工业4.0时代菲律宾的技术和职业教育与培训

1、 HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Tables, Figures, and Boxes HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 iv HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Foreword by the Vice-President, Asian Development Bank HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 ix HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Foreword by the Director General, Technical Education and Skills Development Authority HYPERLINK

2、 l _bookmark2 x HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Acknowledgments HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 xi HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Contributors HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 xiii HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Abbreviations HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 xv HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Executive Summary HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 xvii HYPERLINK l _bookmark7

3、Part I. HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Economic and Labor Market Context HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Structural Transformation in the Philippines HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Labor Market Diagnostics HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 Industry 4.0 and

4、the Changing Demand for Labor HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark61 Impact of COVID-19 on the Labor Market HYPERLINK l _bookmark61 67 HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 Part II. Technical and Vocational Education and Training and the Education System in the Philippines HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 85 H

5、YPERLINK l _bookmark74 Technical and Vocational Education and Training Provision in the Context of Industry 4.0 HYPERLINK l _bookmark74 86 HYPERLINK l _bookmark81 Education System Reforms and the Implications for Technical and Vocational Education and Training HYPERLINK l _bookmark81 102 HYPERLINK l

6、 _bookmark87 Technical and Vocational Education and Training Trends Over the Last Decade HYPERLINK l _bookmark87 114 HYPERLINK l _bookmark101 Part III. Empirical Findings for Technical and Vocational Education and Training Performance HYPERLINK l _bookmark101 133 HYPERLINK l _bookmark102 Employment

7、Outcomes for Technical and Vocational Education and Training Graduates HYPERLINK l _bookmark102 134 HYPERLINK l _bookmark108 Returns to Technical and Vocational Education and Training in the Philippines HYPERLINK l _bookmark108 150 HYPERLINK l _bookmark127 Measuring TrainingJob Mismatch HYPERLINK l

8、_bookmark127 173 HYPERLINK l _bookmark136 Impact of the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority Scholarships HYPERLINK l _bookmark136 186 HYPERLINK l _bookmark148 Part IV. Conclusions and Recommendations HYPERLINK l _bookmark148 209 HYPERLINK l _bookmark149 What Works for Technical and

9、Vocational Education and Training: Review of International Experience HYPERLINK l _bookmark149 210Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark158 Conclusions and Recommendations HYPERLINK l _bookmark158 222 HYPERLINK l _bookmark159 Background Papers HYPERLINK l _bookmark159 233 HYPERLINK l _bookmark160 References

10、 HYPERLINK l _bookmark160 234Tables, Figures, and BoxesTables HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 2.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Change in Key Labor Market Indicators by Demographic Group, 20082018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 2.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 Regional Diagnostics and Labor Market

11、Indicators, 2018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 A2.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 Regional Labor Market Indicators by Demographic Groups, 2018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 42 HYPERLINK l _bookmark60 3.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark60 Changing Importance of Different Skills in the IT-BPO and Elect

12、ronics HYPERLINK l _bookmark60 65 HYPERLINK l _bookmark60 Manufacturing Industries, 2018 and 2030 HYPERLINK l _bookmark67 4.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark67 Unemployed Persons by Highest Grade Completed, April 2020 versus April 2019 HYPERLINK l _bookmark67 73 HYPERLINK l _bookmark68 4.2 HYPERLINK l _bookma

13、rk68 Job Losses and Labor Reallocation, 2020 HYPERLINK l _bookmark68 74 HYPERLINK l _bookmark94 7.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark94 Top 10 Qualifications with Expected Occupations and Corresponding HYPERLINK l _bookmark94 123 HYPERLINK l _bookmark94 Occupational Groups, 20132016 HYPERLINK l _bookmark97 7.2

14、HYPERLINK l _bookmark97 Regional Technical and Vocational Education and Training Statistics HYPERLINK l _bookmark97 126 HYPERLINK l _bookmark99 A7.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark99 Male and Female Share of Graduates, Employment-to-Population Rate, HYPERLINK l _bookmark99 130 HYPERLINK l _bookmark99 Unemploy

15、ment Rate, and Labor Force Participation Rate by Course/Program HYPERLINK l _bookmark105 8.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark105 Average Treatment Effect on the Treated of Technical and Vocational HYPERLINK l _bookmark105 140 HYPERLINK l _bookmark105 Education and Training on Employment Outcomes, 2018 HYPERLIN

16、K l _bookmark105 8.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark105 Overidentification Test for Covariate Balance HYPERLINK l _bookmark105 140 HYPERLINK l _bookmark105 8.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark105 Wald Test for Endogeneity of the Unobservable Characteristics HYPERLINK l _bookmark105 140 HYPERLINK l _bookmark106 A8.1 HYPE

17、RLINK l _bookmark106 Summary Statistics of the Sample, 2018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark106 146 HYPERLINK l _bookmark106 A8.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark106 Employment Status by Selected Demographic Groups, 2018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark106 146 HYPERLINK l _bookmark106 A8.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark106 Underemployment S

18、tatus by Selected Demographic Groups, 2018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark106 146 HYPERLINK l _bookmark107 A8.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark107 Average Marginal Employment Effects of Demographic and Program-Specific HYPERLINK l _bookmark107 148 HYPERLINK l _bookmark107 Characteristics, 2017 Graduate Tracer Study HYP

19、ERLINK l _bookmark111 9.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark111 Sample and Population Distribution by Education Level HYPERLINK l _bookmark111 153 HYPERLINK l _bookmark120 A9.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark120 Heckman Selection Model, Without Controls HYPERLINK l _bookmark120 166 HYPERLINK l _bookmark121 A9.2 HYPERLINK

20、l _bookmark121 Heckman Selection Model, With Controls HYPERLINK l _bookmark121 167 HYPERLINK l _bookmark122 A9.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark122 Returns to Education by Level HYPERLINK l _bookmark122 168 HYPERLINK l _bookmark122 A9.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark122 First Stage Probit Regression: Heckman Model wit

21、h Labor Force Participation Selection HYPERLINK l _bookmark122 168 HYPERLINK l _bookmark123 A9.5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark123 Returns to Upper Secondary Education by Track HYPERLINK l _bookmark123 169 HYPERLINK l _bookmark124 A9.6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark124 Returns to Post-Secondary Non-Tertiary Technical

22、 and Vocational Education and Training HYPERLINK l _bookmark124 170 HYPERLINK l _bookmark125 A9.7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark125 Returns to Post-Secondary Non-Tertiary Technical and Vocational Education and Training by Field HYPERLINK l _bookmark125 171 HYPERLINK l _bookmark125 A9.8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1

23、25 Returns to Short-Cycle Tertiary Technical and Vocational Education and Training HYPERLINK l _bookmark125 171 HYPERLINK l _bookmark126 A9.9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark126 Returns to Tertiary Education by Level HYPERLINK l _bookmark126 172 HYPERLINK l _bookmark128 10.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark128 Types of S

24、kills Mismatch HYPERLINK l _bookmark128 174 HYPERLINK l _bookmark129 10.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark129 Measures of Skills Mismatch HYPERLINK l _bookmark129 175 HYPERLINK l _bookmark131 10.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark131 Sample Identified from the Individual Graduate Tracer Surveys, 20132014 and 2017 HYPERLIN

25、K l _bookmark131 179 HYPERLINK l _bookmark135 A10.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark135 Coefficient Estimates from the Logit Regression, 20132014 and 2017 Technical HYPERLINK l _bookmark135 184 HYPERLINK l _bookmark135 and Vocational Education and Training Graduates HYPERLINK l _bookmark141 11.1 HYPERLINK l _b

26、ookmark141 TWSP, STEP, and PESFA Distribution of Qualifications by Industry, 2018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark141 191Tables, Figures, and BoxesvFigures HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 1.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Annual Average Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate, by Broad Sector HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 3 HYPERLINK l _

27、bookmark10 1.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Gross Value Added Share of Gross Domestic Product, by Broad Sector HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 1.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Gross Value Added Share of Gross Domestic Product, by Industry HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 1.4

28、 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Annual Average Gross Value Added Growth, by Industry HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 1.5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Annual Average Gross Value Added Growth of Manufacturing Sector, by Technology Level HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 1.6 HYPER

29、LINK l _bookmark13 Annual Average Growth of Manufacturing Exports, by Technology HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 1.7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Annual Average Gross Domestic Product/Gross Value Added Growth HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 and Employment Growth, 20002

30、010 and 20102019 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 1.8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Elasticity of Wage Employment to Gross Domestic Product/Gross Value Added Growth, HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 by Broad Sector HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 1.9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Elasticity of Low-Paid Wage Em

31、ployment to Gross Domestic Product/ HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Gross Value Added Growth, by Broad Sector HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 1.10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Elasticity of Vulnerable Employment to Gross Domestic Product/Gross Value Added Growth, HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 11 HYP

32、ERLINK l _bookmark17 by Broad Sector HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 1.11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Elasticity of Underemployment to Gross Domestic Product/Gross Value Added Growth, HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 by Broad Sector HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 1.12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Labor Pr

33、oductivity and Employment Share, 2000 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 1.13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Labor Productivity and Employment Share, 2019 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 1.14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Decomposition of Aggregate Labor Productivity Change, 20

34、002010 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 1.15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Decomposition of Aggregate Labor Productivity Change, 20102019 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 2.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Gross Domestic Product Growth and Employment-to-Population Ration in th

35、e Philippines HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 and East Asia and the Pacific, 20002018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 2.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Key Labor Market Indicators, 20082019 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 2.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Employment Share by Broad

36、Sector, 19982019 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 2.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Average Annual Employment Growth Rate and Net Employment Growth by Sector, 20082018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 2.5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Employment by Industry, 2018 (1-digit PSI

37、C) HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 2.6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Employment Share by Major Occupational Group and Skill Category, 20012019 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 2.7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 Average Annual Employment Growth Rates by Major Occupational Grou

38、p, 20012018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 2.8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Skills Demand and Supply, 20122017 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 2.9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 Status in Employment Distribution, 20082019 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32

39、2.10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 Change in Regional Labor Market Indicators, 20082018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 2.11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Average Annual Employment Growth, 20082018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 2.12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 Poverty Inciden

40、ce and Regional Labor Market Indicators, 2018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 2.13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 Employment Shift from Agriculture to Industry and Services at the Regional Level, 20082018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 2.14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 Reg

41、ional Employment Shares by Broad Sector, 2018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 2.15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 Average Annual Growth Rate by Broad Sector and Region, 20082018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 A2.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 A Snapshot of the Philippines

42、Labor Market, 2018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 A2.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 Change in Agriculture Share in Employment and Decline in Vulnerable Employment Rate, 20082018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 A2.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 Population Growth Rates and

43、 Change in Urbanization Rates at the Regional Level, 20082018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 A2.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Poverty Incidence, Change in Poverty Incidence, and Public Share of Technical and Vocational HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Education and

44、Training Enrollment by Region HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 3.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 Net Employment Growth in Manufacturing by Technology Intensity, 20102017 HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 3.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 Average Annual Employment Growth Rate in Manufacturing by Technolo

45、gy Intensity, 20102017 HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 3.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 Net Employment Growth by Labor Productivity Group, 20102017 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 3.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 Average Annual Employment Growth Rate in Services by Labor

46、Productivity Group, 20102017 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 3.5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 Workforce Composition across Global Value Chains HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 50 HYPERLINK l _bookmark48 3.6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark48 Change in Wage and Salaried Work and Precarious Employment in Ma

47、nufacturing HYPERLINK l _bookmark48 52 HYPERLINK l _bookmark48 by Technology Intensity, 20102017viTables, Figures, and Boxes HYPERLINK l _bookmark49 Change in Wage and Salaried Share and Precarious Employment Share in Services, 2010-2017 HYPERLINK l _bookmark49 53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark49 Change in W

48、orking Hours and Labor Productivity Growth by Industry, 20102017 HYPERLINK l _bookmark49 53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark50 Employment Distribution by Skill Level and Skills Intensity at the Aggregate Level, 20102018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark50 54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 Demand Share by Task Content of Occupati

49、ons, 20102018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 55 HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 Employment Distribution by Broad Occupational Group, 20102018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 55 HYPERLINK l _bookmark52 Change in Occupational Demand by Skill Category, Selected Manufacturing Industries, 20102017 HYPERLINK l _bookmark52 56 HY

50、PERLINK l _bookmark55 Basic Daily Pay by Task-Based Occupational Group, 2010 and 2018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark55 59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark55 Skill Premium by Sex, 2010 and 2018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark55 59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark56 Gender Pay Gaps and Change in Real Wages (Basic Pay), 2010 and 2018 HYPERLIN

51、K l _bookmark56 60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark56 Labor Substitution Risk in Key Industries HYPERLINK l _bookmark56 60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark58 Industries Facing Highest Risk of Job Losses due to Automation HYPERLINK l _bookmark58 63 HYPERLINK l _bookmark59 Female Share of Employment in Industries at High R

52、isk of Automation HYPERLINK l _bookmark59 64 HYPERLINK l _bookmark62 Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate and Employment Growth Rate, 20082021 HYPERLINK l _bookmark62 68 HYPERLINK l _bookmark63 Real Gross Value Added Growth Rate by Industry Group, Year-on-Year HYPERLINK l _bookmark63 69 HYPERLINK

53、 l _bookmark63 Estimated Change in Employment by Broad Industry Group HYPERLINK l _bookmark63 69 HYPERLINK l _bookmark64 Real Gross Value Added Growth Rate by Industry Sectors, Year-on-Year HYPERLINK l _bookmark64 70 HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 Estimated Job Losses in the Industry Sectors HYPERLINK l _b

54、ookmark65 71 HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 Real Gross Value Added Growth Rate for Most Affected Services Sectors, Year-on-Year HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 71 HYPERLINK l _bookmark66 Estimated Job Losses in the Services Sectors HYPERLINK l _bookmark66 72 HYPERLINK l _bookmark67 Unemployment, April 2005July 202

55、0 HYPERLINK l _bookmark67 73 HYPERLINK l _bookmark68 Working-Age Population by Labor Market Status HYPERLINK l _bookmark68 74 HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 Job Losses due to COVID-19 in Selected Sectors, 2020 Preliminary versus Projections HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 75 HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 COVID-19 String

56、ency and Mobility in the Philippines HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 75 HYPERLINK l _bookmark70 Change in Employment by Working Time, Selected Sectors HYPERLINK l _bookmark70 76 HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 Number of Working Poor in Select Sectors, 2020 HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 77 HYPERLINK l _bookmark72 Change i

57、n the Number of Poor, 2020 versus 2018, Various Approaches HYPERLINK l _bookmark72 78 HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 Organizational Anchors of Technical Education and Skills Development Authority HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 87 HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 Structure of Technical Education and Skills Development Auth

58、ority Secretariat HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 87 HYPERLINK l _bookmark79 Technical and Vocational Education and Training Institutions and their Perception of Readiness HYPERLINK l _bookmark79 95 HYPERLINK l _bookmark79 for Industry 4.0 HYPERLINK l _bookmark82 Time Frame of Selected Reform Milestones HYP

59、ERLINK l _bookmark82 103 HYPERLINK l _bookmark86 The Philippine Qualifications Framework HYPERLINK l _bookmark86 111 HYPERLINK l _bookmark87 Technical and Vocational Education and Training Enrollment, Program Completion, Assessment, and Certification, 20082018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark87 114 HYPERLINK l

60、 _bookmark88 Technical and Vocational Education and Training Enrollment by Delivery Mode, 20092018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark88 115 HYPERLINK l _bookmark89 Enrollment in Post-Secondary Courses (20132017) and Senior High School (2016 and 2017) HYPERLINK l _bookmark89 116 HYPERLINK l _bookmark90 Employment