财政学罗森第九版英文课件：Chap008 Cost-Benefit Analysis

1、CHAPTER 8Cost-Benefit AnalysisCopyright 2010 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin8-2Projecting Present Dollars into the FutureR0 = $1000R1 = $1000*(1+.01) = $1010R2 = $1010*(1+.01) = $1020.10R2 = $1000*(1+.01)2 = $1020.10RT = R0*(1+r)T 8-3Projecting Future Dollars

2、 into the PresentR0 = $1000R1 = $1000*(1+.01) = $1010R2 = $1010*(1+.01) = $1020.10R2 = $1000*(1+.01)2 = $1020.10RT = R0*(1+r)T R0 = RT/(1+r)T Present Valuediscount ratediscount factor8-4Present Value of a Stream of MoneyPVRRrRrRrTT0122111()().()8-5InflationPVRRrRrRrTTTT 012222111111111()()()()() ().

3、()() ()8-6Private Sector Project EvaluationTTTrCBrCBrCBCBPV)1 (.)1 (12332211Annual Net ReturnPVYearR&DAdvertisingR =R&DAdvertising0$1,000-$1,0000$150$200160000.011281652000.03869835501,2000.0546370.0710-21AdmissiblePreferablePresent Value Criteria8-7Internal Rate of Return0)1 (.)1 (12332211T

4、TTCBCBCBCBPVProjectYear 0Year 1ProfitPVX-$100$11010%$43.77Y-$1,000$1,0808%$2018.878-8Benefit-Cost RatioTTrBrBrBBB)1 (.)1 (12210TTrCrCrCCC)1 (.)1 (12210Benefit-cost ratio = B/C8-9Problems with the Benefit-Cost RatioMethodBCB/CI$250$1002.5II$200$1002.0I: Subtract $40 mistake from B$210$1002.1I: Add $4

5、0 mistake to C$250$1401.798-10Discount Rate for Government Projects Returns in Private Sector Social Discount Rate Paternalism Market Inefficiency Discounting and the Economics of Climate Change Government Discounting in Practice8-11Valuing Public Benefits and Costs Market Prices Adjusted Market Pri

6、ces Shadow price Monopoly Taxes Unemployment Consumer SurplusPounds of avocados per yearPrice per pound of avocadosDaSadA0Sa$1.35$2.89bcgA1e8-12Inferences from Economic Behavior The Value of Time The Value of Life Lost earnings Probability of death8-13Valuing Intangibles Subverting cost-benefit exer

7、cises Reveal limits on intangibles Cost-effectiveness analysis8-14Games Cost-Benefit Analysts Play The Chain-Reaction Game The Labor Game The Double-Counting Game8-15Distributional Considerations Hicks-Kaldor Criterion a project should be undertaken if it has positive net present value, regardless o

8、f distributional consequences Government costlessly corrects any undesirable distributional aspects Weighted benefits8-16UncertaintyProjectBenefitProbabilityEVX$1,0001.00$1,000Y00.50$1,000$2,0000.50Certainty Equivalent8-17Are Reductions in Class Size Worth It? Discount rate Costs Benefits The Bottom Line and Evaluation8-18Use (and Nonuse) by Government Using Cost-Benefit Analysis Not Using Cost-Benefit Analysis Clean Air Act Endangered Species Act Food, Drug, and Cosm