老师北大量化史学2015报告

1、“The richest in the world” or “The miserablypoor”-A quantitative study of the food consumption in the Yangzi Delta of the early nineteenth centuryBozhong LiTsinghua UniversityThe Yangzi (Yangtze) DeltaThe Yangzi Delta in the study of Chinese economic history -The area under the most intensive study

2、-The major empirical basis of most influential theories in Chinese economic historyThe Yangzi Deltas shares in the national total, 2008 Land area: 1% Population: 5.9 % GDP: 18.9% Export: 37% Financial revenue: 25%The Yangzi Delta vs Guangdong GDP (2006)Guangdong: US$ 325.69 billionThe Yangzi Delta :

3、 US$ 496.58 billion Population (2000) Guangdong: 85.23 millionThe Yangzi Delta: 82.28 millionThe GDP per capita of the Yangzi Delta in 2007 (PPP) US$ 21,190 (in 2009 US dollar) - 60% of that of UK ($35,200) - 65% of that of France ($32,800) - equal with that of Portugal ($21,800) - higher than that

4、of Hungary ($18,600), Poland ($17,900) and Russia ($15,100) The polarization of the views of economic performance of the Yangzi Delta during the early modern times. -The richest in the world -The abysmal pauperisation Standards of living are one of the most important issues in economic history. It i

5、s a conventional wisdom in the previous scholarship of Chinese history that the Chinese people, in particular the peasantry, which is the majority of the Chinese population, had lived a “minimum substance level” of living for millennia before the 1949 Revolution. Chinese Marxist scholars attribute t

6、he abysmally low standards of living to the “ruthless feudal exploitation” (rents, corvee, taxation, etc.) Many Western scholars believe that the heavy and ever-increasing population pressure was responsible for the poverty. Yet these conclusions have not been well documented.The living standards of

7、 the peasants in the Yangzi Delta during the late imperial timesChen Zhenhan (1956): The peasants were living in an extreme poverty which could hardly maintain their physical existence. Philip Huang (1990): The peasants were living a “subsistence level” life or “minimum substance level” of life. Pin

8、g-ti Ho (1959): The peasants of eighteenth-century China lived better than their counterparts of eighteenth-century France, of early nineteenth-century Prussia, or of Togukawa Japan .Jacque Gernet (1972) : The Chinese peasant of the Yongzheng (172335) Reign and of the first half of Qianlong (1736176

9、5) Reign was in general better nourished and more comfortable than his French counterpart in the reign of Louis XV. Franois Furet: “It is not the sources which determine the approach, but the approach which determines the sources.” Quantitative research is crucial to the study of the standards of li

10、ving.Huating and Lou area“Before the Great Divergence? paring the Yangzi Delta and the Netherlands at the beginning of the nineteenth century” Bozhong Li and Jan Luiten van Zanden e per capita (PPP) in 1820s in 1990 US dollarSongjiang 1,015 The Netherlands 1,838Western Europe 1,194 In the studies of

11、 standards of living, food consumption may be one of the best indicators because the daily per capita nutrient intakes can be measured at quantification comparatively accurately and equally in different places and periods. Yearly Per Capita Food Consumption in Songjiang, 1820sFood Consumption Metric

12、 ConversionGrain Rice 2.7 shi 216 kg Beans 0.5 shi 35 kgMeat (Pork , Beef, Fowl, counted as pork) 33 catties 16.5 kgEgg 9 catties 4.5 kgFish 10 catties 5 kgCooking oil 10 catties 5 kgYearly Per Capita Calorie Intake in Songjiang, 1820sFood Consumption Calorie Calorie intake (kg) (Kcal/kg) (Kcal)Rice

13、 216 3,620 781,920Bean 35 3,390 138,990Meat 16.5 2,500 41,250Egg 4.5 1,500 5,250Fish 5 1,300 6,500Cooking oil 5 8,840 39,780Total 1,013,690Yearly Per Capita Protein Intake in Songjiang, 1820sFood Consumption Protein Protein intake (kg) (g/kg) (g)Rice 216 75 16,200Beans 35 137 5,617Meat 16.5 200 3,20

14、0Egg 4.5 113 396Fish 5 192 960Cooking oil 5 1 5Total 26,378 Daily per capita nutrient intakes in Songjiang of the early nineteenth century were 2,780 kilocalories and 72 grams of protein.What level of food consumption did these figures reach? -the internationally mended standard of daily per capita

15、nutrient intakes: 2,600 kilocalories and protein 72 grams of protein. - the daily per capita calorie intakes of contemporary China (the national surveys made by the Chinese government)Daily Per Capita Nutrient Intake (the national average) 1959 1982 1992 2002Calorie 2,060 2,485 2,328 2,250 (Kcal)Pro

16、tein - 67 68 65. 9 (g)Daily Per Capita Nutrient Intake (the worlds average) 1978 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Calorie (Kcal) 2527 2535 2644 2709 2748 2805 Protein (g) 66. 8 66. 9 69. 9 71. 6 73. 7 75. 6 The comparison demonstrates that the daily per capita nutrient intakes of the people in Songjiang of t

17、he early nineteenth century did reach the level of the worlds average in 1990s and the Chinese national level in 2000. The high level of food consumption which was reached in Songjiang of the early nineteenth century is confirmed by the contemporary observation of H. H. Lindsay, a clerk of the Briti

18、sh East India Company who visited Shanghai area in 1832 and was impressed by the abundance and cheapness of food supply there. He in particular mentioned that “the countrymen are well fed.” Per Capita Consumption of “Abortive Food” in Songjiang, 1820s Spirit Tea Sugar (liter) (lb) (lb)Songjiang 10 2

19、.6 7-8England - 1.4 18 Europe - 0.25 2Composition of Food Consumption in Songjiang, 1820s Amount Price Expenditure (coins/ ) (coins)Rice 2.7 shi 2,800 /shi 7,500Bean 0.5 shi 2,000 /shi 1,000Meat 33 catties 120 /catty 3,960Egg 9 catties 120 /catty 1,080Fish 10 catties 90 /catty 900Cooking oil 10 catt

20、ies 72 /catty 720Total 15,220 The portion of grain in the total expenditure in food was only 41%, while that of meat, egg, fish and cooking oil was 29% and that of “abortive foods” was 30%. It is obvious that this pattern of consumption is not compatible with a “minimum substance level” of living. The grain consumption of rural population per capita was remarkably higher in this period than what it was in 1956, though the 1956-grain consumption is the highest one in Jiangnans modern history befo