cfa一级试题共18部分四investment tools economics macroeconomic analysis

1、四、 Investment Tools: Economics: Macroeconomic1.A: Preliminary Reading: Taking the Nations Economic Pulseysisa: Explahe two approaches to measuring gross domestic product (GDP) and calculate GDPusing each approach.The expenditure approach is a demand-based concept measured by summingalconsumption, gr

2、oss private investment,ernment consumption and gross investment, andnet exports of goods and servi.Resourcee approach: The resourcee approach is a supply orproduction oriented approach and measures GDP by summing the following componentsemployee compensation, proprietorse, rents, corporate profits,e

3、 of foreigners.ereste, indirectbusiness taxes, depretion, and netb: Distinguish betn GDP and groational product (GNP).GNP is the total market value of all final goods and serviproduced by the citizens of acountry no matter where they are residing. Prior to 1991 GNP was used to measure USproduction.G

4、NP and GDP are closely related concepts. GDP is a measure of the outputt is produceddomestically, while GNP is a measure of the output produced by the nationals of a countryregardless of where they live. GNP is GDP PLUSe earned by citizens from their workand investments abroad, LESS thee earned by f

5、oreigners from their work andinvestments withhe country.GDP measures output withhe borders of a country regardless of the citizenship of theproducer. GNP measures the output of the countrys nationals regardless of where they live.c: Explahe difference betn real and nominal GDP.An important use of GD

6、P is to compare the level of production over time. However, whennominal GDP (GDP measurederms of current pri) changes from one period to the next,it reflects both changes in production and price changes. Therefore, economists attempt tofilter out the impact of GDP by calculating GDP measurederms of

7、prifrom some baseyear. This measure is called real GDP. Changes in real GDP correspond to real or actualchanges in production.Since nominal GDP is measured with current priand real GDP is measured relative to theprice level in some base year, we need a price index to indicate the relative price chan

8、gebetn periods.d: Distinguish betn the GDP deflator and the consumrice index.The GDP Deflator is a general price indext corresponds to the price change exhibited by avery large market basket - all final goods and serviproduced. An important poto note ist the market basket of goods changes every year

9、 depending on current production. In other words, the market basket is not fixed. The GDP Deflator is useful for measuring economy-wideinflation. The current base year is 1992.The Consumrice Index (CPI) is differentn the GDP deflator., a relatively smallmarket basket (364 items) is used. Second, the

10、 market basket is fixed from year-to-year.Finally, the CPI measures consumrice changes and does not directly measure the pricechanges of items purchased by businesses andernment.The net result of all these differenis very small. However, the CPI tends to overse theinflation rate because its market b

11、asket is fixed and does not considert consumers willsubstitute away from goodsve risen dramatically in price . However, the CPI is usefulfor measuring inflationhe consumer goods sector.e: Calculate real GDP, using nominal GDP and the GDP deflator.Exle: Nominal GDP was $2.5 billion in 1992 and $3.5 b

12、illion in 1998. If the GDP deflatorwas 100.0 in 1992 and 112.7 in 1998, what is the change in real GDP over the period both in dollars and in percentage terms?Answer:1.2.3.Nominal GDP in 1992 = $2.5 billion.1998 GDP in 1992 dollars = $3.5 (100.0/112.7) = $3.1 billion.Increase in dollars: $3.1 - 2.5

13、= $0.6 billion. Increase in percent: (3.1 - 2.5) = .24 or 24%. Although nominal GDP rose by over 40% during the period, the real productionof the economy only rose by 24%.Real GDP current period = nominal GDP current period x (GDP deflator base year / GDP deflator current period)f: Discuss the major

14、 limiions of GDP.Limiions with using GDP as a measure of economic activity:1.GDP does not count non-market production-specifically, homemaker servi.2.GDP does not count the underground economy-illegal activities and tax eva.3.GDP does not measure the value of leisure activities, the standard of livi

15、ng accounted forby a shorter workk, and changing working conditions.4.GDP does not measure the changing quality of goods and servi.5.GDP does not measure the cost of pollution and damage to the ecology.g: Describe alternative measures of domestic output ande, including GDP, GNP, nationale,ale, and d

16、isablee.Gross domestic product = the total market value of all final goods produced within acountry.Groational product = the total market value of all final goods produced by thecitizens of a country.Nationale = the totale payments to labor and capital during the year. Itincludes total earnings (dom

17、estic and foreign) of a nations citizens.alpaymente = the totale received by individuals. Notet transferch as sol security are included here.Disablee =ale -al taxes.1.B: Preliminary Reading: Economic Fluctuations, Unemployment, and Inflationa: Explahe phases of the business cycle.The business cycle

18、is characterized by fluctuations in economic activity. Real GDP and the rate of unemployment are key variables used when determining the current phase of thecycle.The four phases of the business cycle are:1.2.3.4.Peak,Contraction,Reary Trough, andExpan. As to the length of each phase, recent experie

19、nce has shownt thecontractionary periods areing longer in duration.ing shorter, and the expanary periods areA reis defined asriod during which real GNP declines for two or more sucsivequarters. Both the contraction and rea prolonged and very severe reary trough comprise a re. A depresis.b: Describe

20、unemployment sistics and discuss the problemseasuring unemployment.The labor force is defined as those people of working age (+16) who are either employed orseeking employment. The labor force participation rate is the number ofs 16 or olderwho are either employed or actively seeking employment asrc

21、entage of the civilianpopulation 16 or older. The rate of unemployment is the percent of peoplehe civilian laborforce who are unemployed It is important to notet ifrson is not working, he/she is notnesarily classified as unemployed. An individual must be actively seeking employment orwaiting for ano

22、ther job to be considered unemployed. Household workers, students, andretirees are exles of individuals who have chosen to exit the labor force.Workers who have been laid out are waiting for recall to their old jobs are counted asunemployed. An individual is said to be unemployed if he/she ior waiti

23、ng to begin or return to a job.ively seeking employmentWorkers who havee discouraged and have given up looking for employment are notcounted as unemployed. This problem accounts for the anomalyeconomy turns up and the unemployment rate jumps.t occurs when theWorkers looking for full-time employment

24、but settling for part-time work are considered asbeing employed. Because of these measurement problems, some economists feel the propermeasure of employment would be the employment/population ratio ratherunemployment.n the rate ofc: Describe the three types of unemployment.Frictionaemployment is une

25、mployment due to constant changeshe economytprevent qualified workers from being immediay matched with existing job openings. Thereare two causes of frictionaemployment:Imperfect information.The job search conducted by both employees and employers.Structuraemployment is unemployment due to structura

26、l changeshe economyteliminate some jobs while generating job openings for whicemployed workers are notqualified. Structuraemployment differs from frictionaemploymenthat workersotcurrently have the skills needed to perform the newly created jobs.Cyclicaemployment is unemployment caused by a changeera

27、l level ofeconomic productivity. When the economy is operatingessn full capacity,itivelevels of cyclicaemployment will be present.evels above full capacity, negative cyclicalunemployment will exist.d: Define full employment.When cyclicaemployment is zero, the economy is said to be operating at full

28、employment.However, at full employment, both structural and frictionaemployment still exist. Therefore,there is some level of unemployment, which is expected when the economy is at fullemployment.The natural rate of unemployment ist rate of unemployment present when the economy isat its full employm

29、ent rate of production or output.he recent past, the natural rate hasrisen due to changeshe comition of the labor force, namely, and increase in youngworkers entering the labor force.This rate of unemployment can persist for an indefinite period of time and is typicallyassoted with the economysum lo

30、ng-rate of output.e: Define inflation and calculate the inflation rate.Inflation is a protracted period of rising pri. As inflation rises, the purchasinger of eachdollar held declines. Inflation = (this years price index - last years price index) / (last yearsprice index).Exle: A price index is 113.

31、5 for 2000 and 119.9 atof 2001. What was the inflationrate during 2001?Answer: Inflation rate = (119.9 113.5)/113.5 = 5.6%f: Discuss the effects of inflation.Unipated inflation is a change in prit was not expected by rational decimakers. When inflation is unipated, the purchasinger of every dollar i

32、s unexpectedlyeroded. Therefore, anye which is to be receivedhe future is now worth less in apresent-value sense. Now, lets think for a moment about potential winners and losers from adose of unipated inflation. The definiosers would be people who are currently holdinglong-term contracts in which th

33、ey are promised to receive a fixed dollar payment. The winnerswould obviously be the individuals or institutions which have made the promise to pay under those same fixed-rate contracts.ipated inflation is expected by decimakers. Therefore, all contracts will be writtentomodate for the inflation. Wi

34、nticipated inflation, variable rate contracts will be thepreferred contract by lenders, and anyishing to obtain a fixed-rate contract will have topay a highrice fort contract. Once theipated inflation has been writteno allcontracts, noill win or lose.1.C: Preliminary Reading: Working with Our Basic

35、Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Ma: Discuss the factorst shift aggregate demand and aggregate supply.An increase in real wealth will cause an increased demand feach price level.oods and serviatAn increasehe real rate oferest or real cost of funds will decrease AD at allprice levels and shift the A

36、D curve to the left. The increased real cost of borrowing will make it more expensive for consumers to purchase goods and for businesses toinvest.itive business expecion, or optimism, will shift AD to the right because theexpecion of improved economic conditions will increase consumption andinvestme

37、nt.If people expect inflationfuture inflation.he future, spending will occur today in order to avoid theIfe abroad increases, then AD will increase due to heightened demand for ourexport goods.If exchange rates change causing the value of the dollar to decline relative to foreigncurrencies, net expo

38、rts will increase, causing AD to shift to the right.b: Discuss the short- and long-run effects of unipated changes in aggregate demand andaggregate supply.An unexpected shift in AD will disturb the prevailing long-run equilibrium (E) and eventuallylead to a new long-run equilibrium. If consumers dec

39、ide to consume less today, theynesarily have to save more (given some level ofe). This reduction in consumptionwill temporarily shift the AD curve downward to the left (from AD1 to AD2). Inventories willaccumulate on store shelves, production will be cut, and workers will be laid off. The economywil

40、l move from poE (full employment GDPf) to poA (under employment GDPu). Thereduction in demand pladownward prere on wage rates and pri. As workers andrs bego accept the lower wage rate, employment and output will rise due to thefavorable shift in resource priof long-run equilibrium (po short-run resu

41、lts are. Hence,1 will shift to the right (2) back to a poB). While the long-run result is solely a reduction in pri, the1. Decline in output (higher unemployment) and2. Reduction in pri.If consumers decide to consume more, it will cause a shift to the right in AD resulting in GDPmoving above full em

42、ployment GDPf.he short run both output and pririse (reducingunemployment).he long run, the increased resource costs (higher wages and other inputs)will reduRAS leading solely to highri. (Note: as thecurve moves upward tothe left, supply is falling.)c: Discuss three self-correcting mechanismst may he

43、lp stabilize a market economy.Three primary mechanisms are responsible for self-correcting the economy after a shock.They are:Consumption Demand - demand is relatively stable over the business cycle.Realerest Rates - changes in realerest rates will help to stabilize aggregatedemand and redirect econ

44、omic fluctuations.Resource Pri- changes in real resource priwill redirect economic fluctuations.1.D: Preliminary Reading: Keynesian Foundations of Modern Macroeconomicsa: Distinguish betn classical economics and Keynesian economics.John M. Keylevel of outputmphasized the importance of aggregate dema

45、nd in determining the overallhe economy. If spending decreases due to pessimism on the part ofconsumers and investors, business will respond by cutting output. At this po, the argumentis precisely the same ast usedhe classical AD/AS m. But the classical AD/ASmdepends on a subsequent reduction in res

46、ource prito restore long-run equilibrium,namely a reduction in wages. Keynes, however, feltt resource pri, espelly wages,were highly inflexible in a downward direction. Hence, in Keynes view, the economy wouldlanguish for an extended period of time with higemployment.The Keynesian equilibrium occurs

47、 when spending is equal to output. Since extreme downwardprice rigidity is present, priot play a rolehe Keynesian Aggregate ExpenditureM. Hence, if demand is slack, “there are no automatic forcapable of aring fullemployment.” Instabilityhe Keynesian mis driven from the demand side of theeconomy. The

48、 main sourof economic instability are consumer spending, privateinvestment, andernment expenditures.b: Explahe major components of the Keynesian m.Planned consumption is determined primarily by disablee. Ase rises,consumption will also rise. However, the rise in consumption will not be on a one-to-o

49、ne basiswithe since a portion of each additional dollar is saved.Planned investment (I) andernment spending (G) are amed to be autonomous orgivenhis m. They are not directly related toe. Therefore, a change in one ofthese variables will shift the aggregate expenditure (AE = C + I + G + NX) schedule

50、up or downby the amount of the change. Planned net exports decrease ase increases.Planned expenditures must be distinguished from actual expenditures. If actual consumerexpenditures turn out to be lessn planned (below the equilibrium level), actual inventoryinvestment will be greateremployees will b

51、e laid-o above argument showsn planned (unplanned inventory investment isitive),nd output will fall. Since inventories are considered investment, thet investment is the primary source of economic instability.c: Explain Keynesian macroequilibrium.A key poto remember ist this equilibrium can occur awa

52、y from the full employment rateof output andt it is spending which drives this equilibrium. Hence, if the economy isoperatingessn full employment, only additional spending can drive the economy backto full employment.If equilibrium output is lessn the economys full employment capacity, how can theec

53、onomy reach its full employment capacity? It can be reachely by an increase inaggregate expenditures. AE shifts from AE1 to AE2 as expenditures increase.d: Define and calculate the marginal propensity to consume and the expenditure multipr.The proportion of each additional dollar ofe spent onal cons

54、umption is calledthe marginal propensity to consume (MPC). Mathematically: MPC = additional consumptiondivided by additionale.Ame you receive an additional $1,000 payment. You consume some of it ($1,000 x MPC)and save the rest. Whappens to the amount you spent? It represents someone elsesadditionale

55、 ($1,000 x MPC). They will spend some ($1,000 x MPC) x MPC and savethe rest. This pros continues indefiniy. You can seet the original $1,000 ofe for the economy.eexpands or is multipdo moren $1,000 of totalThe amount of the expanMPC)is called the expenditures multipr and is equal to: M = 1/(1 -There

56、fore, if investment spending increases by $1,000, total spending will increase by M x$1,000.The multipr shows why small changes in C, I,is the key to the multipr concept.can cause large changes in output. Thise: Explahe importance of the expenditure multipr withhe framework of the Keynesianm.The pro

57、portion of each additional dollar ofe spent onal consumption is calledthe marginal propensity to consume (MPC). Mathematically: MPC = additional consumptiondivided by additionale.Ame you receive an additional $1,000 payment. You consume some of it ($1,000 x MPC)and save the rest. Whappens to the amo

58、unt you spent? It represents someone elsesadditionale ($1,000 x MPC). They will spend some ($1,000 x MPC) x MPC and savethe rest. This pros continues indefiniy. You can seet the original $1,000 ofe for the economy.eexpands or is multipdo moren $1,000 of totalThe amount of the expanMPC)is called the

59、expenditures multipr and is equal to: M = 1/(1 -Therefore, if investment spending increases by $1,000, total spending will increase by M x$1,000.The multipr shows why small changes in C, I,is the key to the multipr concept.can cause large changes in output. Thisf: Discuss the Keynesian view of the b

60、usiness cycle.Ame there is an increase in aggregate demand (perhaps from higheres abroad or anincrease in consumer or business optimism). The multipr magnifies the increased demand.The higher demand leads toe growth. Thee growth leads to additionalconsumption and growing business sales. This leads t