IT硬件：进入云的刚刚好时代

1、1DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITYDISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should b

2、e aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Credit Suisse Equity Research AmericasIT Hardware InitiationEntering the Goldilocks Era of CloudAp

3、ril 11th, 2019RESEARCH ANALYSTSMatt Cabral Daniel Knauff Michael Allen+1.415.249.7929+1.415.249.7925+1.415.249.7926 HYPERLINK mailto:Matthew.Cabral matthew.cabralcredit HYPERLINK mailto:Matthew.Cabral - HYPERLINK mailto:Matthew.Cabral HYPERLINK mailto:Daniel.Knauff daniel.knauffcredit HYPERLINK mail

4、to:Daniel.Knauff - HYPERLINK mailto:Daniel.Knauff HYPERLINK mailto:Michael.Allen michael.allencredit HYPERLINK mailto:Michael.Allen - HYPERLINK mailto:Michael.Allen IT Hardware Coverage Overview4 Outperforms, 1 Underperform, 4 NeutralsTickerCompany NameCS RatingMkt CapTarget PriceUpside/ DownsideOne

5、 LinerIBMInternational Business MachinesOutperform$129bn$17322%IBM and Red Hat create a powerful combination to accelerate hybrid cloud adoption; we see 10% FCF accretion within 3 yearsNTAPNetAppOutperform$19bn$8922%Multiple levers to upside, with tailwinds from all-flash mix and a Services inflecti

6、on coupled with opex leverageCDWCDW Corp.Outperform$15bn$11715%Long-term, secular share gain story vs. US IT Spending, with an added kicker from International; 55% CFROIXRXXeroxOutperform$14bn$4226%Early in a multi-year margin expansion and FCF story; significant levers to both that are underappreci

7、ated by marketHPEHewlett Packard EnterpriseUnderperform$33bn$14-12%Fading IT Spending tailwinds return focus to building risks on largest (Compute) and highest-margin (Pointnext) segmentsAAPLAppleNeutral$952bn$2095%The push to monetize Apples installed base through Services holds potential, but will

8、 take time to shift investor perception vs. double-digit iPhone declines and at a peak P/E multipleDELLDell TechnologiesNeutral$46bn$655%Solid execution in CY18, but high leverage leaves little room for error and constrains capital allocation for years to comeHPQHP Inc.Neutral$31bn$217%Supplies a ke

9、y concern following the disappointing inventory reset; steady as she goes on PC share gains and FCFPSTGPure StorageNeutral$6bn$230%Technological leader in all-flash, but advantage vs. peers narrowing and long-term profitability goals still a ways offSource: Credit Suisse Research, FactSetMatt Cabral

10、 | 415-249-7929 | HYPERLINK mailto:matthew.cabral matthew.cabral2IT Hardware Coverage OverviewLinks to our full company reportsOutperform : HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb Internationa HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb l HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb Busines HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb s HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb

11、Machine HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb s HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb (IBM) HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb : HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb A HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb Landmar HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb k HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb Shif HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb t HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb o HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz

12、2AN-Ytkb n HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb th HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb Journe HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb y HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb t HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb o HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb Hybrid HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb ; HYPERLINK /r/_XlTz2AN-Ytkb Outperform HYPERLIN

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14、ERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb d HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb Winne HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb r HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb wit HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb h HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb Multipl HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb Lever HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb s HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb

15、 t HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb o HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb Upside HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb ; HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb Outperform HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb T HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb P HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb $ HYPERLINK /r/_XlSE2AN-Ytkb 89 HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN

16、-Ytkb CD HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb W HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb Cor HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb p HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb (CDW) HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb : HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb SMB HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb Shar HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2

17、AN-Ytkb Gains HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb an HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb d HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb International HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb ; HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb Outperform HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb T HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb P HYP

18、ERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb $ HYPERLINK /r/_XlSM2AN-Ytkb 117 HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb Xero HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb x HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb (XRX) HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb : HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb Earl HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb y HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb i HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb n H

19、YPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb th HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb Multi HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb - HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb Yea HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb r HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb Margin/FC HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb F HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb Story HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN

20、-Ytkb ; HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb Outperform HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb T HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb P HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb $ HYPERLINK /r/_XlSm2AN-Ytkb 42Underperform : HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb Hewlet HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb t HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb Pack

21、ar HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb d HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb Enterpris HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb (HPE) HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb : HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb Focu HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb s HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb o HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb n HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN

22、-Ytkb Comput HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb an HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb d HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb Pointnex HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb t HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb a HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb s HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb Risk HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb s HYPERLINK /r/_X

23、lSa2AN-Ytkb Build HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb ; HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb Underperform HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb T HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb P HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb $ HYPERLINK /r/_XlSa2AN-Ytkb 14Neutral: HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb Appl HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb

24、e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb Inc HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb . HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb (AAPL) HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb : HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb Service HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb s HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb Potentia HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb l HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb vs HYPERLINK /r/_Xl

25、SQ2AN-Ytkb . HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb iPhon HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb Maturation HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb ; HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb Neutral HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb T HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb P HYPERLINK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb $ HYPERLI

26、NK /r/_XlSQ2AN-Ytkb 209 HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb Del HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb l HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb Technologie HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb s HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb (DELL) HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb : HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb Hig HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb h HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytk

27、b Leverag HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb Leave HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb s HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb Littl HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb Roo HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb m HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb fo HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb r HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh

28、2AN-Ytkb Error HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb ; HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb Neutral HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb T HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb P HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb $ HYPERLINK /r/_XlSh2AN-Ytkb 65 HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb H HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb P HYPERLINK /r/_XlS

29、R2AN-Ytkb Inc HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb . HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb (HPQ) HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb : HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb It HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb s HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb Al HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb l HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb Abou HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb t HYPERLINK /r/_Xl

30、SR2AN-Ytkb th HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb Supplies HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb ; HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb Neutral HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb T HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb P HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb $ HYPERLINK /r/_XlSR2AN-Ytkb 21 HYPERLINK /

31、r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb Pur HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb Storag HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb (PSTG) HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb : HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb Pur HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb All HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb - HYPER

32、LINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb Flash HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb Bu HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb t HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb Advantag HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb e HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb Narrowing HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb Neutral HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo

33、2AN-Ytkb , HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb T HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb P HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb $ HYPERLINK /r/_XlSo2AN-Ytkb 23Industry Views at a GlanceKey ThemeOur ViewHow to ParticipateEntering the Goldilocks Era of Cloud; Hybrid is “Just Right”Hybrid critical as public/private debate reaches equ

34、ilibriumCustomers are beginning to rethink their cloud strategy, as they look to modernize increasingly mission-critical workloads; vast majority have “repatriated” some applications from public cloudA hybrid-first approach brings together the best of both worlds; customers get the agility and flexi

35、bility of the public cloud, while integrating with the 80% of workloads that have yet to migrateEnabling consistency across on-premise and off-premise will be key to vendor successOutperformIBMNTAPUnderperformHPEData Center Favored vs.Client-Facing End MarketsWe prefer exposure to data center spendi

36、ngWe favor Storage, with a particular emphasis on the high-growth all-flash market (+17% CAGR, CY18-CY21E)Servers should benefit long-term from rising value of data, but face near-term headwinds from 18 over-ship and falling DRAMPCs & Smartphones are mature and largely driven by replacement demand.

37、Printers & Tablets are in secular declineOutperformNTAPNeutralPSTGDELLTide Receding After Strong Investment Cycle in CY18Slowing end market growth brings focus back to company- specific factors2018 was a robust IT spending environment, driven by a solid macroeconomic backdrop and US corporate tax re

38、formThe upgrade cycle was evident across on-premise hardware, as the pendulum swung back from public cloudWe expect the tide to recede in 2019, supported by the Credit Suisse CIO SurveyOutperformIBMNTAPCDWXRXUnderperformHPEExecutive SummaryWe initiate coverage on 9 IT Hardware companies with the fol

39、lowing ratings:Outperform: IBM (IBM), NetApp (NTAP), CDW (CDW), and Xerox (XRX)Underperform: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)Neutral: Apple (AAPL), Dell Technologies (DELL), HP Inc. (HPQ), and Pure Storage (PSTG)Industry ViewEntering the Goldilocks Era of Cloud; Hybrid is “Just Right.” We firmly bel

40、ieve Hybrid Cloud architectures represent the future of enterprise IT. A hybrid-first approach allows customers to take advantage of the agility and flexibility provided by the public cloud, while seamlessly integrating with the 80% of enterprise workloads that have yet to migrate. Consistency acros

41、s on-premise and off-premise will be critical to organizations ability to dynamically move workloads to best fit the current needs of a particular application.By end m arket, we prefer exposure to data center spending and favor Storage in particular with an emphasis on positioning within the high-gr

42、owth all-flash space. Were structurally positive on Enterprise Servers longer-term, though are more cautious near-term as growth normalizes from a well above trend 2018 and cyclical factors (namely DRAM) weigh on pricing.Tide receding after a outsized investment cycle in CY18. 2018 was a robust IT S

43、pending environment, with accelerated growth driven by a solid macroeconomic backdrop, US corporate tax reform, and renewed on-premise investment as the pendulum swung back from public cloud. While we still expect healthy IT Spending in CY19, we expect a reversion to more normalized growth rates whi

44、ch should drive investor focus to company-specific factors.Our Approach Not a “Set It and Forget It” Industry; Focus on the Key DriversOur IT Hardware coverage universe consists of a diverse set of end markets and companies. While all have exposure to broad IT Spending trends, the unique attributes

45、of each result in low intra-segment correlation and high dispersion of returns making our space ripe for stock picking. As a result, we focus on a bottom-up approach to stock selection within our industry with an emphasis on EPS-driven upside/downside.Our work centers on identifying the key topics f

46、or every company that we believe will shape the investor debate over the next twelve months and performing a deep dive into each that forms the basis for our view. In an environment of decelerating (albeit still healthy) IT Spending, we prefer “self-help” stories that place an emphasis on company-sp

47、ecific execution rather than end market-driven tailwinds.Matt Cabral | 415-249-7929 | HYPERLINK mailto:matthew.cabral matthew.cabral6Entering the Goldilocks Era of CloudHybrid strategy critical as public/private debate reaches equilibriumEntering the Goldilocks Era of Cloud; Hybrid is “Just Right”If

48、 Public Cloud is “too hot” and Traditional IT is “too cold,” Hybrid Cloud is “just right”The future is Hybrid as we enter the Goldilocks Era of CloudWe firmly believe Hybrid Cloud architectures represent the future of enterprise IT. A hybrid-first approach allows customers to take advantage of the a

49、gility and flexibility provided by the public cloud, while seamlessly integrating with the 80% of enterprise workloads that have yet to migrate.Consistency across on-premise and off-premise will be critical to organizations ability to dynamically move workloads to best fit the current needs of a par

50、ticular application.Public Cloud continues to experience rapid growthThe Public Cloud, including SaaS, PaaS, and IaaS, will reach more than $275bn in CY21, per IDC.Adoption is still ramping; majority of respondents to the CS CIO Survey indicated Public Cloud accounts for less than 10% of their curre

51、nt IT budget, with nearly 35% expecting it to be 30% of spend within 3 yearsbut cant ignore Private Cloud and Traditional IT; cloud “repatriation” on the riseEven given the option to start over with a blank slate, organizations would still have a meaningful presence in Private Cloud (48% vs. 44% tod

52、ay) and Traditional IT (27% vs. 36% today), per IDCs survey workEnterprises are beginning to re-think their cloud strategies; more than 80% of customers repatriated applicationslast year, per IDC, with an uptick expected this year. Security, “lock-in” and pricing are key concerns.Exploring Hybrid St

53、rategies: Different starting points, same end goalOn-Prem ise Pushes Outward. IT Hardware companies are looking to leverage their on-premise incumbency to drive stickiness outward in the shift toward Hybrid. IBMs pending Red Hat acquisition significantly improves the companys standing in Hybrid, com

54、bining the platform, incumbency, and expertise to help customer along their journey. NetApp is well positioned within Storage and Dells “family” approach is key given majority stakes in VMware and Pivotal. HPE still has work to do, in our view, as the vast majority of the companys mix is tied to mor

55、e traditional hardware spending, rather than services that drive consistency across on-premise and off-premise. Finally, it is still early days for Pure Storages hybrid strategy.Public Cloud Pushes Inward. At the same time, Public Cloud leaders are making a push toward on-premise to solve the hybrid

56、 puzzle. Azure Stack is furthest along; AWS Outposts and Googles CSP have yet to fully launch.The Goldilocks Solution: Hybrid CloudIf Public Cloud is “too hot” and Traditional IT is “too cold,” Hybrid Cloud is “just right”Hybrid CloudHybrid Cloud acts as the bridge that allows the dynamic movement o

57、f applications and data across on-prem and off-prem IT. Think of Hybrid as more of a strategy to unlock the best of both worlds rather than a separate deployment model; consistency on both sides will be key to success.Public CloudA third-party Service Provider owns and operates IT infrastructure and

58、, in turn, “rents” access to customers for a fee. As a result, infrastructure is shared by all users of the service. Private CloudDedicated IT Infrastructure for the benefit of a single customer, typically (but not always) owned by that same customer. Provides many of the benefits of the Public Clou

59、d, but can be more expensive to use. Traditional ITDedicated IT infrastructure owned and operated by an organization. Equipment is typically managed in silos by type and/or by application. Least efficient operating model.Entering the Goldilocks Era of Cloud; Hybrid is “Just Right”A look at the vario

60、us IT deployment modelsPublic CloudHybrid CloudPrivate CloudTraditional ITWhat is it?Owned operated by cloud providers in a shared, multi- tenant modelIncludes SaaS, PaaS, and IaaSOperating model that allows dynamic movement of apps and data across on-prem and off-prem ITConsistency across on-prem a