量化历史班版老师land equalization,social mobility and the rise of civil service exam system

1、Land Equalization, Social Mobility, and the Rise of Civil Service Exam SystemQian Dai School of Economics and Management, Wuhan UniversityHanhui GuanSchool of Economics, Peking UniversityVery Preliminary29 May 2015 11.IntroductionWhy research the Civil Service Exam SystemBureaucracy system is the fo

2、undation of political institution, and the evolution of political institution can be viewed as the transformation of bureaucracy system.It is a feasible approach to research political institution from the perspective of bureaucracy system, and there may be some kinds of economic factor determining t

3、he evolution of both bureaucracy system and political institution. 21.Introduction The position of the Civil Service Exam System in world and Chinese historyThe earliest Official Selection System in the world.Foundation of Civil Servant System of western countries (Ssu-yu Teng,1943;Y.Z.Chang,1942).T

4、he role of alleviating class antagonism made Chinese society e an ultra-stable structure in subsequent one thousand years（Jin and Liu, 2011） 31.Introduction Literature (1) Political institution and economic development Acemoglu and Robinson (2000,2006): political elites may block technological and i

5、nstitutional development, because of a “political replacement effect.” Innovations often erode elites incumbency advantage, increasing the likelihood that they will be replaced. Fearing replacement, political elites are unwilling to initiate change and may even block economic development.41.Introduc

6、tion Acemoglu and Robinson (2000,2001): “Why Did the West Extend the Franchise ?” , “ A theory of political transitions”.Political reforms can be viewed as strategic decisions by the political elite to prevent widespread social unrest and revolution.51.Introduction (2) Social structure, economic dev

7、elopment, and political regimes transition Acemoglu, Hassan and Robinson (2011) :Holocaust and economic development in Russia .Lasting impact of the Holocaust may be attributable to a permanent change it induced in the social structure across different regions of Russia.61.IntroductionDavis, D. R. a

8、nd D. E. Weinstein(2008):the Allied bombing of Japanese cities and industries in World War II, 114 Japanese cities in eight manufacturing industries. Miguel, E. and G. Roland(2011):U.S. bombing does not have negative impacts on local poverty rates, consumption levels, infrastructure, literacy or pop

9、ulation density through 2002 in Vietnam. 71.IntroductionBourguignon and Verdier (2000) ：political leaders in France used publice ducation to promote social mobility and create a middle class with less inclination towards revolution in late 19 th century.Bai and Jia（2014）：The Impact of the Abolition

10、of Chinas Civil Service Exam System on the overturn of Qing dynasty.Puga and Trefler(2014): In medieval Venice, a small group of particularly wealthy merchants blocked political and economic competition，which led to political closure, extreme inequality, and social stratification.81.IntroductionMoti

11、vationMost researchers emphasized the influence of political institution on economic development, but economists pay little attention to how economic factors drove political institution transformation.This paper seeks for the economic driving force behind a great political institutions transformatio

12、n in Chinese history( from Hereditary System to Civil Service Exam System) .91.IntroductionThe findingThe adoption of the Land Equalization policy could explain the rise of Civil Service Exam System in Tang China. the long-term enforcement of Land Equalization policy impaired economic base of aristo

13、crat groups as well as their monopoly political power social structure became more horizontal than in the aristocrat and hereditary system the Civil Service Exam System became main stream of the Bureaucracy System. 101.IntroductionThe contributionShed new light on the relationship between economic d

14、evelopment and political institution evolution. Most economics literature: political institution economic developmentOur paper: economic force the change of social structure political institution transformation111.IntroductionDespite many cases and conjectures, the link between social mobility and p

15、olitical institution transitions has not been established empirically.Through revealing the causal relationship between Land Equalization and bureaucracy system combining with the change of social structure, this paper may enrich the empirical literature in this field.122.Historical Background13The

16、Ratio of Aristocrat Background Officials in Total Bureaucrats (1 century B.C.13 Century A.D.)2.Historical Background14The Ratio of Aristocrat Background Officials in Total High-Ranking Bureaucrats (1 Century B.C.13 Century A.D.)2.Historical Background The Ways of ing an official in the early and lat

17、e Tang dynasty152.Historical BackgroundThe Ways of ing an High-Ranking official in the early and late Tang dynasty162.Historical BackgroundThe initial purpose of the “Land Equalization Policy” in the Northern Wei DynastyIncreases government tax revenue by enlarging tax base，support and protect benef

18、its of smallholder as well as restrict the aristocrats annexation of land and control too many peasants. Consolidate the power of the Emperor by weakening the noble family. Central government reallocates land resource to all household including both officials and populace, and set the upper limit fo

19、r officials according to their rank.172.Historical BackgroundThe “Land Equalization Policy” in the Tang Dynasty18485534535577581624780618Northern WeiWestern Wei & Northern ZhouEastern Wei & Northern QiSui dynastyTang dynasty3.Data and Variables3.1 Individual-level Official InformationFirst-hand biog

20、raphies in the Old Book of Tang History and the New Book of Tang History.Among all the 2894 observations, 2576 came from the Old Book of Tang History, and 318 were included in the New Book of Tang History.193.Data and VariablesInformation List About Officialsnamethe number of officials in ones famil

21、yfamily financial conditionthe social status of ones father and grandfatherdates of birth and deaththe time span in which one live203.Data and Variablesbirth place (“state” in Tang Territory), whether being a noble or notthe way of ing an official (military contribution ,imperial examination; mendat

22、ion, appointment, shelter, surrender, and others)whether being knighted or not the rank of post213.Data and Variables3.2 Geographic Information related to the strength of land Equalization Policyzone0 : the nonagricultural areazone1: the Southern Chinazone2 :Guanlong and Hetao Plain zone3: North Chi

23、na Plainstrength :zone0 zone1 zone2 780,then year=780.family0,2910% 0 50% 075% 390% 625% 0Political power of family measured by total official number of father generation and forefather generation.place138Birth place，measured by state in Tang dynastygeneration0,549 0643 1512 2636 3379 4325 5Generati

24、on indicator writtien in historical literature, the 0th generation: all Generation above forefather，the 1th generation: forefather，the 2th generation: father， the 3th generation:oneself，the 4th generation :son and dughter.the 5th generation: grandson, granddaughter, and all generation after grandson

25、, granddaughteraristocrat0,11772 0 772 1aristocrat=0；aristocrat=1，means being aristocrat, imperial clan, queen clan, oneself, Father, forefather being high rank official。status0,11080 0 1464 1Fathers social class，status=1 means Father being an official, status=0 means father not being an official.ab

26、ility0,1 unknownBeing an official by ability. ability=1 means ing an official by Military or Contribution, Imperial Examination; ability=0 means ing an official by mendation, Investigation, Appointment, Shelter, Surrendering, and Others,position0,311 Unknown222 1435 21866 3Official rank. 4 class: un

27、known, low rank, middle rank, high rank. high rank: being responsible for Emperor directly, middle rank；being responsible for Emperor through higher rank，low rank: the head of a county (Lai Ruihe，2008)。peerage0,11929 0607 1Knight(Duke, Marquis,Count,Viscount, Baron)，peerage=0 means not being knighte

28、d，peerage=1 means being knightedwar0,12Warfare number 25 year before a year in a area254. The Impact of the “Land Equalization Policy”4.1 The baseline regressionPr(ability=1)=(const+z*zonezlandequal+z*zonez +X*i)2627Pr(ability=1)（1）（2）（3）（4）（5）（6）（7）（8）zone1 0.129*0.131*0.128*0.126*0.128*0.130*0.172

29、*0.170*landequal （0.0452）（0.0455）（0.0456）（0.0456）（0.0457）（0.04612）（0.0473）（0.0474）zone2 0.197*0.195*0.194*0.196*0.199*0.209*0.249*0.251*landequal （0.0280）（0.0283）（0.0283）（0.0285）（0.0285）（0.0287）（0.0298）（0.0309）zone3 0.265*0.271*0.268*0.274*0.276*0.278*0.314*0.306*landequal （0.0321）（0.0323）（0.0323）（0

30、.0325）（0.0326）（0.0328）（0.0338）（0.0343）distance -0.000347* -0.000365* -0.000364* 0.000358* -0.000370* -0.000396* -0.000418* -0.000333* （0.000101）（0.000102）（0.000102）（0.000102）（0.000102）（0.000103）（0.000104）（0.000121）aristocrat-0.348*-0.383*-0.380*-0.307*-0.362*-0.363*-0.364*（0.0455）（0.0456）（0.0456）（0.

31、0457）（0.04612）（0.0473）（0.0474）familly0.008920.0163*0.01440.01590.01450.0169*（0.00914）（0.00964）（0.00970）（0.00979）（0.00979）（0.00998）status-0.138*0.04260.01990.02720.145（0.0608）（0.114）（0.115）（0.115）（0.120）wealth -0.219*-0.211*-0.221*-0.293*（0.117）（0.117）（0.118）（0.123）war0.0127（0.0166）Zone dummyyesyesye

32、syesyesyesyesyesBase zone zone0zone0zone0zone0zone0zone0zone0zone0psudo R2 0.0560.0660.0660.0680.0690.0840.0970.100N 250825082508250825082504250423524. The Impact of the “Land Equalization Policy”4.2 Robustness Control for systemic differences among different zones.2829Pr(ability=1)（1）（2）（3）（4）（5）（6

33、）zone1 0.122*0.0303landequal （0.0452）（0.0521）zone2 0.203*0.123*0.248*0.0933*0.252*0.0989*landequal （0.0280）（0.0283）（0.0283）（0.0285）（0.0285）（0.0287）zone3 0.256*0.148*0.295*0.117*0.316*0.134*landequal （0.0321）（0.0323）（0.0323）（0.0325）（0.0326）（0.0328）distance -0.000365* -0.000358* -0.000396* （0.000102）（

34、0.000102）（0.000103）trend0.00402* 0.00482* 0.00474* （0.000669）（0.000729）（0.000831）aristocrat-0.249*-0.277*-0.328*-0.328*-0.318*-0.295*（0.0763）（0.0785）（0.0836）（0.0456）（0.0457）（0.04612）familly0.008920.0163*0.01440.0159（0.00914）（0.00964）（0.00970）（0.00979）status0.227*0.1860.1020.05200.1730.130（0.117）（0.1

35、20）（0.129）（0.131）（0.143）（0.46）wealth -0.306*-0.3381*-0.200*-0.231*-0.258*-0.307*（0.122）（0.125）（0.136）（0.139）（0.153）（0.157）war0.0160-0.0007310.0143-0.003630.0127-0.0015940.01660.01700.01680.01720.01840.0188zone1-31-32-32-3Northern EconomicZoneZone dummyyesyesyesyesyesyesBase zone zone0zone0zone1zone1

36、zone1zone1psudo R2 0.06680.1140.09960.1230.1020.124N 2320231320162013155915564. The Impact of the “Land Equalization Policy” (Causality)4.3 IV Estimates IV 1: whether the zone experienced Land Equalization or not in the Previous Dynasties （Northern-Southern Dynasties ）.IV2: the distance from the cap

37、ital city of Northern-Southern Dynasties (420-589) to that of Northern Wei, Luoyang.304. The Impact of the “Land Equalization Policy” (Instrumental Variables)Region where ones birthplace was locatedthe Southern and Northern Dynastiescapital cityIV1: whether the Land Equalization Policy was implement

38、ed in previous DynastyIV2: distance between the capital city of the previous dynasties and that of Northern WeiZone 1 (Southern China)Song, Qi, Liang and Chen DynastiesJiankangNo (equal=0)Distance between “Jiankang” and “Luoyang”Zone 2 (Guanlong Region)Western Wei and Northern Zhou DynastiesChanganY

39、es (equal=1)Distance between “Changan” and “Luoyang”Zone 3 (Northern China Plain)Eastern Wei and Northern Qi DynastiesYechengYes (equal=1)Distance between “Yecheng” and “Luoyang”314. The Impact of the “Land Equalization Policy”2SLS strategy Second stage ability=const+*zonelandequal+z*zone + X*A+ Fir

40、st stage Zone=const+1*IV1landequal+2*IV2landequal+3*IV1+4*IV2+X*B + 3233ability(1)(2)(3)(4)zone-0.110*-0.0442*-0.110*-0.0446*(0.0154)(0.0180)(0.0174)(0.0207)zonelandequal0.0282*0.0101*0.0305*0.0124*(0.00228)(0.00344)(0.00268)(0.00402)distance-3.32e-05-1.72e-05(2.27e-05)(2.46e-05)trend0.00147*0.00141

41、*(0.000204)(0.000226)Control variablesYesYesYesYeszoneZone 1-3Zone 1-3Zone 1, Economic zone in North ChinaZone 1, Economic zone in North ChinaN2321231818631860R20.1010.1240.1050.1265.Testing for the mechanism of Land Equalization promoting Bureaucracy System Transformation5.1 Decline of aristocrat f

42、amilys statusPr(position=3)=(const+1*background+2*dum755+3*backgrounddum755+z*zonez+ X*)Background: official family(status=1), or aristocrat family (aristocrat=1)3435Official family(status=1)Aristocrat family(aristocrat=1)Position=3(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)statusdum7550.380*0.297*0.408*(0.127)(0.138)(0.159

43、)aristocratdum7550.297*0.237*0.348*(0.135)(0.143)(0.163)distance0.0001460.0001200.0002130.0001500.0001310.000241(0.000126)(0.000144)(0.000200)(0.000126)(0.000145)(0.000199)Control variablesYesYesYesYesYesYesBase zonezone1zone3zone3zone1zone3zone3Zone Zone1-3Zone2-3Economic zone in North ChinaZone1-3

44、Zone2-3Economic zone in North ChinaTime trendYesYesYesYesYesYespsudo R20.1270.1210.1040.1210.0980.142N2389207915932389207915935.Testing for the mechanism of Land Equalization promoting Bureaucracy System Transformation365.Testing for the mechanism of Land Equalization promoting Bureaucracy System Tr

45、ansformation 5.2 The enforcement of Land Equalization impaired the power of aristocrat groups (IV Probit Appraoch)First stage ari_pwr=1= 0+z*zonezlandequal+z*zonez + X*+ Second stage Pr(ability=1)=(0+1* ari_pwr+z*zonez + X*) 3738Aristocrat power：Aristocrat Being an high-rank officialAristocrat power

46、：the 3th-generation Aristocrat Being an high-rank officialSecond stage：Pro(ability=1) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) ari_high -2.824* -2.797* -2.738* (0.0515) (0.0512) (0.0583) ari3_high -2.346* -2.349* -2.300* (0.0511) (0.0529) (0.0618) Control variablesYes YesYes Yes Yes Yes First stage：Aristocrat power：

47、Aristocrat Being an high-rank officialAristocrat power：the 3th-generation Aristocrat Being an high-rank officialControl variablesYes YesYes Yes Yes Yes zone1landequal -0.00999* -0.0228* (0.00431) (0.0103) zone2landequal -0.0152* -0.0140* -0.0169* -0.0181* -0.0148* -0.0183* (0.00471) (0.00480) (0.005

48、68) (0.00702) (0.00731) (0.00846) zone3landequal -0.0177* -0.0167* -0.0193* -0.0276* -0.0231* -0.0299* (0.00485) (0.00511) (0.00584) (0.00978) (0.0106) (0.0123) distanceYes YesYes Yes Yes Yes zoneZone 1-3Zone 2-3Economic zone in North ChinaZone 1-3Zone 2-3Economic zone in North ChinaGeneration total

49、 total totalthe 3th-generation the 3th-generation the 3th-generation Base zonezone1 zone2 zone2 zone1 zone2 zone2 N 2322 2017 1560 1215 1066 814 6.ConclusionsThe Civil Service Exam System replaced the Hereditary System and opened up a new channel for the populace to mobile upward, was a vital political ins