假日购物季预测报告

1、MethodologyAnalysis of more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. based retail websites.Product and pricing insights based on analysis of sales of more than 100 million unique products.Adobe Analytics measures transactions at 80 of the top 100* U.S. online retailers more than any other technology company.S

2、hipping and returns analysis based on millions of orders in 2019, email analysis using more than 29B emails sentin 2019.Companion research based on a survey of 1,000+ U.S. consumers (18+ years) in Oct 2020.*Per Internet Retailer 2018 eGuide2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Key find

3、ings2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.COVID-19 + holiday spending will drive record gains for e-commerceOnline holiday season spend could reach as much as $189 billion dollars at 33% YoY growth.COVID-informed online demand remains elevated and will ensure record-shattering Black Fr

4、iday & Cyber Monday sales days, while propelling shopping growth in early November. Black Friday is expected to reach $10 billion!To mitigate shipping, inventory, and logistical challenges, retailers will begin discounting in early November, in order to spur earlier purchasing and demand.The new sho

5、pping playbook for the COVID eraNormally, holidays bring a sudden jolt to e-commerce websites. This year, going into the holidays, online retailers are seeing shopping on steroids.On smartphones, buying intent, and the number of products in them are already running hotter than last holiday season, b

6、reaking all historical patterns.A shipping season unlike any otherOnline commerce and shipping behaviors are already at holiday levels before even entering the season.BOPIS (buy online, pickup in store) growth is expected to explode over the holiday season, as consumers look to acquire items without

7、 shipping costs and fast delivery.David vs. Goliath vs. COVIDLarge retailers ($1 billion+) are expected toinitiate deals earlier and continue to grow their share of total holiday spend over small retailers ($10-50 million).However, the holiday season continues to be important for smaller retailers t

8、hey are able to drive higher sales boosts from the holiday season relative to the rest of the year.The smaller retailers have also been more effective in driving traffic from new customers.Top gifts for an unprecedented holidayNew game consoles and related accessories are expected to top gift lists,

9、 along with perennial favorites.Smartphones to reach new heights despite in-home shoppingConsumers will do 42% of their shopping from smartphones this holiday season.Online Retail Spend PredictionsAn unprecedented year will lead to an uncertain holiday season.E-commerce holiday season likely to see

10、two years worth of growth, reaching $189B, +33% YoYThe online holiday season is forecast to break all its past growth records and grow 33% YoY to$189B.*The uncertainty that 2020 has brought to the economy and the challenges around social distancing at physical stores make this holiday season unique.

11、Since last holiday season e-commerce has seen growth of over 120% on some days, while hitting lows of 25% on others.*Unchanged physical stores|Unchanged disposable income*This forecast depends on the continuation of the current trend into the season.* The highest growth day was May 9 at +128% YoY202

12、0 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Theres potential for over $200B, at +47% YoY, or “just” $171B, at +20%The two factors that had the biggest impact on the spike of e-commerce activity in May were the shutdowns of physical stores and the spike in consumer disposable income due to the s

13、timulus check and extra unemployment benefits.If flu season brings with it a spike in cases and an increase in store restrictions, a reduced store capacity will drive more people online.E-commerce is still only around one out of every $4 spent on retail. Thats a large bucket of dollars that could mo

14、ve online, leading to potential for big swings this season.Limited physical stores High disposable incomeAvailable physical stores Low disposable income2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Retailers vs. habit: Is 2020 the year when retailers manage to create Cyber Month?For the past c

15、ouple of years, retailers have been trying to move sales up earlier in the season, encountering some resistance from consumers although last year the seven days before Thanksgiving grew by 28% YoY.The “golden hours” of retail are the biggest manifestation of consumer propensity to delay their shoppi

16、ng. The last four hours of Cyber Monday draw more revenue than an average day.This year, with the shipping infrastructure already running hot, retailers have extra incentive to spread out the demand and decrease the delays in shipments.2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Black Friday

17、 expected to reach the $10B mark this yearThis years Black Friday wont have as much “door-busting” as per usual. Retailers are pushing deals up and promising Black Friday deals to last for “all of November and December.”However, many consumers have more than a decade of experience and a habit of goi

18、ng to the local mall to hunt for deals on the day after Thanksgiving.Store capacity limits will create big lines and turn many consumers away at the door, pulling them online. This large amount of spend thats typically made offline could add enough spend to the digital version of Black Friday to sur

19、pass Cyber Monday.2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Pandemic Shopping PlaybookShop early for the best discounts and delivery peace of mind.BOPIS gives procrastinators options, not without potential frustrationBOPIS was the top fulfillment method in the days leading up to Christmas

20、2019 (Dec 21 23), at nearly 40% of orders at retailers that offer BOPIS. We expect that to top 50% this year.As people scrambled to get last minute gifts last year, December 22 saw almost double the typical share of expedited orders, at 6%.Early this year we saw BOPIS usage surge in response to the

21、pandemic from 15% of orders to 25% (65% share increase) expect to see long lines for picking up orders during holiday shopping.Dont count on expedited shipping to help avoid the BOPIS lines this year fewer retailers have offered expedited shipping so far this year as they scrambled to keep up with t

22、he influx of orders in March and April, and consequently the expedited share dropped to 1%.52% of shoppers prefer one-day shipping for last-minute purchases, while 37% choose in-store pickup.2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Be on the lookout for free shipping being a key different

23、iatorBased on Adobes Magento Commerce data, holiday shipping cost historically decreases by 9.2% overall compared to the rest of the year.Much of that discount comes from free shipping, which might be harder to come by this year excluding free shipping orders, shipping cost increases by 1.7%.The “sp

24、end x to get free shipping” threshold drops by 4.1% overall during the holiday season, with the day after Cyber Monday threshold clocking in at almost 50% lower than the rest of the holiday season.Based on previous years trends (before COVID-19), December 11 (two Fridays before Christmas) would be t

25、he last day for cheaper shipping, with shipping cost peaking from there at 14.6% higher than the rest of the holiday season. Expect that to be pushed earlier this year!2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Rushed last minute shopping means well but doesnt always pan outOur survey indic

26、ates 15% of gift receivers returned more than a quarter of their gifts last season.Orders placed the day before Thanksgiving are 51% more likely to be returned than orders placed on Thanksgiving. Its likely that the items are being returned, in hopes of acquiring cheaper sales items, over the follow

27、ing sales daysThe most likely items to be returned are from orders purchased on December 23 either the gift is unwanted or doesnt show up on time. These orders are 52% more likely to be returned.*With discounts being pushed earlier this season, and potential shipping delays, make sure youre planning

28、 on doing your holiday shopping early!*Compared to the rest of Nov and Dec2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Early discounting to escalate through NovemberSignificant holiday discounting will be initiated within the first two weeks of November and will build to the deepest category

29、price drops over Black Friday through Cyber Week, and into December.49% of consumers believe they will get the best prices online on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.Below are the dates expected to drive the best possible discounts, for their respective categories:2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe

30、 Confidential.Adobes holiday toy watch listPlayStation 5Xbox Series XNintendo SwitchCyberpunk 2077Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold WarSpider-Man: Miles MoralesMario Kart Live Home CircuitSuper Mario 3D All-StarsRainbocornsCutetitosLittle Live PetsStar Wars ToysLego SetsHatchimals PixiesL.O.L. Surprise!B

31、eybladeKindi Kids2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Flexible payment purchasing expected to rise over holiday seasonThe District of Columbia, California, Maryland, New York, Delaware, Georgia, and New Jersey are the highest utilizers of interest-free payment installment options, whe

32、n purchasing, according to Klarna.*2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.*The statistics come from Klarnas database of transactions made with retailers offering Klarna as well as through the app (from Jan 1 Sept 30, 2020), which enables consumers to shop with Klarna at any online store

33、. The map shows a representative indexed average per state per capita compared to the national average US consumer.Klarna leverages transaction data from its own systems to identify trends and insights to shopping behavior across 9 million consumers, 1.7 million monthly active app users, and more th

34、an 4,300 retail partners in the U.S.Retailer PlaybookDeliver the best online shopping experience for the largest online crowd yet.Use free shipping as a tool to drive sales earlier in the seasonConsumers have come to expect free shipping during Nov and Dec the share of free shipping orders increases

35、 by 8.6% during the holiday season.*Over 70% of orders on Black Friday weekend have had free shipping, peaking on Sunday at almost 73%.64% of respondents wont pay for faster or expedited shipping this year retailers need to communicate earlier free shipping cutoff dates to capture purchases earlier.

36、According to our survey research, consumers have a strong affinity for free shipping, with 75% of them claiming that its an important factor in their desire to buy online. By offering free shipping and communicating cutoff dates, retailers have an opportunity to drive sales earlier in the season, he

37、lping mitigate shipping issues.*Comparing daily sales in Nov - Dec vs. Jan Oct2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.BOPIS gives retailers with a physical presence an edgeRetailers who offer BOPIS will have an advantage this year as shoppers try to avoid crowds and paying high shipping

38、costs.On big days during holiday shopping, people are 9% more likely to purchase with a retailer who offers BOPIS. In March and April, that jumped to 30%.Already this year weve seen BOPIS growth skyrocket in April and May to over 120% YoY. Last holiday season, BOPIS order growth reached 22%. We expe

39、ct growth this holiday to reach over 40% YoY.The main reason 19% of consumers choose BOPIS this year is because its safer than buying in store in 2019, that number was only 4%.71% of consumers expect to shop for more items while picking up an item with BOPIS, down from 82% in 2019.2020 Adobe. All Ri

40、ghts Reserved. Adobe Confidential.A visit will be much more valuable, an order not so muchThe value of a visit is predicted to grow at an unprecedented rate.Consumers arent wasting time theyre visiting 18% fewer pages per order and spending 17% less time per order.However, an order wont be bigger or

41、 more valuable this year.The order value being flat brings challenges to the profitability and shipping logistics. There will be an increase in packages this holiday season that will follow directly the increase in spend.2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Smartphones taking over onl

42、ine shopping despite increase in work from homeWith the decrease in time spent commuting combined with continued usage of computers while working from home, some thought the advance of smartphones as preferred shopping device would stall.However, smartphone shopping growth has continued at an accele

43、rated rate.We predict that consumers will do 42% of their shopping from smartphones this holiday season.$28B more will be spent on smartphones this year.2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Shoppers will be reliant on retailers delivering a good gift experienceAs fewer people are trav

44、eling to be with family this year, expect an increase in gifts being shipped directly from the retailer. Gift wrapping and gift guides will shape the shopping experience.Shoppers typically send 18% more gifts to other peoples addresses during the holiday season, peaking at 67% more on December 17 (t

45、he Tuesday of the week before Christmas).The Saturday of Thanksgiving weekend is when consumers are shopping for themselves, with gift purchases 22% under the average.increase in holiday gifts shipped2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Search engines will be more important than ever

46、during Holiday 2020Search will drive a 9% higher share of purchases this holiday season, almost reaching the 50% mark at 46.5% of total online shopping revenue.In the high-intent e-commerce environment, its natural that organic search is set to see the biggest increase in shopping driven at +12% YoY

47、.Email is the channel taking the biggest hit this season, with an 8% decrease in share.Social networks are notorious at driving mostly awareness instead of direct purchases. While growing 14% over last year, itll barely surpass 3% of purchases this season.2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confi

48、dential.New customers will be the defining segment this holiday seasonAccording to our survey, 31% of the consumers who shopped online in April were consumers who “rarely” shopped online. Nine percent were net new.In May of this year, Adobe Analytics data showed that new customers doubled the growth

49、 in revenue for e-commerce retailers.Labor Day and Memorial Day both showed new customers lifting revenue 50% more than the loyal segment.With the first six months attracting new customers online and holidays being overrepresented by the occasional online shoppers, we fully expect this holiday seaso

50、n to be dominated by the new and inexperienced online shoppers.The biggest downside to new shoppers is that they generally tend to make smaller orders.2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.David & Goliath vs. COVIDFor retailers, winning and losing in the COVID era is a question of both

51、 strategy and sheer size.COVID is changing growth for small vs. large retailersSmall businesses ($10M $50M in yearly revenue) see a larger boost to their revenue during the holidays (Nov Dec) than large ($1B+) retailers small retailers increase revenue by 107% while the large retailers see an 84% re

52、venue boost.*COVID-19 has been a boost to small businesses so far this year, with small retailers seeing 95%revenue boost since the announcement of the national state of emergency large retailers have only seen a 52% boost.* Comparing the same time period YoY, small businesses have experienced 56% g

53、rowth while large retailers had 50% growth.Large retailers continue to grow their holiday share, however, with holiday season YoY revenue growth for large retailers hitting 55%, and small retailers seeing only 8% growth.*Comparing daily sales in Nov Dec vs. Oct*Comparing Mar 15 Sep 30 vs. Jan 1 Mar

54、142020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Large retailers drive sales earlier during holidayThe boost difference for big days is most pronounced on Thanksgiving, with large retailers having more than twice as much of a boost* on that day than small retailers, indicating they are pushing

55、the deals earlier and capturing more of the sales. This will be even more pronounced as retailers work to drive sales earlier to avoid shipping delays.The big day boost difference is smallest on Small Business Saturday, indicating this dedicated day during the holiday season is gaining traction amon

56、g small retailers and consumers. The boost difference shrunk by 6 percentage points from 2018 to 2019, and we expect that trend to continue.51% of survey respondents plan to support small and local retailers on Small Business Saturday, and 38% plan to make a deliberate effort to shop at smaller reta

57、ilers throughout the holiday season.*Comparing daily sales in Nov Dec vs. Oct2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Good news for small businesses with new customer growthNew customers are incredibly important for both small and large businesses, with new customers making up 30% more of

58、 the share of total revenue for small businesses than for large businesses on average.Growth in the new customers drives small businesses as well, with holiday new customer revenue experiencing 22% growth for small businesses. Large businesses only see 2% growth from that group.Since April, new cust

59、omer revenue has grown by 65% for small businesses vs. 49% for large businesses, highlighting the need to continue to attract new customers.Small businesses see a much broader average order value spread though, with loyal customers coming in highest at$166 vs. new customers at $95. For large compani

60、es, that spread is loyal at $141 and new at $138.2020 Adobe. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.Election HangoverThe presidential election outcome is expected to have an impact on e-commerce.Election impactOnline sales will be impacted over the election as Americans await clarityDay after elect