当前美股盈利的八个特征

1、Hia i: ufJxHHH&eTnzafsu, aiHia 2: as&ss. ein. Gnn-. asii. a&4.003.00100-10040%30%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%美国制造业各行业产能利用率：疫情前水平（2019年12月） 最新水平历史平均住宅投资 消费：服务固定资产投资：设备消费：商品固定资产投资：设施30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 S

2、ep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Aug-18 Jan-19 Jun-19 Nov-19 Apr-20 Sep-20-25% （十亿美元）500450400350300250200150100美国私人非住宅设备投资：信息处理设备 工业设备 交运设备 其他设备65%45%25%5%-15%-35%标普500指数EPS同比增速标普500EPS环比增速（右轴）59.5%Factset一致预期6.4%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-

3、06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20Jan-2150-55%1Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q21E3Q21E4Q21E1Q22E2Q22E-30% CICCf41:L*?zfXIfv.9; 84.,.74%-59%-109%-14%6%197%-41%105%94%-91%-163%66%323

4、%2264%-19%-19%76%85%-0%-66%24%26%77%4%-1%50%72%-122%-247%-178%N/A-166%N/A68%-1%-22%8%59%9%-1%52%67%-22%54%117%82%149%12%56%44%77%5%-9%5%5%10%2%2%8%42%-8%-28%-10%2%-2%Q-11%10%84%9%-8%5%2%14%0%2%9%100%6%-0%14%14%7%Q11%9%4%49%-52%-149%-98%101%-17%-104%N/A97%-43%-53%18%150%5%-22%42%99%-60%-75%-19%7%243%

5、4%-35%59%99%-36%-22%10%40%174%2%-7%38%91%-9%-37%6%18%25%14%-5%15%88%-10%-42%-39%-15%20%24%-29%22%86%4%7%9%13%36%8%8%18%91%2%22%5%5%40%16%10%15%81%5%-6%14%21%32%3%7%20%86%-35%-87%-54%-38%-9%-53%81%86%-26%-52%-25%-13%17%-11%-28%38%74%1%-12%16%20%22%0%3%14%91%-70%-155%-101%-225%Q2%-119%N/A80%7%4%17%45%

6、6%30%84%12%-5%10%8%25%13%7%21%86%-3%4%27%101%10%44%59%11%-30%6%21%27%-16%1%30%69%-17%-30%27%74%-13%-7%60%72%-0%-14%5%38%9%-2%34%68%-1%-22%8%59%9%-1%52%100%2%-1%-2%4%8%-4%-3%95%40%6%3%-7%-23%Q13%2%3%.t97%-42.8%-53.4%-6.7%18.2%150.4%5%-22%42%78%-6.2%-30.1%-10.0%2.1%34.5%2%-11%35%76%-16%-50%-19%-1%50%-

7、20%53%8s%8%2%s%z%16%z%4%11%79%-5%-26%5%34%3%-8%32%n1Q21qQ0?: 1Q2I4Q20 (i*)(pps)400%2,0001,5001,00063%53%43%33%23% L3% 3%17.l 0Zo 13.4 0Zo 12.2 0Zo403024:-% 500eM*J#%#25: #12#, #/, 90%G%D,ER#W fld)Dfi 7%iW:ER#EmmAfii,W&1%fi%804030cc3at&:JAA1ffz1t9Bla2e: Ms.ata!Aa*XI: iSBa. 9,6Ma. 3u&aR6RB1*8 e 500e*.

8、*.4074%4.0%1.8%-21.5%2.6%11.4%15.7%Q6%-1%22%494%-8.7%-49.3%4.2%10.6%11.8%Q-3%17%1385%5.0%1.8%4.7%10.2%17.i%5%0%20%14T2%5.3%-13.4%-69.3%-56.2%-50.4%-38.6%p6%-48%30%1468%16.2%11.2%-6.8%3.8%7.6%16.7%19%2%21%967%16.9%19.8%26.3%28.8%35.8%37.0%Q16%28%24%2477%4.1%3.9%3.0%5.5%7.1%Q3%2%6%442%2.8%4.3%0.2%4.4%

9、5.6%6.3%Q2%4%5%1484%5.5%3.4%-6.0%4.4%9.1%Q4%0%7%6100%5.2%4.1%6.1%8.3%4.5%4%5%5%1849%-6.4%-9.3%-50.9%-3T.6%-33.6%2.7%p4%-35%29%6097%7.4%0.2%0.7%1.5%10.9%Q4%0%3%IN99%3.2%0.1%3.0%3.4%Q3%-0%2499%12.0%2.6%4.1%3.6%6.6%26.3%Q3%4%11%1991%9.5%-19%-5.4%l7/8.3%p5%-1%-1%2T88%4.5%6.0%6.3%1.1%Q5%3%5%5386%12.3%9.9

10、%3.1%10.4%12.3%9.8%14%9%9%3491%14.8%11.0%4.0%10.1%11.3%7.6%Q17%9%7%1981%1.1%4.1%1.3%11.6%17.1%21.8%1%6%19%6286%-1.4%Q14%3986%6.3%0.7%Q-4%-12%11%9T4%4.5%5.4%-6.0%1.1%0.3%Q-0%-0%5%1491%0.7%-39.0%-28.2%-6.2%Q2%-23%22%5380%6.8%6.0%5.8%3.2%11.8%22.1%3%6%15%2684%10.1%8.9%2.7%2.8%4.7%9.1%Q9%4%11%1386%6.6%0

11、.2%7.4%17.2%41.8%Q0%7%20%1459%0.5%9.9%11.6%11.0%16.9%19.1%12%16%2269%-1.9%-4.5%1.9%14.5%Q-3%-7%22%1872%9.0%5.0%-3.7%4.0%7.3%14.8%Q12%2%14%1468%16.2%11.2%6.8%3.8%i.6%16.i%19%2%21%4100%-0.5%-3.2%0.7%4.4%6.9%12.0%Q3%2%4%2595%-0.0%-5.8%-5.8%-3.6%16.3%Q1%-5%7%6097%7.4%0.2%0.7%1.5%10.9%Q4%0%3%23676%2.7%1.

12、6%11.4%Q4%18%10685%i.i%5.i%0.8%6.7%8.8%9.8%9%5%8%32479%5.3%2.9%-7.3%1.3%6.3%10.9%Q6%1%13%jia 2s: tfitfi&Ta, G.8fJfx. mit. wa.$xjia 3s: r.8fx.uiRlIs.RRP!)3Taelx;3020%10%4.040RBa satsft; kai BAaasaiaatfrceeaesHaGsobs#, Pui #33: /-L%L #LL%I,500#34:- %500e# L#(LI LR9L*t%*!,4BEW W* ?4efiBB) K*:fiTW,j-8%: Ti 500IB ( C J?7 9()1)-J#:%1BV0*4%3%15%10% 612Blave:R i26Jou1,as IBMssBlave:T#1, al