REITs：模型更新估值未变

1、REITsModel Updates, No Estimate ChangesNorth America Equity Research18 January 2019We are introducing our out year estimates. We are making no changes to our current estimates.REITsAnthony Paolone, CFA AC(1-212) 622-6682 HYPERLINK mailto:anthony.paolone anthony.paoloneBloomberg JPMA PAOLONE J.P. Mor

2、gan Securities LLCMichael W. Mueller, CFA(1-212) 622-6689 HYPERLINK mailto:michael.w.mueller michael.w.muellerJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCNikita Bely(1-212) 622-0695 HYPERLINK mailto:nikita.bely nikita.belyJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCHong Zhang(1-212) 622-6416 HYPERLINK mailto:hongliang.zhang hongliang.

3、zhangJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCPatrice Chen(1-212) 622-1893 HYPERLINK mailto:patrice.chen patrice.chenJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCSarah Tan(1-212) 622-1041 HYPERLINK mailto:sarah.tan sarah.tanJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCDhiraj K Kapgate(9122) 6157-3354 HYPERLINK mailto:dhiraj.kapgate dhiraj.kapgateJ.P.

4、Morgan India Private LimitedEquity Ratings and Price TargetsCompanyTickerMkt Cap ($ mn)Price ($) Rat Curing PrevCur Price TaEnd Daterget PrevEnd DateAmerican Campus CommunitiesACC US5,963.0043.05Nn/c45.00Dec-19n/cn/cAIMCOAIV US7,725.2646.79Nn/c47.00Dec-19n/cn/cAmerican Homes 4 RentAMH US7,519.7121.3

5、7OWn/c25.00Dec-19n/cn/cAvalonBay CommunitiesAVB US25,343.03183.34Nn/c217.00Dec-19n/cn/cCamden Property TrustCPT US8,918.9491.77OWn/c103.00Dec-19n/cn/cEquity ResidentialEQR US26,735.8669.91OWn/c78.00Dec-19n/cn/cEssex Property TrustESS US17,646.34258.18Nn/c277.00Dec-19n/cn/cInvitation HomesINVH US11,0

6、46.7121.22OWn/c27.00Dec-19n/cn/cFront Yard ResidentialRESI US543.8110.14Nn/c12.00Dec-19n/cn/cUDR, Inc.UDR US12,302.1441.53OWn/c45.00Dec-19n/cn/cSource: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 17 Jan 19.See page 28 for analyst certification and important disc

7、losures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thi

8、s report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / American Campus CommunitiesNeutralCompany DataAmerican Campus Communities (ACC;ACC US)FYE Dec2016A2017A2018E2019E2020EPrice ($)43.05FFO Per Share ($)Date Of Price17-Jan-19Q1 (Mar)0.620.620.62A0.660.7052-week Range ($)4

9、4.11-34.52Q2 (Jun)0.540.530.52A0.590.59Market Cap ($ mn)5,963.00Q3 (Sep)0.450.450.44A0.470.50Fiscal Year EndDecQ4 (Dec)0.650.720.720.720.76Shares O/S (mn)139FY2.272.312.312.442.55Price Target ($)45.00AFFO Per Share FY ($)2.112.112.222.242.34Price Target End Date31-Dec-19Source: Company data, Bloombe

10、rg, J.P. Morgan estimates.Investment Thesis, Valuation and RisksAmerican Campus Communities (Neutral; Price Target: $45.00)Investment ThesisWe rate ACC Neutral. Between the stock catching a bid (at least on a relative basis) lately and the private market being very strong for student housing assets,

11、 funding costs for ACCs development pipeline are likely to be more attractive than expected. Finally, while we think core growth should be better in other parts of the residential REIT space, investors could seek out ACC in a defensive environment as its portfolio should be less economically sensiti

12、ve.ValuationACC trades at 17.6x our 2019 FFOM estimate compared with the residential REIT average of 17.6x, and it trades at 19.2x our 2019 AFFO estimate compared with the residential group average of 19.7x.Our December 2019 price target stays at $45/share. To arrive at our target price, we utilize

13、a discounted cash flow (DCF) model. For “cash flow” we use the dividends estimated by our earnings model through 2024, thereafter using a dividend to perpetuity based on long-term AFFO growth of 3.75% and a 90% payout ratio. We think ACCs portfolio should produce 2.0-3.0% levered long-term core grow

14、th, with development and acquisition activity adding 100 bps to growth. We apply an 8.50% discount rate to the resulting cash flow stream, at around the midpoint of the range we use for our universe of 7.75-10%. On the positive side, we believe ACC has a good portfolio, strong management team, and a

15、bove-average balance sheet, but this is offset by the company having significant development exposure and operating in what we view as a smaller, niche property sector where there is a lot of supply coming on line.Risks to Rating and Price TargetGiven our Neutral rating, risks to our thesis include

16、items that may cause the stock to outperform or underperform our coverage universe. These items include (1) increasing enrollment trends at universities that can help it drive rents higher orweakening enrollment that can weigh on landlord pricing power; (2) stronger than expected investment activity

17、 that is accretive would be positive, but to the extent ACC sells assets and takes dilution, it could be viewed negatively; (3) new supply in its markets could pressure rents on the downside while any easing of the student housing supply picture could help rental rate growth; and (4) better expense

18、comps that result in boosting NOI growth would be helpful, while operational pressure from costs could mute growth.American Campus Communities: Summary of FinancialsIncome Statement - AnnualFY17AFY18EFY19EFY20EIncome Statement - Quarterly1Q18A2Q18A3Q18A4Q18ERental revenues739826897963Rental revenues

19、206A189A203A229Property operating expenses(332)(375)(406)(438)Property operating expenses(88)A(86)A(108)A(92)Net operating income409454491525Net operating income118A104A96A136G&A expense(31)(34)(32)(33)G&A expense(7)A(13)A(7)A(7)Interest expense(71)(97)(104)(111)Interest expense(24)A(23)A(25)A(24)Ot

20、her expenses-Other expenses-Other income5644Other income1A2A1A1Funds from operations (FFO)317320339356Funds from operations (FFO)86A73A61A101Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO)289308311327Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO)83A69A57A98Weighted average diluted shares137139139140Weighted average di

21、luted shares139A139A139A139FFO per share2.312.312.442.55FFO per share0.62A0.52A0.44A0.72AFFO per share2.112.222.242.34AFFO per share0.60A0.50A0.41A0.71Dividend per share1.741.821.901.98Dividend per share0.44A0.46A0.46A0.46Balance Sheet and Cash Flow DataFY17AFY18EFY19EFY20ERatio AnalysisFY17AFY18EFY

22、19EFY20EReal estate assets-NOI margin55.4%54.9%54.8%54.5%Accumulated depreciation-Net real estate assets82797979FFO growth2.1%(0.4%)5.9%4.3%P / FFO18.618.717.616.9Cash and cash equivalents41481240Other assets6,7516,8776,8886,975AFFO growth(0.2%)5.3%1.0%4.2%P / AFFO20.419.419.218.4Total assets6,8977,

23、0437,0197,134FFO payout75.2%78.9%77.8%77.8%Total debt3,0252,9863,1063,276AFFO payout82.5%82.0%84.7%84.7%Total liabilities3,2663,3123,4323,602Dividend yield4.0%4.2%4.4%4.6%Shareholders equity3,4993,5473,4033,348Enterprise value / EBITDA19.6Recurring capex(28)(12)(28)(29)Total debt / total market cap.

24、41.7%Leverage / total market cap.33.3%NAV46.66Premium / (discount) to NAV(7.7%)Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.Note: $ millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends DecAIMCONeutralAIMCO (AIV;AIV US)Company DataFYE Dec2016A2017A2018E2019E2020EPrice ($)46.79FFO Per Share ($)Date

25、Of Price17-Jan-19Q1 (Mar)0.570.580.60A0.600.6352-week Range ($)47.66-37.97Q2 (Jun)0.590.610.61A0.620.65Market Cap ($ mn)7,725.26Q3 (Sep)0.550.630.63A0.640.66Fiscal Year EndDecQ4 (Dec)0.600.630.650.690.71Shares O/S (mn)165FY2.312.452.492.552.66Price Target ($)47.00AFFO Per Share FY ($)1.962.122.172.2

26、52.35Price Target End Date31-Dec-19Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks AIMCO (Neutral; Price Target: $47.00) Investment ThesisWe rate AIV Neutral. AIVs core growth trailed its apartment REIT peers for a longtime due to its lower quality portf

27、olio and geographic mix, but this has been largely fixed. The companys portfolio and financial statements are dramatically improved compared to almost any time in the past 15 years. Our Neutral rating is mostly a function of us preferring other REITs in our coverage universe.ValuationAIV trades at 1

28、8.4x our 2019 FFO estimate, compared to the multi-family REIT group average of 17.6x, and 20.8x our 2019 adjusted FFO (AFFO) estimate, compared to its peer group average of 19.7x.Our December 2019 price target stays at $47/share. Our price target is based on a discounted cash flow approach to valuat

29、ion. For “cash flow” we utilize the estimated dividends from our financial model for the next several years, following by an assumption thereafter for a 95% AFFO payout on AFFO that we assume grows at 3.75% long-term. We assume an 8.5% discount rate, which is about average relative to the range of 7

30、.75-10% we typically consider for REITs. On the one hand, AIV is in the lower risk apartment segment, but it generally has a lower quality portfolio and above-average financial leverage compared with its apartment peers.Risks to Rating and Price TargetAs a Neutral-rated stock, key risks to our ratin

31、g and price target include items that may cause the stock to underperform or outperform the group. AIV has significant exposure relative to peers in markets like Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington D.C. and Miami which presently lag other markets in rent growth. To the extent that these markets end up

32、 performing above/below expectations would cause the stock to outperform or underperform. Additionally, AIV has outsized exposure to class B/C assets relative to peers these assets have a strong bid in the private market as of late and have been a driver of NAV growth for the stock, to the extent th

33、at the liquidity of these assets improves/gets worse could drive upside/downside to the stock.AIMCO: Summary of FinancialsIncome Statement - AnnualFY17AFY18EFY19EFY20EIncome Statement - Quarterly1Q18A2Q18A3Q18A4Q18ERental revenues992968945974Rental revenues244A250A239A234Property operating expenses(

34、354)(329)(313)(322)Property operating expenses(87)A(85)A(81)A(75)Net operating income599617632652Net operating income147A155A156A159G&A expense(43)(48)(49)(51)G&A expense(11)A(14)A(12)A(10)Interest expense(195)(183)(159)(157)Interest expense(48)A(50)A(45)A(40)Other expenses(40)(14)(5)(5)Other expens

35、es(3)A(4)A(6)A(1)Other income13700Other income4A0A3A0Funds from operations (FFO)384390397414Funds from operations (FFO)94A96A99A101Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO)332340350366Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO)84A84A89A82Weighted average diluted shares157157156156Weighted average diluted shar

36、es157A157A157A156FFO per share2.452.492.552.66FFO per share0.60A0.61A0.63A0.65AFFO per share2.122.172.252.35AFFO per share0.54A0.54A0.56A0.53Dividend per share1.441.521.601.68Dividend per share0.38A0.38A0.38A0.38Balance Sheet and Cash Flow DataFY17AFY18EFY19EFY20ERatio AnalysisFY17AFY18EFY19EFY20ERe

37、al estate assets-NOI margin60.4%63.8%66.9%66.9%Accumulated depreciation-Net real estate assets5,6485,7055,5465,469FFO growth6.1%1.6%2.3%4.2%P / FFO19.118.818.417.6Cash and cash equivalents14393112Other assets288350350350AFFO growth8.2%2.3%3.7%4.7%P / AFFO22.121.620.819.9Total assets6,0796,0645,9275,

38、831FFO payout58.8%61.0%62.6%63.1%Total debt4,0893,6523,8583,978AFFO payout68.0%70.2%71.0%71.3%Total liabilities4,3223,8944,1014,221Dividend yield3.1%3.2%3.4%3.6%Shareholders equity1,6562,0681,7251,509Enterprise value / EBITDA20.6Recurring capex0000Total debt / total market cap.35.4%Leverage / total

39、market cap.33.4%NAV47.54Premium / (discount) to NAV(1.6%)Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.Note: $ millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends DecOverweightAmerican Homes 4RentAmerican Homes 4 Rent (AMH;AMH US)Company DataFYE Dec2016A2017A2018E2019E2020EPrice ($)21.37FFO Per Sh

40、are-AdjustedDate Of Price17-Jan-19($)52-week Range ($)23.34-18.39Q1 (Mar)0.230.260.25A0.280.31Market Cap ($ mn)7,519.71Q2 (Jun)0.250.260.27A0.290.31Fiscal Year EndDecQ3 (Sep)0.240.250.27A0.290.31Shares O/S (mn)352Q4 (Dec)0.260.260.280.310.34Price Target ($)25.00FY0.971.021.071.171.27Price Target End

41、 Date31-Dec-19AFFO Per Share FY ($)0.740.680.800.961.06Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.Investment Thesis, Valuation and RisksAmerican Homes 4 Rent (Overweight; Price Target: $25.00)Investment ThesisWe rate AMH Overweight. We like the single-family rental space as we see the co

42、mpanies in this group having further runway to drive outsized NOI growth. In addition, AMHs balance sheet is the strongest of its peers, which should allow it to layer in external growth accretively and carry less interest rate risk.ValuationAMH trades at 18.3x our 2019 FFO estimate and 22.2x our 20

43、19 AFFO estimate. This compares to the overall residential REIT group multiples of 17.6x and 19.7x for FFO and AFFO/share, respectively. We think AMH shares warrant a premium due to higher expected growth in the next few years. In addition, we estimate NAV to be about $24.60/share, which puts the st

44、ock at a 13% discount. We think this gap could close.Our Dec 2019 price target for AMH stays at $25/share. In arriving at this price target, we estimate a future NAV/share estimate for AMH of about $26 versus the current NAV of about $25. We believe it should trade somewhere between these two price

45、levels and around 5% discount to forward NAV, resulting in a $25/share price target. We assume AMHs NAV/share increases as a result of home price appreciation in its markets, same-store NOI growth, and retained cash flow in the next 12-18 months.Risks to Rating and Price TargetAs an Overweight-rated

46、 stock, items we think could result in AMH underperforming or performing in line with our coverage universe are risks. These include 1) operating margins and/or rent levels proving worse than expected; 2) the company finding less attractive financing options to fund its balance sheet; 3) confidence

47、in management deteriorating; and 4) external growth generating sub-par returns on capital.American Homes 4 Rent: Summary of FinancialsIncome Statement - AnnualFY17AFY18EFY19EFY20EIncome Statement - Quarterly1Q18A2Q18A3Q18A4Q18ERental revenues9601,0721,1521,238Rental revenues258A264A280A269Property o

48、perating expenses(425)(486)(513)(551)Property operating expenses(120)A(117)A(132)A(116)Net operating income536586639687Net operating income138A147A148A153G&A expense(35)(36)(37)(38)G&A expense(9)A(10)A(9)A(8)Interest expense(113)(123)(130)(142)Interest expense(29)A(32)A(31)A(30)Other expenses(18)(9)

49、(5)(5)Other expenses(2)A(3)A(2)A(2)Other income0011Other income0A0A0A0Funds from operations (FFO)261329404439Funds from operations (FFO)83A57A92A98Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO)218278339372Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO)73A45A77A84Weighted average diluted shares320349352352Weighted aver

50、age diluted shares342A351A352A352FFO per share (Adj)1.021.071.171.27FFO per share (Adj)0.25A0.27A0.27A0.28AFFO per share0.680.800.961.06AFFO per share0.21A0.13A0.22A0.24Dividend per share0.200.200.200.32Dividend per share0.05A0.05A0.05A0.05Balance Sheet and Cash Flow DataFY17AFY18EFY19EFY20ERatio An

51、alysisFY17AFY18EFY19EFY20EReal estate assets-NOI margin55.8%54.7%55.4%55.5%Accumulated depreciation-Net real estate assets-FFO growth4.7%4.7%9.4%8.6%P / FFO20.920.018.316.8Cash and cash equivalents183315969Other assets198275269263AFFO growth(7.8%)16.7%21.0%9.5%P / AFFO31.326.822.220.2Total assets8,6

52、098,8819,1139,318FFO payout19.6%18.7%17.1%25.2%Total debt2,4762,5872,8413,095AFFO payout29.3%25.1%20.8%30.3%Total liabilities2,7332,8973,1523,406Dividend yield0.9%0.9%0.9%1.5%Shareholders equity5,8765,9845,9625,912Enterprise value / EBITDA18.4Recurring capex0(31)(94)(94)Total debt / total market cap

53、.31.4%Leverage / total market cap.30.4%NAV24.60Premium / (discount) to NAV(13.1%)Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.Note: $ millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends DecAvalonBay CommunitiesNeutralCompany DataAvalonBay Communities (AVB;AVB US)FYE Dec2016A2017A2018E2019E2020EPr

54、ice ($)183.34FFO Per Share ($)Date Of Price17-Jan-19Q1 (Mar)1.972.092.18A2.262.3752-week Range ($)191.91-Q2 (Jun)2.032.092.23A2.282.41152.65Q3 (Sep)2.072.192.28A2.342.48Market Cap ($ mn)25,343.03Q4 (Dec)2.122.252.322.402.56Fiscal Year EndDecFY8.198.629.019.289.82Shares O/S (mn)138AFFO_PER_SHAREPrice

55、 Target ($)217.00AFFO Per Share FY ($)7.768.198.538.859.38Price Target End Date31-Dec-19Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks AvalonBay Communities (Neutral; Price Target: $217.00) Investment ThesisWe rate AVB Neutral. We think its substantial

56、development pipeline continues todrive above-average value-creation for shareholders, but we also see new supply in its markets dampening growth. We do like the companys mix of urban and suburban assets.ValuationAVB trades at 19.8x our 2019 FFO estimate compared to the multifamily REIT group average

57、 of 17.6x. It trades at 20.7x our 2019 P/AFFO estimate compared to the multifamily REIT group average of 19.7x.Our December 2019 price target stays at $217/share. The price target is based on a discounted cash flow approach to valuation. For “cash flow,” we utilize the companys dividend as estimated

58、 in our earnings model over the next five years. Beyond year five, we assume a constant 80% dividend payout on AVBs AFFO to perpetuity. We assume AFFO grows 4.5% annually over the long term. This growth rate should be above AVBs peer average since AVB operates in higher growth markets and has a soli

59、d track record of growth from development activity. We assume an 8.0% discount rate, which is at the low end of the range we typically use for REITs of 7.75-10.00%. The low relative discount rate is a function of being in the lower risk apartment REIT segment, being in high-quality markets with high

60、er quality assets, and having below-average financial leverage. Above-average development risk is an offsetting consideration.Risks to Rating and Price TargetAs a Neutral-rated stock, key risks to our price target and rating include items that may cause the stock to outperform or underperform our co