“电动汽车+高铁”：中国石油需求的颠覆力量

1、March 5, 2019 09:00 PM GMTDisruption DecodedEVs + HSR: A Disruptive Force For China Oil DemandUnlike market consensus, we believe EVs + HSR is a unique travel mode in China that could sharply disrupt oil demand. We expect Chinas oil demand to peak in 2025, which could make battery companies key long

2、-term winners at the cost of refiners.Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should co

3、nsider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not

4、be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.ContributorsMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Andy Meng, CFAEquity Analyst+852 2239-7689 HYPERLINK mai

5、lto:Andy.Meng Andy.MengMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Jack LuEquity Analyst+852 2848-5044 HYPERLINK mailto:Jack.Lu Jack.LuMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Albert LiResearch Associate+852 3963-3610 HYPERLINK mailto:Albert.Li Albert.LiMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Jack YeungEquity Analyst+852 2239-7843 HYPERLIN

6、K mailto:Jack.Yeung Jack.YeungMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Tim HsiaoEquity Analyst+852 2848-1982 HYPERLINK mailto:Tim.Hsiao Tim.HsiaoMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Edward H Xu, CFAEquity Analyst+852 2239-1521 HYPERLINK mailto:Edward.Xu Edward.XuMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Kevin Luo, CFAEquity Analyst+85

7、2 2239-1527 HYPERLINK mailto:Kevin.Luo Kevin.LuoMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Shawn KimEquity Analyst+852 3963-1005 HYPERLINK mailto:Shawn.Kim Shawn.KimMORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC, SEOUL BRANCH+Young Suk ShinEquity Analyst+82 2 399-4994 HYPERLINK mailto:Young.Shin Young.ShinDisruption Decod

8、edUEVs + HSR: A Disruptive Force For China Oil Demandnlike market consensus, we believe EVs + HSR is a unique travel mode in China that could Industry ViewChina Energy & ChemicalsAttractivesharply disrupt oil demand. We expect Chinas oil demand to peak in 2025, which could make battery companies key

9、 long-term winners at the cost of refiners.WHATS CHANGEDFromToChina Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (0386.HK)RatingOverweightEqual-weightPrice Target7.477.43China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (600028.SS)RatingOverweightEqual-weightPrice Target6.576.54Why is consensus still bullish on China oil demand? The

10、experi- ence in developed markets (DMs) suggests that oil demand from automobiles can continue to grow when the local economy is upgrading from emerging market (EM) to DM status, which is the macro path China is likely to follow in the coming decade. Also, Chinas recent crude import appetite remains

11、 strong, which further enhances consensus conviction that oil demand in China will keep growing until 2035-40.Why do we think differently? EVs + HSR (electric vehicles and high speed rail) is a disruptive force on China oil demand: We believe China is likely to display unique travel mode/behavior ve

12、rsus other DM countries. As illustrated in HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Exhibit HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 12 , Chinas road traffic has continuously lost market share to railway traffic, which we believe is due to HSRs strong competitiveness in terms of conve- nience and comfort. We believe more people in Chi

13、na will prefer the EVs + HSR travel mode, instead of driving traditional ICE vehicles for long distances. Our AlphaWise visualization analysis shows the den- sity and scale of the HSR network still has more room for develop- ment, while our case study ( HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Exhibit HYPERLINK l _bo

14、okmark7 14 ) suggests EVs + HSR could consume zero oil versus 86L (22.7 gallons) per trip in an ICE vehicle.Significant EV penetration likely in 2025-40 + more PHEV launching: Our auto team remains bullish on Chinas EV outlook and forecasts Chinas EV penetration to reach 6.4% by 2020, 30% by 2030 an

15、d 80% by 2040. We also believe the plug-in hybrid electricvehicle (PHEV) could materially reduce gasoline consumption per vehicle, which is another disruptive force on gasoline demand, in addition to EVs.Battery technology innovation could make early disruption likely: In our latest battery trip in

16、China, we found that local battery companies are all aggressively carrying out R&D on NCM 811 bat- teries (so called because they have nickel-rich layered cathode mate- rials with an 8:1:1 proportion of nickel, cobalt and manganese, respectively) but there is lack of visibility about when NCM 811 ca

17、n achieve scale production. If NCM 811 innovation can achieve a break- through, that could accelerate the disruption given the energy den- sity would see a material improvement while battery costs will become more attractive.We expect China oil demand to peak in 2025, five to eight years ahead of ma

18、rket consensus: Considering the impact from EVs + HSR, we believe Chinas oil demand will peak in 2025 and gradually decline by 3.6 mnt per year from 2025. Such a scenario suggests China will no longer be the growth driver of global crude demand. We believe the refiners and petroleum stations are the

19、 largest potential losers, while the battery companies are likely to become the key win- ners in the coming five to seven years. We downgrade Sinopec to EW from OW after a recent 23% rally, as the risk-reward now looks fair in the near term.ContentsOrder of PreferenceKey Stock IdeasWhy Are European/

20、US Investors Bullish on Chinas Oil Demand?9Key Debate 1: Why Do We Believe EVs + HSR Is Likely to Become a Disruptive Force?17Key Debate 2: Do Hybrids Also Have an Impact?19Why Could Battery Improvement Accelerate an Oil Disruption Scenario?22 How We Derive our Base Case and Bear Case25 Key Winners

21、and Losers: Battery-related players versus Refiners28 Whats Changed?31Valuation Methodologies And RisksRisk-Reward: China Petroleum & Chemical H (0386.HK, HK$6.81, EW, PT HK$7.43)Risk-Reward: China Petroleum & Chemical A (600028.SS, Rmb6.08, EW, PT Rmb6.54)Risk-Reward: PetroChina H (0857.HK, HK$5.32

22、, OW, PT HK$5.89)Risk-Reward: PetroChina A (601857.SS, Rmb7.57, UW, PT Rmb5.18)PetroChina: Financial SummaryRisk-Reward Snapshot: Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ, Rmb88.50, UW, PT Rmb64)43 Risk-Reward Snapshot: Guoxuan High-Tech (002074.SZ, Rmb16.93, EW, PT Rmb14.00)45 Risk-Reward Snapsho

23、t: Yunnan Energy New Material (002812.SZ, Rmb55.84, OW, PT Rmb53.00)47 Risk-Reward Snapshot: Beijing Easpring (300073.SZ, Rmb31.31, OW, PT Rmb34.50)49 Risk-Reward Snapshot: Ningbo Shanshan (600884.SS, Rmb15.63, EW, PT Rmb15.50)51Risk-Reward: Daqin Railway Co. (601006.SS, Rmb8.85, OW, PT Rmb12.89)Ris

24、k-Reward Snapshot: Guangshen Railway (0525.HK, HK$3.46, EW, PT HK$3.85)Reward Snapshot: Guangshen Railway (601333.SS, Rmb3.84, EW, PT Rmb4.21)56 Risk-Reward Snapshot: LG Chem (051910.KS, W392,000, OW, PT W480,000)58 Risk-Reward Snapshot: CRRC-H (1766.HK, OW, PT HK$10.40)60 Risk-Reward Snapshot: Time

25、s Electric (3898.HK, OW, PT HK$60.40)62 Risk-Reward Snapshot: WeiChai-H (2338.HK, UW, PT HK$8.10)64 Risk-Reward Snapshot: Sinotruk (3808.HK, UW, PT HK$9.00)66 Risk-Reward Snapshot: Samsung SDI (006400.KS, OW, PT W260,000)Order of PreferenceExhibit 1:3808.HK002074.SZ 300750.SZ 2338.HK0386.HK600884.SS

26、0525.HK0857.HK002812.SZ300073.SZ1766.HK006400.KS601006.SS3898.HK051910.KSSinotrukCATLWeichaiGuoxuan High-TechSinopecShanshanGSRNew MaterialYunnan Energy PetroChinaEaspringLG ChemSamsung SDIDQRTime ElectricCRRCOrder of Preference: EV+HSR value chainRatingOverweightOverweightOverweight Overweight Over

27、weightOverweightOverweightOverweight Equal-Weight Equal-Weight Equal-Weight Equal-Weight Underweight Underweight Underweight Trading CurrencyKRWKRWCNYHKDHKDCNYCNYHKDCNYHKDHKDCNYCNYHKDHKD Price Target480,000.00260,000.0012.8960.4010.4034.5053.005.8915.503.857.43 14.00 64.00 8.10 9.00Current Price390,

28、500.00237,500.008.8844.458.3732.1759.005.2115.703.416.8117.0990.0311.3014.98Upside/(Downside) (%)23%9%45%36%24%7%-10%13%-1%13%9%-18%-29%-28%-40%Market Cap (in USD mm)23,894.014,836.519,689.96,657.237,167.62,095.44,170.4204,309.12,629.13,842.2108,790.32,897.129,170.811,854.25,269.7Buy/Overweight%42%2

29、5%33%27%20%0%22%18%24%10%5%44%0%13%7%35%0%0%0%5%5%14%5%26%5%0%5%0%0%6%0%Hold/Equal-weightSell/Underweight5378%5986%5680%65%100%89%82%68%95%100%Buy/Overweight Hold/Equal-weight Sell/UnderweightStreet View: Ratings94%Avg Daily Traded Vol (in USD mm)73.970.840.913.619.549.613.289.858.31.9107.929.3159.1

30、15.913.3Bull Case Value580,000.00310,000.0015.6699.8016.3044.0078.007.2724.005.469.7223.0089.0011.3030.00Upside (%)49%31%76%125%95%37%32%40%53%60%43%35%-1%0%100%Bear Case Value290,000.00190,000.007.4920.105.7017.0033.002.888.002.363.576.0040.004.604.70Downside (%)-26%-20%-16%-55%-32%-47%-44%-45%-49%

31、-31%-48%-65%-56%-59%-69%51,0024,6493,3400.89145,83920,74211,9240.7041,9538,4305,6572.079,3932,5041,3260.762,776,972205,53490,4900.4120,5893,8622,0890.2910,6021,5341,0000.512,577,867330,11771,3320.153,5831,3971,2562.054,1386375261.03257,24028,41220,6500.5320,9664,3563,9123.2181,33725,25419,2811.2110,

32、939,3501,597,325806,71512,667.0231,464,5154,162,1132,311,05523,333.27FY19eSales EBITDA EBIT EPSCNY56,3865,8194,5551.21CNY159,72722,51314,6820.98CNY28,4766,2544,3251.67CNY6,7691,9901,0250.63CNY2,475,821223,561115,1300.50CNY19,5683,3951,6740.18CNY9,3061,0777430.39CNY3,052,543385,948131,4610.29CNY2,618

33、8848271.46CNY3,5693863300.70CNY221,77324,43317,0000.43CNY16,4143,3072,8862.37CNY76,45622,94317,1651.07KRW9,446,1001,309,073718,46310,366.00KRW28,183,3013,770,0652,246,51121,406.82Morgan Stanley Estimates FY18eSales EBITDA EBITEPSRisk/Reward Skew1.91.54.92.33.00.80.70.91.12.00.90.5(0.0)0.01.5FY18 MSe

34、 vs. Consensus MeanSales1.3%0.4%3.7%3.8%1.3%-0.2%3.6%26.9%-9.6%-1.7%-7.2%11.9%-2.7%0.2%-7.8%EBITDA-2.7%-0.4%1.0%-1.1%1.5%-2.4%-2.2%5.6%-36.2%4.9%1.8%58.5%1.2%11.6%-9.6%EBIT-5.3%0.3%4.8%-1.5%-1.8%0.0%10.9%2.1%-35.9%9.2%10.0%14.8%0.1%15.8%-14.8%EPS-1.5%-7.1%9.4%4.3%2.2%0.9%27.1%-6.0%-59.5%-1.2%-12.0%-

35、15.3%0.3%1.8%-11.6%FY19 MSe vs. Consensus MeanSales0.6%-1.1%8.3%12.9%4.3%-12.2%2.1%5.8%-19.3%-2.7%3.1%14.9%6.5%-8.0%-18.0%EBITDA-1.0%-6.2%6.4%6.9%3.1%17.4%8.1%-9.6%-14.1%3.0%-8.1%74.3%3.1%3.7%-24.4%EBIT-3.3%-11.4%9.9%7.6%1.0%17.2%11.9%-44.8%-17.9%6.2%-13.1%30.4%4.5%-3.2%-35.4%14.4x9.5x6.8x0.6x5.5%13

36、.7x7.6x4.4x0.6x8.9%43.6x33.8x22.7x4.6x-1.9%22.5x17.0 x9.0 x2.4x-11.4%14.2x9.2x4.0 x0.3x5.3%10.0 x10.8x5.9x1.1x11.0%30.7x20.6x13.5x1.9x3.4%30.1x25.5x5.5x0.7x1.9%28.8x23.2x20.8x8.1x0.1%31.2x27.3x22.5x3.5x-1.0%13.4x12.0 x8.7x1.0 x4.7%11.8x10.1x9.0 x1.9x3.9%7.3x5.8x4.4x1.4x14.5%18.7x22.5x11.3x1.7x-3.9%1

37、6.7x14.3x7.9x1.0 x-13.6%10.6x5.5x4.3x0.4x6.9%9.9x5.1x3.3x0.5x9.7%54.0 x35.1x24.3x5.3x-3.1%26.9x14.5x7.5x2.2x-35.9%11.5x6.0 x3.1x0.3x14.8%16.5x11.8x5.8x1.0 x5.1%40.0 x23.8x16.4x1.9x-8.2%15.2x12.8x4.4x0.6x2.5%40.5x16.9x15.8x5.3x-5.2%46.1x30.8x26.3x2.8x-0.9%16.7x14.8x10.3x1.1x4.4%16.1x14.2x12.4x2.5x3.2

38、%8.3x6.4x4.8x1.4x14.5%23.4x22.9x12.6x1.7x-5.7%18.2x11.8x7.0 x0.9x-7.0%Valuation Multiples at Last Close FY18eP/E EV/EBIT EV/EBITDAEV/Sales FCF YieldFY19eP/E EV/EBIT EV/EBITDAEV/SalesFCF YieldEPS6.4%-13.0%21.8%14.7%7.7%11.2%12.4%-54.6%-44.1%30.4%-25.7%-8.5%-1.1%-22.8%-33.1%Implied Multiples on MS Pri

39、ce Target FY18eP/E22.4x25.6x12.1x21.8x20.7x49.4x36.4x17.2x39.5x18.6x12.6x22.1x38.4x7.1x6.3x EV/EBIT15.8x26.9x10.5x19.7x2.4x41.6x30.9x4.1x27.7x1.8x2.1x17.2x30.2x1.8x3.8x EV/EBITDA9.4x14.8x 7.8x 17.2x 1.7x 35.5x 28.9x 1.4x 19.1x 0.9x 1.1x 8.9x 20.9x 1.2x 3.0 x EV/Sales 1.3x 2.0 x 2.4x 3.5x 0.2x 3.8x 9

40、.8x 0.2x 2.2x 0.1x 0.1x 2.6x 4.6x 0.2x 0.3xFY19e1%17%55%27%5%35%25%26%14.8%12.5%148.7%22.0%37.6%36.1%(18.2%)47.8%4%2%8%22%5.9%11.4%(33.0%)15.6%16.9%0.9%(15.3%)21.5%3%(5%)(5%)7%24.0%17.1%13.2%19.4%12.1%15.9%24.2%16.2%7.6%14.7%15.9%9.6%1.3%5.8%3.5%2.4%2.1%15.2%(3.4%)7.9%4.6%15.0%39.3%8.4%6.1%13.0%1.8%

41、12.5%Stock Price Performance1 Month3 Month1 Year YTDP/E20.6x20.5x10.6x16.1x16.7x33.4x25.8x34.0 x30.3x11.3x15.5x18.4x31.0 x9.8x8.7x EV/EBIT17.0 x24.4x8.9x14.2x1.8x23.5x20.9x7.8x20.4x0.8x2.9x14.4x23.8x2.1x5.3x EV/EBITDA9.4x12.3x 6.8x 12.7x 1.3x 19.4x 18.8x 1.7x 13.3x 0.4x 1.3x 7.6x 16.0 x 1.2x 3.8x EV

42、/Sales 1.2x 1.8x 2.1x 2.6x 0.1x 3.0 x 7.3x 0.2x 1.9x 0.1x 0.1x 2.0 x 3.2x 0.2x 0.3xSource: Morgan Stanley Research, Thomson Reuters (consensus mean). e = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesNote: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results shown do not include transaction costs. Note: P

43、ricing data: 1 March, 2019.Key Stock IdeasTickerCompanyWinner or LoserSectorInvestment summary051910.KSLG ChemWinnerEV Battery MakerTo benefit from fast development of EV006400.KSSamsung SDIWinnerEV Battery MakerTo benefit from fast development of EV002074.SZGuoxuan High-TechWinnerEV Battery MakerTo

44、 benefit from fast development of EV300750.SZCATLWinnerEV Battery MakerTo benefit from fast development of EV300073.SZEaspringWinnerEV Battery ComponentsTo benefit from fast development of EV002812.SZYunnan Energy New MaterialWinnerEV Battery ComponentsTo benefit from fast development of EV600884.SS

45、ShanshanWinnerEV Battery ComponentsTo benefit from growing penetration of EV601006.SSDaqin RailwayWinnerRailway OperatorTo benefit from increasing volumes generally ledby the penetration of EV+HSR mode0525.HKGuangshen RailwayWinnerRailway OperatorTo benefit from increasing volumes generally ledby th

46、e penetration of EV+HSR mode3898.HK1766.HKTimes ElectricCRRCWinnerWinnerRailway Equipmenttiple units (MUs) amid further developed HSRnetworkTo benefit growing demand for high-speed mul-Railway Equipmenttiple units (MUs) amid further developed HSRnetwork0386.HK0857.HKSinopecPetroChinaLoserLoserEVs +

47、HSRs disruption on oil demand will pose Oil Refinery and Marketingrisks on Sinopecs refining and marketing busi-nessEVs + HSRs disruption on oil demand will pose Oil Refinery and Marketingrisks on PetroChinas refining and marketing busi-ness3808.HKSinotrukLoserHeavy duty truckRoad to rail policy wil

48、l continue to dilute demand from HDT to railway.2338.HKWeichaiLoserHeavy duty truckRoad to rail policy will continue to diluteTo benefit growing demand for high-speed mul-demand from HDT to railway.Source: Morgan Stanley ResearchWhy Are European/US Investors Bullish on Chinas Oil Demand?We believe t

49、he market remains bullish on Chinas oil demand given 1) the experience in DM suggests that the travel mile per vehicle can continue to increase, which will lead to further growth in oil demand; and 2) Chinas recent crude appetite remains strong, therefore, the bullish view on China oil demand could

50、find more spot data to support it.DM experience could lead to bullish view on oil demand as China is upgrading from EM to DMWhen investors look at China from a top-down perspective, expecting the country to upgrade from EM to DM status in the coming decade is a reasonable assumption. As a result, th

51、e experi- ence in the US will become a good reference for the economic/oil demand outlook. As illustrated in HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Exhibit HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 2 , the experience in the US suggests that the travel miles can grow steadily through the years, even with continuous engine efficiency i

52、mprovement or the launch of Tesla in 2008. As a result, it may look natural to assume that China, with strong economic growth, continuing urbanization and a signifi- cant expansion of the middle class, will behave similarly in terms of total travel miles in cars with increasing transportation needs

53、in theRecent data show that Chinas crude appetite remains strongIn 2017 and 2018, Chinas crude import growth reached 10.2% and 10.0%, respectively. In 2017, China surpassed the US as the largest crude oil importing country in the world. As illustrated in HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Exhibit HYPERLINK l _b

54、ookmark0 3 , the strong crude import data will easily help generate a positive long- term growth forecast of oil demand in China.Also, according to OPECs estimates in 2018, Chinas long-term oil demand is expected to continue to grow and reach 17.4 mn bpd in 2040, implying a 1.5% CAGR from 2017. Chin

55、a is expected to continue to be the largest consumer of oil with one of the highest CAGRs in the world, as illustrated in HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Exhibit HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 4 . Furthermore, OPEC also forecasts road transportation as a major contributor of oil demand growth in developing countries

56、 like China. Chinas oil demand from road trans- portation is expected to continuously grow at a 1.7% CAGR from 2017 to 2040, driving by an increasing car fleet.Exhibit 3:China crude oil net importsmn ton50 80% 45coming future. Those top-down assumptions will result in a bullish40view of Chinas oil d

57、emand.353025Exhibit 2:20Miles traveled by vehicles in the US1510Dec-09mn miles60%40%20%0%-20%Dec-18-40%3,5003,3003,1002,9002,7002,5002,3002,1001,9001,7001,5004%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018-3%Jun-10Dec-10Jun

58、-11Dec-11Jun-12Dec-12Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Crude Oil Net Import (LHS) YoY Growth (RHS)Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley researchTravel of Vehicle Miles YoY growth rate (RHS)Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: 2018 data base

59、d on moving 12-month day by November 2018.Exhibit 4:Long-term oil demand by region - OPEC forecastsExhibit 5:Oil demand in road transportation by region - OPEC forecastsmb/d12010080604020020172040CAGR (RHS)4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%mb/dOil demand in road transportation20172040CAGR (RHS)ChinaIndi

60、a Other Asia RussiaOECDLatinOPECAmericaGlobal60504030201006.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%ChinaIndia Other Asia RussiaOECDLatinAmericaOPECGlobalSource: OPEC World Oil Outlook 2018Source: OPEC World Oil Outlook 2018Key Debate 1: Why Do We Believe EVs + HSR Is Likely to Become a Disruptive Force