庞大的外汇储备8-ValuationofBonds

1、庞大的外汇储备:$8 400亿;惊人的人民币存款: 18万亿;势不可挡的FDI: $600亿/年;全球加工厂:2亿劳动力/全球产业转移;国富民穷.(教育的贫穷是最大的贫穷)刚性的汇率,不良的金融体制,贸易体制.一府两会.1Valuation of Bonds Chapter 62objectives1.Distinguish between different kinds of bonds.2.Explain the more popular features of bonds.3.Define the term value as used for several different purp

2、oses.4.Describe the basic process for valuing assets.5.Estimate the value of a bond.6.Compute a bondholders expected rate of return.7.Explain three important relationships that exist in bond valuation.3Types of bondsTerminology and Characteristics of bonds Definitions of ValueValuation: The Basic Pr

3、ocessBond ValuationThe Bondholders Expected Rate of Return(Yield to Maturity)Bond Valuation :Three Important Relationships 4Why marketable bonds?Multiple financing instrumentsMonopoly vs DiversificationMarket oriented vs centrally planning oriented5bondA bond is a type of debt or long-term promissor

4、y note(期票), issued by the borrower, promising to pay its holder a predetermined and fixed amount of interest per year. 1.Debentures:公司债券2.Subordinated debentures3.Mortgage bonds4.Eurobonds5.Zero and very low coupon bonds6Junk bonds6 CHARACTERISTICS OF BONDS1.Claims on assets and income2.Par value3.C

5、oupon interest rate4.Maturity5.Indenture(契约)6.Current yield7.Bond ratings7Claims on assets and incomeInterest and dividends leads to Insolvency:BondsCommon stockPreferred stock8Par valuePar value of a bond: a face value that is returned to the bondholder at maturity.Denomination: $1 000Quotation: 10

6、1.375%9Coupon interest rateCoupon interest rate:Indicator of the percentage of the par value of the bond that will be paid out annually in the form of interest.For example:Interest rate:8%Par: $1 000 8% x $1 000 = $80.0010MaturityLength time to redeem the bonds.For example:3 years10 years30 years 11

7、Indenture(契约)Legal agreement:Between issuing companies and bond trustee who represents the bondholders.Common provisions : Prohibitions on the sale of accounts receivableConstraints on the issuance of common stock dividendsRestrictions on the purchase or sale of fixed assetsConstraints on additional

8、 borrowing12Current yieldCurrent yield =(annual interest payment)/(market price of the bond) =(0.08*$1,000)/ $700 = $80/$700=0.114=11.4% 13Standard and Poors Corporate Bond RatingsAAA AA A BBB BBBCCC CC C 14 CUR NETBONDS YLD VOL CLOSE CHGCaterplnc 6s07 6.8 49 88 +ChsCp 8s04 7.9 1 101 -ChsCp 608 6.8

9、8 89 -CPWV 713 7.8 30 93 -Chiquta 1004 10.5 3 100 -1ChckFul 7s12 cv 65 84 -1Chryslr 10.4s99 10.0 61 104 -Chryslr 10.95s17 10.0 8 109 15Economic Influencing on bonds1.Interest fluctuation2.Stock pricing 3.Exchange ratesInflationdeflation16DEFINITIONS OF VALUE 1Book value 2Liquidation value 3Market va

10、lue 4intrinsic or economic value = fair value efficient market 17V = BOND VALUATION 18Par value (M): $1 000Coupon interest rate: 12%Maturity: 5 yearsExpected return: 12% ( 9%/10%/12%/15%)Vb ?19EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN (YIELD TO MATURITY) 7% 8% PRESENT VALUE PRESENT PRESENT VALUE PRESE YEARS CASH FLOW

11、 FACTORS VALUE FACTor VALUE 1-10 $90 per year 7.024 $ 632.16 6.710 $603.9010 $1000 in year 10 0.508 508.00 0.463 $463.00 Present value $1,140.16 Present value $1,066.90 at 7% at 8% 20Par value (M): $1 000Coupon interest rate: 12%Maturity: 5 yearsExpected return: 12% ( 9%/10%/12%/15%)Vb ?2112% Vb=$12

12、0(PVIFA12%,5yr)+$l,000(PVIF12%,5 yr)Vb=$120 (3.605) + $l,000 (0.567) =$432.60 + $567.00 =$999.60$1,000,00 22PVIFAK,n = (1/k) ( 1 1/(1+k)n 2315%from 12 percept to 15 percent, Vb=$120(PVIFA15%,5yr)+ ,000(PVIF15%,5 yr)Vb=$120 (3.352) + $l,000 (0.497) =$402.24 + $497.00 =$899.24 24How can you determine1

13、5%?259%Vb=$120(PVIFA9%,5 yr) + $l,000(PF9%,5 yr)Vb=$120 (3.890) + $l,000 (0.650) =$466.80 + $650.00 =$1,116.80 26RELATIONSHIPSWe have now learned to find the value of a bond (Vb), (1) the mount of interest payment (It),(2) the maturity value (M), (3) the length of time to maturity (n years), and(4)

14、the investors required rate of return, kb.expected rate of return (kb),.27required rate coupon rate, market value 12 ,then $899.24 $l,000discount bond. required rate par value 9 $1,000 premium bond.2812% COUPON-RATEMARKET VALUE FOR A 12% COUPON-RATE BOND MATURING IN REOUIRED RATE 5 YEARS 10 YEARS 9%

15、 $1,116.80 $1,192.16 12 1,000.00 1,000.00 15 899.24 849.28 295个融资阶段“繁荣低谷高峰衰退恢复”的规律。5个融资发展阶段50年代:内部融资时期；60年代:租赁时期，70年代:高峰时期；80年代:倒退；90年代后期:恢复期。30内部融资时代世界航运市场:航运业庞大的营业现金流举债:经营无方英国船东: 仅有16%找到可以获利的项目来投资。 31融资租赁时代日本经济的起步:融资方式的变革。规模经济:中型和大型化银行业:开展了与航运业的合作。过低成本的“方便旗”:船厂造船，租赁给船公司，银行接受船舶抵押。船舶运量达到了9000万吨之多。日本

16、、香港的船东发展到了极致。 3233高峰时期造船热潮,大肆造船。贸易增长迅速，只要有了船就有了生意，1973年达到了1.2亿吨（图3）。1973年的石油危机，彻底粉碎了这一造船梦想。最大的崩溃。3435衰退时期航运界对船队进行了大规模的削减，到1984年，世界上将近四分之一的货轮宣布退休（如图4所示）。银行业的非理性行为，加剧了这场灾难。19831987四年间，船东拖欠贷款达100亿美元之多，银行彻底取消整个航运投资， 36OBJECTIVE 1a variety of types of bonds, including Debentures Subordinated debentures M

17、ortgage bonds Eurobonds Zero and very low coupon bonds Junk bonds 37OBJECTIVE 2characteristics that you might hear about bonds include the following:Claims on assets and incomePar valueCoupon interest rateMaturityIndentureCurrent yieldBond ratings3839恢复时代十年中，重新投入两千亿美元。航运业呼唤新的投融资方式。债券成为组成的绝大部分，而另一部分则

18、是权益，第三部分是政府的造船贷款。每年20亿美元增加到20世纪90年代末的每年近100亿美元。航运辛迪加越来越大，却越来越不容易管理。，德国政府担保的银行对造船业贷款超过5000亿美元。 404142Convertible bondsTheory and practise43可兑换证券可兑换证券是指可以在规定的期限内转换为一定股票数量的证券。可转换公司债券管理暂行办法转换期限为梯度式，如果因股票价格上扬，兑换成股票，那么这类投资者就成为公司的股东。 44所有权、股息和风险可兑换证券具有期权的可选择性，可兑换证券价格低于:3%15之间。多数债券公司的股价在发行债券后上扬了许多，从而使投资者获得高额利润。可兑换债券给企业带来了巨大的回旋余地， 45表1涨价前（美元）涨价后股 价515融资额(亿美元)11