面临机遇和挑战的中国奶业

1、 罗伯特 华生 Robert WatsonChallenges and Opportunities facing the Chinese Dairy IndustryOpportunities Increasing consumer demand for dairy products.Challenges1) Profitability of Dairy Farminga) Low production per cow,b) High feed costs,c) Small farm size,d) Low milk Price,e) Disease control and preventio

2、n.2) Milk Qualitya) Continued increase in consumptionb) Threat of imported powder.Milk consumption per person per year - ChinaYear Per capita in urban area (Kg) Per capita in rural area (Kg) Per capita in China (Kg) 1995 16.0 0.64 5.1 1996 16.0 0.8 5.4 1997 14.7 0.95 5.4 1998 15.5 0.93 5.8 1999 17.3

3、 0.96 6.7 2000 19.8 1.06 7.8 2001 22.1 1.2 9.1 2002 28.4 1.19 11.8 2003 34.5 1.7 15.1 Farming Systems 奶牛场生产体系你也可以轻松拥有它 Milk Production (T/cow/year) _ HeilongjiangSurvey of 24 Dairy Enterprises representing 680,000 cows - HeilongjiangHigh feed costsLow quality forageCompensate with concentrate feedin

4、gIncreased vulnerability to price fluxuationsIntensive dairy production puts emphasis on high quality forage productionMore education required1970/712001/02%变化农场数12219418673-85%母牛数（千头）23901137-52%牛场产奶量 （百万升）77057600-1%每个牛场的产奶量 （升）63100408200+545%牛场平均母牛数2061+205%Dairy Farming in CanadaYear19971998200

5、020012002Milk Price (RMB)3.64 3.56 3.61 3.69 3.84 Source: Haitong Security Institute (2004)Raw Milk Prices Canada (RMB)Raw Milk Prices China (RMB)Raw Milk Procurement Prices, 1998Source: FAO Dairy Outlook, June 1998Disease Control and PreventionAnimal health system inadequateFarmers do not have acce

6、ss to services to protect their investmentEpidemic and production diseases threaten the dairy industryVeterinary education is criticalMilk Quality StandardsTraditionally focused on fat, protein and bacteria levels,Enforcement left to the processorZero tolerance for antibiotic residue is criticalNet

7、import of dairy products, raw milk equivalence, 1995-2004 (Unit: Million Ton) Source: China Dairy Yearbook (2004); Annual Duty Reduction of Dairy Products after WTO Accession Unit of duty: % Code of dairy products Duty upon WTO entry 2002 2003 2004 2005 Raw milk 04011000 21 19 17 15 04012000 21 19 1

8、7 15 04013000 21 19 17 15 Milk powder 04021000 15 13.8 12.5 11.3 10 04022100 20 17.5 15 12.5 10 04022900 20 17.5 15 12.5 10 04029100 36.7 30 23.3 15 10 04029900 36.7 30 23.3 15 10 Yoghourt 04031000 34 26 18 10 04039000 38 32 26 20 Whey 04049000 38 32 26 20 Butter 04051000 36.7 30 23.3 15 10 04052000

9、 36.7 30 23.3 15 10 04059000 36.7 30 23.3 15 10 Cheese 04061000 34.8 27.2 19.6 12 04062000 34.8 27.2 19.6 12 04063000 34.8 27.2 19.6 12 04064000 36 29 22 15 04069000 34.8 27.2 19.6 12Source of data: MOFTEC ConclusionsThe domestic consumption of milk is expected to continue to increase creating the o

10、pportunity of the strengthening of the Chinese dairy production sector, Low milk production per cow, the accepted norm under extensive livestock agriculture, will result in unacceptably low farm profitability in an intensive agriculture production system, Genetic improvement systems need to be stren

11、gthened to prevent the continued erosion in genetic quality in China Feeding management must focus on the production of high quality forages to minimize the reliance on concentrate feeding education is the keyGrowth in farm size should be encouraged to lead to more stability in the dairy production system and improvements the milk qualityDisease treatment and prevention systems need to be strengthened to increase access to veterinary services education is the keyEnforcement of milk quality standards is critical to the continued growth in consumer demand for dairy products zero toler