美国IT硬件一览：调整HPE、HPQ和NTAP的价格目标

1、IT Hardware SnapshotTrimming Price Targets for HPE, HPQ and NTAP; Top Picks: DELL and ZBRAWe are lowering price targets for HPE, HPQ and NTAP on lower assigned multiples. Notwithstanding a solid start to 2019 for stocks, their YTD rebound has lagged that of the overall market, and year over year ret

2、urns are disappointing. Multiples across the IT hardware space compressed, which seems justified we are lapping strong growth in 2018, and given uncertainties associated with China tariffs, and the U.S. government shut-down. We expect IT Hardware stocks to languish in value territory throughout 2019

3、, but we do think Overweight-rated DELL and ZBRA are set up to outperform, former on market-share gain and debt pay-down, latter on back of growth momentum. NTAP is a wild card here, but looks undervalued; HPE, HPQ and XRX stocks are likely laggards in this space, webelieve.IT trends look weak at th

4、e outset of 2019. Consumer electronics markets are soft (esp. mobile handsets), semiconductor companies are seeing a protracted downturn, trade tariffs and the China slow-down are weighing on infrastructure demand, commodity components (DRAM, NAND, displays) are in a down-cycle (see HYPERLINK /resea

5、rch/content/GPS-2884519-0.pdf 2019 HYPERLINK /research/content/GPS-2884519-0.pdf Asia Tech Outlook). There are some secular tailwinds, of course, including 5G, 400G networking, the Intelligent Edge, cloud, software- defined infrastructure, IoT, AI and ML, but generally we 2019 as a tough year for th

6、e IT companies, of which are lapping strong growth in 2018 that was driven by first half hyperscale spending, the crypto boom and the Windows 10 upgradecycle.Trimming Price Targets. On revisiting our ratings and somewhat stale price targets in the IT Hardware space, the context of the market pull- b

7、ack, are trimming PTs for HPE, HPQ and NTAP, leaving PTs unchanged for DELL, XRX and ZBRA (because recently adjusted or confirmed in recent notes). We share our latest thoughts on these stocks below, with additional context regarding the three Price Target changes beginning on page HYPERLINK l _book

8、mark0 9.DELL/OW. DELL has underperformed the market YTD 11%, S&P500 up 6.5%) as investors wrestle how to value the company given the debt-load, and the complexity of the consolidated business. on feedback to our initiation ( HYPERLINK /research/content/GPS-2867059-0 Here We Go Again),North America E

9、quity Research22 January 2019IT Hardware, Alternative Energy Paul Coster, CFA AC(1-212) 622-6425 HYPERLINK mailto:paul.coster paul.costerBloomberg JPMA COSTER Paul JChung(1-212)622-5552 HYPERLINK mailto:paul.j.chung paul.j.chungMark Strouse, CFA(1-212) 622-8244 HYPERLINK mailto:mark.w.strouse mark.w

10、.strouseJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCEquity Ratings and Price TargetsCompanyTickerMkt Cap ($ mn)Price ($) Rat Curing PrevCur Price TargetEndDateEnd DateHewlett Packard EnterpriseHPE US22,475.0814.68Nn/c17.00Dec-1919.00n/cHP IncHPQ US34,756.5021.75Nn/c24.00Dec-1926.00n/cNetApp, Inc.NTAP US16,878.6462.98

11、OWn/c80.00Dec-1992.00n/cSource: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 18 Jan 19.See page 18 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors

12、 should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / investors seem sympathetic to the idea that DELL is undervalued, but they ar

13、e also hesitant to get involved in a highly-leveraged name at a of uncertainty. DELL is of our top picks the IT Hardware space; we believe the firm can outpace its peers the client and infrastructure markets, and the pay-down of debt will help re-rate the stock. We look for PF EPS growth of 6% on re

14、venue growth of 4% in 2019. Oh and by the way, VMW (80% by DELL) is up nearly 8% YTD, so the SOTP valuation already looks a bit conservative. We think DELL is mispriced and a buyhere.HPE/N. Its difficult to get excited about HPE at the moment, especially against the backdrop of the firms partial wit

15、hdrawal from the hyperscale market (just as global Cloud IT infrastructure revenues exceed traditional IT infrastructure revenues for first in 4Q) and a resurgent DELL-EMC competing in the storage space. Certainly, Aruba offers a strong solution-set in the Intelligent Edge sweet-spot, but 10%-plus g

16、rowth in that segment cannot offset what we think will be a down-year for the much larger Hybrid IT segment, so we look for aggregate revenue and EPS to be flattish y/y in FY19, a marked slowdown against FY18. The firm will be looking realize internal efficiency this year, and investing for growth i

17、n Edge, Multi-Cloud, consumption-based solutions and composable infrastructure HYPERLINK /research/content/GPS-2811786-0 Analyst Day Takeaways), but the highlight for investors will likely be the share buy-back program; a good reason to own the stock, but not a reason to add to positions, in ourview

18、.HPQ/N. Its also difficult to get excited about HPQ as company will lap tough year-ago strength that was spurred by strong cyclical demand for PCs, the Windows 10 upgrade cycle and the firms acquisition of Samsung Print. We for mid-single EPS y/y on low single digit revenue growth in FY19. 2019 has

19、started a bit of a whimper; in C4Q18 DELL held market share in the personal computing space, but yielded some ground to Lenovo (who closed acquisition of Fujitsu May 18) and DELL, and HP CPU shortages that will constrain sales into C1Q18. We dont like the set-up for this stock in 2019 as a but stron

20、g FCF (much HPE) should provide support for the stock. (much like HPE again) we believe HPQ to do something transformational in the next year or two, because the story is otherwise a bit pedestrian, lacking much differentiation in a crowdedNTAP/OW. believe NTAP is still over-indexed to growth-vector

21、s in the IT space, specifically AFA-storage and Hyper-Converged Infrastructure and Cloud Data Services, so we were a bit surprised by the significant sell-off after a largely positive print on November 14th. Certainly the company also laps tough comps, but we still expect relative strong y/y EPS gro

22、wth of just over 10% on revenue growth of just 5% CY19, potential upside from ELA revenue, which were excluded from company guidance. The forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples pulled in quite a bit, putting NTAP firmly in GARP territory in our view. that stock still has a bit of2growth/momentum feel t

23、o it, we believe the stock could be volatile this year but we expect the stock to trade higher by year-end.XRX/N. As prospects of a merger deal with FujiFilm faded, we believe investors are confronted with a new reality, which is that XRX looks likely to take 2 - 3 years to re-set its supply-chain a

24、nd develop a go-to-market strategy for the Fuji-Xerox JV ends. Meanwhile the end-market is in decline, and could slow y/y given macro uncertainty and how it weighs on enterprise spending. And yet, the stock is worth keeping on your radar because Fujis $1 billion lawsuit against Xerox, successful cou

25、ld force Xerox back to the negotiating table, and the XRX Feb 5th analyst day could provide some clue as to how the firm might restructure to create shareholder value, earlier than anticipated. We are incrementally cautioushere.ZBRA/OW. against tough y/y comps, we believe ZBRAs prospects are good he

26、ading into 2019, with growth fueled by the ongoing mobile computing upgrade cycle (owing to Microsoft CE end-of-life). retail and eCommerce investment in IoT solutions, and the likelihood of additional tuck-in acquisitions now that the company has restored debt- leverage to target-range. ZBRA stock

27、seems to attract a lot of attention from shorts, upon inbound call volume, so we think skepticism is priced into the stock, with a 12% YTD rebound. We ZBRA to generate EPS growth of at least 6% on organic revenue growth of about 4% and we are close to consensus; we sense that bar set low heading int

28、o 2019, notwithstanding the tough y/y comps. We are buyers into the 4Qprint.3IT Hardware Stocks YTD PerspectiveIts been one of the strongest starts for the S&P500 since 1928. The S&P500 is up 6.5%. The JPMorgan Index of Hardware stocks (JP1BHWR Index) is up 5.7%.Within our coverage universe only DEL

29、L has declined YTD.Figure 1: YTD Performance59%25%18%15%13%12%11%11%11%7%6%6%59%25%18%15%13%12%11%11%11%7%6%6%4%4%1%-1%-1%-11%NCR ZEBRA TECH COGNEX CORP HEWLETT PACKA PURE STORAGE-AIBM IROBOT CORP LOGITECH INTER-RGARMIN LTDS&P 500 LENOVO GROUP WESTERN DIGITALHP NETAPP INC SEAGATE TECHNOLO CISCO SYST

30、EMS MOTOROLA SOLUTIOAPPLE ACER INC DELL TECHN-C-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70% YTD ReturnSource: Bloomberg.Year/year performance for many of the IT hardware stocks has been a lot less impressive even set against a 5% y/y decline in the S&P500. Within our coverage universe, only ZBRA, MSI, GRMN and I

31、RBT have posted positive y/y returns over the last 12 months (ex-dividend yield)4Figure 2: Y/Y Performance44%44%23%19%9%7%5%44%44%23%19%9%7%5%-5%-7%-8%-9%-13%-17%-26%-27%-27%-32%-37%-55%-78%-23%IROBOT PURESTORAGE-ANETAPP INCS&P HP INCHEWLETT LOGITECHINTER-RAPPLE ASUSTEK COMPUTER SEAGATE TECHNOLOXERO

32、X CORPIBM NCR CORP ACER INC COGNEX WESTERNDIGITAL DIEBOLDNIXDORF-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60% Y/Y ReturnSource: Bloomberg.Whereas the hardware stocks were generally trading close to the top end of their 5- year P/E and EV/EBITDA trading ranges back in September 2018, they now look a bit more attr

33、actively valued relative to their recent historical trading range, however many continue to trade above their 5-year average; the market still prices in cyclical strength it seems.Figure 3: 5 Year P/E Trading Ranges vs. Current P/E50P/E Min P/E Max P/ESource: Bloomberg estimates.5Figure 4: Current P

34、/E vs. 5 Yr. Avg P/E3530353025201555%Current/PEAvg PEPremium / Discount31%16%18%8%9%11%12%13%-5%-3%1%2%2%-12%-20%-6%10 -34%505%Source: Bloomberg estimates.Figure 5: 5 Year EV/EBITDA Trading Ranges vs. Current EV/EBITDAEV/EBITDA Min EV/EBITDA Max EV/EBITDA20EV/EBITDA Min EV/EBITDA Max EV/EBITDA201510

35、50Source: Bloomberg estimates.Figure 6: Current EV/EBITDA vs. 5 Yr. Avg EV/EBITDAEV/EBITDA Avg EV/EBITDA Premium / DiscountEV/EBITDA Avg EV/EBITDA Premium / Discount20151050-10%-20%-30%Source: Bloomberg estimates.6IT Hardware stocks should appeal to Value InvestorsTraditional IT spending is expected

36、 to grow at a rate similar to GDP over the next decade but overall IT spending could be double GDP (IDC) with the emergence of new technologies, such as IoT, AI/ML, robotics, and AR/VR. Even within traditional IT segments (hardware, software, services, telcom) the growth will be centered on cloud, m

37、obile, social, security and big data/analytics.Figure 7: Worldwide ICT Spending, 2016-2022$ in millionsSource: IDC, ICT Spending ForecastMature technologies including on-prem servers, storage, PCs, will exhibit very little growth. IT Hardware is understandably of little interest to growth investors,

38、 and value investing has been a relatively unrewarded style in recent years with the S&P500 forward P/E spread between momentum and value at multi-year highs (see US Equity Strategy report from HYPERLINK /research/content/GPS-2876929-0 January 9th).Figure 8: Mom-Value Spread at 94%-tileSource: J.P.M

39、organ: US Style Positioning 01/09/2018; Dubravko Lakos-Bujas7JPMorgan IT Hardware and Applied Tech CoverageTable 1: IT Hardware and Applied Tech Coverage$ in millions except per share dataTickerFYEndRatingCurrent Px as01/19/19Price TargetKey Financial MetricsDiluted EVDebt Cash Mkt+ Inv.CapCash,% Ca

40、pSharesPro-Forma EPSCY19 CY20Pro-Forma EBITDA CY19 CY20RevenueCY19 CY20Valuation (CY19)P/E EV / EV /Sales EBITDAValuation (CY20)P/E EV / EV/Sales EBITDAHistorical Stock Returns52 w k 52 w k %52 %52highlowwk wk high lowAAXNDecOW$50.19$68.003,0022,677032511%60$1.00$1.37639848958650.2x5.5xn.m.36.7x4.6x

41、27.3x$76.45$24.5066%205%BDCDecN$52.87$55.002,5213,7541,56232913%48$5.93$5.914704842,5852,6488.9x1.5x8.0 x8.9x1.4x7.8x$87.13$37.7961%140%BEDecOW$12.67$30.001,3041,62774141832%103$0.03$0.61-112418761,134n.m. 1.9xn.m.20.8x1.4xn.m.$38.00$9.4233%135%CAMPFebN$13.99$17.0049246227230261%35$1.00$1.0155573794

42、0213.9x1.2x8.4x13.8x1.1x8.2x$25.45$10.9155%128%CDWDecN$81.69$87.0012,55615,5203,2192552%154$5.40$5.761,3041,36017,10317,82715.1x0.9x11.9x14.2x0.9x11.4x$96.75$66.8884%122%CGNXDecUW$42.94$40.007,6116,802080911%177$1.45$1.733083638951,02629.7x7.6x22.1x24.9x6.6x18.7x$70.00$34.8861%123%CREEJunUW$48.41$35

43、.004,9324,66945371615%102$0.80$1.092492941,7141,85860.8x2.7x18.8x44.5x2.5x15.9x$51.78$30.7893%157%CSIQDecN$18.03$17.001,1172,7222,12552047%62$2.37$1.833623083,6453,6507.6x0.7x7.5x9.9x0.7x8.8x$18.49$11.3798%159%CUBSepOW$62.35$73.001,7101,64520927516%27$4.08$4.711782061,4631,60415.3x1.1x9.3x13.2x1.0 x

44、8.0 x$77.35$50.6181%123%DBDDecUW$3.95N/A3012,7462,390473157%76$0.33$0.603313424,5914,66612.0 x0.6x8.3x6.6x0.6x8.0 x$19.05$2.4121%164%DDDDecUW$11.33$10.001,2751,1907927%113$0.29$0.47729773277439.5x1.6x16.5x24.3x1.5x12.3x$21.78$8.8852%128%DELLJanOW$43.35$60.0033,20664,38948,65717,47453%766$6.73$7.2511

45、,44212,63890,48694,1756.4x0.7x5.6x6.0 x0.7x5.1x$49.10$42.0288%103%DLBSepN$64.56$70.006,8955,60301,29119%107$3.23$3.494905111,2821,36220.0 x4.4x11.4x18.5x4.1x11.0 x$74.29$58.1787%111%FLEXMarN$8.14$12.004,3505,8982,9251,37832%534$1.20$1.451,2481,37826,71428,0616.8x0.2x4.7x5.6x0.2x4.3x$19.69$6.7441%121

46、%FSLRDecOW$47.94$75.005,0892,8264662,73054%106$2.51$3.144987083,3493,13919.1x0.8x5.7x15.2x0.9x4.0 x$81.72$36.5159%131%GEODecOW$22.29$28.002,6825,2622,7311506%120$1.56$1.644274382,4012,43814.3x2.2x12.3x13.6x2.2x12.0 x$28.06$18.4379%121%GPRODecN$4.91$7.0068867613714822%140$0.04$0.1665821,1611,184n.m.

47、0.6x10.4x29.8x0.6x8.2x$7.60$4.0065%123%GRMNDecUW$67.90$65.0012,90110,37002,53120%190$3.64$3.859119453,3433,40718.6x3.1x11.4x17.6x3.0 x11.0 x$70.77$57.0196%119%HASIDecOW$22.15$24.001,1685641,5322,137183%53$1.37$1.401921585816.2x9.7x29.0 x15.8x9.7x26.3x$24.05$17.3392%128%HPEOctN$14.68$19.0021,66828,92

48、912,1414,88023%1,476$1.79$1.865,7305,90730,91331,0598.2x0.9x5.0 x7.9x0.9x4.9x$19.48$12.0975%121%HPQOctN$21.75$26.0034,75735,5785,9875,16615%1,598$2.33$2.404,7054,73459,41460,1479.3x0.6x7.6x9.1x0.6x7.5x$27.08$19.2280%113%IRBTDecN$89.55$77.002,5532,432151355%29$3.57$4.121621891,2071,39025.1x2.0 x15.0

49、x21.7x1.8x12.8x$118.75$55.7775%161%JBLAugOW$25.42$30.004,1605,8692,51380419%164$3.12$3.551,5791,63925,21626,0408.1x0.2x3.7x7.2x0.2x3.6x$31.77$21.4980%118%LOGIMarN$33.44$42.005,6435,039060411%169$1.99$2.114014243,0283,29816.8x1.7x12.6x15.9x1.5x11.9x$49.96$29.0667%115%MSIDecUW$115.60$127.0019,95324,35

50、85,4321,0275%173$7.30$7.942,0332,1057,7338,04715.8x3.1x12.0 x14.6x3.0 x11.6x$133.97$95.7686%121%NCRDecOW$26.49$33.003,9556,7673,1273348%149$3.00$3.309709496,4496,5458.8x1.0 x7.0 x8.0 x1.0 x7.1x$38.68$20.9368%127%NICEDecN$106.11$121.006,7556,55345465610%64$5.08$5.494614981,6301,75120.9x4.0 x14.2x19.3

51、x3.7x13.2x$119.83$84.4989%126%NTAPAprOW$62.98$92.0016,62714,1201,7924,29926%264$4.80$5.731,5901,7966,5016,84313.1x2.2x8.9x11.0 x2.1x7.9x$88.08$52.0072%121%ORADecOW$55.49$59.002,8284,0751,229723%51$2.57$2.8738741175980921.6x5.4x10.5x19.3x5.0 x9.9x$70.68$45.7979%121%PLXSSepN$54.57$62.001,8021,69318929

52、817%33$4.43$5.032282453,2493,53712.3x0.5x7.4x10.8x0.5x6.9x$66.49$47.6382%115%PSDOJunOW$14.87$18.001,2852,060805302%86$1.58$1.782302472,9093,0209.4x0.7x9.0 x8.4x0.7x8.3x$18.85$11.9779%124%SEDGDecOW$37.18$59.001,8501,398045124%50$3.19$3.671592041,0571,12311.7x1.3x8.8x10.1x1.2x6.8x$70.74$30.8053%121%SP

53、WRDecN$5.43$9.007662,2831,50322129%141($0.23)($0.11)2342452,3732,559n.m. 1.0 x9.7xn.m. 0.9x9.3x$10.00$4.5554%119%SSYSDecUW$21.28$18.001,1441,0572835131%54$0.73$0.92819870573429.3x1.5x13.1x23.1x1.4x10.8x$26.17$17.0681%125%SYNAJunOW$39.53$55.001,4271,61945526318%36$4.81$5.042382541,6781,7078.2x1.0 x6.

54、8x7.8x0.9x6.4x$55.25$33.5472%118%TERPDecOW$11.59$13.001,6146,5764,01667742%139($0.76)($0.69)6136299961,022n.m. 6.6x10.7xN/AN/AN/A$12.14$9.9095%117%TPICDecOW$29.42$35.001,0131,03513311111%34$1.32$2.111251731,5401,78622.3x0.7x8.3x13.9x0.6x6.0 x$32.22$17.7991%165%TTMIDecOW$10.83$16.001,1972,5561,558208

55、17%110$1.66$1.954304702,8602,9866.5x0.9x5.9x5.5x0.9x5.4x$19.91$8.9754%121%VREXSepN$27.81$28.001,0681,406390525%38$1.60$1.8411212877279617.4x1.8x12.6x15.1x1.8x11.0 x$43.76$21.5764%129%VRNTJanOW$46.58$59.003,0843,47877538112%66$3.42$3.672923381,3352,49313.6x2.6x11.9x12.7x1.4x10.3x$52.45$37.1089%126%XR

56、XDecN$23.43$28.006,1156,7771,7821,15719%261$3.66$3.611,7131,6329,4999,1546.4x0.7x4.0 x6.5x0.7x4.2x$37.42$18.5863%126%ZBRADecOW$177.79$185.009,67611,5311,900450%54$11.41$12.358929414,4094,58815.6x2.6x12.9x14.4x2.5x12.3x$184.75#96%161%Source: J.P.Morgan8NeutralCompanyDataHewlett Packard EnterpriseHewl

57、ett Packard Enterprise (HPE;HPE US)FYEOct2017A2018A2019E2020E2021EPrice ($)14.68Adj. EPS ($)Date Of Price18 Jan 19Q1 (Jan)0.450.340.340.360.3952-week Range ($)19.48-12.09Q2 (Apr)0.350.340.380.400.43Market Cap ($ bn)22.48Q3 (Jul)0.300.440.420.430.45Fiscal Year EndOctQ4 (Oct)0.310.450.460.470.51Shares

58、 O/S (mn)1,531FY1.411.561.591.651.78Price Target ($)17.00Revenue FY ($ mn)28,87130,85230,90830,95531,491Price TargetEndDate31-Dec-19 Bloomberg EPSFY($)1.391.531.581.721.81Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,J.P.Morganestimates.CYPFEPS:CY18=$1.73,CY19=$1.79,CY20=$1.86. Note we add back stock compensation ex

59、pense to our PF EPS estimates consistent with stocks in our coverage universeInvestment Thesis, Valuation and RisksHewlett Packard Enterprise (Neutral; Price Target: $17.00)Investment ThesisMaintain Neutral. HPE is trading at 8.2x our CY19E PF EPS ex stock comp. stock is attractively valued relative

60、 to the market and peer-group multiples, in our view, though the slightly depressed multiple reflects the top-line pressures from exit of tier 1 space, along with fx headwinds and competitive pressures. Continued solid execution, incremental strength in IT spending, and re-acceleration of revenues c