地缘断供下国际原油市场展望

1、PART 1 t ,*,g j9T0Z ST0ZTT0600800S00t00 100Z ZOOM IOOZ OOOE866166S66T0 66TRP+fBsk8iIEJ:3-srtgiD/*19Xm& .-.1979-05130.7-0.21979-111417.8-0.3228.4-1.5658.4-0.51243.5*0.1- : - a 2002-112117.5-5.1” :. .2008-08a2007-418.8-112007-.1631.1+0.7200&6645.2-132011-01327.7-0.72014-07315.8+2.32017-017.8-172017-09

2、312.7-0.62017-11-.- - .1973-1041979-1021979-012316-3315.1+0.2Percentage Oil Price Increase in 19 Market Disruptions vs. Price Increase Predicted by Key Market CharacteristicsPrice Change (%$S&il n&ig21;Wt.in;ki7oxH/ B IO ?,20018O16014012060400.,y Y. m :,. . ,.Q2022/6/301401201008060402002022/6/30106

3、B1&3tsJJ fLT1&.1fSfi?iB91iiiiSi$:Afi8-:x1fi/ B l102101+1105.7109%117115+215284.B35.B14B.0746%2626032.516.531.5650%9012.70.43.712.3925%171B-118.7D.61.718.12B3%i435440-5465.314.430.3450.9210P272269+3280.9B.58.9272.410596g120128 (R)-8182.95.762.9177.21104%x10551050+5110033.745.01066.3134%308303+5316.8s

4、.3a.gso7.5959624612459 (R)+22668.3B1.8207.325B6.5253%253+37B1772+22gs2Ericas25.4125.5322.5622.8224.3824.8325.0524.2824.7824.9925.6925.7625.31aI which US20.6020.5818.3518.6020.1720.3520.56y9.9320.3020.5721.1921.2f20.82Europe14.3114.3J12.4311.9112.6413.8513.9D13.0813.1013.0614.2g14.151s.ssAsia Pacific

5、8.017.937.147.677.047.117.827.417.907.227.257.937.57Total OECD47.7347.7842.1342.4044.0545.7946.7744.7Y4S.7747.2347.8446.53China13.1613.7113.8614.1815.0814.9515.5414.9414.6715.1615.4215.9715.31India4.934.994.514.984.504.595.024.775.185.015.395.11Other Asia8.919.068.13B.568.988.348.628.639.099.598.938

6、.959.14Latin America6.536.595.906.176.086.386.266.236.326.256.536.426.38Middle East8.138.207.457.757.528.067.857.798.067,778.328.098.06Africa4.324.344.054.354.014.114.424.224.514.154.234.554.36Russia3.553.573.393.653.423.633.763.613.673.283.453.543.48Other Eurasia1.211.191.071.231.241.D91.281.211.22

7、1.151.D11.241.15Other Europe0.740.760.7D0.780.720.730.790.750.790.710.730.800.76Total NDnOECD51.4752.4249.0651.6551.5551.8753.5452.1653.5052.9253.6254.9453.75k sxt%at.wT?c,bg : - z” . :s r. .;.n:Americas24.0225.8224.7124.1125.1925.2226.1725.1825.8926.3126. 9627.4726.66aI which GIS16. 6618.4 717.6116

8、.631 7.9317.85J 8.5B17.751B.2618.9419.2 7J 9.6719.04Europe3.843 703.893 953.513.813 783 763 703.593 794.133.80Asia Pacific0.410.520.520.510.450.550.520.510.490.540.560.540.53Total OECD28.2730.0429.1328.5820.1529.5830.4729.4530.0730.4431.3032.1330.99China3.984.054.154.304.344.334.264.314.494.414.354.

9、434.42India0.860.820.780.780.770.770.770.770.770.780.800.830.79Other Asia2.762.722.512.512.452.332.352.412.382.392.372.362.38Latin America5.796.086.035.945.976.095.835.966.156.286,216.436.27Middle East3.193,193.193.223.233.243.273.243.293.363.383.393.36uss ia11.5211.6110.5910.4710.7410.8111.1710.801

10、1.3310.4010.4010.4010.6ther Eurdsia3.08.07.922.962. 92.793.092.933.02.933.17.223.10Other Europe0.120.120.120.120.110.110.110.110.110.110.100.100.10Total Mon-OECD32.8033.1831.7131.8631.8531.7832.1731.8732.9131.9732.0932.4732.36Total hon-OPEC production61.0763.2360.8460.2461.0061.3662.6461.3262.9862.4

11、163.4064.6063.35Processing gains2.342.362.152.282.282.282.282.282.392.392.392.392.39Total Mon-OPEC liquidsprciduction63.4165.5962.9962.5263.2863.6464.9263.6065.3764.8065.7967.0065.74OPEC NGL *non-conventional oils5.295.215.175.315.305.265.265.285.345.38i415.435.39.e . (secondary sources)31.3429.3725

12、.7225.1825.5726.9227.7126.3528.36Total liquids production100.05100.1793.8793.0194.1595.8297.8995.2399.08miscellaneous0.84-0.032.69-1.04-1.45-1.83-2.42-1.69-0.20Commercial2,8732,8943,03B2,9182,8752,7552,6472,6472,6261 5411 541 4Total4,4254,4294,5794,4644,39B4,2684,1304,13D4,D65Oilon-water1,05B1,D331,

13、14B1,1381,1311,1691,2021,2D21,225Commercial onland stocks606968666359585758SPR323634353332323232Total931051021019691908990OPEC crude oil productionBalance (stock change andBB6%ia&pTt8A98i4z?. 60?rB9eIII Fi i- - nc-1.-1.JI0.3Js0.29-16.9%-2.0S-22.096-&4S6 2.9ht7387.177J93 788 J95 14318J2B1 J6J0 207749

14、61782321443J93 M 195175T8J 26115132097406179252146CJ93 776195175J*81 26113752D6T400170672t48J93 778195175JB0 261137520774001172770j93 776t95 175160261137520495281861722073J93 776195175JOO 26112452051528105982.:3J93 77B1951751812611245206952888 22305193776J95 1751812B1 J245 206252818974225J93 776 J95

15、 175 J8J 26112452062528T814317lIsz21766Z1d8J931SS77684S195IN175J7518J181261201245T140206221Z1528528*-1.096-2.6%.496 0.2f60.6%iz.g?.l&0.2360.696-0.29t0.2%0.2%0.2461.1962.1h0.55-0.596-ss.996-31.89-1.8964.36-a.796 40)t-1.0/60.39624t 1Z7632958030622822 15424S41405S67007s7 4321Z79342582320214122154845410

16、65903141s2s 46011Z703425823202g522 1546454140590272feed 41011Z7B34258233022812215464541405902581x7 4JO11288342581S30 ZJ622 1562454685902503374t011ZRI34258135025022 1562454685982501Z274J0241J298 34258833024722 1582454685902501z2759324129S 34258133025422 1504sS408818250122756524112913258133020212215864546882225012275b5112443425833025212215884S4688Z225012S131j11Z88z26 6S1 Z2 AZ 1Z21686d46 !8ZZ2S0 J107 4J1-4.3%*-7.0J63JJ6-9.8!6-3.9%-2*.26)21.2J60.2960.8)60.29L0.2%-0.1I61.8960.49P.1I60.8J