SixFactorsThatWillRockGlobalCottonTrade影响全球棉花

1、Six Factors That Will Rock Global Cotton Trade影响全球棉花贸易的六大因素By Ed Jernigan 艾德乔尼根Managing Director Asia 亚洲董事总经理FC Stone 福四通Kansas City, Missouri USA 美国密苏里州堪萨斯市Cotton is the underperformer of the agricultural sector; the single worst performing commodity since 2001. 棉花是农产品中表现较差的，也是2001年以来惟一一个表现最差的品种。Wo

2、rld cotton trade is set to undergo the most dramatic changes in over 100 years.全球棉花贸易将出现100多年来的最大变化。SIX FACTORS ARE SET TO ROCK GLOBAL COTTON TRADE IN THE YEARS AHEAD. 今后全球棉花贸易将受六大因素影响Factor #1第一个因素The End of U.S. Cotton Surplus美棉供应过剩将会结束Factor #1: The End of U.S. SurplusThe 2000 U.S. Farm Bill ushe

3、red in a period of record U.S. cotton production.美国2000年农业法案导致美棉产量创下历史最高纪录。This provided the world with a supply cushion for the last eight years.这在过去8年里为全球棉花供应提供了保障。Factor #1: The End of U.S. Surplus This means that global production growth outpaced the growth in consumption.这意味着全球棉花产量的增长超过了需求的增长。E

4、ach supply shock had limited impact; U.S. oversupply always meant ample supply.每次供应短缺对市场的影响都很有限，因为美棉供应过剩意味着全球供应充足。Factor #1: The End of U.S. Surplus 2006/07 U.S. carryout of 9.479 million bales = 15% of world carryover.2006/07年度，美国期末库存为947.9万包（206万吨），占全球的15。2007/08 U.S. carryout of 10.200 million ba

5、les = 16.7% of world carryover.2007/08年度美国期末库存为1020万包（222万吨），占全球的16.7。This is coming to an end:这种情况将会结束2008/09 = 3.22008/09年度美国期末库存预计为320万包（70万吨）2009/10 = 1.0 or less2009/10年度为100万包（22万吨)或更低It is gone!美棉库存就此彻底消失！Factor #1: The End of U.S. SurplusFactor #1: The End of U.S. Surplus 美国期末库存变化图Factor #2第

6、二个因素Battle for Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus Food棉花和粮食作物的种植面积之争已经全球化Factor #2: Battle for Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus FoodAfter decades, the surplus in global food stocks is gone.经过数十年，全球粮食库存过剩已经消失。Driven by:这是因为： Rise of China, India and Others 中国、印度和其他国家的发展 Increasing Populatio

7、n 人口增长 Rise Ethanol and Biofuels 乙醇和生物燃料的兴起 Climate Change 气候变化 Growing Water Scarcity 缺水问题加剧Factor #2: Battle for Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus FoodCotton now has to compete for acreage in most major-producing regions.在多数主产区，棉花必须要和其他作物争地。Acreage is determined by profitability, not governme

8、nt benefits.决定种植面积的因素是收益，而非政策。Factor #2: Battle for Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus FoodRising input costs for all major crops.所有主要作物的生产成本都在增加。Percentage of production costs related to fuel, fertilizer and chemicals. 燃料、化肥和农药占下列作物生产成本的比重：Corn 玉米：56.7%Wheat 小麦：49.3%Cotton 棉花：35.4%Rice 水稻：47.4%

9、Factor #2: Battle for Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus FoodFertilizer costs have exploded over 100 percent in 2008.2008年化肥成本暴涨一倍以上Factor #2: Battle for Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus FoodBiofuels: The rise of a new consumer.生物燃料：新型消费的兴起Biofuels used 7% of world oilseeds in 2008.2008年生物

10、燃料使用了全球7的油料作物。Factor #2: Battle for Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus FoodUSA: Profitability of 2009/10 Crops美国：2009/10年作物收益Prices as of July 30, 2008 Average profit per acre in cotton belt states:截至2008年7月30日，棉花产区其他作物每英亩平均收益（单位：美元/英亩）Corn 玉米：435Soybeans 大豆：528Cotton 棉花：200Factor #2: Battle for

11、 Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus FoodUnder this profitability scenario, why would U.S. growers want to grow cotton?在这个收益背景下，美国棉农有何理由继续种植棉花呢？Factor #2: Battle for Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus FoodBrazil: Profitability of 2009/10 Crops巴西：2009/10年度作物收益 Prices as of July 30, 2008:截至2008

12、年7月30日的收益：Corn 玉米： 365Soybeans 大豆： 156Cotton 棉花： 141Factor #2: Battle for Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus FoodIn 2008, cotton acreage in India declined due to more profitable oilseed prices.2008年，印度植棉面积因油料作物收益提高而下降。Factor #2: Battle for Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus FoodChinese growe

13、r input costs soared 35 to 50% in 2008.2008年，中国的棉花种植成本增加了35-50。 Rising fertilizer costs 化肥价格上涨 Rising labor costs 人工成本增加 Rising pesticide/chemical costs农药价格上涨Pushed breakeven sharply higher; 这使保本价大幅提高；Profitability now requires record yields. 现在实现收益只能依靠单产创新高。Factor #2: Battle for Acreage is Now Worl

14、dwide Cotton versus FoodAt current price levels, there is little incentive to expand cotton acreage anywhere.按目前的价格水平，任何一个地方都没有理由扩种棉花。Factor #2: Battle for Acreage is Now Worldwide Cotton versus FoodCotton must now buy its acreage.棉花现在必须用涨价的方式夺回失去的面积。Factor #3:第三个因素Central Asian Cotton Production to

15、 Sharply Decline End of a Role.中亚棉花产量大幅下降，其重要地位将会消失。Factor #3: Central Asian Cotton Production to Sharply Decline End of a Role.Central Asia has been one of the worlds largest cotton exporters since the breakup of the Soviet Union.自前苏联解体之后，中亚便成为全球最大的棉花出口地区之一。Factor #3: Central Asian Cotton Productio

16、n to Sharply Decline End of a Role.Cotton production decline now accelerating. 中亚地区棉花减产速度加快Climate Change 气候变化Drying of Aral Sea 耕地减少Inadequate investment in irrigation infrastructure 灌溉设施投入不足Competition for dwindling water supplies, i.e. (Uzbekistan versus rest of region) 水资源竞争激烈Socialist farming p

17、ractices continue 社会主义农业生产方式Inadequate input investment 生产投入不足Factor #3: Central Asian Cotton Production to Sharply Decline End of a Role.中亚棉花产量变化图Factor #3: Central Asian Cotton Production to Sharply Decline End of a Role.Cotton in Central Asia has been a cash crop, always produced and sold regardl

18、ess of price.棉花在中亚地区是经济作物，生产和销售往往不受价格的影响Now replaced by energy and metals as the leading export. 如今能源和金属出口量的增加取代了棉花的地位。Factor #3: Central Asian Cotton Production to Sharply Decline End of a Role.Loss of Large Supplies from Central Asia will not be easy to replace.中亚棉花供应量是难以替代的1. Low freight costs to

19、 Subcontinent and Asia via Bandar Abas Port;中亚棉经伊朗阿巴斯港运至次大陆和亚洲地区的运输成本很低；2. Short transit times to key import markets;中亚与主要棉花进口市场的运输距离较短；3. Hand picked.人工采摘。Factor #4: Growing Importance of India第四个因素：印度的地位日益重要Today India is:今天的印度是：Worlds second largest producer of cotton.Worlds second largest consum

20、er of cotton.Worlds second largest exporter of cotton.全球第二大棉花生产国、消费国和出口国。Factor #4: Growing Importance of IndiaTomorrow India will be:明天印度将成为：Worlds largest producer of cotton.Worlds largest exporter of cotton, replacing U.S.Worlds second largest domestic market for textiles and apparel offtake.全球最大

21、的棉花生产国；全球最大的棉花出口国，取代美国的地位；第二大纺织品和服装消费国。Factor #4: Growing Importance of India An additional 100 kilograms per hectare increase in average yield means 4.36 million bale increase in output.印度棉花单产每增加100公斤/公顷，总产量将增加436万包（100万吨）。2009/10 2010/11 output could exceed 30 million 480 pound bales.2009/102010/1

22、1年度，印度棉花产量可能突破3000万包（650万吨）。Factor #4: Growing Importance of India India enjoys a major advantage in shipping rates to Asia, making it a low cost supplier to the region.印度棉出口到亚洲地区在运费方面具有很大的优势，为亚洲供应低成本棉花。Factor #4: Growing Importance of India India has a large block of idle cotton spindles that await

23、 a return to profitability. This could significantly increase cotton consumption.印度的大量闲置纱锭将用于赢利，这会使印度的棉花消费量大大增加。2007/08年度： 18.40 million bales 1840万包（400万吨）2009/10年度： 20.74 million bales 2074万包（450万吨）2010/11年度： 22.26 million bales 2226万包（485万吨）Fact #5: Global Shakeout in Excessive Spinning Capacity第

24、五个因素：全球纺纱产能过剩的状况将会结束The world has an excess of cotton spindles.目前全球棉纺产能过剩。Fact #5: Global Shakeout in Excessive Spinning Capacity This overcapacity follows record investment in China, India and Vietnam.对中国、印度和越南创纪录的投资导致纺纱产能过剩。Fact #5: Global Shakeout in Excessive Spinning Capacity Global yarn prices

25、 will lag behind the sharp upward movement in cotton prices. This will significantly impact profitability of spinners marginal inefficient producers will be forced to close down.全球纱价的上涨将落后于棉价，这将严重地影响纱厂的利润。效益低下的厂家将被迫关门。Fact #5: Global Shakeout in Excessive Spinning Capacity World cotton consumption w

26、ill dip in 2008/09; and as this takes hold, will bottom out in 2009/10 and show considerable growth in 2010/11.全球棉花消费量将在2008/09年度出现下滑，在2009/10年度继续下滑但最终会稳定下来，并在2010/11年度出现显著增长。2007/08年度： 124.25 million bales 1.2425亿包（2705万吨）2008/09年度： 124.00 million bales 1.24亿包（2700万吨）2009/10年度： 123.00 million bales

27、 1.23亿包（2678万吨）2010/11年度： 130.00 million bales 1.30亿包（2830万吨）Fact #5: Global Shakeout in Excessive Spinning Capacity This will mean a return to profitability for the sector in 2009/10.这意味着纺织业将在2009/10年度恢复赢利。Factor #6: U.S./Japan/Europe No Longer the Center of the World第六个因素：美国、日本和欧洲不再是全球消费的中心For the

28、 past 25 years, global cotton consumption at the retail level has been driven by the U.S., European and Japanese consumer.过去25年里，美国、欧洲和日本的消费者一直都是全球零售市场中棉花消费的动力。Factor #6: U.S./Japan/Europe No Longer the Center of the WorldThese markets have seen:上述市场出现的情况： -Slowdown in population growth. 人口增长减慢-Agin

29、g of Population. 人口老龄化-Peak in consumer income. 消费者的收入达到高峰The growth markets are now: 目前正在增长的市场：-China中国-Russia/New Europe 俄罗斯/新欧洲国家-Asia (Ex. China & Japan) 亚洲（不含中国和日本）-Middle East中东-India 印度Factor #6: U.S./Japan/Europe No Longer the Center of the WorldChina: Apparel retail sales growing over 25 percent annually.中国：服装零售每年递增25以上。Doubling every four years on track to surprise U.S. in next ten years.每四年翻一倍，未来十年有可能让美国市场大吃一惊。Factor #6: U.S./Japan/E