中资美元债市场上半年回顾及下半年展望

1、64%6%-8%26%13%-0.2%22%0.04%7%5%5%5%-1%10%6%-0.6%-0.15-0.10-0.050.000.050.100.150.200.250.30-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.2200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 2021YTD71001201401601802002200.51.01.52.02.53.021-0121-0221-0321-0421-0521-06%9998.59897.597101100.510099.521-0121-

2、0221-0321-0421-0521-068101.5101100.510099.59998.59897.59710221-0121-0221-0321-0421-0521-065507509501150465879101121-0121-0221-0321-0421-0521-06bp%9102101100999897969521-0121-0221-0321-0421-0521-06101125020015010050030040035021-0121-0221-0321-0421-0521-061224总回报率（total return）总回报率（total return）美债利率上行

3、期间美国十年期国债上 行幅度(bp)中资美元债中资美元债- 投资级中资美元债- 高收益地产美元债地产美元债- 投资级地产美元债-高 收益2013/5/12013/12/31138-2.4%-5.0%2.0%1.1%-5.6%3.0%2016/7/52016/12/16123-1.3%-2.1%3.1%0.9%-1.6%2.5%2017/9/72018/10/10117-1.8%-1.5%-1.8%-1.6%-1.4%-1.6%25260123456724681012141618 20-0120-0320-0520-0720-0920-1121-0121-0321-05%20%-1.50-1.0

4、-0.50.00.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5 5.020-01 20-03 20-05 20-07 20-09 20-11 21-01 21-03 21-05% 1.0%2760%55%50%45%65%70%40%35%07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1 17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1 加权平均资产负债率资产负债率同比上升占比加权平均债务资本比债务资本比同比上升占比40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%1.00.90.80.70.60.50.40.31.107Q1 08Q1

5、 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1 17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1 21Q129 货币资金/短期债务(左)货币资金/短期债务同比下降占比(左) 货币资金/短期债务低于30%占比(右)300246810121.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.0123456年%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.05.86.06.26.46.66.87.07.27.47.6123456年%311000090008000700060005000400030002000100003233-10%0%10%20%40%30

6、%50%60%70%80% 营业收入同比（左）销售毛利率（右）-50%0%50%100%150%30%200% 营业利润同比利润总额同比净利润同比-15000-10000-50000500010000150002000007Q1 09Q1 11Q1 13Q1 15Q1 17Q1 19Q1 21Q1亿元自由现金流简单加总筹资现金流简单加总0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%07Q109Q111Q113Q115Q117Q119Q121Q1 货币资金/短期债务（左）货币资金/短期债务同比下降占比（左） 货币资金/短期债

7、务低于30%占比（右）34剔除预收的资产负债率2019年2020年净负债率2019年2020年现金短债比2019年2020年2019年红线分档2020年 变化剔除预收的资产负债率2019年2020年净负债率2019年2020年现金短债比2019 年 2020 年2019年红线分档2020年 变化华远80.8%80.2%230.6%205.7%0.520.53红红无变动美置81.1%77.6%89.0%79.2%2.952.19黄黄无变动蓝光70.7%74.6%79.2%106.8%1.260.85黄红恶化2档禹洲79.1%77.9%70.2%85.8%2.331.83黄黄无变动绿地82.8%8

8、4.3%156.7%138.3%0.750.96红红无变动合景80.8%75.1%75.3%61.8%2.391.76黄黄无变动恒大82.7%83.4%161.1%152.9%0.600.54红红无变动时代74.4%78.6%67.2%68.4%1.571.99黄黄无变动富力79.5%76.7%198.9%130.2%0.620.63红红无变动越秀71.4%70.5%74.0%47.5%4.232.25黄黄无变动金融街73.5%74.4%188.9%175.3%0.701.18红橙好转1档建业86.1%85.5%9.8%14.1%2.361.91黄黄无变动珠江实业81.7%87.5%167.1

9、%141.0%2.081.52橙橙无变动德信73.0%74.2%68.7%60.4%1.391.79黄黄无变动中交房地产82.5%83.4%85.3%213.8%1.751.25黄橙恶化1档花样年73.0%72.4%73.0%74.9%2.021.57黄黄无变动香江68.6%71.3%62.6%72.8%0.890.78黄橙恶化1档当代82.0%82.0%82.7%95.7%1.201.44黄黄无变动首置74.6%74.7%156.3%126.3%1.101.14橙橙无变动朗诗73.3%77.5%52.8%23.7%1.486.13黄黄无变动万科76.5%71.7%34.8%34.3%1.72

10、1.40黄黄无变动力高79.5%78.1%25.3%48.4%1.182.06黄黄无变动阳光城77.6%79.1%138.2%93.2%1.251.53橙黄好转1档保利67.4%69.9%56.9%68.5%2.101.51绿绿无变动金科74.8%70.6%120.2%83.9%1.101.10橙黄好转1档金地67.2%69.4%57.7%66.8%1.251.07绿绿无变动中粮70.8%71.8%97.7%93.7%1.641.46黄黄无变动信达69.5%69.5%90.1%68.1%1.061.11绿绿无变动北辰71.0%71.1%93.9%96.0%1.281.36黄黄无变动招商局56.

11、3%59.1%29.7%29.2%1.351.49绿绿无变动冠城大通58.5%59.7%62.6%69.4%0.310.30黄黄无变动建发69.2%69.5%65.9%53.8%1.621.98绿绿无变动南国置业78.1%75.0%214.5%83.6%0.671.51红黄好转2档中华企业62.5%60.1%19.6%18.6%7.222.78绿绿无变动红美58.8%60.2%58.8%70.9%0.530.40黄黄无变动招商积余49.8%47.0%19.6%10.0%4.451.16绿绿无变动荣安68.3%75.6%28.5%90.9%1.601.18绿黄恶化1档国贸35.1%33.0%19

12、.2%10.0%NA108.12绿绿无变动迪马67.3%69.1%60.9%62.6%0.760.77黄黄无变动世茂70.6%68.5%57.3%50.3%1.621.87黄绿好转1档新城76.5%75.5%25.6%57.1%1.761.50黄黄无变动华润56.4%59.7%31.4%29.5%3.012.52绿绿无变动华侨城69.3%70.0%84.5%79.8%1.071.77绿黄恶化1档龙湖66.5%66.9%51.0%46.5%4.384.24绿绿无变动碧桂园82.7%80.5%46.4%55.6%2.301.91黄黄无变动金茂67.2%67.9%92.2%40.2%0.802.03

13、黄绿好转1档融创84.2%78.7%172.3%96.1%0.931.45红黄好转2档融信73.2%69.9%67.7%82.7%1.881.20黄绿好转1档绿城73.5%71.9%92.7%63.8%0.942.01橙黄好转1档龙光76.1%69.8%30.3%53.8%3.132.43黄绿好转1档旭辉75.0%72.5%68.5%64.0%2.732.74黄黄无变动远洋69.7%67.9%76.7%54.8%3.611.69绿绿无变动正荣76.2%76.6%75.3%64.7%1.762.20黄黄无变动中骏73.5%68.7%60.0%62.3%1.941.60黄绿好转1档佳兆业75.9%

14、70.1%144.0%96.1%1.162.04橙黄好转1档金辉76.9%69.0%166.8%75.3%0.701.38红绿好转3档雅居乐72.7%72.3%82.8%61.0%1.011.32黄黄无变动佳源71.7%67.8%78.4%60.0%1.631.54黄绿好转1档奥园81.8%78.9%111.5%82.7%1.301.34橙黄好转1档弘阳74.4%69.4%70.4%50.3%1.361.62黄绿好转1档新力76.0%73.2%67.0%63.6%1.431.24黄黄无变动宝龙72.2%69.9%81.1%74.0%1.551.37黄绿好转1档发行人简称2019/12/3120

15、20/12/312019/12/312020/12/312019/12/312020/12/31恒大地产1,649.672,057.037,239.367,150.3522.79%28.77%绿地集团111.57255.793,079.143,884.163.62%6.59%融创地产111.85225.902,715.042,601.864.12%8.68%碧桂园地产128.02193.091,916.291,620.086.68%11.92%保利集团116.99181.173,755.304,608.233.12%3.93%华润置地127.78165.63307.78492.6241.52%

16、33.62%建发集团130.61150.551,274.111,482.0910.25%10.16%建发股份130.57150.50919.451,160.3814.20%12.97%保利地产78.28149.192,935.573,637.762.67%4.10%保利南方集团78.28149.192,783.773,440.962.81%4.34%华夏幸福76.51144.561,914.382,258.434.00%6.40%华夏控股76.51144.562,094.262,579.513.65%5.60%中南建设109.99107.72829.791,026.2313.26%10.50%

17、荣盛发展40.8881.05700.49812.045.84%9.98%新城控股42.6867.85840.531,160.845.08%5.85%阳光集团41.7366.811,392.681,458.873.00%4.58%蓝光发展36.1459.77645.21861.525.60%6.94%金科股份75.0256.951,069.891,119.047.01%5.09%阳光城30.7456.331,194.951,134.482.57%4.97%世茂建设29.3251.36218.79452.3713.40%11.35%美的置业55.2848.13598.67628.989.23%7.

18、65%建业住宅集团39.7240.60149.91149.4126.49%27.17%富力地产23.7838.872,236.141,889.401.06%2.06%北京城建集团29.7536.771,350.641,527.772.20%2.41%金茂投资23.9628.32606.11603.113.95%4.70%中天金融35.6525.88429.36433.548.30%5.97%俊发集团20.3121.59462.56463.024.39%4.66%正荣地产12.1720.58428.71464.532.84%4.43%宏光正商18.5218.7765.0840.7728.46%4

19、6.04%金隅集团19.7617.791,517.991,464.341.30%1.22%海伦堡地产12.3217.26365.43430.433.37%4.01%珠江投资1.7014.37838.69614.850.20%2.34%世茂股份12.5313.71236.02248.845.31%5.51%时代控股12.2313.39307.08392.443.98%3.41%花样年集团9.699.68176.59171.425.49%5.65%迪马股份9.587.99164.31192.765.83%4.15%广州合景5.556.90405.38414.551.37%1.66%中骏6.456.

20、62193.05253.553.34%2.61%奥园集团7.966.48623.65749.271.28%0.86%新湖中宝4.326.42728.75570.710.59%1.13%万科9.416.072,614.183,157.800.36%0.19%五矿地产0.646.00120.73107.850.53%5.56%当代节能置业3.235.2198.51124.973.28%4.17%35应付票据（亿元）总债务（考虑票据和永续，亿元）应付票据占比0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01000200030004000500060007000江 浙 湖 四 山 重 安 江 湖

21、 天 北 河 福 广 云 贵 陕 广 上 山 吉 河 新 甘 辽 青 内 黑 西 海 宁 苏 江 南 川 东 庆 徽 西 北 津 京 南 建 东 南 州 西 西 海 西 林 北 疆 肃 宁 海 蒙 龙 藏 南 夏古 江8000亿元2022年到期量2022年进入回售期规模 占存量债券余额比例40国资委时间内容41等待年报公布和方案出台华融波动继续但整体外溢效应减弱4月中旬市场担忧提升，外溢效应明显等待年报公布及后续方案波动持续但外溢效应 边际减弱不确定性抬升外溢效应显现风险爆发初期4月初年报推迟发布引发风险暴露42单位：亿元信达东方长城2020年金额占比金额占比金额占比不良资产处置净收益354.0849.9%219.8935.7%148.8046.6%银行业务利息净收入89.5912.6%55.819.1%31.069.7%手续费及佣金净收入31.854.5%36.585.9%-0.40(0.1%)保费净收入-3.95(0.6%)94.3815.3%6.822.1%投资收益193.9227.3%222.2336.1%72.3922.6%公允价值变动收益-20.55(2.9%)-33.40(5.4%)43.3413.6%产品销售净收入69.