Q2印尼市场总结：紧缩的力量

1、12 August 2019 Asia Pacific/Indonesia Equity ResearchStrategyResearch Analysts Andri Ngaserin62 21 2553 7917 HYPERLINK mailto:andri.ngaserin andri.ngaserinGregorius Gary62 21 255 37911 HYPERLINK mailto:gregorius.gary gregorius.garyIndonesia Market StrategySECTOR REVIEW2Q19 wrap-up: Contractionary fo

2、rces2Q19 market NPAT at -11% YoYFigure 1: Market revenue & ex-commodities revenue vs nominal GDP 18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%13%12%11%10%9%8%7%1Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q196% Market Revenue - LHS Market excl. Commodities - LHS Nominal GDP - RHS

3、Source: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisse researchSofter than expected. Overall, 2Q19 earnings were worse than our already-low expectations with 2Q19 market earnings declining to -11% YoY vs CS expectations of -7% YoY. In 2Q19 CS covered stocks grew NPAT at+4% YoY vs ou

4、r expectations of +6% YoY (non-covered commodities were the main drag). The revenue trend (primary indicator) decelerated in 2Q19 to +4% YoY or the slowest pace since 2015. Sectors which led the disappointments were commodities (-34% YoY) and infra & property (-45% YoY), the former due to a weak com

5、modities pricing environment. 2Q19 market ROE declined to 13% from 14-15% historically as margins fell across sectors. On the macro front, the GDP print decelerated in 2Q19 to 5.05% from 1Q19s 5.07% and broad money indicators M1/M2 remain low at +5%/+7% (per June; this amid a situation of continued

6、high-system LDR.Telco, staples outperforming. We had expected telcos to perform due to a healthy tariff environment and a low base in 2Q18, but staples improvement came as a surprise (see Deidys report: HYPERLINK /s/V7iV5t4AF-Zc0p Strong 2Q19 boosted HYPERLINK /s/V7iV5t4AF-Zc0p by low input costs).

7、Overall, telco and tower earnings doubled from the low base this year, as improved tariff resulted in improved profitability. Multiple small caps also saw profits jump this quarter with healthy revenue trends: DMAS, KINO, ARNA, MNCN.JCI lacking catalysts; to rally in 4Q19. We believe the JCI Index l

8、acks catalyst and will run sideways before rallying in 4Q1. Catalysts include: (1) government policy response to incentivise investments (revised negative investment list, potential income tax rate reduction, more tax holiday approvals, change in labour law), (2) currency stability after recent vola

9、tility amid trade war escalation, and (3) signs of bottoming corporate earnings (signalled by improving high frequency data) revisions.DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US

10、Disclosure: CreditSuisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor

11、in making their investment decision.Focus chart and tablesSub-sectorRevenue (Rp bn) (%) YoY2Q182Q19Rp bn% chg.BANKS127,298140,59913,30110.4%TELCO & TOWERS46,76651,3374,5729.8%COAL RELATED64,67968,7584,0796.3%METALS13,26015,7942,53419.1%OIL & GAS20,94821,7137653.7%PLANTATIONS12,17911,227(952)-7.8%POU

12、LTRY24,20026,7242,52410.4%PULP, PAPER, AND PACKAGING17,46717,181(287)-1.6%PETROCHEMICAL20,16817,413(2,755)-13.7%AUTOMOTIVE76,57478,0131,4391.9%CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY51,69453,0671,3732.7%CONSUMER STAPLES106,148115,1949,0458.5%MEDIA4,3484,79644810.3%CEMENT12,37514,0541,67913.6%INDUSTRIAL ESTATE1,4712,

13、39392362.7%INFRASTRUCTURE40,12030,567(9,553)-23.8%PROPERTY15,44613,887(1,560)-10.1%HEALTHCARE5,5626,0094478.0%SHIPPING2,1132,53442220.0%TOURISM & TRANSPORTATION17,29518,7711,4768.5%Sub-sectorRevenue (Rp bn) (%) QoQ1Q192Q19Rp bn% chg.BANKS138,203140,5992,3961.7%TELCO & TOWERS50,87751,3374610.9%COAL R

14、ELATED68,76168,758(3)0.0%METALS15,81415,794(20)-0.1%OIL & GAS21,22021,7134922.3%PLANTATIONS12,08711,227(861)-7.1%POULTRY24,96526,7241,7597.0%PULP, PAPER, AND PACKAGING17,71017,181(529)-3.0%PETROCHEMICAL17,41317,413-0.0%AUTOMOTIVE81,86978,013(3,856)-4.7%CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY44,23953,0678,82920.0%CON

15、SUMER STAPLES111,031115,1944,1633.7%MEDIA4,0284,79676819.1%CEMENT14,63114,054(577)-3.9%INDUSTRIAL ESTATE1,6622,39373144.0%INFRASTRUCTURE35,46730,567(4,900)-13.8%PROPERTY13,75813,8871280.9%HEALTHCARE6,1226,009(114)-1.9%SHIPPING2,5792,534(44)-1.7%TOURISM & TRANSPORTATION18,70718,771640.3%Figure 2: 20

16、sub-sectors revenue YoYFigure 3: 20 sub-sectors revenue QoQSource: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisse researchSource: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisse researchSub-sectorNPAT (Rp bn) (%) YoY2Q182Q19Rp bn% chg.BANKS28,59529,7421,1464.0%TELCO

17、& TOWERS2,4445,0842,639108.0%COAL RELATED9,8467,846(2,000)-20.3%METALS776703(74)-9.5%OIL & GAS1,3851,107(278)-20.1%PLANTATIONS793(405)(1,198)-151.0%POULTRY2,1821,494(689)-31.6%PULP, PAPER, AND PACKAGING4,1022,090(2,013)-49.1%PETROCHEMICAL899326(572)-63.7%AUTOMOTIVE9,6924,802(4,890)-50.5%CONSUMER DIS

18、CRETIONARY2,3752,5822078.7%CONSUMER STAPLES10,02211,7371,71517.1%MEDIA1,1281,176484.2%CEMENT455308(147)-32.4%INDUSTRIAL ESTATE(172)589761-442.3%INFRASTRUCTURE3,1971,987(1,211)-37.9%PROPERTY4,9251,703(3,222)-65.4%HEALTHCARE290311207.0%SHIPPING(31)2556-180.4%TOURISM & TRANSPORTATION(415)264679-163.5%S

19、ub-sectorNPAT (Rp bn) (%) QoQ1Q192Q19Rp bn% chg.BANKS30,99029,742(1,248)-4.0%TELCO & TOWERS6,2075,084(1,123)-18.1%COAL RELATED8,5667,846(720)-8.4%METALS840703(137)-16.3%OIL & GAS1,5191,107(412)-27.1%PLANTATIONS(3)(405)(402)15893.8%POULTRY1,2141,49428023.1%PULP, PAPER, AND PACKAGING2,1312,090(41)-1.9

20、%PETROCHEMICAL326326-0.0%AUTOMOTIVE6,5104,802(1,708)-26.2%CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY1,0582,5821,524144.1%CONSUMER STAPLES12,63211,737(895)-7.1%MEDIA1,2121,176(36)-3.0%CEMENT546308(238)-43.7%INDUSTRIAL ESTATE103589486472.2%INFRASTRUCTURE2,3451,987(358)-15.3%PROPERTY2,8121,703(1,109)-39.4%HEALTHCARE337311

21、(27)-7.9%SHIPPING8025(55)-68.6%TOURISM & TRANSPORTATION518264(254)-49.1%Figure 4: 20 sub-sectors NPAT YoYFigure 5: 20 sub-sectors NPAT QoQSource: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisse researchSource: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisse researchFi

22、gure 6: Overall market earnings1H18 vs 1H19 market earnings trend0.1 1.11.91591.03.00.40.00.10.00.11.8153170Net profit (Rp tn)1651601551501H18ABANKSTELCO & TOWERSCOAL RELATEDMETALSOIL & GASPLANTATIONSPOULTRYPULP & PAPERPETROCHEM.AUTOMOTIVECONS. DISCR.CONS. STAPLESMEDIACEME

23、NTIND. ESTATEINFRAPROPERTYHEALTHCARESHIPPINGTOUR. & TRANS.1H19A145Source: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisse researchOverall, 2Q19 earnings were worse than ouralready low expectations (-7% YoY) with overall market earnings declining to-11% YoYEarnings drags are primarily

24、 from key Indonesia commodities sectors particularly plantations, pulp & paper, and poultryStrong recovery on telco earnings had been expected, but staples improvement came as a surprise in2Q19We believe in August September, JCI Index will likely be lacking catalysts and will be sideways before rall

25、ying in 4Q192Q19 wrap-up: Contractionary forces2Q19 market NPAT at -11% YoYIn this report, we track earnings performance of over 100 companies in Indonesia (80% of total Indonesia market capitalisation, and we include stocks which CS does not cover for better market representation). Overall, 2Q19 ea

26、rnings were worse than our already-low expectations (see note: HYPERLINK /s/V7h2ru4AF-Zc0p 2Q earnings season: Weaker but bottoming) with overall 2Q19 market earnings declining to -11% YoY vs CS expectations of -7% YoY. In 2Q19, CS- covered stocks grew NPAT at +4% YoY vs our expectations of +6% YoY

27、(non-covered commodities were the main drag). The revenue trend, our primary indicator, decelerated in 2Q19 to +4% YoY or the slowest pace since 2015. Sectors which led the disappointments are commodities (-34% YoY) and infra & property (-45% YoY), the former due to a weak commodities pricing enviro

28、nment. 2Q19 market ROE declined to 13% from 14-15% historically as margins fell across sectors. On the macro front, the GDP print decelerated in 2Q19 to 5.05% from 1Q19s 5.07% and broad money indicators M1/M2 remained low at+5%/+7% (per June), this amid a situation of continued high system LDR.Multi

29、plecontractionaryforces:Commoditiesand infra disappoint, telco and staples improve2Q19 market performance: revenue/EBIT/NPAT of +4%/0%/-11% YoY respectively. By sub-sectors, earnings drags came from the commodities, plantation (net losses), pulp & paper (-49% YoY) and poultry (-32% YoY) sectors, amo

30、ng others. Non-commodities earnings drags are from infrastructure (including construction -38% YoY), automotive (-50% YoY), cement (-32% YoY) and property (-65% YoY). As per our expectations (see HYPERLINK /s/V7hPXW4AF-Zc0p 1Q19 wrap-up), commodities will likely continue to be a drag; key commodity

31、prices of coal and CPO performed -11%/-3% QTD July-Aug till now with global trade/growth likely negatively affected on trade war escalation. The infrastructure drag was driven by a sharp decline in WSKTs profit (see HYPERLINK /s/V7iNAl4AF-Zc0p A quarter to forget. eyes on 2H19 recovery; 2Q19 wrap up

32、 published on 31 July 2019), while automotive, cement and property dipped due to demand weakness from both government and private corporates as per anecdotes from companies as well as disruption in working days. For non-commodities, we think that government/ private spending will pick up although th

33、is might be more back-loaded to 4Q19 as policy enactment takes time and new cabinet ministers will be officially in place in October 2019. Key 2Q19 earnings positives: staples and telco. We had expected telco to perform due to a healthy tariff environment and a 2Q18 low base, but staples improvement

34、 came as a surprise (see Deidys report: HYPERLINK /s/V7iV5t4AF-WhPw Strong 2Q19 boosted by low input costs). Overall telco earnings doubled this year from the low base as improved tariff results in improved profitability. Staples is the key surprise as revenues accelerated and margins improved for I

35、CBP and UNVR. Multiple small caps saw profits jump this quarter with healthy revenue trends: DMAS, KINO, ARNA, MNCN.Fundamentals to bottom: JCI lacking catalyst now; but visible rally towards year endWe believe that in August-September, the JCI Index will lack catalysts and run sideways before rally

36、ing in 4Q19. Catalysts include: (1) government policy response to incentivise investments (revised negative investment list, potential corporate income tax rate reduction, more tax holiday approvals, change in labour law), (2) currency stability after recent volatility amid trade war escalation, (3)

37、 signs of bottoming corporate earnings (signalled by improving high frequency data). CS is positive on infrastructure development and lower interest rate beneficiaries (WIKA, WSKT, TBIG, TOWR, WTON), but less positive on the banks segment which is susceptible to further NIM compression in a lower yi

38、eld environment.Multiple contractionary forces: Commodities and infra disappoint2Q19 market performance: revenue/EBIT/NPAT of +4%/0%/-11% YoY respectively were driven by continuous decline in commodities as the sector registered 2Q19 revenue/EBIT/NPAT of +3%/-24%/-34% YoY, respectively. 1H19 market

39、performance registered revenue/EBIT/NPAT of +6%/+2%/-4% YoY versus JCIs 2019 EPS growth expectation of +4.6%. This implies that we have more downside on earnings than consensus has baked in. We note that the plantations sub-sector has started showing significant losses of Rp400 bn versus breakeven i

40、n 1Q19 and profits in prior quarters. This on the back of CPO price weakness in the range of RM1,900-RM2,000/t recently; which bodes negatively for CPO capex, banks asset quality and small farmers wealth. Coal prices in the last five weeks have further deteriorated with 6,000kcal NAR quality declini

41、ng from US$72/t in end-June to US$65/t now.Figure 7: CPO and coal 6,000 NAR price trendFigure 8: Market revenue and marketex-commodities revenue vs nominal GDP growth800700600(US$/ton)500400300200Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18

42、 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19Jul-19100130120110100(US$/ton)90807060504018%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%13%12%11%10%9%8%7%1Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q15 HYPERLINK /s/V7iV5t4AF-Zbd8 1Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q196% Market Revenue - LHS Market excl. Commodities - LHS N

43、ominal GDP - RHS Coal 6000 NAR - LHS CPO - RHSSource: The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisse researchSource: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisseresearch2Q19 ex-commodities revenue/EBIT/NPAT of +5%/+9%/-4% was a deceleration versus the 1Q19 trend (see report HYP

44、ERLINK /s/V7hPXW4AF-Zc0p 1Q19 wrap-up: Revenue slows but ex-commodities HYPERLINK /s/V7hPXW4AF-Zc0p showed recovery) which had earlier showed improvement in the cost front. The weakness apart from infra is also due to bank sector loan growth and loan yield deceleration amid NIM compression, resultin

45、g in overall 2Q19 banks revenue/EBIT/NPAT at +10%/+5%/+4%. Clearly we believe a subdued corporate revenue environment results in lower confidence and lower demand for capex/expansionary activities. In addition a high LDR environment resulted in NIM compression as competition for term deposits contin

46、ues. We do expect a pick-up in 2H19 although we suspect this will be more back-loaded in 4Q19 and in 2020. Staples such as INDF/ICBP/UNVR outperformed; while helped by a typical Lebaran pick-up in staples spending, costs improved as well as margins expanded in ICBP and UNVR; We expect FMCG companies

47、 to continue benefiting from low raw material prices in 2H19 see Deidys report: HYPERLINK /s/V7iV5t4AF-Zbd8 Strong 2Q19 boosted by low input costs). However, we continue to believe the competitive environment in FMCG is tough.Commodities sector performed the worst on QoQ basis. The rest of 2019 will

48、 continue to be a drag given subdued commodity prices. As we had mentioned in the previous edition, a fundamental shift in revenue baseline is happening in 2019 as commodities revenue (which contributed half of the markets growth in 2017-18) is set to reverse and contribute negative growth. This tre

49、nd is accelerating as evidenced by the continued weakness in commodities prices (Figure 12 below). In 1H19 alone, commodities have resulted in an earnings delta decline of Rp12 tn (1H19 market total earnings delta: -Rp6.5 tn). Commodities now contributes c.18% of 1H19 market profit from 23% in 2018.

50、 This implies the contiguous pressure on other sectors such as consumer (weaker purchasing power) and banks (asset quality) is likely to continue.Figure 9: Market NPAT waterfallcommodities rally helped earnings growth in 2016-18Figure 10: 1H18 to 1H19 profit waterfallprevious two years commodities-l

51、ed growth to reset340,000170 3.5 3.2320,000300,000280,000260,000165Net profit (Rp tn)1601551501594.60.1 1 3.03.1 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.11.8 153240,0001H18A BANKSTELCO & TOWERS COAL RELATEDMETALS OIL & GAS PLANTATIONS POULTRY PULP & PAPER PETROCHEM. AUTOMOTIVE CONS. DISCR.CONS. STA

52、PLESMEDIA CEMENT IND. ESTATEINFRA PROPERTY HEALTHCARE SHIPPING TOUR. & TRANS.1H19A145320,243240,74134,52844,975220,000200,0002016 NPAT+ Commodities+ Non- Commodities2018 NPATSource: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisse researchSource: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSION

53、AL service, Credit Suisse researchFigure 11: Commodity sub-sectors 1H19 profit growth YoY23%14%18%6%3%-8%-23%-1%-3%-15%-16%-11%-32 -26%-29%-32%-41%-40%Revenue YoY EBIT YoYNPAT YoY-64%-70%-127%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%-120%METALSPOULTRYCOAL RELATEDOIL & GASPULP & PAPERPLANTATIONSPETROCHEM.-140%Fi

54、gure 12: Commodity prices, indexed (base year: January 2017 = 100)170 13090Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-1950

55、Coal 5500kcal Nickel Brent CPO PulpSource: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisse researchSource: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Credit Suisse researchSubsector positives and negatives:We divide the corporates into 20 subs-sectors as shown in Figures 13, 1

56、4 and 15.2Q19 positives: Improvements are observed in telcos (revenues/margins), consumer discretionary/retail, staples (margins), healthcare (revenue momentum), cement (margins), industrial estate (DMAS), with the common theme being industries that have gone through heavy competition showing price

57、rationalisation or cost savings; except for DMAS which has a surge in land sales owing to FDI investments.2Q19 negatives: All commodities subsectors, including coal, metals, oil & gas, plantations, poultry, pulp & paper, petrochemical posted negative net profits in 2Q19 ranging from -10% to -150% co

58、ntinuing a similar trend from 1Q19. Infrastructure and property NPAT declined by 38% and 65% YoY respectively, the former being led by WSKT and the latter due to general softness in property demand and weak pre-launches in the last 12 months. Banks net profit deceleration is across the board except

59、for BBCA and BTPS which saw a significant PPOP deviation (BBCA: +24% YoY, BTPS: +32% YoY PPOP vs industrys PPOP of +6%).14 out of 20 sub-sectors posted profit declines. Figure 13 summarises the sub sector 2Q19 YoY earnings performance, where only 6 out of 20 sub-sectors posted positive profit growth

60、 while 16 sectors posted negative profit growth.Figure 13: Sub-sector 2Q19 earnings performancetelco and staples outperformed108%17% 9% 7% 4% 4%-10%-151%-163%-180%-442%-20% -20%-32% -32% -38%-49% -50%-64% -65%100%80%60%2Q19 net profit YoY40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%TELCO & TOWERS CONS. STAPLES CONS. DIS