宏观经济学课件 Chap08

1、Money Growth and Inflation货币增长与通货膨胀货币增长与通货膨胀Chapter 8uBy the end of this chapter, we should understand:u why inflation results from rapid growth in the money supply.为什么货币供给迅速增长引起通货膨胀？为什么货币供给迅速增长引起通货膨胀？u the meaning of the classical dichotomy and monetary neutrality.古典二分法与货币中性的含义。古典二分法与货币中性的含义。u why

2、some countries print so much money that they experience hyperinflation.为什么一些国家发行了如此为什么一些国家发行了如此多的货币，以致它们经历了超速通货膨胀？多的货币，以致它们经历了超速通货膨胀？u how the nominal interest rate responds to the inflation rate.名义利率如何对通货膨胀作出反应？名义利率如何对通货膨胀作出反应？u the various costs that inflation imposes on society.通通货膨胀带给社会的各种成本。货膨胀

3、带给社会的各种成本。The Meaning of Money货币货币的含义的含义uMoney is the set of assets in an economy that people regularly use to buy goods and services from other people. 货币货币是经济中人们经常用来向其他人购是经济中人们经常用来向其他人购买物品与劳务的资产。买物品与劳务的资产。THE CLASSICAL THEORY OF INFLATION古典古典通货膨胀理论通货膨胀理论uInflation is an increase in the overall lev

4、el of prices. 通货膨胀是总体物价水平的上升。通货膨胀是总体物价水平的上升。uHyperinflation is an extraordinarily high rate of inflation. 超速通货膨胀是极高的通货膨胀率。超速通货膨胀是极高的通货膨胀率。THE CLASSICAL THEORY OF INFLATIONuInflation: Historical AspectsOver the past 60 years, prices have risen on average about 5 percent per year.Deflation, meaning de

5、creasing average prices, occurred in the U.S. in the nineteenth century.Hyperinflation refers to high rates of inflation such as Germany experienced in the 1920s.古典古典通货膨胀理论通货膨胀理论u通货膨胀通货膨胀: 历史的角度历史的角度在过去的在过去的60年间，物价平均每年上升年间，物价平均每年上升5左右。左右。通货紧缩通货紧缩平均物价水平的降低，在平均物价水平的降低，在19世纪的美国发生过这种情况。世纪的美国发生过这种情况。超速通货

6、膨胀超速通货膨胀极高的通货膨胀率，极高的通货膨胀率，20世纪世纪20年代德国发生过这种情况。年代德国发生过这种情况。Inflation: Historical Aspects通货膨胀通货膨胀: 历史的角度历史的角度uIn the 1970s prices rose by 7 percent per year. 在在20世纪世纪70年代，物价每年上升年代，物价每年上升7。uDuring the 1990s, prices rose at an average rate of 2 percent per year. 在在20世纪世纪90年代，物价平均每年上升年代，物价平均每年上升2。The Cla

7、ssical Theory of InflationuThe quantity theory of money is used to explain the long-run determinants of the price level and the inflation rate.uInflation is an economy-wide phenomenon that concerns the value of the economys medium of exchange.uWhen the overall price level rises, the value of money f

8、alls.古典通货膨胀理论古典通货膨胀理论u货币数量论货币数量论 被用来解释物价水平和通被用来解释物价水平和通货膨胀率的长期决定因素。货膨胀率的长期决定因素。u通货膨胀是一种广泛的经济现象，它通货膨胀是一种广泛的经济现象，它涉及到的是经济中交换媒介的价值。涉及到的是经济中交换媒介的价值。u当总体物价水平上升时，货币的价值当总体物价水平上升时，货币的价值降低。降低。Money Supply, Money Demand, and Monetary EquilibriumuThe money supply is a policy variable that is controlled by the

9、Fed.uThrough instruments such as open-market operations, the Fed directly controls the quantity of money supplied.货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡u货币供给量货币供给量是美联储控制的政策变量是美联储控制的政策变量。u通过比如公开市场活动等手段，美联储直接通过比如公开市场活动等手段，美联储直接控制货币的供给量。控制货币的供给量。Money Supply, Money Demand, and Monetary Equilibrium货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡货

10、币供给、货币需求与货币均衡Money demand has several determinants, including interest rates and the average level of prices in the economy.货币需求货币需求有几个决定因素，包括利率和经有几个决定因素，包括利率和经济中的平均物价水平。济中的平均物价水平。uPeople hold money because it is the medium of exchange. 人们持有货币是因为它是交换媒介。人们持有货币是因为它是交换媒介。uThe amount of money people cho

11、ose to hold depends on the prices of goods and services. 人们选择持有的货币量决定于物品与劳务的人们选择持有的货币量决定于物品与劳务的价格。价格。Money Supply, Money Demand, and Monetary Equilibrium货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡Money Supply, Money Demand, and Monetary Equilibrium货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡In the long run, the overall level of p

12、rices adjusts to the level at which the demand for money equals the supply.在长期中，物价总水平调整到货币需求在长期中，物价总水平调整到货币需求等于供给的水平。等于供给的水平。Figure 1 Money Supply, Money Demand, and the Equilibrium Price LevelQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoney, 1/PPrice Level, PQuantity fixedby the FedMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low

13、)1/21/43/411.3324Equilibriumvalue ofmoneyEquilibriumprice levelMoneydemandA美联储固定的美联储固定的货币量货币量 货币量货币量 货币货币 价值价值 (1/P)物价物价水平水平 (P)A货币供给货币供给01(低低)(高高)(高高)(低低)1/21/43/411.3324货币需求货币需求图图1. 货币供给、货币需求与均衡的物价水平货币供给、货币需求与均衡的物价水平均衡的货币价值均衡的货币价值均衡的物价水平均衡的物价水平Figure 2 The Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofM

14、oneyValue ofMoney, 1/PPrice Level, PMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M2MS22. . . . decreasesthe value ofmoney . . .3. . . . andincreasesthe pricelevel.1. An increasein the moneysupply . . .AB货币量货币量 货币货币价值价值 (1/P)物价物价水平水平 (P)AMS101(低低)(高高)(高高)(低低)1/21/43/411.3324货币货币 需求需求图图2. 货

15、币供给增加的效果货币供给增加的效果M1MS21.货币供给货币供给增加增加.2. 货币价值下降货币价值下降3. 以及物价以及物价 水平上升水平上升M2BThe Quantity Theory of MoneyuHow the price level is determined and why it might change over time is called the quantity theory of money.uThe quantity of money available in the economy determines the value of money.uThe primar

16、y cause of inflation is the growth in the quantity of money.货币数量论货币数量论u对物价水平如何决定以及为什么它一直对物价水平如何决定以及为什么它一直在变的解释被称为在变的解释被称为货币数量论。货币数量论。u经济中所得到的货币量决定了货币的价值。经济中所得到的货币量决定了货币的价值。u货币量增长是通货膨胀的主要原因。货币量增长是通货膨胀的主要原因。The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary Neutrality古典二分法与货币中性古典二分法与货币中性uNominal variables are varia

17、bles measured in monetary units. 名义变量名义变量按货币单位衡量的变量。按货币单位衡量的变量。uReal variables are variables measured in physical units. 实际变量实际变量按实物单位衡量的变量。按实物单位衡量的变量。The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary NeutralityuAccording to Hume and others, real economic variables do not change with changes in the money supply.

18、uAccording to the classical dichotomy, different forces influence real and nominal variables.uChanges in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables.古典二分法与货币中性古典二分法与货币中性u根据休谟和其他学者的观点，实际经济根据休谟和其他学者的观点，实际经济变量不随着货币供給量的变化而变化。变量不随着货币供給量的变化而变化。u根据古典二分法，影响实际变量和名义变根据古典二分法，影响实际变量和名义变量的因素

19、是不同的。量的因素是不同的。u货币供给变动影响名义变量而不影响实货币供给变动影响名义变量而不影响实际变量。际变量。The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary Neutrality古典二分法与货币中性古典二分法与货币中性The irrelevance of monetary changes for real variables is called monetary neutrality.货币中性货币中性认为货币变动并不影响认为货币变动并不影响实际变量的观点。实际变量的观点。Velocity and the Quantity Equation货币流通速度与货币数量论方

20、程式货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式The velocity of money refers to the speed at which the typical dollar bill travels around the economy from wallet to wallet.货币流通速度货币流通速度在经济中普通一美元从在经济中普通一美元从钱包到钱包之间流动的速度。钱包到钱包之间流动的速度。Velocity and the Quantity Equation货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式V = (P Y)/MWhere 等式中：等式中： V = velocit

21、y 货币流通速度货币流通速度P = the price level 价格水平价格水平Y = the quantity of output 产量产量M = the quantity of money 货币数量货币数量Velocity and the Quantity Equation货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式uRewriting the equation gives the quantity equation: 重新整理，得到重新整理，得到货币数量论方程式货币数量论方程式M V = P YVelocity and the Quantity Equation货币流

22、通速度与货币数量论方程式货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式The quantity equation relates the quantity of money (M) to the nominal value of output (P Y).货币数量论方程式货币数量论方程式把货币数量（把货币数量（ M ）与产量的名义价值与产量的名义价值(P Y)联系起来了联系起来了Velocity and the Quantity EquationuThe quantity equation shows that an increase in the quantity of money in an econom

23、y must be reflected in one of three other variables:uthe price level must rise,uthe quantity of output must rise, oruthe velocity of money must fall.货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式u货币数量论方程式说明，经济中货币量货币数量论方程式说明，经济中货币量的增加必然反映在其他三个变量中的一的增加必然反映在其他三个变量中的一个上个上:u物价水平必然上升物价水平必然上升,u产量必然上升产量必然上升, u货币流通速度必然下降。货币

24、流通速度必然下降。Figure 3 Nominal GDP, the Quantity of Money, and the Velocity of MoneyIndexes(1960 = 100)2,0001,00050001,500196019651970197519801985199019952000Nominal GDPVelocityM2图图3. 名义名义 GDP、货币量与货币流通速度货币量与货币流通速度指数指数(1960 = 100)2,0001,00050001,500196019651970197519801985199019952000名义GDP速度M2The Equilibr

25、ium Price Level, Inflation Rate, and the Quantity Theory of Money uThe velocity of money is relatively stable over time.uWhen the Fed changes the quantity of money, it causes proportionate changes in the nominal value of output (P Y).uBecause money is neutral, money does not affect output.均衡物价水平、通货膨

26、胀率与货币数量论均衡物价水平、通货膨胀率与货币数量论u货币流通速度一直是较为稳定的。货币流通速度一直是较为稳定的。u当美联储改变货币量时，它就引起名义产当美联储改变货币量时，它就引起名义产量价值量价值 (P Y)同比例变动。同比例变动。u因为货币是中性的，货币并不影响产量。因为货币是中性的，货币并不影响产量。The Equilibrium Price Level, Inflation Rate, and the Quantity Theory of MoneyuWhen the Fed alters the money supply and induces parallel changes i

27、n the nominal value of output, these changes are also reflected in changes in the price level.uWhen the Fed increases the money supply rapidly, the result is a high rate of inflation.均衡物价水平、通货膨胀率与货币数量论均衡物价水平、通货膨胀率与货币数量论u当美联储改变货币供给并引起名义产当美联储改变货币供给并引起名义产量价值相应变动时，这些变动反映在量价值相应变动时，这些变动反映在物价水平的变动上。物价水平的变动

28、上。u当美联储迅速增加货币供给时，结果当美联储迅速增加货币供给时，结果是高通货膨胀率。是高通货膨胀率。CASE STUDY: Money and Prices during Four HyperinflationsuHyperinflation is inflation that exceeds 50 percent per month. u Hyperinflation occurs in some countries because the government prints too much money to pay for its spending.案例案例研究：四次超速通货膨胀期间的

29、货币与物价研究：四次超速通货膨胀期间的货币与物价u超速通货膨胀一般定义为每月通货膨超速通货膨胀一般定义为每月通货膨胀率在胀率在50以上。以上。u在一些国家之所以发生超速通货膨胀在一些国家之所以发生超速通货膨胀是因为政府印制了太多货币，为政府是因为政府印制了太多货币，为政府支出买单。支出买单。Figure 4 Money and Prices During Four Hyperinflations(a) Austria(b) HungaryMoney supplyPrice levelIndex(Jan. 1921 = 100)Index(July 1921 = 100)Price level1

30、00,00010,0001,00010019251924192319221921Money supply100,00010,0001,00010019251924192319221921图图4. 超速通货膨胀时期的货币与物价超速通货膨胀时期的货币与物价(b) 匈牙利匈牙利货币货币供给供给19251924192319221921物价水平物价水平100,00010,0001,000100指数指数 (1921 .1= 100)(a) 奥地利奥地利19251924192319221921100,00010,0001,000100指数指数 (1921.1 = 100)物价水平物价水平货币货币供给供给Fi

31、gure 4 Money and Prices During Four Hyperinflations(c) Germany1Index(Jan. 1921 = 100)(d) Poland100,000,000,000,0001,000,00010,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000100,000,00010,000100MoneysupplyPrice level19251924192319221921Price levelMoneysupplyIndex(Jan. 1921 = 100)10010,000,000100,0001,000,00010,0001,000

32、19251924192319221921图图4. 超速通货膨胀时期的货币与物价超速通货膨胀时期的货币与物价c) 德国德国11000万亿万亿 1百万百万 100亿亿 1万亿万亿 1亿亿 1万万10019251924192319221921物价水平物价水平货币货币供给供给 d) 波兰波兰货币货币供给供给物价水平物价水平100 10 百万百万 10万万 1 百万百万 1万万1,00019251924192319221921指数指数 (1921.1 = 100)指数指数 (1921.1 = 100) Inflation TaxuWhen the government raises revenue by

33、 printing money, it is said to levy an inflation tax.uAn inflation tax is like a tax on everyone who holds money.uThe inflation ends when the government institutes fiscal reforms such as cuts in government spending.通货膨胀税通货膨胀税u当政府通过印制货币筹集收入时，可以说当政府通过印制货币筹集收入时，可以说是征收一种是征收一种通货膨胀税。通货膨胀税。u通货膨胀税向每一个持有货币的人

34、征税。通货膨胀税向每一个持有货币的人征税。u当政府从制度上进行消除通货膨胀税所需当政府从制度上进行消除通货膨胀税所需要的财政改革时，通货膨胀就结束了。要的财政改革时，通货膨胀就结束了。The Fisher EffectuThe Fisher effect refers to a one-to-one adjustment of the nominal interest rate to the inflation rate.uAccording to the Fisher effect, when the rate of inflation rises, the nominal interest

35、 rate rises by the same amount.uThe real interest rate stays the same.rateInflation + rateinterest Real =rateinterest Nominal费雪效应费雪效应u费雪效应费雪效应名义利率对通货膨胀率一名义利率对通货膨胀率一对一的调整。对一的调整。u根据根据 费雪效应费雪效应, 当通货膨胀率上升时，当通货膨胀率上升时， 名义利率上升同样的量。名义利率上升同样的量。u实际利率保持不变。实际利率保持不变。= + 名 义 利 率实 际 利 率通 货 膨 胀 率Figure 5 The Nomina

36、l Interest Rate and the Inflation RatePercent(per year)19601965197019751980198519901995200003691215InflationNominal interest rate图图5. 名义利率与通货膨胀率名义利率与通货膨胀率百分比百分比（每年）每年）19601965197019751980198519901995200003691215通货膨胀名义利率THE COSTS OF INFLATION通货膨胀通货膨胀的代价的代价uA Fall in Purchasing Power? 购买力下降？购买力下降？Infl

37、ation does not in itself reduce peoples real purchasing power. 通货膨胀本身并通货膨胀本身并没有没有降低人们的实际购买降低人们的实际购买力。力。The Costs of Inflation 通货膨胀的代价通货膨胀的代价uShoeleather costs 皮鞋成本皮鞋成本uMenu costs 菜单成本菜单成本uRelative price variability 相对价格变动相对价格变动uTax distortions 税收扭曲税收扭曲uConfusion and inconvenience 混乱与不方便混乱与不方便uArbitr

38、ary redistribution of wealth 任意的财富再分配任意的财富再分配Shoeleather CostsuShoeleather costs are the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to reduce their money holdings.uInflation reduces the real value of money, so people have an incentive to minimize their cash holdings. 皮鞋成本皮鞋成本u皮鞋成本皮鞋成本 当通货膨胀鼓励

39、人们减少当通货膨胀鼓励人们减少货币持有量时所浪费的资源。货币持有量时所浪费的资源。u通货膨胀降低了货币的实际价值，所以通货膨胀降低了货币的实际价值，所以通货膨胀激励人们持有最少量的现金。通货膨胀激励人们持有最少量的现金。 Shoeleather CostsuLess cash requires more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money from interest-bearing accounts.uThe actual cost of reducing your money holdings is the time and conven

40、ience you must sacrifice to keep less money on hand.uAlso, extra trips to the bank take time away from productive activities.皮鞋成本皮鞋成本u持有更少的现金需要更经常地去银行，持有更少的现金需要更经常地去银行，从有利息的储蓄帐户上提取现金。从有利息的储蓄帐户上提取现金。u减少货币持有量的实际成本是人们为了减少货币持有量的实际成本是人们为了减少手中货币持有量而必需牺牲的时间减少手中货币持有量而必需牺牲的时间与方便。与方便。u而且，过度频繁地去银行占用了本来用而且，过度频繁

41、地去银行占用了本来用于生产性活动的时间。于生产性活动的时间。Menu CostsuMenu costs are the costs of adjusting prices.uDuring inflationary times, it is necessary to update price lists and other posted prices.uThis is a resource-consuming process that takes away from other productive activities.菜单成本菜单成本u菜单成本菜单成本 改变价格的成本。改变价格的成本。u在通

42、货膨胀期间，必需更新价格表和在通货膨胀期间，必需更新价格表和其他邮寄的价格单。其他邮寄的价格单。u改变价格是一个消耗资源的过程，占改变价格是一个消耗资源的过程，占用了生产性活动的资源。用了生产性活动的资源。Relative-Price Variability and the Misallocation of Resources 相对价格变动与资源配置失误相对价格变动与资源配置失误uInflation distorts relative prices. 通货膨胀扭曲了相对价格。通货膨胀扭曲了相对价格。uConsumer decisions are distorted, and markets a

43、re less able to allocate resources to their best use. 消费者的决策被扭曲了，市场也就不能消费者的决策被扭曲了，市场也就不能把资源配置到其最好的用处中。把资源配置到其最好的用处中。Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion通货膨胀引起的税收扭曲通货膨胀引起的税收扭曲uInflation exaggerates the size of capital gains and increases the tax burden on this type of income. 通货膨胀扩大了资本收益规模，无形中增加通货膨胀扩大了资本

44、收益规模，无形中增加了这种收入的税收负担。了这种收入的税收负担。uWith progressive taxation, capital gains are taxed more heavily. 在累进税率制下，资本收益的税收负担更加在累进税率制下，资本收益的税收负担更加沉重。沉重。Inflation-Induced Tax DistortionuThe income tax treats the nominal interest earned on savings as income, even though part of the nominal interest rate merely

45、compensates for inflation. uThe after-tax real interest rate falls, making saving less attractive.通货膨胀引起的税收扭曲通货膨胀引起的税收扭曲u所得税把名义利率当作储蓄所赚到的所得税把名义利率当作储蓄所赚到的收入，即使名义利率的一部分只是补收入，即使名义利率的一部分只是补偿通货膨胀。偿通货膨胀。 u税后的真实利率降低了，降低了储蓄税后的真实利率降低了，降低了储蓄的吸引力。的吸引力。Copyright2004 South-Western表表1. 通货膨胀如何提高了储蓄的税收负担通货膨胀如何提高了储蓄

46、的税收负担经济经济 1(物价稳定物价稳定)经济经济 2(通货膨胀通货膨胀)实际利率实际利率4%4%通货膨胀率通货膨胀率08名义利率名义利率 (实际利率实际利率 + 通货膨胀率通货膨胀率)41225%税收引起的利率减少税收引起的利率减少 (.25 名义利率名义利率)13税收名义利率税收名义利率 (.75 名义利率名义利率)39税后实际利率税后实际利率(税后名义利率通货膨胀率税后名义利率通货膨胀率)31Confusion and InconvenienceuWhen the Fed increases the money supply and creates inflation, it erode

47、s the real value of the unit of account.uInflation causes dollars at different times to have different real values.uTherefore, with rising prices, it is more difficult to compare real revenues, costs, and profits over time.混乱与不方便混乱与不方便u当美联储提高货币供給量并引起通货膨胀当美联储提高货币供給量并引起通货膨胀时，它就侵蚀了计价单位的实际价值。时，它就侵蚀了计价单位

48、的实际价值。u通货膨胀造成不同时期的美元具有不同的通货膨胀造成不同时期的美元具有不同的价值。价值。u因此，当价格上升时，更难比较企业不同因此，当价格上升时，更难比较企业不同时期的真实收益、成本和利润。时期的真实收益、成本和利润。A Special Cost of Unexpected Inflation: Arbitrary Redistribution of WealthuUnexpected inflation redistributes wealth among the population in a way that has nothing to do with either meri

49、t or need.uThese redistributions occur because many loans in the economy are specified in terms of the unit of account money.未预期到的通货膨胀的特殊成本：未预期到的通货膨胀的特殊成本：任意的财富再分配任意的财富再分配u未预期到的通货膨胀以一种既与才能未预期到的通货膨胀以一种既与才能无关又与需要无关的方式在人们中无关又与需要无关的方式在人们中重重新分配财富。新分配财富。u这种再分配之所以发生是因为经济中这种再分配之所以发生是因为经济中许多贷款是按计价单位许多贷款是按计价单位货币来规定货币来规定条款的。条款的。SummaryuThe overall level of prices in an economy adjusts to bring money supply and money demand into balan