2020年第四季度家庭债务和信贷报告

1、Household Debt and Credit Developments in 2020Q41Aggregate household debt balances increased by $206 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020, a 1.4% rise from 2020Q3, and now stand at $14.56 trillion. Balances are $414 billion higher than at the end of 2019.BalancesMortgage balances shown on consumer

2、credit reports surpassed $10 trillion in the 4th quarter, and stood at $10.04 trillion at the end of December, a $182 billion increase from 2020Q3. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) saw a $13 billion decline, the 16th consecutive decrease since 2016Q4, bringing the outstanding balance

3、to $349 billion. Credit card balances increased in the fourth quarter, by $12 billion, a modest seasonal increase following the sharp $76 billion contraction in the second quarter and$10 billion decrease in the third. Credit card balances are $108 billion lower than they had been at the end of 2019,

4、 the largest yearly decline seen since the series begins in 1999, consistent with continued weakness in consumer spending as well as paydowns by card holders. Auto loan balances increased by $14 billion in the fourth quarter. Student loan balances increased by $9 billion. In total, non- housing bala

5、nces increased by $37 billion, but remain $31 billion below the 2019Q4 levels.OriginationsNew extensions of credit were substantial in 2020Q4, with a record high level of newly originated mortgages and auto loans. Mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgage balances on consumer cr

6、edit reports and which include refinances, were at $1.2 trillion, surpassing in nominal terms the volumes seen during the historic refinance boom in 2003Q3. Auto loan originations, which includes both loans and leases, were down slightly from the record high seen in 2020Q3 but were at the second hig

7、hest level for the series, at $162 billion. In contrast, both HELOC and credit cards saw declines in aggregate credit limits.Aggregate credit limits on credit cards declined by $10 billion, continuing the declines of $31 billion in the third quarter and $53 billion during the second. Aggregate credi

8、t limits on HELOC accounts declined by $14 billion.Median mortgage origination credit scores remained roughly stable at a high level, with the median credit score of newly originated mortgages at 786, reflecting a high share of refinances. The median credit score on newly originated auto loans incre

9、ased, from 712 to 717.Delinquency & Public RecordsAggregate delinquency rates have continued to decline in the fourth quarter and continuing what was seen in the second and third, reflecting an uptake in forbearances (provided by both the CARES Act and voluntarily offered by lenders), which protect

10、borrowers credit records from the reporting of skipped or deferred payments. As of late December, 3.2% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the third quarter, and 1.6 percentage points lower than the rate observed in the fourth quarter of 2019 an

11、d before the Covid pandemic hit the United States. Of the $462 billion of debt that is delinquent, $349 billion is seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”, which includes some debts that have been removed from lenders books but upon which they continue to attempt collect

12、ion).The uptake in forbearances continues to be visible in the delinquency transition rates for mortgages. The share of mortgages that transitioned to early delinquency ticked down to a low 0.4%, as the option to enter forbearance remained. Meanwhile, 54% of loans in early delinquency transitioned t

13、o current. Foreclosures remain on pause for most loans due to the CARES-provisioned moratorium, and the fourth quarter saw only 14,000 new foreclosure starts.Delinquency rates by product continued to decline, and new transitions into early delinquency declined across the board, continuing to reflect

14、 the various borrower assistance programs available. The share of student loans that transitioned to delinquency continue to fall, as the majority of outstanding federal student loans are covered by CARES Act administrative forbearances. With federally-backed mortgages also eligible for forbearances

15、, the share of mortgages that transitioned into delinquency fell to 2% (annualized) in the fourth quarter, down one and a half percentage points since the fourth quarter of 2019. Auto loans and credit cards also showed continued declines in their delinquency transition rates, reflecting the impact o

16、f government stimulus programs and bank- offered forbearance options for troubled borrowers.About 121,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in 2020Q4, a decline from the previous quarter and a new historical low. The share of consumers with a collection also declined

17、sharply.Housing DebtThere was $1.2 trillion in newly originated mortgage debt in 2020Q4.This report is based on the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, which is constructed from an anonymized, nationally representative random sample drawn from Equifax credit report data. For details on the data set

18、and the measures reported here, see the data dictionary available at the end of this report. Please contact JoelleAbout 30,000 individuals had a new foreclosure notation added to their credit reports during the second half of 2020, by far the lowest six months we have seen since the beginning of our

19、 series in 1999.Student LoansOutstanding student loan debt stood at $1.56 trillion in the fourth quarter, a $9 billion increase from the third quarter.About 6.5% of aggregate student debt was 90+ days delinquent or in default in 2020Q4.2 The lower level of student debt delinquency reflects a Departm

20、ent of Education decision to report current status on loans eligible for CARES Act forbearances.Account Closings, Credit Inquiries and Collection AccountsThe number of credit inquiries within the past six months an indicator of consumer credit demand was at 120 million, a modest decline from the pre

21、vious quarter. Inquiries have been subdued since the second quarter of 2020 when the large effects of the pandemic hit the US.Account openings declined by 5 million accounts to 190 million following larger drops in the second and third quarters of 2020.As explained in HYPERLINK /2012/03/grading-stud

22、ent-loans.html a 2012 report, delinquency rates for student loans are likely to understate effective delinquency rates because about half of these loans are currently in deferment, in grace periods or in forbearance and therefore temporarily not in the repayment cycle. This implies that among loans

23、in the repayment cycle delinquencyFebruary 2021FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORKRESEARCH AND STATISTICS MICROECONOMIC STUDIESTable of ContentsNATIONAL CHARTS HYPERLINK l _TOC_250022 Total Debt Balance and its Composition. 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 Number of Accounts by Loan Type. 4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_2

24、50020 Total Number of New and Closed Accounts and Inquiries. 5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 Mortgage Originations by Credit Score. 6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 Credit Score at Origination: Mortgages. 7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Auto Loan Originations by Credit Score. 8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Credit Score at

25、Origination: Auto Loans. 9 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Credit Limit and Balance for Credit Cards and HE Revolving 10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Total Balance by Delinquency Status 11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type. 12Flow into Early Delinquency (30+) by Loan Typ

26、e. 13Flow into Serious Delinquency (90+) by Loan Type. 14Quarterly Transition Rates for Current Mortgage Accounts 15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Quarterly Transition Rates for 30-60 Day Late Mortgage Accounts 16Number of Consumers with New Foreclosures and Bankruptcies 17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Third P

27、arty Collections. 18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 SELECT CHARTS BY AGE HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Total Debt Balance By Age. 20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Debt Share by Product Type and Age (2020Q4) 21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Auto Loan Originations by Age. 22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Mortgage Originations by Ag

28、e. 23Quarterly Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+) by Age. 24Quarterly Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+) for Mortgages by Age. 25Quarterly Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+) for Auto Loans by Age. 26Quarterly Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+) for Credit Cards by Age. 27Q

29、uarterly Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+) for Student Loans by Age. 28 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 New Foreclosures by Age. 29 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 New Bankruptcies by Age. 30 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 CHARTS BY SELECT STATE HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Total Debt Balance Per Capita by State. 32Com

30、position of Debt Balance per Capita* by State (2020Q4) 33Delinquency Status of Debt Balance per Capita* by State (2020Q4) 34 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Percent of Balance 90+ Days Late by State. 35 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Percent of Mortgage Debt 90+ Days Late by State 36Quarterly Transition Rates into

31、 30+ Days Late by State. 37Quarterly Transition Rates into 90+ Days Late by State 38Percent of Consumers with New Foreclosures by State 39Percent of Consumers with New Bankruptcies by State 401Page Left Blank IntentionallyNATIONAL CHARTSTotal Debt Balance and its CompositionTrillions of DollarsMortg

32、ageHE RevolvingAuto LoanCredit CardStudent LoanOther152020Q4 Total: $14.56 Trillion2020Q3 Total: $14.35 Trillion1296(3%)(11%)(6%)(9%)(2%)(69%)30 Number of Accounts by Loan TypeMillionsMillions250500200Credit Card400150Auto Loan (Left Axis)30010050Mortgage (Left Axis)HE Revolving (Left Axis)20010000

33、Total Number of New and Closed Accounts and InquiriesMillions 400350Number of Accounts Closed within 12 MonthsMillions40035030030025025020020015015010050Number of Inquiries within 6 Months Number of Accounts Opened within 12 Months1005000 Mortgage Originations by Credit Score*Billions of DollarsBill

34、ions of Dollars1,4001,4001,200620620-659660-719720-759760+1,2001,0001,00080080060060040040020020000Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax* Credit Score is Equifax Riskscore 3.0Credit Score at Origination: Mortgages*ScoreScore80050th percentile80075075070065025th percentile10th percentile

35、700650600600550550500500Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax* Credit Score is Equifax Riskscore 3.0; mortgages include first-liens only.Auto Loan Originations by Credit Score*Billions of DollarsBillions of Dollars200620620-659660-719720-759760+2001601601201208080404000Score 800Credit S

36、core at Origination: Auto Loans*Score80075075070065060050th percentile25th percentile10th percentile700650600550550500500Credit Limit and Balance for Credit Cards and HE RevolvingTrillions of DollarsTrillions of Dollars44HELOC BalanceCC BalanceCC LimitHELOC Limit33221100Percent14Total Balance by Del

37、inquency StatusSeverely Derogatory120+ days late90 days late60 days late30 days latePercent14121210108866442200Percent 15Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan TypePercent15Credit CardStudent LoanMortgage1010Auto Loan55HE Revolving00Transition into Delinquency (30+) by Loan TypePercent of Ba

38、lance 16Percent of Balance16141412Student Loan 1210108Auto Loan 86Credit Card 64Mortgage4HE Revolving2200Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+)Percent of Balance12by Loan TypePercent of Balance1210Student Loan 10886Mortgage46Credit Card4Auto Loan22HE Revolving00Quarterly Transition Rates for Curr

39、ent MortgagePercent3.5AccountsPercent3.53.0To 30-60 days late3.02.52.52.02.01.51.51.0To 90+ days late1.00.50.50.00.0Quarterly Transition Rates for 30-60 Day Late Mortgage AccountsPercentPercent7070606050To 90+ days late 50404030302020To Current101000Number of Consumers with New ForeclosuresThousands

40、1,200and BankruptciesThousands1,200ForeclosuresBankruptcies90090060060030030000Percent1615141312111098Third Party CollectionsPercent of consumers with collection(Left Axis)Average collection amount per person with collection (Right Axis)Dollars1,6001,5001,4001,3001,2001,1001,0009007800SELECT CHARTS

41、BY AGETrillions of DollarsTotal Debt Balance by AgeTrillions of Dollars151518-2930-3940-4950-5960-6970+121299663300100%Debt Share by Product Type and Age (2020 Q4)Auto LoansCredit CardMortgageHELOCStudent LoansOther80%60%40%20%0%18-2930-3940-4950-5960-6970+Auto Loan Originations by AgeBillions of Do

42、llarsBillions of Dollars20018018-2930-3940-4950-5960-6970+200180160160140140120120100100808060604040202000Mortgage Originations by AgeBillions of DollarsBillions of Dollars1,40018-2930-3940-4950-5960-6970+1,4001,2001,2001,0001,00080080060060040040020020000Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+)Per

43、cent of Balance 109by Age30-39Percent of Balance109887650-59740-4965418-293270+5460-69321100Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+) forPercent of Balance 12Mortgages by AgePercent of Balance121018-291030-39840-49866460-69470+250-59200Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+) forPercent of Balance

44、6Auto Loans by AgePercent of Balance6518-294530-394350-592340-49260-691170+00Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+) forPercent of Balance 15Credit Cards by AgePercent of Balance151218-29930-3950-5940-49129670+660-693300Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+) forPercent of Balance 1512Student Lo

45、ans by Age40-4930-39Percent of Balance1512950+18-299663300 Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/EquifaxNote: 4 Quarter Moving Sum.Age is defined as the current year minus the birthyear of the borrower.Age groups are re-defined each yearThousandsNew Foreclosures By AgeThousands60018-2930-3940-4

46、950-5960-6970+60050050040040030030020020010010000 Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/EquifaxNote: 4 Quarter Moving Sum. Age is defined as the current year minus the birthyear of the borrower. Age groups are re-defined each year. Balances may not add up to totals due to a small number of indi

47、viduals with unknown birthyears.ThousandsNew Bankruptcies By AgeThousands1,00018-2930-3940-4950-5960-6970+1,00080080060060040040020020000Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/EquifaxNote: 4 Quarter Moving Sum. Age is defined as the current year minus the birthyear of the borrower. Age groups ar

48、e re-defined each year. Balances may not add up to totals due to a small number of individuals with unknown birthyears.CHARTS BY SELECT STATETotal Debt Balance per Capita* by StateThousands of Dollars100Thousands of Dollars100National AverageFLILMINJNVTXCA80OHNY 80PAAZNVAZCA60NJ 60MINY4040TXPA2020Co

49、mposition of Debt Balance per Capita*Thousands of Dollars 80by State (2020 Q4)Thousands of DollarsMortgageHE RevolvingAuto LoanCredit CardStudent LoanOther6040200AZCAFLILMINJNVNYOHPATXUSDelinquency Status of Debt Balance per Capita*Thousands of Dollars 80by State (2020 Q4)Thousands of Dollars80Curre

50、nt30-day late60-day late90-day late120-day lateSeverely Derogatory6060404020200AZCAFLILMINJNVNYOHPA0TXUSPercent of Balance 90+ Days Late by StatePercentPercent2424National AverageFL21ILMI 21NJNVNV18TXCA 18OHNYPAAZ151512FL 12CA9NY 966TX3PA 300Percent of Mortgage Debt 90+ Days Late by StatePercentPerc

51、ent2727National AverageFL24ILMI 24NJNV21TXCAFL 21OHNYPAAZ18NV 181515AZ12CA 129966NY33PA00Quarterly Transition Rates into 30+ Days Late byPercent of Balance 30National AverageFLILMIState*Percent of Balance3025NJNV 25TXCAOHNYPAAZNV202015AZ 15CA10FL 105PA 500 Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/

52、Equifax Note: *Four Quarter Moving Sum, Rates from Current to 30+ Days Delinquent, All Accounts. Revised May 2017.Quarterly Transition Rates into 90+ Days Late byPercent of Balance 25National AverageFLILMINJNVState*Percent of Balance2520TXCA 20OHNYNVPAAZ15AZ 1510CA 10FL5500Source: New York Fed Consu

53、mer Credit Panel/EquifaxNote: *Four Quarter Moving Sum, Rates from Current and up to 60 Days Delinquent to 90+ Days Delinquent, All Accounts. Revised May 2017.Percent of Consumers* with New Foreclosures byPercent1.0National AverageFL ILMINJNVStatePercent1.00.8TXCAOHNYNVPAAZ0.80.60.60.40.2FLCAAZMI0.4

54、0.2NY0.00.0 Percent of Consumers* with New Bankruptcies byPercent 0.80.6National AverageFLILMINJNVTXCAOHNYPAAZStateNVPercent0.80.60.40.40.20.2TX0.00.0 Data DictionaryThe FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel consists of detailed Equifax credit-report data for a unique longitudinal quarterly panel of individua

55、ls and households from 1999 to 2019 HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 1. The panel is a nationally representative 5% random sample of all individuals with a social security number and a credit report (usually aged 19 and over). We also sampled all other individuals living at the same address as the primary sam

56、ple members, allowing us to track household-level credit and debt for a random sample of US households. The resulting database includes approximately 44 million individuals in each quarter. More details regarding the sample design can be found in Lee and van der Klaau HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 w (2010)

57、.2 A comprehensive overview of the specific content of consumer credit reports is provided in Avery, Calem, Canner HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 and Bostic (2003).3The credit report data in our panel primarily includes information on accounts that have been reported by the creditor within 3 months of the d

58、ate that the credit records were drawn each quarter. Thus, accounts that are not currently reported on are excluded. Such accounts may be closed accounts with zero balances, dormant or inactive accounts with no balance, or accounts that when last reported had a positive balance. The latter accounts

59、include accounts that were either subsequently sold, transferred, or paid off as well as accounts, particularly derogatory accounts, that are still outstanding but on which the lender has ceased reporting. According to Avery et al (2003), the latter group of noncurrently reporting accounts, with pos

60、itive balances when last reported, accounted for approximately 8% of all credit accounts in their sample. For the vast majority of these accounts, and particularly for mortgage and installment loans, additional analysis suggested they had been closed (with zero balance) or transferred. HYPERLINK l _