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1、安 徽 工 业 大 学英 文 翻 译译文名称1、中国在线拍卖市场淘宝和易趣的竞争研究2、系统设计和开发学 院 管理科学与工程学院专业班级息022姓 名鲍乃利学 号0290943312006年6月10日The Online Auction Market in China - A Comparative Study between Taobao and eBayAbstractThe success of the online consumer-to-consumer auction is largely owing to the widely accepted online reputation
2、 system. In particular, studying the fast growing online auction markets in China, a country with the largest population in the world, will provide the important outcomes in revealing the trend of global electronic market. Encouraged by the previous research achievement on eBays online reputation sy
3、stem, this paper is intended to report the research findings on the online auction market in China using the online reputation data collected from Taobao - a Chinese version of online auction marketplace. By comparing between the data from Taobao and eBay we found that the distribution of Chinese on
4、line traders 6-month reputation scores is lognormal; both negative feedback rates and neutral feedback rates of Taobaos reputation data are also lognormally distributed the same as that of eBay These are the same as the reputation score distributions in eBay. However, the higher neutral scores in Ta
5、obao indicate the difference in the cultural aspect contrasting to that of eBay.KeywordsReputation; consumer-to-consumer auction; electronic commerce; market structure; lognormal distribution1. ONLINE C2C AUCTION IN CHINA1.1 An Overview of Chinas Online Auction MarketAccording to the semi-annual sur
6、vey conducted by CNNIC (China Internet Network Information Center, :/www /), the population of Internet users in China has reached 87 million in July 2004 and the figurejumped to 94 million a half year later. With the phenomenal growth rate of the online users, the development of the E-commerce mark
7、et has galloped simultaneously (Figure 1).The unique infrastructure of e-commerce in China, particularly the online C2C and business-to-consumer (B2C) market, has been shaped and dominated by three major leaders yet competitors in the online auction market: eBayEachnet, a wholly-owned subsidiary of
8、eBay; 1pai, a joint-venture company between Yahoo and the Chinese portal company Sina; and Taobao, a joint-venture marketplace owned by Alibaba and Softbank.Among the three major players, eBayEachnet and Taobao are about the similar size and lead the online auction market, and 1pai is at the third p
9、lace. The following are more detailed introduction to the three e-commerce companies.1) eBayEachnet ( :/ ebay )Shanghai-based EachNet was started in 1999 by two Chinese Harvard graduates. In 2004, EachNet claimed to have more than 10 million users with the transactions of 3 billion yuan (about US$36
10、0 million) in merchandise. eBay acquired one third of shares of EachNet in 2002. In 2004 eBay paid US$150 million to finally take over EachNet. Since the continual investment in technology platforms and marketing is draining its profitability, eBayEachnet remained unprofitable, although it has been
11、experiencing a fast growth in both the trader population and the total transaction volume.2) 1pai ( :/cn.auctions.yahoo )After the debut made in March 2004, 1pai has experienced phenomenal growth with the following months, featured by more than 700,000 items transacted in every single day. Supported
12、 by the source of more than 100 million registered users gathered by Sina and the experienced managerial team dispatched by Yahoo, the online auction marketplace has been completed by merely a quarter of a year. In the consideration of the security for the payment system, 1pai has launched the count
13、erpart to the eBays Paypal, named as “1 pai tong, meaning “One payment for all. During the fierce struggle between eBay Eachnet and Taobao, 1pai just quietly improves its online auction platform and service support strategy.3) Taobao ( :/ taobao )Invested by the largest business-to-business e-commer
14、ce company in China Alibaba, Taobao ( taobao ) was founded in July 2003. The name Taobao has a strong cultural meaning, as is interpreted as “treasure rush, based upon the fictional characters in Chinese historical novels.Before Taobao launched in the summer of 2003, eBay was the only player in Chin
15、as online C2C market. However, Taobao fast grew from about 9% of the online auction market share in China in the first quarter of 2004 to 41% by the fourth quarter of the same year. According to recent Alexa report ( HYPERLINK . alexa ), Taobao is ranked the 23rd most popular website in the world, a
16、head of all e-commerce sites in China. For providing a vivid view of the magic development, we collect two histograms to fulfill the demonstration, shown inFigure 2.The following are a few recent most important events about Taobao: On November 12, 2004 Alibaba started to negotiate with Microsoft on
17、cooperation in the online auction business; On December 15, 2004, Taobao and film maker Huayi Brothers reached the agreement on setting up a special zone on Taobaos website for Huayi Brothers new film Tian Xia Wu Zei (The World Without Thieves). Many items used in filming the movie are auctioned on
18、Taobaos. According to Taobao, the most popular film related items have received up to 10,000 hits. On March 3, 2005, Taobao announced that the company will partner with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to promote Alibabas third party payment platform Zhi Fu Bao to Chinese e-commerce websites.
19、The online payment system is undoubtedly the key of Taobaos innovation, which is titled Alipai (also named in Chinese “zhi fu bao meaning “A valuable payment system) established for the integration of the incisive analysis of the deficiency of the conventional wisdom. It is supposed to have resolved
20、 the payment problems that is typically significant in China, such as“Buyer does not want to send money before seeing the goods; seller does not want to ship the goods before receiving money.Alipai is proved to be rewarding for it is responsible for 79% of listings on Taobao. Compared to 21% of list
21、ings on eBayEachnet transacted via its counterpart, Alipai intrigues the public why the payment system is so successful on Taobao. The report published in April 2004 announced that the growth rate of 768% at Taobao was greater than that of any other domestic website in China. Meanwhile, Taobao is al
22、so featured by its No.1 place of other important indexes indicating the quality of the online individual transaction. For instance, the success of the transaction rate locates the top of the list, and nearly quadrupled within twelve months. Nowadays, the real online quantity of thecommodity in Taoba
23、o has reached nearly 2 million.In general, Chinas online auction market can be characterized as the follows: Low penetration of C2C e-commerce at present only about 12% of them are regular online shoppers (vs. 30%+ in the US) with a rapid growth of e-commerce market Localization of market service e.
24、g. targeting at individual consumers, Taobao poises its marketplace in Chinese cultural sensibilities to foster a strong user community.The above shows that the online auction market in China has huge potential and the difference in culture background and social structure will call for further resea
25、rch to provide insightful guidelines to the market evolution.1.2 The Reputation System on TaobaoTaobaos reputation system is the most popular and successful one in China. Although it is similar to that of eBay, we can tell the differences from Figure 4 that Taobao differentiates its reputation infor
26、mation from eBays reputation forum by classifying the reputation scores into buying and selling. This makes the reputation report more informative. A trading partner can justify the trading risk using different types of reputation statistics information with regard to the traders role in a specific
27、transaction.In general, reputation systems help manage risks and promote cooperation. A strong positive reputation score reduces buyers risk perception and enhances their trust perception only when there is no negative feedback , and a negative reputation score has a greater impact on the ability of
28、 sellers to sell their products at higher prices than a positive reputation . A seller with a higher negative reputation score is forced to sell his products at a lower price than will a seller with a lower negative reputation score. Potential buyers are more sensitive to negative feedbacks than pos
29、itive feedbacks when they plan to buy used or refurbished products. Therefore, we can expect that the sellers in the online auction market of Taobao will behave the same way as those in eBay: to promote the positive reputation, simultaneously, maintain the negative score as little as possible. Fully
30、 aware sellers psychological trait, some buyers gouge the sellers to reduce the price by threatening the negative scoring. Paradoxically, the reputation system on Taobao acts like a double-edge sword to reduce the transaction risk as well as increase at the same time.Though the above is common to al
31、l online reputation systems for C2C markets, due to their different cultural background of the online traders in China, the differentiated design of the reputation information provision system, and the specialties of e-commerce environment in China, there must be some subtledifferences between the o
32、nline reputation statistics from that of eBay. Therefore, we followed the approach used by, to conduct a series of online reputation data analyses. The results are reported in the follow-up section.2. DATA ANALYSES AND DISCUSSIONS2.1 Methodology and data collectionWe investigated the 6-month reputat
33、ion scores of Taobao , including positive, negative and neutral scores, and randomly collected 200 sellers records (the dataset is denoted as TB050227) compared with the 408 records of the same type of data (S-030116) collected from eBay in January 2003. Thedetails about the procedure for the collec
34、tion of the eBay data are covered in. The Taobao data collection procedure is rather simpler but follows the same one as used by Lin et al for eBay reputation data collection. In the following subsections, we will present the data analysis outcomes based on the approaches used by Lin et al with the
35、extension in the neutral data analysis.2.2 Overall statistics of 6-month reputation scoresFrom Table 1, we can identify that:1) The percentages of sellers who have received feedbacks in two datasets, collected respectively from Taobao and eBay, are about the same (94% vs. 97%);2) The percentage of s
36、ellers in Taobao having received negative feedbacks is lower than that of eBay;3) The percentage of sellers in Taobao having received neutral feedbacks is a little bit higher than that of eBay;4) The average reputation scores the Taobao sellers have received is much lower than that of sellers in eBa
37、y. Most of the above phenomena are consistent to the different seniority levels of online sellers in the two C2C auction sites. The unusual situation of neutral scores comparison is to be explored further.2.3 Market structure of TaobaoLin et al 12 investigate eBays market structure with the distribu
38、tion of reputation scores. Market structure as an important topic in previous industrial organization research has long been a proliferate field 19. The traditional approach studies the distribution of firm size or revenue to identify anumber of interesting issues, such as markets growth, firm entry
39、 and exit, and the market concentration. The most well-known initial research effort is by Robert Gibrat 7, who pointed out that the lognormality of firm size distributionindicated the proportionate growth of the market (see the appendix for the information about the lognormal distribution).Further
40、work by Kalecki 9, Simon and Bonini 16, Singh and Whittington 17, etc. has gradually enriched the market structure theory from different aspects. However, the traditionally tangible indicators for market structure research, such as firm size and revenue, are difficult to obtain from the online marke
41、tplaces because of the nature of anonymity. In order to apply the well-established economic theory to e-market structure research, Lin et al 12 suggest that the online reputation scores can be used as the measure of firm capacity to study electronic market structure: “In the business context, there
42、are many different economic and non-economic signals about a conventional firms capacity, such as marketing information, accounting reports, social responsibility, media visibility, and so on 5. The rationale of our method is that reputation can be basically regarded as the impression and assessment
43、 of a social entitys esteem or desirability 5. A social entity, either an individual or a firm, builds his or its reputation based on all past behaviors 4. At the macro level, sociologists and business scholars have long recognized reputation as an indicator of social stratification 15 and industria
44、l stratification 6, which helps to categorize a person or a firm into different strata. Similarly, the online reputation also signals the firms capacity in the online context.Lin et al 12 report that the 6-month total reputation scores of eBay sellers are lognormally distributed, which indicates the
45、 match to the Gibrats law. Then the further exploration of the research reveals the growth pattern of eBays market with regard to different levels of periodic transaction volume.In light of this research, we used the same approach to study the distribution of total reputation scores of Taobao seller
46、s in 6 months. The Wald-statistics of the logarithm of the total reputation scores is 2.062, which is less than 2(d=2, = 0.05) = 5.99, the critical value of normality test 8. Therefore we can not reject the hypothesis that the total 6-month reputation scores distribution of the Taobao sellers is log
47、normally distributed. In addition, the positive 6-month reputation scores of the Taobao sellers are also lognormally distributed (Wald-statistics = 2.470).Based on the proportionate growth assumption, we can hypothesize that the change of sellers total reputation scores is proportionate. Figure 5 co
48、mpares the histograms of total 6-month reputation scores from the logarithms of the two datasets.中国在线拍卖市场淘宝和易趣的竞争研究摘 要:C2C在线拍卖的成功很大程度上取决于网上诚信系统被广泛接受,中国拥有世界最大的人口基数,对快速开展的中国在线拍卖系统的研究将为全球电子市场的开展趋势提供重要的数据。之前对eBay在线诚信系统的研究取得了成功,受此鼓舞,本文将通过对淘宝在线诚信数据的收集,呈现对中国拍卖市场的研究发现。通过对淘宝和eBay数据的比照,我们发现中国六个月在线交易者的信誉指数是呈对数
49、形态分布的,而且中评和差评树也是以呈对数分布的这与eBay的信誉指数分布是一致的。然而,淘宝的最高中评分数与eBay的差异说明了文化的差异。关键字:诚信、C2C、拍卖、电子商务、市场构架、对数分布1、中国的C2C在线拍卖1.1 中国在线拍卖系统概况根据CNNIC中国互联网信息中心半年一次的调查说明:到2004年7月中国互联网用户已经到达8700万,半年后将增至9400万。随着互联网用户的迅速增加,电子商务市场也将呈现高速增长。如图1中国电子商务市场概况资料来源:iResearch咨询公司,2004年中国在线拍卖报告中国电子商务市场良好的根底建设特别是C2C和B2C市场)已经完成并且三家主要的竞
50、争公司已经占据了在线拍卖市场。eBay易趣,eBay的全资子公司一拍网,雅虎和中国门户网站新浪组建的合资公司淘宝,阿里巴巴和软银合资成立的公司三个主要的市场操作者,eBay易趣和淘宝的规模相似,是在线拍卖市场的领导者。一拍位列第三。下面将详细介绍三家电子商务企业1eBay易趣 :/ ebay 总部位于上海的易趣成立于1999年,由两位中国哈佛留学生建立。2004年易趣宣称已经有1000万的用户,且商品交易额到达30亿元大约3亿6千万美金。2002年eBay拥有易趣1/3的股份,2004年eBay以1亿5千万美金全资收购易趣。尽管在交易用户和总交易量上一直保持持续增长,但由于在电子平台和市场建设
51、上的连续追加投资,eBay易趣并没有实现盈利。2一拍( :/cn.auctions.yahoo )自2004年三月首次进入市场,一拍在接下来的几个月经历了高速增长,突出表现为每天的商品交易量超过70万。受新浪高达一亿注册用户和雅虎的经验丰富的管理团队的支持,仅用了三个月的时间,一拍的在线拍卖市场就完全建立。考虑到支付系统的平安问题,一拍发布了与eBay贝宝功能相似的“一拍通,意指“完成全部交易的支付系统,在eBay易趣和淘宝的剧烈竞争中,一拍安静地实施其提高在线拍卖平台和效劳支持战略3淘宝( :/ taobao )淘宝于2003年7月由中国最大B2B电子商务公司阿里巴巴投资成立,“淘宝这个名字
52、有着深刻的文化含义,即“淘金热建立在中国历史小说的虚拟形象上。2003年夏天,即淘宝进入市场之前,eBay在中国C2C市场一家独大。然而,2004年淘宝实现了高速增长,其市场份额由9%第一季度增至40%第三季度。根据最近Alexa报告,淘宝在世界最受关注的公司中位列23,位列中国电子商务公司之首。为了形象地表达其神奇的开展经历,我们用两个直方图来说明图二 淘宝GMV增长 淘宝的注册用户图二、淘宝的市场增长价值 图三、淘宝的用户增户资料来源:iResearch咨询公司,2004年中国在线拍卖报告下面是淘宝最近发生的大事件: 2004年11月12日 2004年12月15日,淘宝与电影制片商华谊兄弟
53、达成合作协议,即在淘宝网上为华谊兄弟的新电影?天下无贼?开辟专区,电影中使用的道具都将在淘宝网上进行拍卖,即淘宝统计,这部最受欢送的电影拍卖的道具已达10000件。 2005年3月3日,淘宝宣布将与中国工商银行合作,在中国电子商务网站推广阿里巴巴的第三方支付工具支付宝。毫无疑问,在线支付系统是淘宝创新的关键,Alipai中文命名为支付宝,意指“可信赖的支付系统的建立是对传统智慧进行敏锐地分析的融合,事实证明,支付宝解决了中国存在的巨大的支付问题,例如“买家在收到货物之前不愿支付、卖价在收到货款之前不愿发货等问题。实践说明,Alipai收到淘宝79%的用户的信赖,相比eBay易趣相似系统21%的
54、用户交易支持率,Alipai在淘宝上的极大成功让人迷惑。2004年4月发布的报告显示,淘宝的增长率到达768%,超过中国外乡的其他任何一家网站。同时最为突出的还有一些重要数据,这些数据说明淘宝占据了中国1/4在线个人交易,位列中国第一。例如,交易率在一年内增长了接近四倍,这个成功取决于最高的用户。总的来说,中国在线拍卖市场具有如下特征: 目前低渗透的C2C电子商务只有12%的用户是经常的在线购置者这一比率在美国高达30%高速增长的电子商务市场。 市场效劳的局限性例如,只锁定个体消费者。淘宝通过中国文化的感染性来培养强大的用户群来平衡市场。 上述情况说明,中国在线拍卖市场有巨大的潜力和不同的文化
55、背景,社会文化需要更深的研究为市场变革提供有远景的指导。1.2 淘宝的诚信系统在中国,淘宝的诚信系统最受欢送并且最成功。尽管这个系统与eBay的很相似,但从图4中,我们可以看到二者的差异。淘宝通过将买家和卖家信誉分类整理来突出与eBay信誉社区的差异,这种方法使信誉报告更具有价值性。在特殊的交易中,一方交易者可以通过与另一方交易者角色信誉等级信息来判断交易的风险。一般来说,诚信系统可以帮助减少风险并促成交易的达成。只有在没有差评的根底上,高好评分数可以减少购置者的购置风险同时增强信誉度。出售相同的商品,有差评的卖家的价格很难高过只有好评的卖家,差评指数高的卖家将不得不将价风格到最低,在购置二手
56、或翻新产品过程中,潜在的买家对差评更为敏感。因此,我们可以想象到,淘宝在线拍卖市场的卖家将会与eBay的用户一样:在不断增加好评的同时,保持尽可能的少的差评。考虑卖家的心理特点,一些买家会用差评作筹码是卖家降低价格。相反,淘宝的诚信系统就像一把双刃剑,在降低风险的同时提高交易量。尽管上述情况在C2C在线诚信系统方面是很平常的,但是由于中国交易者不同的文化背景以及在线诚信信息提供系统的差异化设计,同时由于中国电子商务环境的特殊性,淘宝的在线诚信统计与eBay的存在着一些细微的差异。因此,我们遵循由Li, D. and Z. Lin, Lin, Z., D. Li, B. Janamanchi,
57、and W. Huang, Lin, Z., D. Li, and W. Huang总结的法那么来进行在线诚信数据分析。这些数据会表达在下面的章节中。2、数据分析和讨论2.1 方法和数据收集我们研究淘宝网六个月的诚信分数,包括好评、差评和中评,并随机收集了200位卖家的评价与eBay2003年1月份相同类型的408条进行比拟分析,分析结果如下: 1从淘宝和eBay分别收集的数据看,两组数据中卖家收到反应的百分比根本相同分别为94%、97%。 2淘宝卖家收到的差评比率低于eBay. 3淘宝的卖家收到的中评略高于eBay. 4淘宝卖家收到的平均信誉指数要远低于eBay。 上述现象与两个在线拍卖网站
58、的卖家不同的平安水平相一致的。而不同情况下的中评分数将会分进一步研究。 淘宝的市场结构Lin et al 根据信誉分数分类研究了eBay的市场结构,在之前的工业组织研究中,市场结构一直作为增值领域的一个重要的指标。传统方法通过对公司规模或收入的分类研究来确定一些有意义的问题,如市场增长率,公司进入和退出以及市场集中度。最著名的内部研究方法是由Robert Gibrat提出的,他指出公司大小分类的对数形态说明了市场市呈一定比例增长的。由Kalecki ,Simon and Bonini , Singh and Whittington 进行的进一步研究逐步从不同方面丰富了市场结构理论。然而,传统市
59、场结构研究的固定指标,如公司规模和收入,由于存在在线市场匿名的特点,因此很难获得。为了将建立完整的经济理论运用到电子商场结构研究中,Lin et al 认为可以把在线信誉分数用到公司能力的评价中,进而研究电子市场结构。Lin et al 指出eBay六个月卖家的总信誉分数是成对数分布的,这说明这个结果与Gibrat法那么是一致的。而且近一步的数据挖掘显示eBay的市场增长类型与阶段性交易量的不同水平相关。根据这项研究,我们用同样的方法对淘宝进行处理。总信誉分数的对数统计为2.062,比标准测试的严格标准少2(d=2, 。因此我们不能否认这个假设,即淘宝六个月的信誉分数是符合对数分布的。另外,淘
60、宝卖家六个月的好评分数也符合对数分布。基于均衡增长的假设前提,我们可以假设卖家总信誉分数的变化是按照一定比例进行的。System design and developmentDuring the development phase, the team takes the initial use case and service model and performs a deep dive: The functional specifications of each use case is built by elaborating on the major steps that compose
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