As HSBCs Global Chief Economist Janet Henry and her colleague James Pomeroy explain in a recent report (see HYPERLINK /R/10/BGkssVryKWtu Poised for

6、slower growth, 25 March), there are broader, structural that to industrial cycle remains from poor demand for electronics to automobiles, posing headwinds for exports, including in Asia. The in is will also have only a limited effect on reviving growth.a considerable stimulus. As HSBCs Chief China E

7、conomist, Qu Hongbin, estimates, the tax cuts alone amount to over 2% of GDP, possibly raising growth by 0.5ppt over the coming quarter. To be sure, remain, that a sharper in a drag on the same time, China deep fiscal shore up should it weaken further. Consensus, in short, has become too bearish on

8、China. And stronger Mainland growthshouldhelptoputafloorregionaltrade,Asiasmoredependent economies. That includes Hong Kong, where growth, though down from 2018, should still beat by a challengethere.Japan is exposed to weaker exports as well, but local demand should help prop up demand for thetimea

9、nexpectedtaxhikeinOctoberleadingtoofincoming two quarters before the inevitable pay-back (which may trigger a recession heading into 2020). Korea, buffeted by the tech slowdown as well, is enjoying a little extra fiscal kick, though not enough to prevent a marginal deceleration from lastyear.is grap

10、pling a housing But job remains in may to is a enough to hold up growth.itaThe national elections will be key in determining the reform path, so critical to put the current lift ingrowthonasustainedfooting.SriLanka,meanwhile,continuestoploughthroughastructural adjustment,thoughgrowthmaytickupthisyea

11、rfromlastyearslow.Bangladesh,bycontrast,is still on a roll, with growth possibly topping 8% this fiscal year ending inJune.ASEAN, broadly, has been remarkably resilient. Despite the turbulence in financial markets last year, growth has been holding up. In Indonesia and the Philippines, rate hikes ha

12、ve barely put a dent in demand. In the former, following the upcoming national elections, investment may pick up in spending the elections in have passed. Vietnam, and Thailand are a even if a is in new even as it exposed to the vagaries of the global trade cycle.HSBC GDP growth forecasts (%, red de

13、notes above consensus, grey below consensus)2019f2019f2019f2020f2020f2020f20172018(old)(new)Consensus(old)(new) Australia2.42.8NewZealand3.12.8Bangladesh*7.98.1China6.86.6HongKong3.83.0India*7.27.0Indonesia5.15.2Japan1.90.8Korea3.12.7Malaysia5.94.7Philippines6.76.2Singapore3.93.3SriLanka3.43.2Taiwan

14、3.12.6Thailand4.04.1Vietnam6.87.1AsiaexJN6.06.66.05.75.5Asia ex JN& CN5.24.9Asia ex JN CN&IN4.23.8Source: CEIC, Consensus Economics, HSBC: NB: GDP aggregates use chain nominal GDP (USD) weights; old forecasts refers to those published in Asian Economics Quarterly: brace, brace, 4 January 20

15、18; *refers to fiscal yearContents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Executivesummary1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Keyforecasts4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Monetarypolicyassumptions5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Creakin6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 China easing: its all about the HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 private sector22 HYPERLINK

16、l _bookmark5 Indicators27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 GDP28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Inflation29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 & HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Consumption &saving31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Investment32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Trade33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Economyprofiles35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Austr

17、alia36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Bangladesh40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 China44 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Hong Kong48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 India52 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Indonesia56 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Japan60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 64 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Malaysia68 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 72

18、 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Philippines76 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Singapore80 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 SriLanka84 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Taiwan88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Thailand92 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Vietnam96 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 Disclosureappendix102 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Disclaimer104Key f

19、orecasts%y-o-yAsiaAverageAUCHBAHKINIDJNKRMANZPHSISLTATHVNReal GDP%20174.86.820184.33.07.04.17.12019f3.56.62020f4.02.8Real Private consumption20175.07.711.07.45.04.9-6.47.420185.03.82.04.65.52019f1.64.02020f4.52.5Real Fixed investment*20-1.23.02.0-6.410.220183.71.1-14.0-3

20、.83.32019f4.52.5-1.01.07.92020f3.93.7Current account balance* (% of GDP)20172.7 -2.66.01.48.4-8.0-1.86.4-1.03.3-2.97.9-0.72.516.03.8-5.011.05.82.820181.9 -2.10.4-2.94.3-2.3-3.0-3.8-2.417.7-3.32019f1.5 -0.30.3-2.83.2-2.2-2.2-4.0-2.217.7-3.32020f1.4 -0.1CPI (period average)20173.4-1.5-2.23.6-0.53.0-4.

21、31.9-2.42.917.60.6-3.36.620183.71.01.51.03.52019f3.42.00.31.03.12020f3.92.4Policy rate (%, year-end)2017n/a 1.502.04.355.56.752.21.754.06.001.502.33.002.21.753.43.001.20.001.503.66.252018n/a 1.504.356.002.756.506.00-0.101.753.251.754.751.008.001.3751.756.252019fn/a 1.504.356.002.755.755.50-0.101.753

22、.251.754.251.008.001.3751.756.252020fn/a 2.004.356.002.255.754.75-0.101.753.0007.501.3751.756.25Exchange rate (vs. USD, year-end)2017n/a0.786.5382.707.8163.9313548112.7 10714.060.7149.921.34 153.2329.8532.62226982018n/a0.726.8683.907.8369.7914481110.4 11124.140.6552.721.36 182.7130.7332.71231752019f

23、n/a0.666.7586.007.8073.0015000105.0 11604.300.6254.001.38 196.0031.6033.80235502020fn/a0.666.7586.007.8073.0015000105.0 11604.300.6254.001.38 196.0031.6033.8023550*Hong Kong: Current account refers to visible and invisible trade balance only.On a fiscal year basis for India and Bangladesh.On a fisca

24、l year basis for India.Singapore: Slope of SGD NEER band.Note: Australia and New Zealand are not included in the Asia aggregate. Aggregates use chain nominal GDP (USD) weights, except for inflation which uses nominal GDP (PPP) weights for the respective years. 2018, 2019, and 2020 use 2017 weights.

25、FX rates for year-end 2020 are all assumptions and not forecasts. n/a Not Applicable.Source: CEIC, HSBC forecastsGDPCPI%y-o-y%y-o-yAsia ex China, India & Japan averageFcastAsia ex China, India & Japan averageFcastAsia average6644220003 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19f 20f%y-o-y%y-o-y

26、Asia averageFcastAsia averageFcastAsia ex China, India & Japan average776655443322110002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19f 20fSource: CEIC, HSBC forecasts (nominal GDPUSDweights)Source: CEIC, HSBC forecasts (nominal GDP PPPweights)Monetary policy assumptionsMonetary policyPeriod en

27、d %4Q181Q19f2Q19f3Q19f4Q19f1Q20f2Q20f3Q20fAustraliaRBA Cash Targetrate1.501.501.501.501.501.501.751.75BangladeshReporate6.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.00China1 year Base Lendingrate4.354.354.354.354.354.354.354.35HongKongBaseRate2.752.752.752.752.752.752.752.50IndiaReporate6.506.255.755.755.755.755.7

28、55.75Indonesia7-day Reverse Reporate6.006.006.005.755.505.255.004.75JapanOvernight Callrate-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10Korea7-day Reporate1.751.751.751.751.751.751.751.75MalaysiaOvernightrate03.003.00NewZealandRBNZ Cashrate1.751.751.751.751.751.752.002.25PhilippinesReverse Reporate4.754.

29、754.504.5054.25SingaporeSlope of SGD NEERband1.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.00SriLankaReverse Reporate8.008.008.008.008.008.008.007.75TaiwanDiscountrate1.3751.3751.3751.3751.3751.3751.3751.375Thailand1-day Reporate1.751.751.751.751.751.751.751.75VietnamRefinancingrate6.256.256.256.256.256.256.256.25S

30、ource: CEIC, HSBC forecastsHeadline inflation%y-o-yTarget*4Q181Q19f2Q19f3Q19f4Q19f1Q20f2Q20f3Q20fAustraliaBangladesh2.0 to3.02.35.5China3.01.82.2Hong KongIndia4.04.04.0Indonesia2.5 to 4.03.83.4Japan2.01.41.4Korea2.02.11.7Malaysia2.5 to 3.50.3-2.0New Zealand1.0 to 3.02.32.1Philippines2.0 to 4.02.93.0

31、Singapore0.5 to Sri LankaMid-single digits3.14.04.03.44.0Taiwan0.70.01.0Thailand1.0 to 4.01.00.8Vietnamless than 4.03.73.5Note: Australia and New Zealand data are published with quarterly frequency. Chinas target is the governments target. Hong Kongs target is the government forecast. Sri Lanka does

32、 not have a specific target number. Inflation targetfor Malaysia is the governments forecast. Taiwans target is the Directorate General of Budgets forecast for 2019. Singapores target is a forecast by the MAS. Japans target is the Bank of Japan core inflation (excluding fresh food) target. Indias in

33、flation target is 4% +/- 2%. Source: Various central banks, CEIC, HSBC forecastsForeign exchange rate2-yr Average4Q181Q19f2Q19f3Q19f4Q19f1Q20f2Q20f3Q20fAustralia0.760.720.690.680.670.660.660.660.66Bangladesh82.2683.9084.5085.0085.5086.0086.0086.0086.00China6.696.866.706.706.756.756.756.756.75Hong Ko

34、ng7.827.837.807.807.807.807.807.807.80India66.8569.7970.0071.0072.0073.0073.0073.0073.00Indonesia13,90614,39014,20014,40014,60015,00015,00015,00015,000Japan111.2110.4108.0108.0105.0105.0105.0105.0105.0Korea1,1091,1121,1301,1401,1501,1601,1601,1601,160Malaysia04.304.304.30New Zealand0.700.650.650.640

35、.630.620.620.620.62Philippines51.8052.7252.5053.0053.5054.0054.0054.0054.00Singapore1.361.361.361.361.371.381.381.381.38Sri Lanka159.62182.71185.00189.00193.00196.00196.00196.00196.00Taiwan30.2330.7330.8031.0031.2031.6031.6031.6031.60Thailand32.9632.7132.0032.5033.0033.8033.8033.8033.80Vietnam22,901

36、23,17523,20023,35023,45023,55023,55023,55023,550Source: Bloomberg, HSBC forecasts. Note: 3Q20 FX numbers are assumptions, not forecasts.CreakinSlowing exports, reflecting a weakening global industrial cycle and cooling demand for electronics, pose stiff headwinds for theregiona in should put a floor

37、 under regional trade, arresting the slide ingrowthWith the Fed on hold and inflation subdued, there is scope forlimited rate cuts in Asia, with the fiscal stance turning more supportive,tooFrederic Neumann EconomistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:fredericneuma

38、nn.hk fredericneumann.hk+852 2822 4556Abanti Bhaumik Associate BangaloreLosing momentuma in late. Itd be easy to put this solely to rising trade the US and China, which prompted tariffs on billions and billions worth of goods. And the associated uncertainties certainly played a role. But Asias slowd

39、own cuts deeper than that, suggesting that a trade truce, possibly in in a in Amongtheheadwindsareabroaderdecelerationintrade,reflectingbothwobblyglobalindustrial also Janet Henry and James Pomeroy, HYPERLINK /R/20/BGkssVryKWtu Poised for slower growth, 25 March, 2019). In addition,localdemandhasina

40、ofChinaintotighter financial conditions a of this year, some of these headwinds are likely to fade. However, the resultant boost to growth may only unfold gradually, and prove relativelyshallow.1 in a in Chart 1: Emerging Asia real GDP growth (% y-o-y)14.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.0-2.0Mar-00Mar-02Mar-0

41、4Mar-06Mar-08Mar-10Mar-12Mar-14Mar-16AsiaexJNAsia ex JNCHSource: CEIC, HSBC; NB: nominal GDP weighted averagesChart 2: Real GDP growth (% y-o-y)876543210AUNZJNCHHKINIDKRMAPHSISLTATHVNQ1-Q32018average4Q 2018Source: CEIC, HSBC HYPERLINK /R/10/PxQDxxVyKWtu 22 to a it in A a 2 in in a Australia, Japan,

42、Hong Kong, India, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Taiwan. Given its size, a as things picked up in Vietnam and Korea (though the latter was flattered by an inventory bounce).Export stumbleFalteringtradeispartlytoblame.Afterpeakinginthe2018,rapidlyslowed across the region (Chart 3). This coincide

43、s with the escalation of trade tensions between the US in on hascooled.FortoEurope,bynewtariffs,haveevenmorethanthosetotheUS.Inaddition,exportsfromtherestoftheregiontoChina,anever moreimportantmarketinitsright,urn,reflectstheChart 3: Emerging Asia export growth (% y-o-y, 3mma)50403020100-10-20-30Jan

44、-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 weightedaveragesimpleaverageSource: CEIC, HSBCChart 4: Nominal export growth151050-5-10AUNZJNCHHKINIDKRMAPHSISLTATHVN2018 average,%y-o-yLatest, % y-o-y3mmaSource: HSBC, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBCini

45、f by bank financing as depressed spending because of uncertainties surrounding the US-China trade tensions.Chart4showstheexportperformanceofindividualeconomiesintheregion.Mostmarketssawa sharpcontractioninshipmentsatthestartof2019,furthersuggestingthattradeisfacingbroader is as in the use of less po

46、lluting raw materials (see Paul Bloxham, HYPERLINK /R/10/wgnvgWbyKWtu Commodity tailwind is stillblowing,32019).SriLankaalsohelditsliftedinpartamorecompetitiverate.InVietnam,India,andMalaysia,exportgrowthhasalsomanagedtostaypositiveoflate, though it still deceleratedsharply.arefewsignsthatthecycleis

47、abouttoNewordersinthesectorpointtoadeepeningcontraction(Chart5).Notethatthedeclineisnotlimitedtoemerging malaise is broad-based, both geographically andproduct-wise.is have for several months already, with no signs of an imminent uptick. Chart 6, for example, shows the new of a In in in Chart 5: Man

48、ufacturing PMIs new export orders (index)5856545250484644Jan-06Jan-09Jan-12Jan-15EMAsiaDevelopedmarketsChart 6: Global electronics sector PMIs new orders (simple average, index)6260585654525048464442Jan-06Jan-09Jan-12Jan-15Jan-18Source:Markit,HSBCSource: Markit,HSBCChart 7: Koreasemiconductorexports

49、Chart 8: US semiconductor equip.billings0% y-o-y0% y-o-y, 3mma201320142015201620172018SemiconductorexportsVolumesJan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17Source:CEIC,HSBCSource: CEIC,HSBCIn addition, smartphone saturation has hit demand for semiconductors and components. Here, a newto5Goffmay notful

50、lypunchthroughtoAsianexportvolumesuntiltheendof2019,ifnotlater.Within electronics, semiconductors play an especially important role in driving trade across the region. Its important to note, therefore, that the fall in the price of chips exaggerates somewhat thedropinunderlingvolumes.Chart7,forexamp

51、le,showsthatthefallinKoreansemiconductor exportsreflectsprimarilyaplungeinprices,withshipmentvolumescontractingonlyslightly.Still, such swings in the cost of semiconductors are important: not only do they affect profitability, but asharpdeclinecanalsocurtailinvestmentinthesector.Infact,thegrowthinUS

52、semiconductor equipment billings has dipped to a multi-year low (Chart8).Waiting for that China kickApart from a rebound in electronics, and a broader pick-up in developed markets, a recovery in Chinabeessentialforaacrosstheregion.AsChiefChinaeconomist,Qu in a tax effective 1 should a long lifting o

53、ver the coming quarters. matters greatly for the rest of the region, which is becoming more and more exposed to demand from the Mainland. Chart 9, for example, shows the change over the past decade in the share of exports in local GDP headed to China. Note the substantial rise in exposure in Austral

54、ia, Japan, New by oftoinaChart 9: Exports to China (% of local GDP)181614121086420AUTAINIDJNKRMANZPHSISLTH2005-072015-17Source: CEIC, HSBCChart 10: Exports by destination (% of local GDP, latest)20181614121086420AUCHTAINIDJNKRMANZPHSISLTHVNUSEurozoneChinaSource: CEIC, HSBCTo put this in perspective,

55、 take a look at Chart 10. This shows the current share in local GDP of exportsheadingtotheUS,theEurozone,andChina.TheMainlandranksnumberone,andoften byamargin,inAustralia,Indonesia,NewZealand,Singapore,and US only leads in India, Japan (barely), Sri Lanka, andVietnam.There is, of course, a complicat

56、ion here: supply chain trading obscures the underlying exposure to local demand. For instance, components may be shipped from Korea or Thailand to China for further assembly and onward shipment to the United States. In this case, Koreas and exposureremainswithAmericanbuyers,ratherthanwithChina.Strip

57、pingoutthiseffectistricky, as no exact data exists of the share of transhipments via China (Trade in Value Added, or datapublishedbytheOECDprovidesusefulestimates,butthesecomeoutwithalagandrelyon national input-output tables which may not always be veryreliable).of or in tootherdestinations,haslikel

58、yincreasedsubstantiallyinrecentyears.ThatmeansthatMainland demand is an ever more potent driver of the regional trade cycle. Lets delve deeper intothis.To start with, Chart 11 shows the share of processing imports in total Chinese imports. Though notperfect,thesemaybeasaforgoodsthatareusedintheforIn

59、 the late 1990s, over half of Chinas imports where goods for processing. In the 2000s, the share it is now a of Chart 11: China processing imports (% of total imports)555045403530252015Mar-93 Mar-98 Mar-03 Mar-08 Mar-13 Mar-18Chart 12: China non-commodity imports (USD bn)400350300250200150100500Sep-

60、98Sep-03Sep-08Sep-13Sep-18Source:CEIC,HSBCSource: CEIC,HSBCChart 13: Export correlations: shipments to China vs. Chinese shipments to the US1.00.0IN*JNNZIDPHAUTHTAMASIKRVN2013-20182003-2008Source: CEIC, HSBC; NB: *only from October 2006interestingly, steadied in the middle of this decade, when regio