Annual Energy Outlook 2022(AEO2022)

1、Annual Energy Outlook 2022(AEO2022)ForAnnual Energy Outlook 2022 Release at the Bipartisan Policy CenterMarch 3, 2022 | Washington, DCByStephen Nalley, Acting EIA AdministratorAngelina LaRose, Assistant Administrator for Energy AnalysisAEO2022 HighlightsPetroleum and natural gas remain the most-cons

2、umed sources of energy in the United States through 2050, but renewable energy is the fastest growing Wind and solar incentives, along with falling technology costs, support robust competition with natural gas for electricity generation, while the shares of coal and nuclear power decrease in the U.S

3、. electricity mixU.S. crude oil production reaches record highs, while natural gas production is increasingly driven by natural gas exports AEO2022 Press Release March 3, 20222AEO2022 examines a range of conditions from 2020 to 2050 AssumptionsCurrent laws and regulations as of November 2021Current

4、views on economic and demographic trends, and technology improvementsCompound annual growth rate for real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is 2.2% (Reference case)High Economic Growth case (2.7%) and Low Economic Growth case (1.8%) The Brent crude oil price by 2050 is $90 per barrel (b) in constant

5、 2021 dollars (Reference case) High Oil Price case ($170/b) and Low Oil Price case ($45/b) Oil and natural gas supply casesHigh: more accessible resources and lower extraction technology costs than the Reference caseLow: fewer accessible resources and higher extraction technology costs than the Refe

6、rence caseRenewables cost casesHigh: no cost reductions in renewable technologiesLow: renewables achieve 40% lower overnight capital costs by 2050 compared to Reference caseAEO2022 Press Release March 3, 20223Changes in AEO2022: Pandemic and LegislationCOVID-19 continues to be a major source of unce

7、rtainty, especially in the near term. AEO2022 includes provisions from the Bipartisan Infrastructure LawAEO2022 Press Release March 3, 20224 2021history projectionsHigh Economic GrowthReference Low Economic GrowthU.S. gross domestic product assumptionsAEO2022 economic growth casestrillion 2012 dolla

8、rsThe U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIAs role is unique by p

9、roviding an unbiased view of energy markets, EIA increases transparency and promotes public understanding of important energy issues.EIA has expanded its program in recent years to provide a growing customer base with coverage of increasingly complex and interrelated energy markets. AEO2022 Press Re

10、lease March 3, 20225AEO2022 core cases vary technical and macroeconomic assumptionsAEO2022 Press Release March 3, 20226Low Economic Growth caseLow Oil Price caseLow Oil and Gas Supply caseLow Renewables Cost caseReference caseHigh Economic Growth caseHigh Oil Price caseHigh Oil and Gas Supply caseHi

11、gh Renewables Cost caseHigherLowerExpectedCurrent laws and regulations as of November 2021Potentialnew lawsTechnical and macroeconomic assumptionsPolicy assumptionsUpcoming AEO2022 Issue in Focus cases vary technical, macroeconomic, and policy assumptionsAlternative policies assumptionsCarbon feeSun

12、set creditsExtended creditsNo new pipelinesAlternative technical and macroeconomic assumptionsAlternative weather assumptionsUse cases for battery storageAEO2022 Press Release March 3, 20227AEO2022 HighlightsPetroleum and natural gas remain the most-consumed sources of energy in the United States th

13、rough 2050, but renewable energy is the fastest growing Wind and solar incentives, along with falling technology costs, support robust competition with natural gas for electricity generation, while the shares of coal and nuclear power decrease in the U.S. electricity mixU.S. crude oil production rea

14、ches record highs, while natural gas production is increasingly driven by natural gas exports AEO2022 Press Release March 3, 20228Energy consumption by fuel AEO2022 Reference casequadrillion British thermal unitsAEO2022 Press Release March 3, 2022Renewables consumption grows fastest but remains far

15、below petroleum and other liquids consumption in 20509 2021history projectionspetroleum and other liquidsnatural gascoalother renewable energynuclearhydroliquid biofuelsEnergy consumption by sectorAEO2022 Reference casequadrillion British thermal unitselectric powertransportationindustrialresidentia

16、lcommercial 2021history projectionsNote: Biofuels are shown separately and included in petroleum and other liquids.Petroleum and other liquids are largely consumed by sectors with slow turnover to electric equipmentAEO2022 Press Release March 3, 202210transportationindustrialcommercialresidentialele

17、ctric power2021 projections Petroleum and other liquids consumption by sectorAEO2022 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units 2021 history projectionsotherelectric hybrid plug-in electrichybridbattery electricdieselflex fuelgasolineLight-duty vehicle sales by technology or fuel AEO2022 Refere

18、nce casemillions of vehiclesNew vehicle sales of battery-powered vehicles AEO2022 Reference casemillions of vehiclestotal battery electric including 100-, 200-, 300-mile electric vehicleselectric hybrid 300-mile electric plug-in electric hybrid 200-mile electric100-mile electric 2021 history project

19、ionsNatural gas consumption rises mostly because of industrial use and exports11net exportselectric powercommercialresidentialtransportationindustrialNatural gas disposition and net exportsAEO2022 Reference casetrillion cubic feetChange in natural gas disposition and net exportsAEO2022 Reference cas

20、erelative to 2021 in trillion cubic feetnet exportselectric powercommercialtransportationindustrialresidentialAEO2022 Press Release March 3, 2022Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector and fueltransportationindustrialelectric powerresidentialcommercial 2021history projections petroleumnatural gascoal

21、 2021 history projectionsEnergy-related CO2 emissions by fuel AEO2022 Reference casebillion metric tons Energy-related CO2 emissions by sectorAEO2022 Reference casebillion metric tons12Note: Series does not include greenhouse gases other than CO2. Industrial sector CO2 emissions do not include proce

22、ss emissions, such as the emissions from cement clinker production.AEO2022 Press Release March 3, 2022AEO2022 HighlightsPetroleum and natural gas remain the most-consumed sources of energy in the United States through 2050, but renewable energy is the fastest growing Wind and solar incentives, along

23、 with falling technology costs, support robust competition with natural gas for electricity generation, while the shares of coal and nuclear power decrease in the U.S. electricity mixU.S. crude oil production reaches record highs, while natural gas production is increasingly driven by natural gas ex

24、ports AEO2022 Press Release March 3, 202213AEO2022 Press Release March 3, 2022The U.S. annual average electricity growth rate remains below 1% across much of the projection period in the Reference case14U.S. electricity use growth rate, three-year rolling averageAEO2022 economic growth casespercenta

25、ge growth 2021 history projectionsHigh Economic GrowthReferenceLow Economic GrowthU.S. electricity use by end-use sector AEO2022 Reference case billion kilowatthoursonsite generationpurchased electricityresidential industrial commercial transportationRenewables consumption for electricity generation

26、 grows significantly in all cases, even as it trades off with nuclear, coal, and natural gas15AEO2022 Press Release March 3, 2022Note: Other renewables category includes electricity generation from hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, and other biomass sources. 2021 projectionsHigh Renewables Cost case

27、2021 projectionsLow Renewables Cost case 2021history projections Reference casenatural gassolarwindnuclearcoalother renewablesU.S. electricity generationbillion kilowatthours16Hourly U.S. electricity generation and load by fuel for selected cases and yearsbillion kilowatthours AEO2022 Reference case

28、, 2021 AEO2022 Reference case, 2050 AEO2022 Low Renewables Cost case, 2050hour of the daycurtailment battery storage pumped storage solar wind hydroelectric natural gas combined-cycle natural gas and oil peakers nuclear coalSignificant renewables growth leads to additional battery storageAEO2022 Pre

29、ss Release March 3, 2022Note: Negative generation represents charging of energy storage technologies such as pumped hydro and battery storage. Hourly dispatch estimates are illustrative and are developed to determine curtailment and storage operations; final dispatch estimates are developed separate

30、ly and may differ from total utilization as this figure shows. Solar includes both utility-scale and end-use photovoltaic electricity generation. loadloadloadAEO2022 HighlightsPetroleum and natural gas remain the most-consumed sources of energy in the United States through 2050, but renewable energy

31、 is the fastest growing Wind and solar incentives, along with falling technology costs, support robust competition with natural gas for electricity generation, while the shares of coal and nuclear power decrease in the U.S. electricity mixU.S. crude oil production reaches record highs, while natural

32、 gas production is increasingly driven by natural gas exports AEO2022 Press Release March 3, 202217 2021history projectionsU.S. crude oil productionAEO2022 Reference case and side casesmillion barrels per dayProduction of U.S. crude oil rises early in the projection and remains largely flat in the R

33、eference case18High Oil PriceHigh Oil and Gas SupplyReferenceLow Oil PriceLow Oil and Gas SupplyAEO2022 Press Release March 3, 2022High Oil PriceLow Oil and Gas SupplyReferenceHigh Oil and Gas SupplyLow Oil Price 2021 history projectionsNorth Sea Brent crude oil priceAEO2022 side cases2021 dollars p

34、er barrelThe United States remains a net exporter of total liquids and a net importer of crude oil in the Reference case19AEO2022 Press Release March 3, 2022 2021history projectionsimportsexportsnet importsTotal petroleum and other liquids tradeAEO2022 Reference casemillion barrels per day 2021histo

35、ry projectionsimportsexportsnet importsCrude oil tradeAEO2022 Reference casemillion barrels per dayDry natural gas productionAEO2022 side casestrillion cubic feetU.S. natural gas production grows in most cases, but price and technology assumptions play a central role20 2021 history projectionsHigh Oil andGas SupplyHigh Oil PriceReferenceLow Oil PriceLow