马来西亚市场策略：马来西亚消费者目前的心态是什 么

1、GlobalResearch8 February2019Malaysia Market Strategy Equity Strategy MalaysiaNicole Goh HYPERLINK mailto:nicole.goh +603-27811133Jian Equity Strategy MalaysiaNicole Goh HYPERLINK mailto:nicole.goh +603-27811133JianBoGan,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:jian-bo.gan +603-27811111Chris Oh,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:chri

2、s.oh +603-27811128Will the Malaysian consumer start spending in the near term?The new government has been in office six months and after the initial honeymoon period, UBS Evidence Lab launches the findings of its inaugural survey of 1,545 Malaysianconsumers.Thesurveyseeksanswerstothreekeyquestions:1

3、)whatisthe current consumer mindset and spending intentions; 2) what is the state of their financial health; and 3) where would they spend their money, if they had more of it. Although the governments aim is to reduce cost of living pressures, we note that private consumption and retail spending gro

4、wth remained almost flat in 2018. With household debt to GDP at 84%, the general perception is that Malaysians spending powerisconstrained.Wethinksomeconsumerstocksareaheadofexpectationsand are pricing in a strong recovery in consumerspending.Consumers remain very positive, but actual wallet may be

5、constrainedOf the respondents, over half believe that domestic economic conditions will improve (61%) and their household incomes would increase (52%) over the next 12 months. Lessthan30%arecompletelyopposedtothegovernmentsplantoreduceBSH/BR1M (cost of living supplement payments) payouts, even among

6、 recipients who make up 48% of total respondents. However, the actual state of the consumer wallet may be relatively constrained: only 22% of respondents said that their total spending is well below household income while 13% still spend above household income. Of the BSH recipients;37%/36%believeth

7、eywouldneedtoreducelivingexpenses/findadditional income once the payouts are reduced.What would Malaysian consumers buy if they had more money?We think consumers will spend money on discretionary items: 29%/23% of respondents agreed with the statements that it is important to enjoy life when young r

8、ater tan ave meyt is fie to take t las to ffil ter ream. n te ext 12months,mostrespondentssaytheywanttovacationathomeandabroad,purchase consumerelectronicsandhomeappliances,andsubscribe/renewbroadband/internet connections.Althoughconsumersarelesslikelytobuypropertyandpassengercarsin the near future,

9、 the majority deem car and property ownership as necessities. The surveyresultswererelativelymorenegativeforQSRsandgaming.We prefer consumer stocks that have not run ahead of expectationsWe prefer stocks with lower valuations and limited policy risks. Our most preferred large-cap stocks are Sime Dar

10、by, UMW, Genting and BAT. Our least preferred are Genting Malaysia and SP Setia.Figure 1: Most and least preferred stocksReutersYearSPPTUpsideMkt capDaily T/OCY* PE (x)P/BV (x)ROECodeRatingend(RM)(RM)(downside)(US$ m)(US$ m)19E20E19E20E19EMost preferredSime DarbySIME.KLBuyJun2.223.2044.1%3,7074.915.

11、814.11.0 x1.0 x6.7%UMWUMWS.KLBuyDec5.866.5010.9%1,6812.716.414.31.9x1.7x12.6%BAT (Malaysia)BATO.KLNeutralDec38.0038.401.1%2,6642.320.119.427.8x27.0 x140.7%GentingGENT.KLNeutralDec7.127.00-1.7%6,6889.9x0.7x7.3%LeastpreferredGenting MalaysiaRWBW.KLSellDec3.332.80-15.9%4,64416.016.013.80.9x0.9x6.5%SP S

12、etiaSETI.KLSellDec2.601.70-34.6%2,4841.227.324.50.9x0.9x3.7%Prices as of 7 February 2019. * Calendarised. Source: Reuters, UBS estimates HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES B

13、EGIN ON PAGE 31. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in m

14、aking their investment decision.Malaysia Market StrategyUBSResearchTHESISMAPa guide to our thinking and whats where in this report HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 OUR THESIS IN PICTURESMOST FAVOREDLEAST FAVOREDSime Darby Bhd, UMW Holdings, BAT, Genting BhdGenting Malaysia, SP SetiaPIVOTAL QUESTIONSQ: What is

15、 the current mindset of the Malaysian consumer?We think consumer sentiment is high and will remain so, especially in H119 as consumers await clarityonthegovernmentspolicydirectionaswellasinitialexecutionofmeasurestoreducecostof livingpressures.However,theconsumerwalletremainsconstrainedandwebelievei

16、ncomelevels needtogrowbeforeconsumersincreaseactualspending. HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Q: What will consumers spend their money on, if they had more money?Discretionary items. Segments which should recover the fastest are household essential items including food, followed by small discretionary spendin

17、g and eventually larger discretionary items. HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 moreUBS VIEWFeel-good factor still high, but consumers will only spend when they have the money. We thinkconsumersentimentremainshighinMalaysia.However,astheconsumerwalletisgenerally stillconstrained,webelievethattheoutperformanceof

18、theBursaMalaysiaConsumerProductIndex relative to the KLCI indicates the market is overly optimistic about a recovery in actual spending. Shouldarecoverytakeplace,thesectorsthatwillbenefitshouldbediscretionaryitems.EVIDENCEOver half of the UBS Evidence Lab survey respondents believe the economy and t

19、heir household income levels will improve in the next 12 months. However, only 22% said that their expenses are well below their household income. About half of the survey respondents/their households are recipients of government cash payouts; of these respondents, only 17% saidthey will not need to

20、 take measures when the government reduces the payouts. Over half of survey respondents intend to go on holiday and to purchase electronic/household items in the next 12 months.WHATS PRICED IN?Strong recovery in consumer spending in the near-term. The Bursa Malaysia Consumer ProductIndexhasoutperfor

21、medtheKLCIsincethegeneralelectioninMay2018andYTD2019.We believe the market is pricing in a strong recovery in consumer spending in the near-term. HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 moreMost consumers are positive and intend to spend more in the next 12 months70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%ExpectedchangesinPredicted spe

22、ndingonlivingExpectedchangeinMoneysavingvsN12M economicsituationoverexpensesoverN12Mhousehold income overN12MN12MIncrease/BetterDecrease/ WorseSource: UBS Evidence LabMalaysiaMarketStrategyUBS ResearchOURTHESISINPICTURES HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 return 14013012011010090807060Dec-0350Dec-03Consumer sen

23、timent indexDec-04Dec-05Dec-06Dec-18Dec-04Dec-05Dec-06Dec-18ConsumerSentimentIndexBusiness ConditionIndex Note: shaded area are periods beforeelectionPrivate consumption growth (%)15%10%5%0%-5%Private consumption/retail sales still growing at similar rates-10%1968197119741968197119741977198019831986

24、19891992199519982001200420072010201320162019F90%85%80%75%70%65%60%2004200555%20042005The general perception is that Malaysian consumers spending power is relatively constrained as household debt to GDP is 84% as of H118 compared to 75% in 200945%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%TotalHHDebttoGDPTotalHHDebtto

25、HHLiquidAsset2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620171H18Expected changes in economic situation over next2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620171H18 12monthsKey conclusions from the UBS Evidence Lab survey: 1) consumers remain positive about the future with 61% expecting an improvem

26、ent in the economy over the next 12 monthsGet a betterGet a betterStaysameGet a worseGet a worseDont KnowSources for exhibits above: Company data, UBS Evidence Lab, UBS ResearchMalaysiaMarketStrategyUBS ResearchOURTHESISINPICTURES HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 return 35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Household total s

27、pending in relation to incomeBut wallets are relatively constrained: only 22% said their expenses are well below their householdincomeWell household incomeSlightly below household incomeAbout the same as household incomeSlightly above household incomeWell household incomeWould rather not say100%90%8

28、0%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Impact on household finance owing to BR1M payout planned reduction among recipientsTotal RM7K EastWest NonFor recipients of BSH/BR1M in 2018, most said they would need to either cut living expenses or look for additional income if payouts are reducedCentres MarketCentresMont

29、hly Household IncomeGeographyFindanewjob/additionalincomeReducelivingexpensesslightly NoactionWould rather notsayActivities plan to do in the next 12monthsVacation(withincountry) Buy major consumer electronicdevicesBuy major homeappliancesVacation (overseas) Renew broadbandinternetconnection Buyresi

30、dentialpropertytostayBuypassenger Buyresidentialproperty forinvestmentBuya Gaming at (60%) (40%) (20%) 0% 20% 40% 60%Nett: Likely-UnlikelyConsumers want to go on vacation and purchase electronic/household items in the next 12months12011511010510095The Bursa Malaysia Consumer Product Index has outper

31、formed the KLCI since the general election as well as YTDJan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18Jan-1990Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18Jan-19Bursa Malaysia ConsumerProductIndexKLCI Sourcesforexhibitsabove:Companydata,UBSEviden

32、ceLab,UBSResearchMalaysia Market StrategyUBS ResearchPIVOTAL QUESTIONS HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 return Q: What is the current mindset of the Malaysian consumer?UBS VIEWWebelieveconsumersingeneralwillremainoptimisticastheyawaitclarityon the governments policy direction as well as initial execution of m

33、easures to reduce cost of living pressures. However, as the consumer wallet remains constrained,webelieveincomelevelsneedtogrowbeforeconsumersincrease actual spending.EVIDENCETheUBSEvidenceLabsurveyof1,545Malaysianconsumersshowsthat42% are optimistic about the current economic situation compared to

34、12 months ago, and that more consumers (61%) are optimistic about the economic situationoverthenext12months.Despitethemajorityofrespondents(38%) saying that their current household income is about the same as 12 months ago,52%expecthouseholdincometoimproveoverthenext12months;only 29%expectincometore

35、mainthesameand15%expectincometodecline.However,12%ofconsumerssurveyedarelivingbeyondtheirmeansandonly 22% said that they are spending well below their household income. Meanwhile, 39% of respondents said they find managing financially a challengecurrently.About19%ofrespondentsspendmorethan30%oftheir

36、 personal income servicing loans while 27% said that their emergency funds/savings were sufficient to cover only up to two months of typical expenses.Of the 1,545 consumers surveyed, 48% (or someone in their household) received the BSH/BR1M payout in 2018. Although most respondents were aware of the

37、 governments plan to reduce payouts and eventually phase-out the scheme, only 24% completely oppose the reduction. Of those receiving thepayout,37%believethattheywouldneedtoreducetheirlivingexpenses and 36% said they would either need to find a new job or get additional income if the payout is reduc

38、ed.WHATS PRICED IN?With the rerating of consumer stocks, we believe the market is pricing in a strong recovery in consumer spending.PostMalaysiashistoric14th generalelection(GE-14)initialhoneymoonperiod,the UBSEvidenceLabsurveyofMalaysianconsumershasattemptedtoascertaintheir currentmindset,theirinte

39、ntiontospend,andwhattheircurrentfinancialhealthis.Feel-good factor and intention to spend are high even after the initial honeymoon period42% of respondents believe the current economic situation is better than 12 months ago. The proportion of respondents who believe that the economic situation is b

40、etter now is 12ppt higher than the proportion of respondentswho believe that the economic situation is worse. In addition, 61% are optimistic that the economy will improve in the next 12 months with the younger population, those earning between RM3-7,000/month, and those from West Malaysiathemostopt

41、imistic.Theproportionofresponderswhoareoptimistic minus the pessimists is47ppt.Consumers are optimistic about the Malaysian economy over the next 12 monthsFigure 2: More respondents perceive the current economic situation as better than 12 months agoFigure 3: and even more expect the economy to impr

42、ove over the next 12 months25%20%15%10%5%0%TotalMonthly TotalMonthly IncomeAgeNett:Better-Geography55%50%45%40%35%RM7K18 2930 RM7K18 2930 3940 4950 64EastWestMarket Non Market CentresRM7K18 2930 3940 RM7K18 2930 3940 4950 64EastWestMarket Non Market CentresAgeGeographyNett: Better - WorseSource: UBS

43、EvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLab52% of respondents expect an increase in their income in the next 12months compared to only 15% that expect a decrease; 46% of respondents also expect to save more money in the next 12months.Most expect household income levels to rise in the next 12 months; and to s

44、ave moreFigure 4: About 52% of respondents expect an increase in household income over the next 12 monthsFigure 5: More believe they will save moreImproveFallImproveFall35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Up 10%Up 1-10%RemainedthesameDown 1-10%Down 10%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Change in household income vs 12months a

45、goAnticipatedchangeinhouseholdincomeovernext12monthsMuch than nowA little more than nowAbout the sameA littlethan nowMuch less than nowSource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLab45% of respondents are spending more on discretionary purchases now compared to 12 months ago, and 52% of respondents ar

46、e spending more on living expenses now compared to 12 monthsago.despite respondents saying they are spending more on living expenses and discretionary purchases vs. 12 months agoFigure 6: Most respondents are spending more on living expenses and discretionary purchases compared to 12 months ago40%35

47、%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Figure 7: despite most expecting prices to increase in the next 12 months35%30%25%20%15%10%5%Much more AlittlemoreAbout sameAlittlelessMuch0%Increase IncreaseIncreaseatStayFallDiscretionarypurchasesLivingexpensesrapidlythe sameslowerthe sameSource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS Evide

48、nceLab75% of those surveyed think prices will rise in the next 12 months. However, 31%expectconsumerpricestoincreaseataslowerrateinthenext12months while26%expectconsumerpricestoincreaseatthesamerateinthenext12 months.However, their wallets may be relatively constrainedAbout 12% of respondents said t

49、hat they are spending above household income at this point in time, 29% are spending about the same as household income and 31% are spending slightly below household income. Only 22%of respondentssaidthattheywerespendingwellbelowhouseholdincome.More respondents believe that managing financially is m

50、ore challengingnow, especially those whose monthly household income is below RM3,000, those aged 40-49 years and those who reside in West Malaysia. There was a15ppt difference between those respondents who said it was challenging compared to those who disagreed.and price increases in the next 12 mon

51、thsAbout 12% of consumers are living beyond their meansMore respondents said it was challenging to manage financially nowFigure 8: Household total spending in relation to household incomeFigure 9: Financial management35%30%25%20%15%10%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)(15%)(20%)(25%)RM7K18 2930 RM7K18 2930 3940 4950

52、64EastWestMarket Non Market Centres5%0%Well household incomeSlightly below household incomeAbout the same as household incomeSlightly above household incomeWell household incomeWould rather not sayTotalMonthly IncomeAgeGeographyNett: Easy - ChallengingSource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabAbo

53、ut 13% of respondents spend over 50% of their monthly personal income on servicing loans. Of the 13%, the bulk earn between RM3-7,000/month. 27% of respondents believe that their emergency funds/savings would cover up to two months of typical monthly expenses (including mortgage repayments),againthe

54、majoritybeingthoseearningbelowRM7,000amonth.Consumers do not really have that much in terms of emergency fundsFigure10:%ofmonthlypersonalincomeusedfor servicing loanrepayments45%26%44%26%44%30%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Figure 11: No. of months emergency funds would cover monthly expenses30%12%44%12%44%4

55、7%20%15%10%5%20%Between20%50% 50%0% 12months7 - 125 - 63 - 4Up to 2 monthsRM7KRM7KSource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabHow big a role does BR1M/BSH play?BR1Mpayouts(1MalaysiaPeoplesAid,nowknownasBantuanSaraHidup(BSH) aim to help the B40 (the bottom 40% of households with monthly income of RM

56、4,360 or less) by providing government cashhandouts.Of the survey respondents, 48% received a BR1M payout in 2018. Of the 52%of respondents that expect their household income to increase over the next 12 months, about half received a BR1M payment in2018.Almost half of respondents received BR1M; abou

57、t half who expect household income to rise received BR1M in 2018Figure 12: 48% of survey respondents received the BR1M payout in 201880%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Figure 13: Even among those who received a payout, majority expect income levels to rise in the next 12 monthsImproveWorsenImproveWorsen40%35

58、%30%25%20%15%10%Total RM7KEastWest MarketNon Market Centres5%0%Up 10%Up 1-10%Same/ Down 1-10% Down 10%Monthly Household IncomeReceivedpayoutinGeographynot sayReceiveBR1Mpayoutin2018Did not receive BR1M payout in2018Source: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabRespondents expect household income leve

59、ls to rise, despite 82% of recipients stating that they are aware of the governments plan to reduce BSH payouts (in August 2018, the government said it will slowly reduce the payouts before eventually stopping them).Among all recipients, 34% neither support or oppose the plan, 29% completely opposet

60、heplanand27%completelysupporttheplan.Interestingly,evenamong thoserespondentswithlessthanRM3,000monthlyhouseholdincome,only33% completely oppose the plan.BSH did not affect sentiment as most recipients aware of govts plan to reduce the payout and are neutral/supportive of the planFigure 14: Most rec