政经专业资格考下讲义

1、ABriefofNewNeoclassicalRationalRealBusinessABriefofNewNeoclassicalRationalRealBusinessNewNewFormally adopts the rational expecionsgeneralequilibriumframework,atthesame time maains the Keynesian features by aming imperfect competition as well as price and espelly wage stickiness New Neoclassical(-Key

2、nesian) SynthesisKydlandandPrescott:Businesscyclesdrivenbytechnologyshocks,builtonthe flexible-price amption and omitting any role of monetary policyOver time, the emphasis switched from identifying business cycle driving for)to methodological contributions: macro ms with micro foundations and ratio

3、nal ions DSGE frameworkLucas: Mainstream Keynesian ms useless for policyysisfortheyfailedtotake ions seriously (Lucas critique, Lucas, 1976)Lucas: If priare flexible, monetary policies matters only to the extentsurprises the market (Lucas, 1973)SargentandWallace:Systematicmonetarypoliciesaimedatstab

4、ilizingtheeconomy doomed to failuresince no way to fool the market systematicallyFriedman:Permanentehypothesis,underminingKeynesianconsumptionfunction and therefore fiscal multiprFriedmanandSchwartz:Economicinstabilityattributedtoineptmonetarypoliciesin contrast to the Keynesian animal spirits story

5、, calling for simple policy rulesFrideman:Nolong-runPhillipstrade-off,heshortrunduetomoneySolow:Long-rungrowthdrivenbytechnologicalKeynes:Nominalrigidities,insufficientaggregatedemand,discretionarypolicies Hicks, Modigliani: IS-LM-(PC) mfor classroom teachingKlein:LargesbroughttodataandusedforChen,Y

6、i:Theinnerloticofthedevelopmentof战主使用大型reduced-form模型进行Chen,Yi:Theinnerloticofthedevelopmentof战主使用大型reduced-form模型进行政策分理性了式政策分析方法的合理政策分析必须预期的内生性和模型的微观基真实商业周期理论提出了第一代满足理性预期假设、具有严格微观基础的宏观模型，其贡献主要体现在方法上，忽视现实特征，回避模型在严格意义上的经验拟合，提出以校准为基础的定量研究方法，其理论不具有任何政策含义向量自回归模型与早期主使用的）经验宏观模型相比在数据描和等方面取得了巨大进步，至今仍是reduce

7、d-form经验宏观研究新理论接受了真实商业周期理论的方法，但强调不完全竞争和名义刚性等的重要性，重视模型的经验表现，强调理论的政策含义，即便存在结论的稳健性随着计量工具和计算能力的改进，对以模型为代表的DSGE模型进行参数估已，模型的经验表现亦堪比reduced-form模型，但仍具有明显3NewClassicalsvs.NewClassicalsvs.New4Fresh-vs.SaltwaterFresh-vs.Saltwatereconomics,nocleardivide5New6New6acro?Microysisshouldemployswithacro?Microysisshou

8、ldemployswith Thesemakesibleyzebothshort-runfluctuationsandlong-growthwithinasingleconsistenthisrespect,themethodological stanceoftheNewClassicalschool etheNotrefersolelytothelcaseofsofperfectequilibriumwithfullyflexiblewagesand7acro?PuttingstoItisdesirabletoacro?PuttingstoItisdesirabletoiveysisonec

9、onometrically sMethodsforthesticsimulationoftimationofstructurals,andforsunderhypotheticalpolicies,arealpartthemodernmacroeconomiststoolExemplifiedbytheworksofChristiano,EichenbaumandEvans(JPE,SmetsandWouters(AER,Relativelyatheoreticalmethods,suchastheestimationofunrestrictedms,continuetobeimportant

10、and8acro?Itisimportanttoysistoionsasendogenous,acro?Itisimportanttoysistoionsasendogenous,and,inparticular,itlinoaccountthewayinwhichshouldchangeternativepolicy SeewhytherationalionsrevolutionisarevolutionItdoesnot,however,tstabilizationpolicyissarilyOnecannotimpleanswerabouttheeffectsofagivenpolicy

11、 independentofwhethertheactionipatedornot,persistentorandoftheentions of9acro?RealbusinessRealareanacro?RealbusinessRealareanimportantsourceofeconomicfluctuations;tfluctuationscanbelargelyattributedtoexogenousonetarypolicyhasfew ifanyremainingBut“real”do notmeansolelythe“technology emphasizedbytheRB

12、C Meanwhile,thetpurely monetaryarenotthesourceofbusinessfluctuationsdoesnotttheyare acro?MonetaryMonetarypolicyiseffective,llyasaacro?MonetaryMonetarypolicyiseffective,llyasameansofinflationInfactcentralsdida fairly good he1980sand1990s(knowntheGreatModeration, butfollowedbytheGreatInflationcanbeinf

13、luencedbyrealfactorsPhillipscurveislevel of pritmonetarypolicy istheultimatedeterminateofdoesntsarilyt aredetermined bytyofmoney,tinflationcontrolneedsmoneysupplyScientistsexplorehowtheworldworks,engineerssolveScientistsexplorehowtheworldworks,engineerssolveMiw(JEP,2006):macrowasbornnotasasciencebut

14、asanengineering; macroeconomistsofthepastseveraldecadeshave beenerestedytictoolsandestablishingtheoreticalprinciples;however,toolsandprincipleshavebeenslow to findtheiro erestinglybutnotsurprisingly,(New)Keynesiansweremorelikelyenwerethosehe NewClassicalMiw(JEP,2006):neitherscientistsnorengineershav

15、eaclaimtogreatertheworldneedsmacroeconomistsofbothDebatesonthecurrenteofKrugman(2009)HowdideconomistsDebatesonthecurrenteofKrugman(2009)Howdideconomistsgetitso-MacroeconomistsareblindtoheoriesandfrictionsinKeynesiantheoryisstillthebestonetounderstandMacroeconomistsmistakebeautyfortruth(toosandsCochr

16、ane(2009)How didKrugmangetitso-Prettymuchallwehavengfor30yearsroducingflawsand-EinsteinrevisedNewton,but diddusbacktoveenough-TherealproblemtweSolowetal.(2010),Solow(JEP,-ObjecttoDSGEChen,Yi:Some批评是廉价的，批评Chen,Yi:Some批评是廉价的，批评应建立在理解的基础上，批评须有建设性：替代方案是什辩证数学的使用：定量政策研究只能依赖于结构性模型（无论是政策效果评还是最优政策分析），而结构必须在重

17、要的方面接近现实，正是现实的复杂性决定了数学的大量使用；换言之数理方法其实是内生的决定于宏观经济学的研究对象，舍此无路可走；批评宏观经济学脱离实际数学事实上是！不应该学习主流理论；不适用softhemainstreamCreditandlmarkets,importanceofsofthemainstreamCreditandlmarkets,importanceoflUnemployment,importanceoflabor-marketGoodsmarketsandMacroeconomiceffectsofassetpleteinformation,asymmetricinformat

18、ion,rational Bounded Chen,YisthoughtsonMsay,insomesituationsthebestway,toexpressingChen,YisthoughtsonMsay,insomesituationsthebestway,toexpressingMscomparative(a) makingcausalityclear(makingt“then”reallyfollows(b) MMsareywrong,anberelativelysaretobe used, not HenriTheil,Principles ofEssentially,allsarewrong, butsomearethepracticalquestionishowwrongdo theyhavetobetonotbe eE.P.Box,Empirical-BuildingandResponseItist thebiggerthesare,theBlanchard(2008)TheeBlanchard(2008)TheeofChariandKehoe(JEP,2006)Modernma