中国中小型食品企业：中国饮食变化（下）-西方化

1、Global Research3 June 2020China/HK Mid & Small CapsTheme #2: Chinas dietary changes (Part II) westernisationWesternisation dietary trend sets to accelerate in ChinaChinas dietary structure has evolved substantially in the past 70 years and is currently in the third stage. We identify four accelerati

2、ng trends: diet diversification; westernisation; flavour intensification; and standardisation. Following our deep-dive into diversification, we now analyse westernisation. Based on our proprietary Chinas Westernisation Index (CWI), we expect an 8.0% CAGR in 2019-24 (compared with 7.1% in 2015-19) fo

3、r Chinas western diet market, reaching Rmb1.46trn in 2024. We initiate coverage of Fujian Sunner (Buy), which not only operates in our preferred subsector, but also ranks at the top in our detailed scorecard.pointing to a market with substantial growth potentialBased on caloric intake, we have devel

4、oped the CWI, which measures the magnitude of dietary westernisation in China. After the stagnant stage prior to Chinas opening up in 1978, the Index has been rising gradually since the 1980s and accelerating in the 2000s. We expect CWI to reach 9.9% in 2025 from 7.5% in 2017, driven by:continued gl

5、obalisation; 2) demographic and lifestyle changes; and 3) rising health awareness. We estimate this would expand the western diet market in China from Rmb1.03trn in 2019 to Rmb1.46trn in 2024.White-feathered broiler (WFB) is our preferred subsectorWe adopt four criteria (market potential, fit with t

6、he healthy diet trend, threat from substitutes, and competitive landscape) to rank eight major subsectors in the western diet market. WFB ranks second in our league table (after nuts). Though not at the top in market potential, WFB prevails on all other criteria. Our quantitative analysis of the rel

7、ationship between the median age and caloric intake from poultry also indicates chicken consumption upside, supporting our forecast for the doubling of the WFB consumption volume in 2030.Initiate coverage of Fujian Sunner with a Buy ratingOur detailed scorecard (based on market dominance, vertical i

8、ntegration, financial performance and management dedication) ranks four leading listed WFB companies. Sunner tops the scorecard. Based on its integrated model, we think Sunner is well placed to benefit from WFB market consolidation. At 8x 2020E PE (in line with domestic peers), and easing earnings v

9、olatility because of rising integration, we expect Sunner to re-rate. Our alternative valuation method (based on NPV generated per chicken rearing slot) suggests a valuation of Rmb47bn, or Rmb38.00/share.Figure 1: UBS-S proprietary CWI should rise furtherkcal/capita/dayFoodChinaEquitiesSky HongAnaly

10、st S1460520010001 HYPERLINK mailto:sky.hong sky.hong+86-21-3866 8856Mandy Liu Associate HYPERLINK mailto:mandy.liu mandy.liu+86-21-3866 8831Ting Wang, CFAAnalyst S1460519070001 HYPERLINK mailto:ting-za.wang ting-za.wang+86-21-3866 8805Brad ChenAnalyst S1460516060001 HYPERLINK mailto:brad-a.chen brad

11、-a.chen+86-21-3866 8985Felix Liu Analyst S1460518040001 HYPERLINK mailto:felix-a.liu felix-a.liu+86-21-3866 885011.4%4,0003,0002,0001,0001960s - 1980sCWI remained extremely low and steady-0.5bps / year1980s - 2000sCWI gradually picked up+11.2bps / year2000s - 2017CWI further accelerated+30.0bps / ye

12、ar2.5%7.5%9.9%2018 - 2030ECWI continues to rise12%10%8%6%4%0.6%0.5%196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025202720290+30.0bp/year2%0%Calories from western diet (LHS)Calories from traditional diet (LHS) Source:

13、 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, UBS-S estimatesCWI (RHS) HYPERLINK / This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Co. Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 23. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research report

14、s. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 2China/HK Mid & Small Caps

15、 3 June 2020 3China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 4China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 5China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 6China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 7China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 8China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 9China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 10China/HK Mid

16、 & Small Caps 3 June 2020 11China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 12China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 13China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 14China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 15China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 16China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 17China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June

17、 2020 18China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 19China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 20China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 21We would like to thank Christine Peng (christine-y.peng) for providing some of the information used in this report.Valuation Method and Risk StatementWe derive our price ta

18、rget for Sunner from a three-stage DCF methodology.Risks to our forecasts include: 1) large-scale animal disease epidemics, which could cause the companys production to fall, and even if production is not affected, demand could be affected by the epidemic impact on consumer behaviour;large-scale pan

19、demics resulting in substantial declines in the catering industry and impacting Sunners business as Sunner is the main supplier for fast-food businesses; 3) oversupply in the WFB industry causing the price of WFB to decline sharply, putting pressure on Sunners profitability; 4) sharp fluctuations in

20、 raw material prices: corn and soybean meal accounted for over 50% of Sunners production costs, so any sharp price rise would impact the companys profitability; and 5) restrictions resulting from environmental protection and land policies.China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 22Required DisclosuresT

21、his report has been prepared by UBS Securities Co. Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as UBS.For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its research product; historical performance in

22、formation; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit HYPERLINK /disclosures /disclosures. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a

23、 reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or

24、 in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 03 June 2020 02:30 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the

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26、onsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations.Analyst Certification:Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this repo

27、rt: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to UBS, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific

28、 recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions12-Month RatingDefinitionCoverage1IB Services2BuyFSR is 6% above the MRA.48%32%NeutralFSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA.40%28%SellFSR is 6% below the MRA.13

29、%20%Short-Term RatingDefinitionCoverage3IB Services4BuyStock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.1%1%SellStock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific c

30、atalyst or event.1%1%Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 31 March 2020.1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category.2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12

31、 months.3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category.4:Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.KEY DEFINITIONS:Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as

32、 expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months. In some cases, this yield may be based on accrued dividends. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk pr

33、emium). Under Review (UR) Stocks may be flagged as UR by the analyst, indicating that the stocks price target and/or rating are subject to possible change in the near term, usually in response to an event that may affect the investment case or valuation. Short-Term Ratings reflect the expected near-

34、term (up to three months) performance of the stock and do not reflect any change in the fundamental view or investment case. Equity Price Targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 23EXCEPTIONS AND SPECIAL CASES:UK and European Investment Fund ratings and d

35、efinitions are: Buy: Positive on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Neutral: Neutral on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Sell: Negative on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount. Core Banding Exception

36、s (CBE): Exceptions to the standard +/-6% bands may be granted by the Investment Review Committee (IRC). Factors considered by the IRC include the stocks volatility and the credit spread of the respective companys debt. As a result, stocks deemed to be very high or low risk may be subject to higher

37、or lower bands as they relate to the rating. When such exceptions apply, they will be identified in the Company Disclosures table in the relevant research piece.Research analysts contributing to this report who are employed by any non-US affiliate of UBS Securities LLC are not registered/qualified a

38、s research analysts with FINRA. Such analysts may not be associated persons of UBS Securities LLC and therefore are not subject to the FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. The name of each affiliat

39、e and analyst employed by that affiliate contributing to this report, if any, follows.UBS Securities Co. Limited: Sky Hong; Mandy Liu; Ting Wang, CFA; Brad Chen; Felix Liu.Company DisclosuresCompany NameReuters12-month ratingShort-term ratingPricePrice dateFujian Sunner Development002299.SZNot Rated

40、N/A Rmb27.2702 Jun 2020 Source: UBS. All prices as of local market close.Ratings in this table are the most current published ratings prior to this report. They may be more recent than the stock pricing dateUnless otherwise indicated, please refer to the Valuation and Risk sections within the body o

41、f this report. For a complete set of disclosure statements associated with the companies discussed in this report, including information on valuation and risk, please contact UBS Securities LLC, 1285 Avenue of Americas, New York, NY 10019, USA, Attention: Investment Research.Fujian Sunner Developmen

42、t (Rmb)Price Target(Rmb)Stock Price (Rmb)40.030.020.010.001-Apr-1701-Jun-1701-Aug-1701-Oct-1701-Dec-1701-Feb-1801-Apr-1801-Jun-1801-Aug-1801-Oct-1801-Dec-1801-Feb-1901-Apr-1901-Jun-1901-Aug-1901-Oct-1901-Dec-1901-Feb-2001-Apr-2001-Jun-200.0Buy Neutral No RatingDateStock Price (Rmb)Price Target (Rmb)

43、Rating2017-03-0218.5923.54Buy2017-07-2716.9517.41Neutral2018-01-2214.6316.5Neutral2018-06-2215.1717.3Neutral2018-10-0917.1518.0Neutral2019-04-2227.1-No RatingSource: UBS; as of 02 Jun 2020China/HK Mid & Small Caps 3 June 2020 24The Disclaimer relevant to Global Wealth Management clients follows the

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