20世纪20年代CTV和广告支持的流媒体

1、2 March 2020United StatesEQUITIESCTV ad spending, US & global 2023Addressable TV advertisingCTV and ad-supported streaming in the 2020s$13b$20b$29b$41b$55b$14bKey points We expect CTV ad spending to nearly double in the US to $12.5bn, and to more than triple globally to $41bn, by 2022. This primer o

2、n CTV and ad-supported streaming lays out the market for$7b$9b$11b$12bconnected devices, AVOD services, and the ad tech supporting these.2019E2020E2021E2022E2023EGlobal CTV ad spendUS CTV ad spendSource: eMarketer, TruOptik, Macquarie Capital (USA), February 2020Stocks mentionedStockRatingTPCMCSAOut

3、perform$52DISOutperform$160RAMPOutperform$60ROKUOutperform$170TTDOutperform$300Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, February 2020InsideTOC o 1-1 h z u HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 CTV and ad-supported streaming in the 2020s 2 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 The rise of addressable TV advertising 6 HYPERLINK

4、 l _TOC_250003 Market players connected devices 11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Market players ad-supported streaming services 16 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Market players ad tech enablers 25 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Data, attribution and measurement 31AnalystsMacquarie Capital (USA) Inc.Tim Nollen +1 212 23

5、1 0635 HYPERLINK mailto:tim.nollen tim.nollenSean Kumar +1 212 231 2037 HYPERLINK mailto:sean.kumar sean.kumar We see TTD, RAMP, ROKU, CMCSA and DIS all as winners in this space.Connected TV advertising could be a $41bn global market by 2022CTV devices and ad-supporting streaming services are prolif

6、erating and engendering an entirely new system for placing ads. We estimate 70% of US households own a connected TV device (smart TV or box/stick such as Roku), but only 9% of US TV ads are viewed on such devices. This gap will narrow: eMarketer expects US CTV ad spending to nearly double from $7bn

7、to $12.5bn by 2022. Globally, CTV penetration is lower, hence CTV ad growth could be even faster we estimate it tripling to $41bn.Definitions are in orderTerms get thrown around haphazardly in this industry. When talking about addressable TV advertising, we mean ads using some technology to target v

8、iewers on linear or OTT services; CTV advertising refers to ads viewed on connected devices. Both can be delivered programmatically (via automation) in exchanges or private marketplaces, but arent necessarily. Much of this is on ad-supported streaming services like Hulu (with 31m paying users), and

9、increasingly on free services like Pluto TV (with 22m free ones). These are as much live-streamed as on- demand; “AVOD” is a misnomer, but a convenient term to contrast ad-based streaming from SVOD. The growth is so strong that CTV ads have reversed from being supply-constrained just 1-2 years ago t

10、o being demand-constrained now.Whats to comeThis report lays out the landscape from the hardware to the various streaming services to what we call the ad tech enablers public and private companies representing the supply and demand sides, to the data and measurement providers behind them all. Conver

11、gence is developing as a theme: whether its media content/ distribution/ad tech (which we see at Comcast, AT&T and Disney) or tech platforms and services (Roku/DataXu). Such full stack operations create more walled gardens, especially as first-party data becomes more important in a privacy-conscious

12、 world.We reiterate OP ratings on several stocks in this broadening space The Trade Desk is reaping the benefits of CTV ad growth with its scale, agility and independence. Roku owns a great market position in both devices and ad services.LiveRamp plays a critical role in data that we think is undera

13、ppreciated. Comcast isbuilding an ecosystem of linear + digital content and distribution that should help it sustain stable growth. Disneys traditional role as content creator is now morphing into streaming services and the technology to run them.We model Rokus top-line growth CAGR at 40% the next t

14、hree years, and The Trade Desk and LiveRamp at 30%. We see Disneys CAGR at 10% as its DTC services take hold and Comcasts at 5% with help from broadband demand and its new Peacock service.Please refer to page 41 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website HYPERLINK /resear

15、ch/disclosures /research/disclosures.Automated TV ad buying is here“AVOD” as a consumer response to so muchSVODCTV and ad-supported streaming in the 2020sAutomated TV ad buying is hereWe first wrote on both programmatic ad buying and on dynamic ad insertion for TV in 2013. Yet it has taken until now

16、 for both to become new operating standards for TV advertising. This is partly due to the proliferation of internet-enabled connected TVs (smart TVs and connecting devices like Roku).And its partly due to the rise of streaming services, including ad-supported VOD, that bring an entirely new system f

17、or placing ads. Its also partly due to traditional TV operator and network consolidation, which has finally brought about more common standards and practices to an industry that was far too fragmented and undisciplined to adapt to the changes in consumer behavior.This report builds on our Global add

18、ressable advertising report from Sept 2018, particularly the second half of that report, which focused on the changes coming to TV advertising. A lot has happened even since then, and todays report picks up on the evolution, with less of a focus on how the traditional linear TV market is changing an

19、d more on the broader TV ad tech ecosystem that is developing as OTT viewership expands rapidly.Subscription fatigue spurs the rise of ad-supported streamingThe streaming wars are heating up, with Comcasts Peacock and AT&Ts HBO Max coming this spring to join Disney+, Apple+, and the raft of other ex

20、isting paid services from Netflix on down. “Subscription fatigue” will likely intensify from here: how many SVOD services can consumers pay for? especially in an economic downturn, which the streaming world has not experienced yet. This leads to consumers seeking free or low-cost streaming content o

21、n new OTT services like The Roku Channel and Pluto TV that are improving in quality of content offered, and on tiered or ad-supported services like Hulu, CBS All Access and ESPN+. And these come in a variety of business models that render addressable advertising more viable than the previous linear

22、TV ecosystem could ever engender. (Our discussion in this report does not focus on YouTube, which is a large portion of the total ad dollars spent on video and CTV and is included in the $7bn figure we refer to; we are more focused here on non-Google-owned opportunities in CTV media and ad serving).

23、Fig 1 Popular SVOD and AVOD servicesSVOD serviceSubsPricing/tiersAVOD serviceSubs/usersPricing/tiersNetflix global167mVaries by countryThe Roku Channel*56mfreeNetflix US & CAN68mUS: 3 tiers $9-16Hulu27m / 31m4 tiers from basic $6 to premium + live $61Amazon Prime Video45m$119/year or $13/monthTubi*2

24、5mfreeApple TV+34m$5; free first year for new Apple device usersPlutoTV*22mfreeDisney+29m$7; $13 for Disney+/ESPN+/Hulu bundleESPN+8m$5Vudu25m$1/rental - $25/purchaseXumo*6mfreeStarz OTT9m$9 in US, varies elsewhereCBS All Access5-6m$6 ad-supported, $10 ad-freeHBO Now8m$15NBCU Peacock*n/a3 tiers: fre

25、e, $5 ad-supported, $10 ad-freeShowtime5-6m$11HBO Maxn/a$15AMC Networks*2m4 services, $7 eachSource: Variety, LA Times, Hollywood Reporter, Deadline, Statista, Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), February 2020 *Monthly average users as reported by the companies, *includes Acorn TV, Shudder, Sunda

26、nce Now, and UMC, *Peacock is launching in April 2020, HBO Max with ads in 2021, see estimates below.The term “AVOD” is often used for these OTT services free or lower-cost content paid for with advertising. Its an easy acronym to contrast with “SVOD” subscription video on demand. But its a poor ter

27、m, as there are several flavors of ad-supported streaming services which can be live or on demand, and completely free or in tiered payment deals that trade off the level of ads and content with a subscription price.For consumers, these services offer more content at lower prices, including free.For

28、 these service providers therefore, the monetization potential comes down to their ability to sell ads some of which are premium and sold via traditional means, but an increasing amount of which are addressable to users devices, and create a lucrative opportunity to deliver more relevant and higher-

29、priced ads. This is good for:New forms of advertising areemerging70% of US households own a CTV deviceWe estimate CTV ad spending nearly doubling to $12.5bn by 2022 in the US, and more then tripling globally to $41bn Content owners and distributors who can monetize ad inventory at higher CPMs Advert

30、isers who get a much higher return on spending, with direct customer interactions Ad tech service providers (DSPs, SSPs and various enabling services) that create value in this transaction.And the advertising itself is changing. Streaming viewers have much less tolerance for ads than linear TV viewe

31、rs did in the past. Hence services like Hulu and Peacock are committing to lower ad loads (fewer ads per hour, and fewer per ad pod), with more options for consumers for example to accept a group of ads before the program in exchange for no ad interruptions during the show. Ads are finally becoming

32、interactive: viewers can choose ads, and can click through to websites and/or to purchase products. And the rise of automatic content recognition (ACR) on specific TV screens helps advertisers see exactly what ads were viewed on what devices, allowing them better frequency capping limiting the numbe

33、r of times an ad is shown to a particular device which in turn provides them incremental reach to serve ads to other screens instead.Theres a long runway aheadWe estimate 70% of US households own a connected TV device. Outside the US that figure is much smaller we estimate 30% overall.Fig 2 Estimati

34、ng CTV penetrationBroadband householdsCTV penetrationCTV householdsDomesticU.S.10171%72Total domestic10171%72IntlCanada1125%3Latin America11735%41Europe19325%48Australia835%3Asia44020%88Middle East & Africa855%4Total intl85422%187Total95527%259Source: Nielsen, eMarketer, Statista, Digital TV News, O

35、ztam, Asia Video Industry Association, Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), August 2019A commonly cited stat is that US consumers spend 30% or more of their time watching content on connected TVs, yet CTV ad spending is only 3% of the total. Therefore, CTV has to grow to correct this imbalance. We

36、 believe this is true:eMarketer expects CTV ad spending to nearly double in the US, from $7bn in 2019E to$12.5bn in 2022E.Globally, we see CTV ad spend more than tripling from $13bn in 2019E to $41bn by 2022E. We expect global growth to grow faster as CTV penetration is much lower internationally, a

37、s shown above.Fig 3 CTV ad spend, US vs. global$55b$41b$29b$13b$20b$11b$12b$14b$7b$9b2019E2020E2021E2022E2023EGlobal CTV ad spendUS CTV ad spendSource: eMarketer, TruOptik, Macquarie Capital (USA), February 2020CTV viewership share CTV ad shareMore allocation to digital TV ad inventory in this years

38、 upfrontsBut the comparison of time spent vs ad dollars allocated is not 1-1. There are reasons why OTT advertising is not all automated premium content still commands a reach premium that the sellers can control, and still be more comfortable selling, through personal negotiations, including packag

39、e deals between their linear TV and their OTT efforts. We expect this bias to erode over time but to hold on firmly in areas like live linear TV and some premium OTT, so CTV advertising as a percent of the total will not necessarily catch up to CTV usage.This years TV upfront market in the US is abo

40、ut to get underway, led by the digital networks in Feb/March, followed by the linear TV networks in May/June. Last year was the first time The Trade Desk participated in the upfronts, and we believe its role, and that of many other ad tech firms, will rise substantially this year.Traditional ratings

41、-based ad sales will remain the predominant means of selling up to 75% of the upcoming year, but network groups are much more willing to allocate inventory to programmatic sales, using alternative forms of measurement. These can include Nielsen and Comscore digital ad ratings but also newer secondar

42、y guarantees provided by services like LiveRamps Data+Math or Oracles Moat to report back on ad viewership.Last years upfront totalled $26bn in ad commitments, split between TV and digital at about 83%/17%. Digital refers to both online video such as YouTube and to digital components of TV ad sales

43、we expect this latter to again rise in 2020 after many years of double-digit growth. eMarketer estimates the TV upfront market to rise 2% to $21.6bn this year, and the digital upfronts to rise 16% to $5.1bn.Fig 4TV and digital video upfront markets, 2016-20E$ bn20162017201820192020ETV$18.6$19.7$20.8

44、$21.3$21.6% chg6%5%2%2%Digital video$2.1$2.9$3.7$4.4$5.1% chg37%27%20%16%Source: eMarketer, Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), February 2020CTV advertisings problem has reversed from being supply- constrained to now being demand- constrainedIn fact, TV network and AVOD services have made substan

45、tially more ad inventory available in the past 1-2 years, such that CTV advertisings problem has reversed from being supply- constrained to now being demand-constrained: there is a flood of inventory coming to market, in part due to so many ad-supported streaming services like Roku Channel, Pluto TV

46、 and more. The arrival of NBCUs Peacock in April will add to the amount of CTV advertising in the overall mix, but we understand Peacock has seen such demand for Peacock ads from its traditional advertiser and agency base that to the point above it will not need to give its premium inventory up to t

47、he programmatic machines.Convergence and M&Aare risingThe technology is here, and the politics andlogistics are progressing but there are still lots of bumps inthe roadNevertheless, NBCU for example is staking out its ground in digital TV advertising with the creation of One Platform this year, whic

48、h seeks to combine for the first time NBCUs linear and digital ad sales. One Platform allows advertisers to optimize (choose programming among linear and digital options), plan budgets, deliver ads and measure their performance across all NBCU properties. As Linda Yaccarino, head of NBCU ad sales, p

49、uts it, this gives advertisers “permission to change” their planning and buying processes. NBCU, and Comcast in general, is thus making an effort to reduce the friction that has been built into the TV ad buying system for a long time.Finally, convergence is becoming a big theme in this new addressab

50、le TV world. TV distributors have acquired media networks (Comcast/NBCU and AT&T/Time Warner), media networks have acquired ad tech businesses (NBCU/FreeWheel and AT&T/App Nexus to form Xandr within its content and distribution efforts, and Viacom/Pluto TV), streaming platforms have acquired ad tech

51、 as well (Roku bought DSP DataXu and Amazon bought the DSP from Sizmek), and ad tech services are crossing over (Tremor acquired Rhythm One and Unruly which provides it both a DSP and SSP, while Telaria and Rubicon merged to combine an SSP with an ad exchange). More head-scratching deals will probab

52、ly emerge in 2020.Eventually, full-stack operations will likely gain great power. Examples include what AT&T and Comcast are building, and what Roku is establishing with its hardware, advertising platform, Roku Channel content, and DataXu DSP. And while this means walled gardens will proliferate, it

53、 also behooves all to work openly with others most notably this has led to the creation of the TV industrys OpenAP and Project OAR alliances, but it also means for example Xandrs Community or Roku / DaxtaXus intention to retain independent DSP activities.So is 2020 finally the inflection point for a

54、ddressable TV advertising?Yes as was 2018 and 2019! 2018 saw the first CTV programmatic ad buying begin The Trade Desk famously reported a 2,100% increase in its CTV ad growth in Q1 18, from a very low base. In 2019 we heard advertisers talk of moving from experimenting with targeted TV buys to more

55、 actively incorporating them into spending plans, and The Trade Desk grew 137%. Now in 2020, we see a flood of ad inventory coming to CTV, and hence a market that is taking off; The Trade Desk expects its CTV ad revenues to double this year.We have often thought of the advanced TV advertising effort

56、 as being a factor of three things: technology, politics and logistics. The technology is not the problem targetability and measurement have been here for some time already. But the politics amongst so many competing companies, and the logistics of implementing these have been stumbling blocks until

57、 now, with completely new business models in ad-supported streaming, and with help from the traditional TV industrys formation of consortia like Open AP and Project OAR.But there are still lots of bumps in the road.Large companies that are establishing their own content/distribution/tech solutions w

58、ont necessarily always work well with others, and a range of different standards will continue to render the ad buying process complicated this is why we think the role of a DSP like The Trade Desk remains crucial to the ad buying complex.Measurement of these different systems is in many ways gettin

59、g harder, not easier attribution of an ads effectiveness, and ways to tie together all this information, remain fraught with complexity.Data privacy is becoming a major issue, both in terms of regulation like GDPR and CCPA, and in terms of third-party cookies not so much an issue for CTV, but for on

60、line advertising in general. We discussed this at length in our report last month Ad tech 2020 Assessing privacy regulation & cookie changes. In fact, major changes in online advertising could turn into a positive for TV advertising, but the commercial application of data for these purposes is still