全球机械行业策略分析

1、WHATS COOKININ MACHINERY AND ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTIONTHE IDES OF MACHCATALYST WATCH3/20AIA ABI Data3/22Baker Hughes Rig Count3/20EIA Petroleum Status Report3/22EU Truck Data3/20 (est.)ATA Truck Tonnage DataWHATS HOT AND WHATS NOTMachinery: The Machinery names underperformed the market this week, w

2、ith NAV and OSK under pressure and CAT outperforming. This week, we also published our HYPERLINK /s/V7gkBE4AF-ZGHf Construction Equipment: Re-energized note where we are taking a closer look at the potential impact of major energy awards moving forward to construction equipment demand given our rein

3、forced view that the next LNG wave is coming following the CS LNG conference. On a similar note, CATs retail stats were solid for Construction, up 8% in February vs up 7% last month, which is holding up very well despite tough comps. Resources growth slowed to up 7% from up 17% last month on tougher

4、 comps. E&T sales inflected negative, down 1% with the weakness primarily in O&G where sales were down 10%. NAV was under pressure following VW announcing that it has suspended the Traton IPO due to unfavorable market conditions. Our EU team believes that uncertainty around Brexit may have contribut

5、ed to the decision, as pricing of the IPO could potentially have come in parallel with a “hard Brexit” decision. We think OSKs underperformance was a function of funding for the JLTV program being cut by 12% ($1.64B vs $1.85B before) for FY20 in the defense budget request from the administration. We

6、 would note that there is a difference between a “funding year” and when OSK recognizes revenues so the said cut would potentially be for 2021 and beyond for OSK. Considering that the 6.1K order that OSK got a few month back already takes the company to 2021 implies no near term impact from this. Th

7、e company is still on track to reaching FRP in the June / May timeframe and we dont think that small tweaks in funding like this have any broader implications for the program. Finally, AG data points were broadly mixed for February, with Germany largely stable (sequential trends largely in line with

8、 seasonality) while the US was healthy for 4- wheel drive, combines, and smaller tractors and Brazil was more mixed. Top picks DE andCAT.Engineering & Construction: News flow on E&C this week was relatively light with PWR and FLR outperforming the group. There was a good amount of call volume follow

9、ing the CS LNG conference last week reflecting optimism around LNG FIDs moving forward in 2019, coupled with a select group of players that can reasonably participate. Within our coverage universe, the best ways to play LNG remain FLR, KBR, and MDR. We believe FLRs win rate in LNG is much higher thi

10、s cycle, aided by teaming up with LNG club members JGC and TechnipFMC on projects like Rovuma LNG and even Lake Charles, following the recent win on LNG Canada. Investors have remained on the sidelines on FLR; however, we believe investors will re- engage if FLR can prove execution issues from 2018

11、have been resolved. MDR continues to win a fair amount of work which this week included a substantial EPCI surf award ($500-750M) from BP, in addition to being successful on the LNG front. Recall, MDR won Golden Pass and will be awarded Anadarko Mozambique LNG mid-year and is in the running for the

12、Rovuma LNG project, bidding against the FLR consortium. There is also a fair amount of interest on KBR although investors remain skeptical on whether the company is bidding on the projects that are less likely to go forward (i.e. OSMR technology and mid-scale LNG). We would note KBR could potentiall

13、y win Freeport Train 4, Lake Charles, or Nigeria Train 7 which have a higher probability of going forward. Last, MTZ hosted a sell side dinner on Monday night. The tone on oil and gas continues to be very positive with MTZ well positioned to book work extending beyond 2020. MTZ also noted the large

14、diameter pipeline projects present little risk to contactors as well as cited fairly good terms and conditions given the market is so tight. Also, MTZ continues to ramp investment on the Communications front given expected 5G spend and reiterated 20% plus growth both on wireless and wireline spend.

15、We believe the catalyst for MTZ to re-rate is the Communications business outpacing oil and gas which is viewed as more cyclical vs the secular growth in wireless andwireline.Jamie Cook, CFAResearch AnalystThemis DavrisResearch AnalystKevin WilsonResearch AnalystAlexander KhanResearch Analyst212-538

16、-6098+44 207 888 1060212-325-5079212-325-7714 HYPERLINK mailto:jamie.cook jamie.co HYPERLINK mailto:ok ok HYPERLINK mailto:themis.davris themis.da HYPERLINK mailto:vris vris HYPERLINK mailto:kevin.wilson kevin.wilson HYPERLINK mailto:alexander.khan alexander.khanDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF TH

17、IS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGALENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a confl

18、ict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.MACHINERY / MULTI-INDUSTRYMACHINERY / MULTI-INDUSTRYMachinery sector (Machine tools) Preliminary Feb orders: Orders down nearly 30% YoY;

19、steep decline a negative surprise: CS analyst Shinji Kuroda published the following in a note: Orders fall to just over 100bn mark for the first time in 25 months: The Japan Machine Tool Builders Association (JMTBA) released preliminary orders figures for February at 3:00 p.m. on 11 March (Mon). Ord

20、ers were down 29% YoY and down roughly 13% MoM to 109.7bn, falling well below our forecast of 129bn (down 17% YoY). Domestic demand fell 28% YoY and 11% MoM to41.6bn (our forecast 53bn), and external demand fell 30% and 13% to 68.1bn (our forecast75.8bn). Both domestic and external demand fell by ar

21、ound 30% YoY, as overall orders declined to just over 100bn for the first time in 25 months, which leaves a negative impression. We will need to wait for the release of final numbers on 20 March, but our impression is that the downturn in orders has spread from China to Europe, the US and now Japan.

22、 Previously, a monthly machine tool orders total of over 100bn was viewed as a sign of a healthy market, with the 100bn mark viewed as a sort of boom-bust line. Since the latter half of 2017, however, monthly orders have been consistently over the 150bn mark, and we had even started to hear some mac

23、hine tool makers suggest that 150bn was the new boom-bust line. February numbers, however, suggest that orders have now returned to normal cycle levels, similar to what we have seen with earlier talk of the semiconductor super cycle. We also expect fewer market participants to back the idea of machi

24、ne tool orders bottoming out as early as JanMar. Reiterating UNDERPERFORM on Fanuc: The above is negative for Fanuc (6954, UNDERPERFORM, TP 13,000). Fanucs shares currently offer a dividend yield of roughly 6%, and the stock may be a relatively solid performer until the ex-dividend date (27 March).

25、As we saw from late September through late October, however, we believe there is a risk of a correction of over 20% as we move toward what is likely to be a disappointing results release (and a possible step back on shareholder returns) in late April. We also see potential share price downside for c

26、ompanies such as Amada (6113, NEUTRAL, TP1,200) and Okuma (6103, NEUTRAL, TP 5,500), which complete share buybacks on 15 March (Fri) and 22 March (Fri), as well as for DMG Mori Seiki (6141, NEUTRAL, TP 1,600), due to lingering European-related risk. ( HYPERLINK /s/V7gko64AF-ZGHf Link to Note)The Man

27、itowoc Company, Inc. Announces Pricing of $300 Million of Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due 2026: Manitowoc announced the following in a press release on Monday: The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (NYSE: MTW) (“Manitowoc”) announced today that it has priced its previously announced private offering (the

28、 “Offering”) of $300,000,000 aggregate principal amount of senior secured second lien notes due 2026 (the “Notes”). The Notes will have an interest rate of 9.000% per annum and are being issued at a price equal to 100.000% of their face value. The Notes will be guaranteed on a senior secured second

29、lien basis, jointly and severally, by each of Manitowocs domestic subsidiaries that will guarantee its new asset-based revolving credit facility (the “New ABL Credit Facility”). The Offering is expected to close on March 25, 2019, subject to market and other conditions, including Manitowoc entering

30、into the New ABL Credit Facility. There can be no assurance that the Offering will be completed on a timely basis, or at all. Manitowoc expects its net proceeds from the Offering, after deducting discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses payable by Manitowoc, to be approximately $294

31、.0 million. Manitowoc intends to use the net proceeds from the Offering, together with proceeds from the initial extension of credit under the New ABL Credit Facility, to (i) redeem all of its outstanding 12.75% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due 2021; (ii) repay all obligations outstanding, and t

32、erminate all commitments, under (x) its existing $225.0 million asset-based revolving credit facility and (y) its existing $75.0 million accounts receivable securitization program; and (iii) pay related fees and expenses, including applicable premiums. Manitowoc intends to use any remaining net proc

33、eeds for general corporate purposes. The Notes will be sold to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on Rule 144A and outside the United States to non-U.S. persons in reliance on Regulation S. The Notes and related guarantees have not been, and will not be, reg

34、istered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction and, unless so registered, may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirem

35、ents of the Securities Act and applicable state securities laws. This shall not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, the Notes or any other securities and shall not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a sale of, the Notes or any other s

36、ecurities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale isunlawful.CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENTCONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENTConstruction Equipment Re-energized: Connecting the Dots Between E&C and Machinery:Following up from our HYPERLINK /s/V7drKj4AF-ZGHf E&C Blueprint note and CS LNG Conference

37、, we are taking a closer look at the potential impact of major energy awards moving forward to construction equipment demand. The Next LNG Wave is Coming: CS hosted its second annual LNG conference last week. The tone across the board was universally positive with the consensus view that the industr

38、y is required to add between 100-250mtpa of capacity by the 2025 timeframe in order to meet the supply- demand imbalance. This means that final investment decisions, or FIDs, should begin to accelerate further following recent FIDs on LNG Canada and Golden Pass. Looking ahead, there are numerous LNG

39、 projects expected to move ahead over the next two years including Anadarko Mozambique, Nigeria Train 7, Lake Charles LNG, Magnolia LNG, Freeport Train 4, Cheniere Corpus Christi Midscale Expansion, Arctic LNG 2, Rio Grande LNG and Eni / Exxon Mozambique which will translate into at least $50B plus

40、of capex spend alone for LNG. In fact, this cycle could be larger relative to the prior cycle, further aided large petrochemical/downstream spend which are highlighted in this report in addition to LNG. E&C Backlog Poised to Go Higher: Backlog for select E&Cs is standing at $110B at the end of 2018

41、while energy backlog is at $30.5B so roughly 25% of total. At the peak of the energy cycle in 2014, energy backlog was over $70B which represented over 55% of total E&C backlog at the time. Since 2008, E&C backlogs are growing at a CAGR of only 3% which is basically in line with GDP. If we assume th

42、at energy backlog climbs back to $60B (still below the prior peak of $70B) that implies 25% backlog growth for E&Cs from 2018 levels. Bodes Well For Construction Equipment: Energy spend represents anywhere from 5-20% of total construction equipment demand broadly. With energy projects going FID in 2

43、019, construction should break ground in 2020 and beyond creating an extended cycle. While most investors are bearish reflecting concerns on cycle and/or non-residential, we believe investors underappreciate the pending energy cycle that should continue to support healthy demand for construction equ

44、ipment globally. Top picks remain CAT and DE. ( HYPERLINK /s/V7gkBE4AF-ZGHf Link toNote)CAT February Retail Sales Statistics: Construction sales healthy, Resources growth slows down on tougher comps: CAT reported February retail stats, citing Machine sales up 7% y/y, largely similar to January that

45、was up 9%. Construction sales were healthy at up 8%, vs up 7% last month with weakness in Asia/Pacific improving and all other regions holding up. Construction demand in North America was solid up 13%, vs up 15% last month, EAME was up 10%, vs up 12% last month, while Lat. Am. was up 9%, vs up 4% in

46、 January. The only negative area in Construction was Asia/Pacific down 2%, though this was an improvement relative to January which was down 10%. Resources sales were up 7%, vs up 17% last month though on tougher comps. North America was up 17%, vs up 44% last month on tougher comps, EAME was largel

47、y stable at down 13% vs down 9% last month on similar comps while Asia/Pacific was up 12% vs up 23% in January, with comps getting tougher. Lat. Am. improved to up 18% from up 4% last month. E&T sales post modest drop pressured by O&G: E&T sales inflected negative at down 1% in February, vs up 8% in

48、 January on slightly tougher comps. The weakness was primarily in O&G where sales were down 10% vs a 4% increase in January. Industrial was largely stable at down 3% vs down 4% last month. Power Gen was up 8% vs. up 16% last month on tougher comps while transportation was up 10% vs up 23% last month

49、. ( HYPERLINK /s/V7glrg4AF-ZGHf Link toNote)AG EQUIPMENTAG EQUIPMENTUS / Canada Ag Data: US and Canada tractor sales up 16% in Jan. on easy comps, combines up8%. Our Take: 4-wheel drive, combines and smaller tractors appear healthy, though 2-wheel drive over 100HP needs monitoring given declines on

50、easy comps.German Tractor Data: German tractors up 51% in Feb. with HHP up 41%. Our Take: Comps are very easy given mother regulations impact from last year. Sequential trends are largely in line with seasonality suggesting stablemarket.Brazil Tractor Data: Brazil Tractors up 4% in Feb., combines up

51、 71% on easy comps. Our Take: Mixed given HHP tractors (over 80HP) were down 22% while smaller tractors (less than 80HP) were up 36% and combines werehealthy.Kubota Preliminary Feb retail sales (US/Thailand): Double-digit growth YoY in retail volume: CS analyst Shinji Kuroda published the following

52、in a note: Signs also of market share growth in the US: February retail volume for the US and Thailand announced by Kubota on 12 March showed an increase of more than 10% YoY in tractors, flat YoY performance in general- purpose equipment (mowers and utility vehicles), and a 210% increase in constru

53、ction machinery in the US. In a telephone interview, management commented that it has secured higher volumegrowth than reported by the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) in the US. However, considering JanFeb are off-demand months and the fact that Kubota plans a 23% price increase from Ma

54、rch, a surge in demand ahead of the price increase may have boosted Kubotas retail figures, so we intend to closely monitor trends. Also, Thailand retail volume rose by more than 10% YoY in an ongoing brisk performance. In any case, JanFeb retail volume in the US and Thailand was more favorable than

55、 we had estimated. We maintain our 1,900 target price and OUTPERFORM rating. ( HYPERLINK /s/V7glSl4AF-ZGHf Link to Note)TRUCKS / TRANSPORTSTRUCKS / TRANSPORTSBrazil Truck Data: Brazil semi-heavy and heavy truck was up 79% in Feb. (vs. up 71% last monthand up 63% last Feb). Our Take: This is a modest

56、 positive for group although comps become more difficult in March.China Heavy Duty Truck Sector Takeaways from heavy truck dealer tour: CS analyst Wei Fang published the following in a note: We hosted a heavy duty truck (HDT) dealer tour during 11- 13 March 2019 and visited HDT dealers in Suzhou, Wu

57、han and Changsha. Key takeaway is that HDT orders in March show 10% YoY decline. Logistics trucks sales dropped by 15-20% YoY in all three regions. Construction trucks demand is largely YoY flat in Wuhan and Changsha. Suzhou has weak construction truck sales, after concentrated replacement of dump t

58、rucks in 2018. Dealers generally have YoY flat sales volume growth targets for 2019 (set by truck makers). Thus, they feel increasing market competition amid YoY weaker HDT demand. Truck makers require dealers to provide Rmb3-5k or 1-1.5% price discount, vs zero in 1H18. After such a discount, deale

59、rs make thin profit from new truck sales. Agent fee on insurance/mortgage is the major profit source. Regarding China 6 emission standard, all three regions are not likely to implement China 6 for heavy diesel vehicles in 2019. The Suzhou HDT dealer expects Jiangsu province to kick-off China 6 from

60、July 2020 (one-year ahead of national date), while Hubei/Hunan are expected to implement with the national timeline from July 2021. ( HYPERLINK /s/V7gm8W4AF-ZGHf Link toNote)Volkswagen Traton IPO suspended: CS analyst Daniel Schwarz published the following in a note: Traton IPO suspended: VW has ann