TED演讲选择越多困惑越多英文稿教学文稿

1、Good is good, but better carries it.精益求精，善益求善。TED演讲选择越多困惑越多英文稿-ImgoingtotalktoyouaboutsomestuffthatsinthisbookofminethatIhopewillresonatewithotherthingsyouvealreadyheard,andIlltrytomakesomeconnectionsmyself,incaseyoumissthem.IwanttostartwithwhatIcalltheofficialdogma.Theofficialdogmaofwhat?Theofficia

2、ldogmaofallwesternindustrialsocieties.Andtheofficialdogmarunslikethis:ifweareinterestedinmaximizingthewelfareofourcitizens,thewaytodothatistomaximizeindividualfreedom.Thereasonforthisisboththatfreedomisinandofitselfgood,valuable,worthwhile,essentialtobeinghuman.Andbecauseifpeoplehavefreedom,theneach

3、ofuscanactonourowntodothethingsthatwillmaximizeourwelfare,andnoonehastodecideonourbehalf.Thewaytomaximizefreedomistomaximizechoice.Themorechoicepeoplehave,themorefreedomtheyhave,andthemorefreedomtheyhave,themorewelfaretheyhave.This,Ithink,issodeeplyembeddedinthewatersupplythatitwouldntoccurtoanyonet

4、oquestionit.Anditsalsodeeplyembeddedinourlives.Illgiveyousomeexamplesofwhatmodernprogresshasmadepossibleforus.Thisismysupermarket.Notsuchabigone.Iwanttosayjustawordaboutsaladdressing.175saladdressingsinmysupermarket,ifyoudontcountthe10differentextra-virginoliveoilsand12balsamicvinegarsyoucouldbuytom

5、akeaverylargenumberofyourownsaladdressings,intheoffchancethatnoneofthe175thestorehasonoffersuityou.Sothisiswhatthesupermarketislike.Andthenyougototheconsumerelectronicsstoretosetupastereosystem-speakers,CDplayer,tapeplayer,tuner,amplifier.Andinthisonesingleconsumerelectronicsstore,therearethatmanyst

6、ereosystems.Wecanconstructsixandahalfmilliondifferentstereosystemsoutofthecomponentsthatareonofferinonestore.Youvegottoadmitthatsalotofchoice.Inotherdomains-theworldofcommunications.Therewasatime,whenIwasaboy,whenyoucouldgetanykindoftelephoneserviceyouwanted,aslongasitcamefromMaBell.Yourentedyourpho

7、ne.Youdidntbuyit.Oneconsequenceofthat,bytheway,isthatthephoneneverbroke.Andthosedaysaregone.Wenowhaveanalmostunlimitedvarietyofphones,especiallyintheworldofcellphones.Thesearecellphonesofthefuture.Myfavoriteisthemiddleone-theMP3player,nosehairtrimmer,andcremebruleetorch.Andifbysomechanceyouhaventsee

8、nthatinyourstoreyet,youcanrestassuredthatonedaysoonyouwill.Andwhatthisdoesisitleadspeopletowalkintotheirstoresaskingthisquestion.Anddoyouknowwhattheanswertothisquestionnowis?TheanswerisNo.Itisnotpossibletobuyacellphonethatdoesntdotoomuch.So,inotheraspectsoflifethataremuchmoresignificantthanbuyingthi

9、ngs,Thesameexplosionofchoiceistrue.Healthcare-itisnolongerthecaseintheUnitedStatesthatyougotothedoctor,andthedoctortellsyouwhattodo.Instead,yougotothedoctor,andthedoctortellsyou,well,wecoulddoA,orwecoulddoB.Ahasthesebenefits,andtheserisks.Bhasthesebenefits,andtheserisks.Whatdoyouwanttodo?Andyousay,D

10、oc,whatshouldIdo?Andthedocsays,Ahasthesebenefitsandrisks,andBhasthesebenefitsandrisks.Whatdoyouwanttodo?Andyousay,Ifyouwereme,Doc,whatwouldyoudo?Andthedocsays,ButImnotyou.Andtheresultis-wecallitpatientautonomy,whichmakesitsoundlikeagoodthing.Butwhatitreallyisisashiftingoftheburdenandtheresponsibilit

11、yfordecision-makingfromsomebodywhoknowssomething-namelythedoctor-tosomebodywhoknowsnothingandisalmostcertainlysickandthusnotinthebestshapetobemakingdecisions-namelythepatient.Theresenormousmarketingofprescriptiondrugstopeoplelikeyouandme,which,ifyouthinkaboutit,makesnosenseatall,sincewecantbuythem.W

12、hydotheymarkettousifwecantbuythem?Theansweristhattheyexpectustocallourdoctorsthenextmorningandaskprescriptionstobechanged.Somethingasdramaticasouridentityhasnowbecomeamatterofchoice,asthisslideismeanttoindicate.Wedontinheritanidentity,wegettoinventit.Andwegettore-inventourselvesasoftenaswelike.Andth

13、atmeansthateverydaywhenyouwakeupinthemorning,youhavetodecidewhatkindofpersonyouwanttobe.Withrespecttomarriageandfamily,therewasatimewhenthedefaultassumptionthatalmosteveryonehadisthatyougotmarriedassoonasyoucould,andthenyoustartedhavingkidsassoonasyoucould.Theonlyrealchoicewaswho,notwhen,andnotwhaty

14、oudidafter.Nowadays,everythingisverymuchupforgrabs.Iteachwonderfullyintelligentstudents,andIassign20percentlessworkthanIusedto.Anditsnotbecausetheyrelesssmart,anditsnotbecausetheyrelessdiligent.Itsbecausetheyarepreoccupied,askingthemselves,ShouldIgetmarriedornot?ShouldIgetmarriednow?ShouldIgetmarrie

15、dlater?ShouldIhavekidsfirst,oracareerfirst?Alloftheseareconsumingquestions.Andtheyregoingtoanswerthesequestions,whetherornotitmeansnotdoingalltheworkIassignandnotgettingagoodgradeinmycourses.Andindeedtheyshould.Theseareimportantquestionstoanswer.Work-weareblessed,asCarlwaspointingout,withthetechnolo

16、gythatenablesustoworkeveryminuteofeverydayfromanyplaceontheplanet-excepttheRandolphHotel.(Laughter)Thereisonecorner,bytheway,thatImnotgoingtotellanybodyabout,wheretheWiFiworks.ImnottellingyouaboutitbecauseIwanttouseit.Sowhatthismeans,thisincrediblefreedomofchoicewehavewithrespecttowork,isthatwehavet

17、omakeadecision,againandagainandagain,aboutwhetherweshouldorshouldntbeworking.Wecangotowatchourkidplaysoccer,andwehaveourcellphoneononehip,andourBlackberryonourotherhip,andourlaptop,presumably,onourlaps.Andeveniftheyreallshutoff,everyminutethatwerewatchingourkidmutilateasoccergame,wearealsoaskingours

18、elves,ShouldIanswerthiscellphonecall?ShouldIrespondtothisemail?ShouldIdraftthisletter?Andeveniftheanswertothequestionisno,itscertainlygoingtomaketheexperienceofyourkidssoccergameverydifferentthanitwouldvebeen.Soeverywherewelook,bigthingsandsmallthings,materialthingsandlifestylethings,lifeisamatterof

19、choice.Andtheworldweusedtoliveinlookedlikethis.Thatistosay,thereweresomechoices,butnoteverythingwasamatterofchoice.Andtheworldwenowliveinlookslikethis.Andthequestionis,isthisgoodnews,orbadnews?Andtheanswerisyes.(Laughter)Weallknowwhatsgoodaboutit,soImgoingtotalkaboutwhatsbadaboutit.Allofthischoiceha

20、stwoeffects,twonegativeeffectsonpeople.Oneeffect,paradoxically,isthatitproducesparalysis,ratherthanliberation.Withsomanyoptionstochoosefrom,peoplefinditverydifficulttochooseatall.Illgiveyouoneverydramaticexampleofthis,astudythatwasdoneofinvestmentsinvoluntaryretirementplans.Acolleagueofminegotaccess

21、toinvestmentrecordsfromVanguard,thegiganticmutualfundcompanyofaboutamillionemployeesandabout2,000differentworkplaces.Andwhatshefoundisthatforevery10mutualfundstheemployeroffered,rateofparticipationwentdowntwopercent.Youoffer50funds-10percentfeweremployeesparticipatethanifyouonlyofferfive.Why?Because

22、with50fundstochoosefrom,itssodamnhardtodecidewhichfundtochoosethatyoulljustputitoffuntiltomorrow.Andthentomorrow,andthentomorrow,andtomorrow,andtomorrow,andofcoursetomorrownevercomes.Understandthatnotonlydoesthismeanthatpeoplearegoingtohavetoeatdogfoodwhentheyretirebecausetheydonthaveenoughmoneytopu

23、taway,italsomeansthatmakingthedecisionissohardthattheypassupsignificantmatchingmoneyfromtheemployer.Bynotparticipating,theyarepassingupasmuchas5,000dollarsayearfromtheemployer,whowouldhappilymatchtheircontribution.Soparalysisisaconsequenceofhavingtoomanychoices.AndIthinkitmakestheworldlooklikethis.(

24、Laughter)Youreallywanttogetthedecisionrightifitsforalleternity,right?Youdontwanttopickthewrongmutualfund,oreventhewrongsaladdressing.Sothatsoneeffect.Thesecondeffectisthatevenifwemanagetoovercometheparalysisandmakeachoice,weenduplesssatisfiedwiththeresultofthechoicethanwewouldbeifwehadfeweroptionsto

25、choosefrom.Andthereareseveralreasonsforthis.Oneofthemisthatwithalotofdifferentsaladdressingstochoosefrom,ifyoubuyone,anditsnotperfect-and,youknow,whatsaladdressingis?Itseasytoimaginethatyoucouldhavemadeadifferentchoicethatwouldhavebeenbetter.Andwhathappensisthisimaginedalternativeinducesyoutoregrett

26、hedecisionyoumade,andthisregretsubtractsfromthesatisfactionyougetoutofthedecisionyoumade,evenifitwasagooddecision.Themoreoptionsthereare,theeasieritistoregretanythingatallthatisdisappointingabouttheoptionthatyouchose.Second,whateconomistscallopportunitycosts.DanGilbertmadeabigpointthismorningoftalki

27、ngabouthowmuchthewayinwhichwevaluethingsdependsonwhatwecomparethemto.Well,whentherearelotsofalternativestoconsider,itiseasytoimaginetheattractivefeaturesofalternativesthatyoureject,thatmakeyoulesssatisfiedwiththealternativethatyouvechosen.Heresanexample.ForthoseofyouwhoarentNewYorkers,Iapologize.(La

28、ughter)Buthereswhatyouresupposedtobethinking.HeresthiscoupleontheHamptons.Veryexpensiverealestate.Gorgeousbeach.Beautifulday.Theyhaveitalltothemselves.Whatcouldbebetter?Well,damnit,thisguyisthinking,ItsAugust.EverybodyinmyManhattanneighborhoodisaway.Icouldbeparkingrightinfrontofmybuilding.Andhespend

29、stwoweeksnaggedbytheideathatheismissingtheopportunity,dayafterday,tohaveagreatparkingspace.Opportunitycostssubtractfromthesatisfactionwegetoutofwhatwechoose,evenwhenwhatwechooseisterrific.Andthemoreoptionstherearetoconsider,themoreattractivefeaturesoftheseoptionsaregoingtobereflectedbyusasopportunit

30、ycosts.Heresanotherexample.Nowthiscartoonmakesalotofpoints.Itmakespointsaboutlivinginthemomentaswell,andprobablyaboutdoingthingsslowly.Butonepointitmakesisthatwheneveryourechoosingonething,yourechoosingnottodootherthings.Andthoseotherthingsmayhavelotsofattractivefeatures,anditsgoingtomakewhatyouredo

31、inglessattractive.Third:escalationofexpectations.ThishitmewhenIwenttoreplacemyjeans.Iwearjeansalmostallthetime.Andtherewasatimewhenjeanscameinoneflavor,andyouboughtthem,andtheyfitlikecrap,andtheywereincrediblyuncomfortable,andifyouworethemlongenoughandwashedthemenoughtimes,theystartedtofeelOK.SoIwen

32、ttoreplacemyjeansafteryearsandyearsofwearingtheseoldones,andIsaid,Youknow,Iwantapairofjeans,heresmysize.Andtheshopkeepersaid,Doyouwantslimfit,easyfit,relaxedfit?Youwantbuttonflyorzipperfly?Youwantstonewashedoracidwashed?Doyouwantthemdistressed?Youwantbootcut,youwanttapered,blahblahblah.Onandonhewent

33、.Myjawdropped,andafterIrecovered,Isaid,Iwantthekindthatusedtobetheonlykind.(Laughter)Hehadnoideawhatthatwas,soIspentanhourtryingonallthesedamnjeans,andIwalkedoutofthestore-truthbetold-withthebestfittingjeansIhadeverhad.Ididbetter.Allthischoicemadeitpossibleformetodobetter.ButIfeltworse.Why?Iwroteawh

34、olebooktotryandexplainthistomyself.ThereasonIfeltworseisthat,withalloftheseoptionsavailable,myexpectationsabouthowgoodapairofjeansshouldbewentup.Ihadverylowexpectations.Ihadnoparticularexpectationswhentheyonlycameinoneflavor.Whentheycamein100flavors,damnit,oneofthemshouldvebeenperfect.AndwhatIgotwas

35、good,butitwasntperfect.AndsoIcomparedwhatIgottowhatIexpected,andwhatIgotwasdisappointingincomparisontowhatIexpected.Addingoptionstopeopleslivescanthelpbutincreasetheexpectationspeoplehaveabouthowgoodthoseoptionswillbe.Andwhatthatsgoingtoproduceislesssatisfactionwithresults,evenwhentheyregoodresults.

36、Nobodyintheworldofmarketingknowsthis.Becauseiftheydid,youwouldntallknowwhatthiswasabout.Thetruthismorelikethis.(Laughter)Thereasonthateverythingwasbetterbackwheneverythingwasworseisthatwheneverythingwasworse,itwasactuallypossibleforpeopletohaveexperiencesthatwereapleasantsurprise.Nowadays,theworldwe

37、livein-weaffluent,industrializedcitizens,withperfectiontheexpectation-thebestyoucaneverhopeforisthatstuffisasgoodasyouexpectittobe.Youwillneverbepleasantlysurprisedbecauseyourexpectations,myexpectations,havegonethroughtheroof.Thesecrettohappiness-thisiswhatyouallcamefor-thesecrettohappinessislowexpe

38、ctations.(Laughter)(Applause)Iwanttosay-justalittleautobiographicalmoment-thatIactuallyammarriedtoawife,andshesreallyquitewonderful.Icouldnthavedonebetter.Ididntsettle.Butsettlingisntalwayssuchabadthing.Finally,oneconsequenceofbuyingabad-fittingpairofjeanswhenthereisonlyonekindtobuyisthatwhenyouared

39、issatisfied,andyouaskwhy,whosresponsible,theanswerisclear.Theworldisresponsible.Whatcouldyoudo?Whentherearehundredsofdifferentstylesofjeansavailable,andyoubuyonethatisdisappointing,andyouaskwhy,whosresponsible?Itisequallyclearthattheanswertothequestionisyou.Youcouldhavedonebetter.Withahundreddiffere

40、ntkindsofjeansondisplay,thereisnoexcuseforfailure.Andsowhenpeoplemakedecisions,andeventhoughtheresultsofthedecisionsaregood,theyfeeldisappointedaboutthem,theyblamethemselves.Clinicaldepressionhasexplodedintheindustrialworldinthelastgeneration.Ibelieveasignificant-nottheonly,butasignificantcontributo

41、rtothisexplosionofdepression,andalsosuicide,isthatpeoplehaveexperiencesthataredisappointingbecausetheirstandardsaresohigh.Andthenwhentheyhavetoexplaintheseexperiencestothemselves,theythinktheyreatfault.Andsothenetresultisthatwedobetteringeneral,objectively,andwefeelworse.Soletmeremindyou.Thisistheof

42、ficialdogma,theonethatwealltaketobetrue,anditsallfalse.Itisnottrue.Theresnoquestionthatsomechoiceisbetterthannone,butitdoesntfollowfromthatthatmorechoiceisbetterthansomechoice.Theressomemagicalamount.Idontknowwhatitis.Imprettyconfidentthatwehavelongsincepassedthepointwhereoptionsimproveourwelfare.Now,asapolicymatter-Imalmostdone-asapolicymatter,thethingtothinkaboutisthis.Whatenablesallofthischoiceinindustrialsocietiesismaterialaffluence.Therearelotsofplacesintheworld,andwehaveheardaboutseveralofthem,wheretheirproblemisnotthattheyhavetoomuchchoice.Theirproblemisthattheyhavetoolittle.Sothe