美国能源中游与MLPsQ4预览：大宗商品进展缓慢

1、Commodities Slow Progress4Q18 PreviewJanuary 15, 2019Spiro M Dounis, CFA212-325-3463 HYPERLINK mailto:spiro.dounis spiro.dounisJohn R. Mackay, CFA212-325-6242 HYPERLINK mailto:john.mackay john.mackayManav Gupta212-325-6617 HYPERLINK mailto:manav.gupta manav.guptaDoug B. Irwin212-325-6850 HYPERLINK m

2、ailto:douglas.irwin.2 douglas.irwin.2Charles Bryant212-325-4938 HYPERLINK mailto:charles.bryant charles.bryantDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSUREAND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse

3、does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investmen

4、t decision.CommodityRiskIn FocusEarnings Set Up: The Bar Moved LowerEarnings Set Up: The Bar Moved LowerThe sharp commodity slide in 4Q18 sets the bar lower for most names under coverage; a sharp contrast from the elevated expectations in 3Q18 that were met and beat in most cases. dont view Januarys

5、 stock rebound as an indication expectations have increased. see the move as largely technical and driven by rebalancing. Outside of earnings, major events to watch for are: (1) potential sale of Canadian business, (2) MPLX/ANDX (3) Whistler FID, and (4) TELL FID.NGL Names Most at Risk; Seasonality

6、Helps SomeNGL Names Most at Risk; Seasonality Helps Someexpect the weaker commodity tape to largely impact names like OKE, EPD, MPLX, and ET due to slight commodity exposure. Lower NGL prices and tighter differentials drive most of the impact; ongoing high fractionation fees are a potential negative

7、 for That said, frac fees have eased slightly QoQ which impacts the other NGL names. Seasonality likely drives sequentially stronger performance for PAA, BPL (ex-asset sales), KMI, and NGL.Guidance is Likely the Largest Risk this QuarterGuidance is Likely the Largest Risk this QuarterWithsomeE&Ps(An

8、teroforone),curtailingproductiontofocusoncashflowneutralityandgeneration, volume guidance could be at risk in 2019. PAA seemed to leave the door open to a guidance update pending discussions with upstream customers. believe the same could be said across all namesG&P exposure, particularly anywhere o

9、utside the Permian and Bakken. Companies could signal the risk withacautioustoneforthisseasonscalls;actualvolumeimpactprobablywouldntshowupuntil2H19. Source:CreditSuisseResearch,FactsetJanuary 15, 20192Crude Oil (WTI down 15%)Natural Gas (Henry Hub up 29%)Taking a Step Down From 3Q18Crude Oil (WTI d

10、own 15%)Natural Gas (Henry Hub up 29%)NGLs (Mont Belvieu down 19%)Crude Oil (Up 6%*)Natural Gas (UpNGLs (Mont Belvieu down 19%)Crude Oil (Up 6%*)Natural Gas (Up5%*)NGLsPricingPricingProductionExportsProductionExportsCrude Oil (Up 29%)LNG (Cargoes up an est. 13%)NGLsSource: oomberg, EIA, Enntge ; Not

11、e: ompred to Q8 erage ees; *Uses EIA estmates n Drng roductty Report for DecemberCrude Oil (Up 29%)LNG (Cargoes up an est. 13%)NGLsJanuary 15, 201934Q18 EBITDAFY19 EBITDALarge DiversifiedsCSeConsensus% vs consensusCSeConsensus% vs consensusDCP$294$298-1%$1,202$1,218-1%EPD$1,801$1,861 $7,278$7,479-3%

12、ET$2,615$2,5811%$10,674$10,342 3%KMI$1,896$1,919-1%$7,664$7,6750%MPLX$952$9530%$3,954$3,8991%OKE$638$643-1%$2,718$2,6234%PSXP$290$293-1%$1,327$1,2189%TGE$226$2270%$933$947-1%TRGP$334$353 $1,585$1,527 4%WMB$1,198$1,216-1%$4,994$5,091-2%Avg. vs Street-1%1%Gathering and ProcessingAM$205$1879%$865$917-6

13、%EQM$310$3090%$1,332$1,3012%ENLC$289$2823%$1,115$1,132-2%ETRN$306$257 19%$1,238$1,149 8%HESM$25$25-2%$111$1110%NBLX$61$61-1%$282$301-6%OMP$20$21-5%$140$1353%SMLP$79$764%$328$3251%WES*$331$340-3%$1,848$1,67710%Avg. vs Street4%3%*FY19 proforma for simplification4Q184Q18 EBITDAFY19 EBITDACrude and Refi

14、ned ProductsCSeConsensus% vs consensusCSeConsensus% vs consensusBPL$251$258-3%$907$8961%MMP$376$382-2%$1,470$1,492-1%PAA$815$8120%$2,815$2,8001%SHLX$188$1871%$815$821-1%Avg. vs Street-1%0%Other RefiningLogisticsANDX$338$345-2%$1,386$1,423-3%BPMP$45$450%$207$216 -4%DKL$45$451%$199$1962%HEP$85$90 -5%$

15、356$361-1%PBFX$41$42-1%$174$177-2%Avg. vs Street-2%-2%Wholesale Products and MarketingNGL$123$129-5%$441$4390%SUN$149$150-1%$610$6080%Avg. vs Street-3%0%Liquefied NaturalGasCQP$594$5970%$2,691$2,7010%LNG$555$559-1%$3,102$3,291-6%NEXT$(11)$(7)N/A$(43)$(47)N/ATELL$(28)$(26)N/A$(17)$(97)N/AAvg. vs Stre

16、et-1%-2%Company SectionAM:Neutral($25TP);AMGP:Neutral($15TP)EstimateEBITDACSe$205mmStreet$187mmBEATBEAT4Q18E3Q18QoQ4Q18E3Q18QoQ4Q17YoYSummary$mm)Adj EBITDAAdj DCF DPUOperating DataG&P+COMPRESSION$ $ $ $ $10%5%7%$ $ $44%see increasing gathering volumes driving stronger sequential results, partly offs

17、et by lower fresh watersee increasing gathering volumes driving stronger sequential results, partly offset by lower fresh water volumes.AR is running with one less completion crew in4Q18.Sherwood 10/11 processing plants started up during 4Q18 which should partially contribute to higher sequential JV

18、 results.18 guidance implies roughly 28 wells serviced in the water segment during 4Q as some wells scheduled for 4Q were pulled into 3Q.The production slowdown at AR will likely be addressed on the call. Further downside risk to production could potentially come from lower NGL prices as it would pr

19、essure AR cash flows.Thematically, we likely continue to hear: updates on the potential build-out of downstream assets, debottlenecking of Northeast NGL with the start- up of ME2, and slower production at AR.29%Gathering - LP (mmcf/d)2,4912,16615%1,71146%Gathering - HP (mmcf/d)2,3172,1737%1,84226%Co

20、mpression (mmcf/d)2,0811,75619%1,35554%HANDLING & Fresh Water Delivery (mbw/d)135195-31%149-10%Source: Credit Suisse Research, Company Reportsexpect the sale of the domestic assets and ongoing segregated storage declines to drive lower sequential results, partially offset by positive seasonality eff

21、ects.The domestic assets were sold on December18 for $450mm; BPL guided to a sales multiple of 13.0 x 2019 EBITDA.The VTTI sale closed January 10, slightlyexpect the sale of the domestic assets and ongoing segregated storage declines to drive lower sequential results, partially offset by positive se

22、asonality effects.The domestic assets were sold on December18 for $450mm; BPL guided to a sales multiple of 13.0 x 2019 EBITDA.The VTTI sale closed January 10, slightlylaterthan the original guidance. note there couldEstimateEBITDACSe$251mmStreet$258mmIN-LINEIN-LINE4Q18E3Q18QoQ(%)4Q17YoY(%)Financial

23、 SummarybesomeaccountingnoisearoundEBITDA contribution if classified as an assetAdj. EBITDA$-1%$-14%held for sale.Adj. DCF$-1%$-18%DPU$0.75$0.750%$1.26-41%BPLcouldannounce anewcrude-by-railcontract which would benefit its NYH assets.Operating DataDPTEBITDA$142$2%$-12%A FEEDis underway on an LPGPipel

24、ine throughput (kbpd)1,5351,5280%1,4863%distributionexportfacility;mgmthopedtomakeTerminal throughput (kbpd)1,2921,2543%1,2930%an FID announcement in early 2019.GMT EBITDA$-1%$-9%Utilization (%)77%78%-1%88%-13%Merchant Services EBITDA$1$4-74%$9-87%Segregated storage likely remains a headwindSales Vo

25、lumes (mm gal)$24322%2931%despite the slight contango in the oil curve.Source: Credit Suisse Research, Company Reportsexpect the early October dropdown to drive stronger sequential results, in-line with guidance.Proteus and Endymion reported weak volumes for 3Q18 due to the tie-in of the Thunder Hor

26、se expansion during the expect to see volumes return to more normal levels in4Q18.expect the early October dropdown to drive stronger sequential results, in-line with guidance.Proteus and Endymion reported weak volumes for 3Q18 due to the tie-in of the Thunder Horse expansion during the expect to se

27、e volumes return to more normal levels in4Q18.BP2 underwent planned maintenance from September through mid-November which offsets some of the benefit from Proteus and Endymion returning to normal. expect BP2 volumes to remain below the 303kbpd MVC for 4Q18.will be looking for FY19 guidance. estimate

28、 FY19 adj. EBITDA of $207mm (36% growth) and adj. DCF of $174mm.We expect additional color on BPMPs dropdown outlook for 2019 and beyond. We continue to estimate one dropdown per year through 2022.EstimateEBITDACSe$45mmStreet$45mmIN-LINEIN-LINE4Q18E3Q18QoQ (%)4Q17YoY (%)Financial SummaryAdj. EBITDA$

29、3820%$93%Adj. DCF$3430%$90%DPU$0.30$0.293%$0.1869%Operating DataThroughputBP22832762%297-5%Mars5805800%44929%Caesar2192142%20010%Proteus1611508%165-2%Endymion1611508%165-2%Rev/BarrelMars$1.22$1.220%$1.40-13%Mardi Gras$0.68$0.680%$0.671%Source: Credit Suisse Research, Company ReportsDespite the mater

30、ially weaker LNG macro (JKM- HH spread fell 30% from 3Q to 4Q18), we expect just a modest QoQ EBITDA decline for LNG with volumes holding steady and margins largely insulated from spot price exposure.flag that cargoes from CCL T1 (we believe 2) and SPL T5 (unclear count) continue to be capitalized a

31、s commissioning cargoes for 4Q18 and thus should not be included in EBITDA estimates (unclear how much is in consensus).LNG:Outperform($84TP);CQP:Underperform($34TP)Despite the materially weaker LNG macro (JKM- HH spread fell 30% from 3Q to 4Q18), we expect just a modest QoQ EBITDA decline for LNG w

32、ith volumes holding steady and margins largely insulated from spot price exposure.flag that cargoes from CCL T1 (we believe 2) and SPL T5 (unclear count) continue to be capitalized as commissioning cargoes for 4Q18 and thus should not be included in EBITDA estimates (unclear how much is in consensus

33、).LNG EstimateEBITDACSe$555mmStreet$559mmIN-LINEIN-LINE4Q18EQoQ 4Q17YoY (%)Financial SummaryAt we expect in-line with consensusAdj. EBITDA$555$569-2%$5236%EBITDA at $594m, with a DPU of $0.59.Adj. DCF$91$110-17%$22307%DPS-BigfocusforthecallwillbethepotentialSPLT6Operating DataFID at CQP (may wait un

34、til end of June) andCQPshareholder return plans at LNG. We do notEBITDA$594$604-2%$612-3%expect any major change to 2019 guidance.SPL Cargoes65650%70-7%SPL Volumes (Tbtu)2342283%252-7%CCLFor the longer-term we will also be lookingCCL Cargoes2-for any color on a potential CQP fold-in (weCCL Volumes (

35、Tbtu)6-believe the spread remains too wide) and thenext set of projects (Corpus modulars).Source: Credit Suisse Research, Company Reports, FactSetIN-LINETimingdifferences,increasedethanerejection, and a line strike on Sand Hills likely drives lower sequential results. A full quarter of the MewbournI

36、IIIN-LINETimingdifferences,increasedethanerejection, and a line strike on Sand Hills likely drives lower sequential results. A full quarter of the MewbournIIIprocessingplantpartiallyoffsets.and margins likely see minimal increases due to industry-wide bottlenecks.Distributable cash flow declines QoQ

37、 due to higher sequential maintenance capex and an above normal JV distribution in 3Q18 that is not expected to reoccur in 4Q18.Mgmt still expects to exceed the high end 2018 guidance which was $1.135bln.Mgmt likely provides 2019 guidance; we estimate 2019 EBITDA of $1.20bln and DCF of $715mm.The OC

38、onnor II plant startup likely remains in 2Q19, but the Cheyenne Connector does not commence until 4Q19 according to TGE couldpreventOConnorfromrampingEstimateEBITDACSe$294mmStreet$298mm4Q18E3Q18QoQ (%)4Q17YoY (%)Financial Summary (in $mm)Adj EBITDA$294.5$ 309.0-4%$280.05%Adj DCF$ 176.9$ 209.0-15%$ 1

39、76.01%DPU$ 0.78$ 0.780%$ 0.780%Operating DataG&P EBITDA$213.1$210.01%$228.0-7%Natgas Throughput (mmcf/d)493348812%46039%NGL Production (mbbl/d)4414392%40611%L&M EBITDA$156.6$166.0-3%$114.042%NGL Pipeline Throughput (kbpd)6426166%50330%NGL Fractionator Volume (kbpd)60600%4728%Source: Credit Suisse Re

40、search, Company Reportssee in-line EBITDA as the Permianexposure may be balanced by weaker N TX / LAassets.expect recent 2c/q DPU growth to continue for 4Q18 (10% growth for CY18) but believe it will pull back slightly going forward from 9% in 2019 (10% is mgmt guidance) to mid-single digit growth f

41、or 2020+ given the IDR burden.see in-line EBITDA as the Permianexposure may be balanced by weaker N TX / LAassets.expect recent 2c/q DPU growth to continue for 4Q18 (10% growth for CY18) but believe it will pull back slightly going forward from 9% in 2019 (10% is mgmt guidance) to mid-single digit g

42、rowth for 2020+ given the IDR burden.Leverage screens high vs. peers at 4.1x for 4Q18, albeit at the low range of guidance of 4.1-4.3x for YE. see this level being maintained at least through 2019 and look for color from mgmt on how to fund a drop in 2019 given the debt load and unit pricepullback.P

43、ermian crude opportunities remain the biggest organic driver for Delek in midstream (both DK and DKL) a major focus for the 4Q release will be next steps on the proposed PGC pipeline and the potential Big Spring crude gathering drop.IDR removal / simplification will remain a focus, but we no not exp

44、ect a material update with4Q.EstimateEBITDACSe$45mmStreet$45mmIN-LINEIN-LINEQoQ YoY Financial SummaryAdj. EBITDA$45$435%$3145%Adj. DCF$32$32-1%$2246%DPU$0.81$0.792%$0.7312%Operating DataPipes and TransportationOp Margin$25$25-2%$1932%Volumes (kbpd)1371342%146-7%Wholesale and TerminallingOp Margin$17

45、 $-4% $99%Volumes (kbpd)304328-7%20945%Source: Credit Suisse Research, Company Reports, FactSetENLK:Neutral($14TP);Outperform($19TP)EstimateEBITDACSe$282mmStreet$275mmIN-LINE4Q18E 3Q18 QoQ (%) 4Q17 YoY (%)IN-LINE4Q18E 3Q18 QoQ (%) 4Q17 YoY (%)Financial Summary (in $mm)Financial Summary (in $mm)Adj E

46、BITDAAdj DCF to Common Unitholders DPU$ $ $ $ $6%$ 5%$ 0%$18%The Avenger crude system and base volumes areThe Avenger crude system and base volumes areexpectedtodrivehighersequentialresults. Avenger commenced operations but wont be fully ramped up until 1Q19.The Lobo III processing plant likely comm

47、ences initial ops in 4Q18 but wont contribute to earnings until 1Q19.expect to receive formal 2019 guidance for the pro-forma combined In our areiterationofcurrentguidancecouldbe viewed positively given the decline in commoditypricesandthreatoflowerproducer activity.Managementcontinuestoevaluatefrac

48、tionation expansion which could include a JV, full build-out, or contract-out.4Q earnings provides the first opportunity for mgmt to address concerns around producer budgets for 2019 following a steep drop-off in crude prices.0%Operating Data Texas SegmentGathering and Transportation (mmcf/d)2,4102,

49、2676%2,2547%Processing (mmcf/d)Louisiana Segment1,4771,31113%1,20123%Gathering and Transportation (mmcf/d)24692,2749%2,10118%Processing (mmcf/d)4654298%4562%NGL Fractionation (kbpd)Oklahoma Segment1581561%1487%Gathering and Transportation (mmcf/d)1,2841,2602%95435%Processing (mmcf/d)1,2781,2393%9793

50、1%Crude & Condensate SegmentCrude OilHandling (kbpd)18516611%11955%Source: Credit Suisse Research, Company Reportsexpect increased ethane rejection and commodity price declines to drive lower sequential results.Part of the 100kbpd Seaway expansion commenced in October with the use of DRA. Pump horse

51、power expansion is currently underway.expect to receive an update on growth capex guidance on the 4Q call; management indicated upside expect increased ethane rejection and commodity price declines to drive lower sequential results.Part of the 100kbpd Seaway expansion commenced in October with the u

52、se of DRA. Pump horsepower expansion is currently underway.expect to receive an update on growth capex guidance on the 4Q call; management indicated upside to $3.5bln of FY19 capex.dont expect mgmt to change its position on share buybacks or accelerated distribution growth, however the small buyback

53、 in December could indicate that buybacks are on managements radar when EPD is M8 y ara Bsxa: (12 rrxx :hs) t+- IN- XrIetaan eattrre u gJ+*MP.McxxrloxxaJwcx t r+ne o $86 E w w baeed on a 1L75x Ev rmltae olur FY19 EBfTaA staeebsI Izan 1s eetsRisk:UxcidesJsoox Ldetpemraingand334targa:ptioCOPafehefzILN

54、Gdemi.hger gbt LNGpc.loserLXHHTarget Pri and RatingVal uatio - k1ethodoIog and Rib s: i12 rronths i 1r DCP k1 dstreanJ LP i DCP. h IL4ethod. W Oulpeflm rafng arid wget onced S43 are baed on a 12.25a EV at oe ct1 oie FY“ 9 E8IT0A.Risk:RR Ie cur V3 FT ct Dutperkrrr etig du e: Ioae NGL prces. demand. l

55、evel DJ produaion. ENB d esitize ad oig-tahnTarget Pri and RatingValuatio-k1ethodologandRibs:i12montsi1r0e-ekLogisticsPan:nersLPiDKL.Hi L8fthod. W S3OTF whichhelpsdrivecurUnerpefimrang. sbasedon10.5xFY“9EBT:AITisk:Ua deslsiea 530TParidLderpefiofiraingindudedenysincom q acjeorotareabointherra a ooIJn

56、gtosgt PefrrianTarget Pri and RatingYal uatio - kethodoIog and Rib s: i12 mon1tls i 1r EST GP I-bldngs LP i;E0GP. fiLbthod. W Naztal ar g art pri c 320 au bzd o the cie pce nf the in-pzcs accsiLol cr EGFRisk:R teoJr5Z0FTce Nefcetingiclf+e:biluleoftheneigerdaltodeandauIIbackuxJerlyingvclurres Target

57、Pri and RatingVal uatio - k1ethodolog and Rib s: i12 monts i 1r ETAT Y idstre am Pan:ners LP i E OU M;iL8fthod. W Uqet o ce d 553 and Neutrd ratng i bed a 12 X EV nuipe o oiz FY“ 9 EBTL:A timale.ITisk:RR IecurS53FTct Netxc stingiclue:hclefAppzacianvc/urre/uzadcbetteftai1gudedmdipleonre ICF:dev Oovcc

58、ole sJs inch further dele!rocost itIetio o the WWFprqect.Target Pri and RatingVal uatio - k1ethodoIog and Rib s: i12 months i 1r En Lin f4idstream LLC i.EHLC.H if/bthod. W Ouipem raJng and wget once of 519 ale bed on a 12.75s EV et oe al oiz FY 9 EBITOA tirroRisk:R oJr 519 TP Md DutpeftclTr etiq c u

59、Je: Doanside: zoae C*:Jacma gcvrr. +oxer Foman ende onth biling corrple 1:he rrerger proect delays Ise g cr Le igt +actortiomelTarget Pri and RatingVal uatio - k1ethodoIog and Rib s: i12 months i 1r En Lin t/Iidstream Partners LP iE NLK M,it/ethod. W Nazral andzof$1*arebadonrecueutENL?priatthew cain

60、rensactiomuliipnf1.15xpeiunir Risk:RR Iecur514FTct Nelxrc ctingicl&:Upside:PerrrianOK vduregreats increaedNGLexposoitsxrzemLouisiacearIsessaandlay-tan-expeoedca1rzc1stosfqdyfeedaockccnnezivtyforLNGexperts.SidesJsid&ie-than-exzec1eddefinesntheBawrtandflingtocorrplteLesirrpliticarcnticn.Target Pri and