电力公用事业：Btu的未来

1、Global Research24 March 2020Power & UtilitiesFuture of the Btu: Updating the State of the GridPlease join us for a conference call Thursday, March 26th at 11am ET to dicuss the key highlights from this report.Register for the call here.Renewable Penetration Increases Through 2030We are updating our

2、State of the Grid analysis as we begin to look at the Future of the Btu in the US economy. Our first state of the grid analysis was published in December 2018 (link). In our updated analysis, we extend our forecast period from 2025 through 2030. We see three main conclusions from the analysis: (1) r

3、enewable penetration increases, particularly in the unregulated markets in 2026+ as costs continue to decline. (2) Natural gas is required to provide a bridge fuel through 2030 despite renewable penetration. Except in ERCOT, renewables cause some marginal amount of less efficient natural gas capacit

4、y to get pushed out of the stack. In the regulated regions gas demand increases throughout the forecast period, but decelerates in 2026-2030. (3) The biggest opportunity set for upside from steel for fuel and carbon emission improvement, which is becoming a more important ESG metric, are in the Midw

5、est and the Southeast. There are significant coal fleets left to retire in these regions and renewables are slowly becoming more cost competitive in these geographies. From a company perspective we see continued renewable penetration as positive for NEE (Buy, $255 PT), and the biggest potential for

6、upside capital deployment opportunities for D (Buy, $87 PT), DUK (Buy, $105 PT), PNM Resources (Neutral, $59 PT), SO (Neutral, $56 PT), and XEL (Neutral, $65 PT). Our analysis in this report takes a long-term view on new capacity demand and does not reflect potential near-term COVID-19 driven impact

7、s. For our near-term thoughts please see: Now & Then: A Roadmap for Utility Investors & Alternative Energy: Fundamental Impacts.Electric Vehicles Could Meaningfully Accelerate GrowthOur base case assumes EV growth accelerates after the release of new models in 2022 and contributes 0.4% to annual gro

8、wth in 2030. We assume EVs represent 15% of auto sales in 2030 in the base case and 30% in the upside case. Nationwide we forecast EVs represent 2.1% of electricity sales in by 2030 in the base case and 4.3% in the upside case. Growth is highest On the Coasts initially. We utilize UBS Global Autos d

9、emand forecast from Patrick Hummel. (Link)Publishing our interactive wind, solar & gas modelWe publish our updated generation cost interactive model for wind, solar, and gas turbine generation. The model enables cost analysis across 13 ISOs with varying renewable resource availability. User controll

10、ed variables include capital cost, natural gas prices, CO2 tax, and subsidy scenarios.UtilitiesNorth AmericaEquitiesDaniel Ford, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:dan.ford dan.ford+1-212-713-2224Jon Windham, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:jon.windham jon.windham+1-617-478-4711Ross Fowler, CFAAnalyst HYPERLIN

11、K mailto:ross.fowler ross.fowler+1-212-713-1287Gregg OrrillAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:gregg.orrill gregg.orrill+1-212-713 1064Paul ColeAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:paul.cole paul.cole+1-212-713-8672William Grippin, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:william.grippin william.grippin+1-617-478 4740 HYPERLINK /inves

12、tmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 63. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a con

13、flict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Introduction: The Future of the US Supply Side BTU is Electricity MarketsWe are updating the generation dispatch model we built and fi

14、rst published in December 2018 (THE State of the Grid, December 13, 2018). We see this as the first of a Future of series to focus on the evolving generation profile in the United States that can lead to further research efforts around the Future of the composition of the end use Btus in the economy

15、. The dispatch model builds a supply stack of generation plants for all the regional markets to try to scale the opportunity set for renewable penetration of the grid, the at risk generation in competitive markets, and the steel for fuel opportunity in regulated markets. Steel for fuel, so coined by

16、 Xcel Energy refers to the opportunity for regulated companies to replace uneconomic and largely/fully depreciated plant with an alternative generation source with similar costs to customers, higher rate base for shareholders, and an improved environmental profile for policy makers.Regulated Markets

17、 and Steel for FuelThe model reviewed both the full MWs of coal capacity by owner that would be available for steel for fuel execution and the potential MWs of capacity (fully depreciated but not uneconomic coal capacity) that could be available for steel for fuel opportunities should renewable econ

18、omics or policy driven penetration accelerate. The MWs available for Steel for Fuel are largest in the Midwest and Southeast US. The gross opportunity in regulated jurisdictions are greatest for Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, PNM Resources, Southern Company, and Xcel Energy. On a scaled basis, the la

19、rgest MWs of opportunity vs. size of the company (total revenues) are at Duke Energy, OGE Energy, PNM Resources, Portland General, Southern Company and Xcel Energy.Ranked MWs by 2025Ranked MWs by 2030Ranked MWs by 2040Duke Energy CorporationDuke Energy CorporationDuke Energy CorporationSouthern Comp

20、anySouthern CompanySouthern CompanyXcel Energy Inc.Xcel Energy Inc.Xcel Energy Inc.Dominion Energy, Inc.Dominion Energy, Inc.Dominion Energy, Inc.PNM ResourcesOGE Energy Corp.NiSource Inc.DTE Energy CompanyPNM ResourcesOGE Energy Corp.OGE Energy Corp.NiSource Inc.PNM ResourcesNiSource Inc.Emera Inco

21、rporatedAmerican Electric Power Co.Emera IncorporatedDTE Energy CompanyEmera IncorporatedCMS Energy CorporationEvergy, Inc.DTE Energy CompanyAES CorpAlliant Energy CorporationEvergy, Inc.Ameren CorporationCMS Energy CorporationAlliant Energy CorporationNextEra Energy, Inc.American Electric Power Co.

22、CMS Energy CorporationPortland General ElectricWEC Energy Group, Inc.WEC Energy Group, Inc.EntergyAES CorpAES CorpWEC Energy Group, Inc.Ameren CorporationAmeren CorporationAlliant Energy CorporationNextEra Energy, Inc.NextEra Energy, Inc.Evergy, Inc.Portland General ElectricPortland General Electric

23、PPL CorporationEntergyEntergyAmerican Electric Power Co.Pinnacle West Capital CorporationPinnacle West Capital CorporationPinnacle West Capital CorporationPPL CorporationPPL CorporationCenterPoint Energy, Inc.CenterPoint Energy, Inc.CenterPoint Energy, Inc.Figure 1: Ranked Absolute MWs of Steel for

24、Fuel Opportunity to 2025 | 2030 | 2040Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, UBS Equity Research EstimatesRanked MWs by 2025Ranked MWs by 2030Ranked MWs by 2040PNM ResourcesPNM ResourcesPNM ResourcesOGE Energy Corp.OGE Energy Corp.OGE Energy Corp.Portland General ElectricPortland General ElectricPo

25、rtland General ElectricDuke Energy CorporationDuke Energy CorporationNiSource Inc.NiSource Inc.NiSource Inc.Duke Energy CorporationXcel Energy Inc.Southern CompanySouthern CompanyAlliant Energy CorporationXcel Energy Inc.Xcel Energy Inc.Southern CompanyAlliant Energy CorporationAlliant Energy Corpor

26、ationEmera IncorporatedEvergy, Inc.Evergy, Inc.CMS Energy CorporationEmera IncorporatedEmera IncorporatedAmeren CorporationPinnacle West Capital CorporationPinnacle West Capital CorporationEvergy, Inc.CMS Energy CorporationCMS Energy CorporationDominion Energy, Inc.Ameren CorporationAmeren Corporati

27、onDTE Energy CompanyWEC Energy Group, Inc.WEC Energy Group, Inc.Pinnacle West Capital CorporationDominion Energy, Inc.Dominion Energy, Inc.WEC Energy Group, Inc.DTE Energy CompanyDTE Energy CompanyAES CorpAES CorpAmerican Electric Power Co.PPL CorporationPPL CorporationAES CorpEntergyEntergyPPL Corp

28、orationNextEra Energy, Inc.American Electric Power Co.EntergyCenterPoint Energy, Inc.NextEra Energy, Inc.NextEra Energy, Inc.American Electric Power Co.CenterPoint Energy, Inc.CenterPoint Energy, Inc.Figure 2: Ranked Scaled MWs of Steel for Fuel Opportunity to 2025 | 2030 | 2040Source: S&P Global Ma

29、rket Intelligence, UBS Equity Research EstimatesRenewable penetration could accelerate across our forecast timeline. This increased penetration could be driven either through cost reduction beyond that which we forecast, or by further demand pushes from corporate purchased power agreements to go gre

30、en or increased renewable or clean energy standards at state or federal levels. Should this accelerated penetration occur, some companies would have coal capacity that would shift from economic to uneconomic in our forecast and have greater potential for steel for fuel opportunities, but also some p

31、otential cost recovery challenges as well. The biggest opportunity sets for steel for fuel upside are at Ameren Corp., DTE Energy, Duke Energy, and Southern Company.If the MWs of upside opportunity are scaled to company size, the greatest exposure belongs to Ameren Corp., Evergy, OGE Energy, and PNM

32、 Resources. Southern Company on either metric moves up the opportunity rankings as the forecast moves further out it time, with a larger opportunity from 2030-2040.Upside to 2025 RetirementsUpside to 2030 RetirementsUpside to 2040 RetirementsAmeren CorporationAmeren CorporationAmeren CorporationEver

33、gy, Inc.DTE Energy CompanySouthern CompanyDuke Energy CorporationDuke Energy CorporationPPL CorporationDTE Energy CompanyEvergy, Inc.EntergyPinnacle West Capital CorporationPPL CorporationDTE Energy CompanyPPL CorporationPinnacle West Capital CorporationDuke Energy CorporationXcel Energy Inc.Alliant

34、 Energy CorporationEvergy, Inc.WEC Energy Group, Inc.EntergyPinnacle West Capital CorporationCMS Energy CorporationXcel Energy Inc.Alliant Energy CorporationAlliant Energy CorporationAmerican Electric Power Co.Xcel Energy Inc.American Electric Power Co.WEC Energy Group, Inc.American Electric Power C

35、o.OGE Energy Corp.CMS Energy CorporationWEC Energy Group, Inc.CenterPoint Energy, Inc.OGE Energy Corp.CMS Energy CorporationAES CorpPNM ResourcesAES CorpPNM ResourcesSouthern CompanyOGE Energy Corp.Portland General ElectricCenterPoint Energy, Inc.PNM ResourcesNiSource Inc.AES CorpCenterPoint Energy,

36、 Inc.Southern CompanyPortland General ElectricPortland General ElectricEmera IncorporatedNiSource Inc.NiSource Inc.Dominion Energy, Inc.Emera IncorporatedEmera IncorporatedEntergyDominion Energy, Inc.Dominion Energy, Inc.NextEra Energy, Inc.NextEra Energy, Inc.NextEra Energy, Inc.Figure 3: Ranked Ab

37、solute MWs Upside to Steel for Fuel Opportunity to 2025 | 2030 | 2040Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, UBS Equity Research EstimatesFigure 4: Ranked Scaled MWs Upside to Steel for Fuel Opportunity to 2025 | 2030 | 2040Upside to 2025 RetirementsUpside to 2030 RetirementsUpside to 2040 Retiremen

38、tsAmeren CorporationAmeren CorporationAmeren CorporationPNM ResourcesPNM ResourcesPNM ResourcesOGE Energy Corp.OGE Energy Corp.OGE Energy Corp.Evergy, Inc.Evergy, Inc.Evergy, Inc.Pinnacle West Capital CorporationAlliant Energy CorporationAlliant Energy CorporationPortland General ElectricPinnacle We

39、st Capital CorporationPinnacle West Capital CorporationAlliant Energy CorporationDuke Energy CorporationPPL CorporationDuke Energy CorporationDTE Energy CompanySouthern CompanyDTE Energy CompanyPPL CorporationDuke Energy CorporationPPL CorporationXcel Energy Inc.EntergyXcel Energy Inc.Portland Gener

40、al ElectricDTE Energy CompanyCMS Energy CorporationSouthern CompanyXcel Energy Inc.NiSource Inc.NiSource Inc.Portland General ElectricWEC Energy Group, Inc.CMS Energy CorporationNiSource Inc.Southern CompanyEntergyCMS Energy CorporationEmera IncorporatedEmera IncorporatedEmera IncorporatedDominion E

41、nergy, Inc.WEC Energy Group, Inc.WEC Energy Group, Inc.AES CorpAmerican Electric Power Co.American Electric Power Co.EntergyDominion Energy, Inc.AES CorpAmerican Electric Power Co.AES CorpDominion Energy, Inc.NextEra Energy, Inc.NextEra Energy, Inc.CenterPoint Energy, Inc.CenterPoint Energy, Inc.Cen

42、terPoint Energy, Inc.NextEra Energy, Inc.Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, UBS Equity Research EstimatesState of the GridBased on our detailed modeling analysis of individual U.S. regional markets, we expect 326GW of new generation capacity to be added in the continental U.S. by 2030. The unde

43、rlying demand drivers are the economic replacement of more expensive capacity, expected retirements, underlying load growth, and State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) mandates.Figure 5: U.S. generation demand to 2030Wind & solar 65% of new capacity in coming decade(GW)WindSolarCCGTCTNuclearTotal

44、Economic Displacement302126-280Expected Retirements1624238-71Load Growth2520183-66Economic demand716567112217DG Solar-43-43RPS true-up1521(10)41-67Total demand8612858522326Source: State filings, S&P Global Market Intelligence, UBS researchWe break out the underlying capacity demand drivers from econ

45、omic displacement, retirements, load growth, distributed generation and RPS mandates.Figure 6: Total market new generating capacity drivers 2019-2030GW 140120100806040200WindSolarNat GasEconomic DisplacementExpected RetirementsLoad Growth DG solarRPS true-upSource: State filings, S&P Global Market I

46、ntelligence, UBS researchEV Penetration upsideWe assume EVs represent 15% of auto sales in 2030 in the base case and 30% in the upside case. The EV upside case would increase our total new generation capacity to 2030 by 7%.IncrementalChange to EV Total in EVover baseBase caseupside upside casecase(G

47、W)Figure 7: EV upside scenario, new capacity demandUS total326233507.2%Source: UBS research estimatesGeography of the US Power GridThe US power grid is regional in nature and is divided between independent system operators (ISOs) and/or National Electricity Reliability Council (NERC) regions and sub

48、-regions. We therefore model each regional market separately. The map below and the description algorithms are provided for geographic clarity.Figure 8: NERC Sub-Regions MapNOTE: Our analysis combines the SERC into one region, and splits PJM into PJM West and PJM East Source: North America Reliabili

49、ty Council (NERC), UBS Equity ResearchERCOT-Electric Reliability Council of Texas. LinkFRCC-Florida Reliability Coordinating Council. LinkMISO-Midcontinent Independent System Operator LinkNWPP-Northwest Power Pool. LinkNPCC-Northeast Power Coordinating Council Link contains both NYISO Link and ISO-N

50、E LinkPJM-Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. LinkRMRG-Rocky Mountain Reserve Group. LinkSERC-Southeast Reliability Council. LinkSPP-Southwest Power Pool. LinkSRSG-Southwest Reserve Sharing Group. LinkWECC-Western Electricity Coordinating Council. LinkNatural Gas Demand Through 2030Our model fore

51、casts 9.01 Bcf/day of increased gas demand by 2030, which is slightly higher than double our last forecast which was for 4.09 Bcf/day through 2025. We think the path will be for more incremental gas demand through 2025. For the regulated regions 2.68 Bcf/day of demand will be seen through 2025, and

52、2.46Bcf/day from 2026-2030. Thus the acceleration of increasing demand should decrease from 2026-2030. The reason for this is that renewables begin to penetrate further into the stack from 2026-2030 as costs continue to come down and CCGTs actually net retire in every competitive region save ERCOT b

53、y the end of the decade.The highest demand in the regulated markets will be in SERC. This is due to the longer dated remaining coal fleet retirements that we forecast to happen in that region into 2030 and beyond. On the competitive market side, ERCOT and PJM West show the highest increase in demand

54、 as the proximity of basins for natural gas keep the resource cheap even as renewable resources decline in cost, and demand growth requires natural gas to continue to be part of the capacity mix.Figure 9: Gas Generation Additions and Incremental Net Demand By Market to 2030GWsCCGTCTsTotalGWhsCCGTCTs

55、Bcf/dayCCGTCTsTotalCompetitive MarketsERCOT9.30.09.356,882-1.09-1.09PJM East1.75.06.710,7297,822PJM West12.27.719.974,84512,1721.440.331.77NEISO2,3123,0600.040.080.13NYISO5,5209,5560.110.260.37CAISO0.80.00.84,932-0.09-0.09Competitive Total25.320.746.0155,22032,6152.980.

56、893.87Regulated MarketsFRCC5.17.612.731,16912,0120.600.330.93MISO2.75.07.716,5647,8960.320.220.53NWPP51,7532,3260.990.061.06RMPA/RMRG15,9308280.310.020.33SERC12.88.821.678,62513,8051.510.381.89SPP0.03.33.3-5,203-0.140.14SRSG4,2416,8670.080.190.27Regulated Totals32.331.063.

57、4198,282.2048,937.273.801.345.14Overall Total57.651.7109.4353,50281,5526.782.239.01Source: UBS Equity ResearchCapacity demand by ISOOur power stack analysis in each individual market is predicated upon demand growth forecasts, known and forecast plant retirements, state Renewable Portfolio Standards

58、, target reserve margins for reliability, market clearing price and cost assumptions.Figure 10: U.S. generating capacity demand by Market to 2030(GW)WindSolarCCGTCTNuclearTotalCompetitive marketsERCOT1989-36PJM East6925-22PJM West320128-43NEISO6502-13NYISO61216-25CAISO5161-22Competitive total4570252

59、1-161Regulated MarketsFRCC-1958-32MISO181435-40NWPP7481-22RMPA2131-6SERC210139236SPP100-3-13SRSG2914-16Regulated totals415832312166Total8612858522326Source: State filings, S&P Global Market Intelligence, UBS researchRenewablesOur analysis points towards 86GW of wind (54% above EIA) and 128GW (5% abo

60、ve EIA) of solar through 2030. This provides just a baseline for US renewable demand. In our view there is further, and likely, significant potential upside in renewable demand to 2030 driven by:Increased 2030 RPS mandates from states that have met their 2015-2025 targets and spreading adoption of 2