数理社会学会税制と不公平感课件

1、ASA 08/2013Lost in the Great East Japan Earthquake and Anxiety about the Future:An Analysis of 2011 Survey of the Earthquake Damage and Social Consciousness in Sendai CityYoichi Murase (Rikkyo University, Japan)muraseyo1.Purpose2.Data and Methods3.ResultsBasic AnalysisSEM of Anxiety for Future Life4

2、.Conclusions1. Purpose1.1. Research BackgroundRising Inequality in many countries.Recession after the Great EarthquakeDo Damage and Anxiety for Future Instability associate with Social Status?Economic status and social network have effect?Some disaster studies said damages were large in poor areas.

3、Ex. Hurricane Katrina in the USJapan is relatively equal society, social class, racial, and religious conflicts are not large. 99% of people are Japanese.However, Urban Rural gap is large.I focused comparing the Sendai and rural area.Sendai: Largest city in Tohoku District, population One million.Te

4、rtiary Industry City, no large factory area or labor class poor area.Sendai and most of large cities were not near the ocean.Population of the Coast area was 0.5% in Sendai. now 0%. Not a large Tsunami Damage.However many people have effect from the disaster. Damage of property is not small.1.2.Purp

5、ose of this studyWhat is the determinants ofDamage of Property by the EarthquakeAnxiety (Future life, Future Income) HypothesesEconomic status (economic resource)Social network (relational resource, Social capital)Education (informational resource, Cultural capital)Working in Large Company very impo

6、rtant in Japan2.Data and Methods Citizens Consciousness Survey on Their Life and Disaster Prevention in Sendai and Senhoku by Rikkyo University and Tohoku UniversitySendai in November 2011Sample size 2100 and 1532 answers (73% response rate) Sendai panel survey in 2012 mail survey for 1532, 977 answ

7、ersSenhoku area (rural near Sendai) in November 2012. mail survey Sample size was 2006 and 1341 answers (67% response rate). Not using research companies. Aided by Rikkyo University Special Focus Fund for Promoting Research (Rikkyo SFR)We hired 70 students and direct managed the surveySendai from To

8、hoku UniversityCentral District of SendaiTsunami area now population 03.Results3.1.Basic Analysis of Damage and AnxietyDamage More than 40% answered less than $1000 US. 20% answered more than $10,000 US. Largest in old residential area (near the ocean).Anxeity in 2011 Sendai 70% answered Yes. Strong

9、er in 2012 and Senhoku (rural area). No relation with the areas.Relational Resource (Social network with influential people)Closeness with influential people. Important for measuring peoples political power and background.Old traditional people have more relations. Maybe not a new urban residents.3.

10、2.Cause of Anxiety and Damage Structural Equation Model by SPSS AMOSFinal Dependent Variable :Factor of Anxiety Right sides of Figures Anxiety on Future Life Anxiety on Future IncomeDamage Amount (JP Yen)Independent Variables : Age, Education (years), Relational Resource, Property possession (Econom

11、ic status; possession of fourteen items, house, PC, DVD player, etc. and used the total number of items), Household Income, etc. I omitted income because it is similar with property.For MaleCause of the anxiety on future lifeProperty possession (economic status) (-.18)Income (-.17)Residence year rat

12、e (.18)Organization SizeEducationRelational resource had indirect effectsAmount of loss, Self employment dummy had no effectCause of DamageAgeno relationship with property possession, education, etc.For FemaleCause of DamageProperty possession Relational resourceResidence year rate Self employment d

13、ummyHome owner dummyCause of the anxiety on future lifeProperty possession (economic status) (-.13)Income (-.19)Education (-.14)Organization SizeRelational resource no effectAmount of loss, Self employment dummy had no effect4.ConclusionA new finding is the absence of a relationship between damage a

14、mount and economic status or education (for Male).Main Cause of Damage was Age.Old house, old area.Another finding is the relationship between anxiety and and economic status or relational resource.Cause of the anxiety on future lifeRelational resource (political power or connection)Economic StatusO

15、rganization sizeAge Anxiety (The Sense of Future Instability) is large among small power, poor, old people and female.What is the interpretation of network effect?Distance for power centralIndicator of New and Old residentIndicator of hidden class: Elite Tokyo based people and Local peopleSocial network is very important in current Japan (post industrialized mobilized society).Many social mobility, but existence of local people not moved to other area.Social stratif