美股在美国的顶级投资理念

1、DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OFNON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be

2、 aware that the Firm may have a of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Credit Suisse Equity ResearchAmericas/United StatesTop PicksCredit Suisse Top Investment Ideas in the United

3、 StatesJuly 12, 2019Credit Suisse US Equity ResearchCredit Suisse Global Product MarketingArbin Sherchan, CFAductmarketingarbin.sherchan(877) 291-2683(212) 538-4442(212) 325-8967获取报告1、2、3、每周群内7+报告；当日华尔街日报、4、行研报告均为公开利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫 关注公号回复：加入“起点财经”群。 Top Picks106 Top

4、Ideas : We highlight 94 Top Outperform and 12 Top Underperform Ideas.Ideas Across Style, Sector, and Size: We have grouped Top Outperform ideas by style (growth/value), sector and market cap on slide 8.§§What is New?2 New Sectors Added: Autos & Auto Parts and Restaurants. See recent re

5、search: Autos & Auto Parts Initiation - The Challenge of the Two Clocks, Restaurants Phone To Table: Digitizing Restaurants5 New #1 Top Outperforms: All 5 are additions (CLX, CMG, F, FANG, UTHR). See recent research: CLX, CMG, F, FANG, UTHR11 Names Added to Top Outperform Ideas: CINF, CLX, CMG,

6、COP, F, FANG, MYOK, SHAK, SIRI, UTHR, WMB13 Names Removed from Top Outperform Ideas: AJG, BMRN, CZR, ECA, ESPR, HEI, HRS, JNJ, MNST, MRK, PFE, WPX, ZS1 Name Added to Top Underperform Ideas: SHLX. See recent research: SHLX§§§§§Methodology§ “One-stop shop” for the researc

7、h teams best ideas. Every US research analyst identifies and ranks up to three top stock picks based on a 6- to 12-month time horizon. For each name, we include a short summary of our analysts thesis as a starting point for further analysis.§ These should not be viewed as portfolios; they are s

8、imply a current snapshot of the analysts top picks in their coverage universes.2Table of Contents3SectionPage#1 Top Outperforms4Summary of Top Ideas5Top Outperforms by Style, Size and Sector8Top Picks That Rank in Top 25% in HOLT® Scorecard9Top Ideas by Sector / IndustryBasic Materials11Consume

9、r15Energy / Utilities25Financials32Healthcare40Industrials49Services56TMT58Valuation Tables66#1 Top OutperformsSource: Credit SuisseNew Top PickStock Moved Up in Rank4TMTCommunications & Networking EquipmentCOMMConsumer InternetGOOGLDatacenter REITsINXNIT HardwareIBMSemiconductorsAMATSoftwareCRM

10、& MediaCMCSASERVICESBusiness ServicesINFOINDUSTRIALSEngineering & ConstructionJECMachineryDEBASIC MATERIALSFINANCIALSChemicals & Ag SciencesFMCAsset Managers / Retail BrokersBXMs & MiningEAFBanksJPMPaper & PackagingCCKInsurance LifeVOYACONSUMERInsurance P&C / BrokersWLTWMortg

11、age FinanceCOOPGamingSpecialty FinanceSYFHousehold Products & BeveragesCLXHEALTHCARELeisureHGVBiotechnology Large CapVRTXPackaged FoodNOMDBiotechnology SMID CapUTHRRestaurantsCMGLife Science Tools & DiagnosticsZTSRetail: HardlinesAAPRetail: Softlines & Global BrandsBURLHealthcare Facilit

12、iesHCARetail: Staples & DistributionUSFDManaged CareUNHENERGY / UTILITIESMedical Supplies & DevicesSYKAlternative EnergyRUNE&Ps Large CapMROE&Ps SMID CapFANGMidstream & MLPsETOilfield Services & EquipmentHALRefining & MarketingVLOUtilitiesEXCINDUSTRIALSAerospace & Def

13、enseAirfreight & Ground TransportCSXAirlinesUALAuto & Auto PartsFElectrical Equipment & Multi- IndustryEMRSummary of Top IdeasSource: Credit SuisseNew Top PickStock Moved Up in RankStock Moved Down in Rank5AnalystTop OutperformTop UnderperformRemovals#1#2#3BASIC MATERIALSChemicals &

14、Ag SciencesChris ParkinsonFMCASHDDMs & MiningCurt WoodworthEAFCSTMHCCXPaper & PackagingLars KjellbergCCKWRKCONSUMERGamingBen CombesCZRHousehold Products & BeveragesKaumil GajrawalaCLXCLMNSTLeisureBen CombesHGVPackaged FoodRob MoskowNOMDMDLZBGSRestaurantsLauren SilbermanCMGSHAKRetail: Har

15、dlinesSeth SigmanAAPWSMRetail: Softlines & Global BrandsMichael BinettiBURLRLRetail: Staples & DistributionJudah FrommerUSFDSYYKRENERGY / UTILITIESAlternative EnergyMichael Weinstein / Maheep MandloiRUNNEPE&Ps Large CapBill FeatherstonMROPXDCOPECAE&Ps SMID CapBetty JiangFANGWPXVNOMMi

16、dstream & MLPsSpiro DounisETWMBSHLXSummary of Top IdeasSource: Credit SuisseNew Top PickStock Moved Up in RankStock Moved Down in Rank6AnalystTop OutperformTop UnderperformRemovals#1#2#3ENERGY / UTILITIESOilfield Services & EquipmentJacob LundbergHALWHDPUMPRefining & MarketingManav Gupta

17、VLOUtilitiesMichael WeinsteinEXCNIFINANCIALSAsset Managers / Retail BrokersCraig SiegenthalerBXBLKLPLABanksSusan KatzkeJPMBACInsurance LifeAndrew KligermanVOYAAMPPRIInsurance P&C / BrokersMike ZaremskiWLTWCINFCBAJGMortgage FinanceDoug HarterCOOPNRZSTWDSpecialty FinanceMoshe OrenbuchSYFVAXPHEALTH

18、CAREBiotechnology Large CapEvan SeigermanVRTXNBIXBIIBBiotechnology SMID CapMartin AusterUTHRSRPTMYOKBMRN, ESPRLife Science Tools & DiagnosticsErin WrightHCAHealthcare FacilitiesA.J. RiceZTSIQVLHManaged CareA.J. RiceUNHANTMMedical Supplies & DevicesMatt MiksicSYKEWGMEDZBHPharmaceuticalsJNJ, M

19、RK, PFESummary of Top IdeasSource: Credit SuisseNew Top PickStock Moved Up in RankStock Moved Down in Rank7AnalystTop OutperformTop UnderperformRemovals#1#2#3INDUSTRIALSAerospace & DefenseRob SpingarnHEI, HRSAirfreight & Ground TransportAllison LandryCSXUNPCNICHRWAirlinesJoe CaiadoUALALKSAVE

20、Autos & Auto PartsDan LevyFElectrical Equipment & Multi- IndustryJohn WalshEMRHONIREngineering & ConstructionJamie CookJECMachineryJamie CookDESERVICESBusiness ServicesKevin McVeighINFOIRMEFXTMTCommunications & NetworkingEquipmentSami BadriCOMMConsumer InternetStephen JuGOOGLAMZNFBDa

21、tacenter REITsSami BadriINXNEQIXIT HardwareMatt CabralIBMNTAPHPESemiconductorsJohn PitzerAMATLRCXADISoftwareBrad ZelCRMSSNCZS& MediaDoug MitchelsonCMCSAATUSSIRITop Outperforms by Style, Size, and SectorSource: Credit Suisse8Small Cap (<$4.3B)*Mid Cap (>4.3B, <28.7B)*Large Cap (>$28.7

22、B)*Growth Stocks*Basic MaterialsASH, CCK, FMC, WRKDDConsumerSHAK,AAP, BURL, CLX, CMG, KR, RLSYYEnergyRUNWMBFinancialsAMP, LPLABLK, VHealthcareGMED, UTHRLH, NBIX, SRPTANTM, EW, HCA, SYK, UNH, VRTX, ZTSIndustrialsSAVE,ALK, UALCSX, DE, EMR, HON, IR, UNPServicesTMTCOMMLRCX, NTAP, SIRI, SSNCADI, AMAT, AM

23、ZN, CMCSA, CRM, EQIX, FB, GOOGL, IBMValue Stocks*Basic MaterialsConsumerMDLZEnergyFANG, HAL, MRO, NI, PXD, WPXCOP, EXC, VLOFinancialsCINF, NRZ, PRI, STWD, SYF, VOYABAC, JPMHealthcareIndustrialsJECFServicesTMT* Note: Market Cap cut offs and Style categorization are based on Russell classifications.To

24、p Picks That Rank in Top 25% in HOLT®ScorecardEquinix, Inc. International Busines NetAppApplied Materials Inc Lam Research Corp. S Comcast Corp.Sirius XM Holdings InJPMorgan Chase & Co. Voya Financial Ameriprise Financial PrimericaCincinnati Financial New Residential Synchrony Financial Vis

25、a Inc.Source: Credit Suisse9The HOLT scorecard calculates factors scores on a group relative basis. We indicate above where a company ranks above the 25th percentile in each of the categories:(1) Quality: A firms track record of earning returns on capital (CFROI®) and managing growth. (2) Momen

26、tum: Revisions to consensus EPS estimates translated into cash flow impact (CFROI) and medium-term share price momentum. (3) Valuation: Based on the HOCF framework and traditional valuation multiplesTop Ideas by Sector / IndustryChris Parkinsonchristopher.parkinson(212) 538-6286Basic MaterialsChemic

27、als & Ag ScienceSource: Credit Suisse; Data as of 10-Jul-1911Top OutperformRankCompanyPricingRationale1FMC Corporation (FMC)HOLT® LensPrice: $81.54 Target: $97.00 Mkt Cap: $10.7BThesis: Our bull thesis is underscored by: (1) FMC's ability to outgrow CPC markets by 200-400bps, (2) its ab

28、ility to further expand long-term margins via mix, new MOAs, and cost reductions, (3) further benefits from the DuPont asset integration / revenue synergies, (4) Central / SE Asian and EE growth potential, and (5) M&A / cap allocation optionality, which includes new molecule purchases. FMC's

29、 balance sheet provides a strong degree of upside optionality, with net debt/EBITDA <2.5x, an ability to focus solely on "ag opportunities" and the ability to augment EPS growth with buy-backs.Potential Catalysts over next 3-6 months: Synergy progress (cross-selling), updates on capital

30、 allocation, NorthernHemisphere planting updates.Valuation: Our $97 target price is based on a 50/50 blend of 11x our 2020 EBITDA and 16x our 2020 EPS estimates, discounted back.2Ashland Global Holdings Inc. (ASH)HOLT® LensPrice: $76.86 Target: $92.00 Mkt Cap: $4.8BOur bull thesis is based on m

31、ore visibility into cost-cutting initiatives, including speed of execution, margin acceleration on improving mix, and portfolio optionality (sale of businesses, debt pay down, potential take-out). ASH is our second top pick, as we believe there is an improving price/mix on strong Pharma / PC demand

32、(skin care, etc.), and further cost-cutting optionality (CSe >$50mm co target) / asset optimization opportunities are driving ASI margin expansion. CSe $1bln net proceeds from the sales of Composites and Marl (expected close late summer) will be used predominantly for debt reduction (CSe $40-50mm

33、 in interest savings), with buybacks representing longer-term optionality. ASH is also a potential take-out target (CSe >$100/share), though not crux to our thesis.3DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD)HOLT® LensPrice: $69.65 Target: $79.00 Mkt Cap: $52.2BOur bull thesis on DD is underscored by: (i.)

34、 particularly strong growth prospects in N&B (probiotics, pharmaceutical excipients, cultures) and S&C (Tyvek, Kevlar, Water Solutions) driving positive mix, (ii.) margin upside driven by synergy realization ($450mm in 19) and factory efficiency initiatives (especially in S&C), (iii.) a

35、high probability of corporate actions over the next 2 years (potential RMT / tax-free spin of N&B / E&I, divestiture of non-core businesses) and (iv.) strong cash flow profile (>90% conversion) providing capital allocation optionality (30-40% dividend payout, $2bln share buy-back program,

36、 M&A opportunities).Curt Woodworthcurt.woodworth(212) 325-5117Basic MaterialsMs & MiningSource: Credit Suisse; Data as of 10-Jul-1912Top OutperformRankCompanyPricingRationale1Graftech International.(EAF)HOLT® LensPrice: $11.28 Target: $18.00 Mkt Cap: $3.3BThesis: As the lowest-cost grap

37、hite electrode producer globally, attributed to unique vertically integrated position, GrafTech, with locked-in 60-70% EBITDA margins, has the potential to return 75% of its market capitalization in dividends/buybacks through 2020. Barriers to entry (technological know-how and high capital investmen

38、t) in both needle coke and graphite electrodes, as well asing demand from electric vehicles for needle coke, provide large scope for continued capital returns.Potential Catalysts over next 3-6 months: Possibility for a special dividend during 2019 and continued de-leveringof balance sheet.Valuation:

39、 We note that while lithium and battery stocks currently trade at 11-12x 2019 EV/EBITDA and have 40- 50% margins, EAF currently trades at 4.4x 2019 and 2022. Our $18 target price is based on 6.0x our 2020 estimated EBITDA.2Constellium (CSTM)HOLT® LensPrice: $10.22 Target: $20.00 Mkt Cap: $1.2BC

40、STM has a highly visible growth trajectory, is seeing better execution at UACJ, and currently trades at a substantial discount to its peers. The FCF inflection point has arrived in 1Q-19 yet the multiple appears to be especially depressed. Solid growth expected to be seen in aerospace and defense en

41、d markets with as narrow body build rates accelerate, CSTM recovers share at Airbus, and CSTM leverages Airware growth from strong A-220 demand. BiW volumes to increase significantly at UACJ and Neuf-Brisach, with full utilization expected in 2020. Auto structure nominations to remain strong with a

42、mix shift driving margin upside in the AS&I segment through 2020. Particularly strong price dynamics across shorter cycle in Transportation, Industry, & Defense (TID) and spot aerospace / industrial sheet markets.3Warrior Met Coal Inc.(HCC)HOLT® LensPrice: $24.68Target: $36.00 Mkt Cap:

43、$1.3BSeaborne met coal market to remain tight over 2019, falling slightly throughout the year but increasing in 4Q19 as Indian purchasers return from the monsoon season. Warrior is highly leveraged to the met coal market, which we view as attractive, allowing it to have a strong capital return profi

44、le, which will continue to drive strong EBITDA and free cash flow generation through the year.Curt Woodworthcurt.woodworth(212) 325-5117Basic MaterialsMs & MiningSource: Credit Suisse; Data as of 10-Jul-1913Top UnderperformRankCompanyPricingRationale1United States Steel Corp. (X)HOLT® LensP

45、rice: $13.47 Target: $9.00 Mkt Cap: $2.3BUS Steel is facing clear challenges to its business m , as demonstrated through announcements to spend $1.4bn for new Fairfield EAF / Mon Valley upgrade, which simply reflect the need to lower costs to remain competitive within the industry. In past two years

46、, X spent a total of $4.3bn on capital and maintenance / outage expense, a substantial increase from $2.8bn seen in 2015-16, which begs the question whether X will ever get adequate ROI on this spend given its history of unplanned outages, loss in auto, and unexpected reinvestment spend. In our view

47、, X should be preparing itself for a 2015-16 type environmental now, as theing Sheet Tsunami will drive a structural rerating lower in fair value HRC prices / industry margins.Lars Kjellberglars.kjellberg+46 8 545 07 926Basic MaterialsPaper & PackagingSource: Credit Suisse; Data as of 10-Jul-191

48、4Top OutperformRankCompanyPricingRationale1Crown Holdings Inc.(CCK)HOLT® LensPrice: $61.01 Target: $65.00 Mkt Cap: $8.3BThesis: We see three principal factors behind our positive view: (1) Can volumes in weak geographies (a drag on 2018 performance) stabilize and continued growth in key markets

49、 (SE Asia, Latam and Europe), where CCK is well positioned to grow ahead of the market from recent and ongoing expansionary investments. Geographic and product diversification and exposure to growth markets have seen CCK deliver progressive operatinge in 14 of the past 15 years (2012 only down year)

50、; (2) scope for margin expansion in North America from positive contribution from PPI escalators mitigating cost inflation and a better balance in CCK's US beverage can offering; (3) Signode (20% of revenues) is delivering the expected high cash conversion (92% YTD) and CCK is on target t ever b

51、y 0.5x/year. Valuation remains attractive, in our view. We see justification for a continuation of the gradual rerating of the shares that commenced in Q4 as balance sheet metrics improve and CCK actions drive medium term earnings growth.Potential Catalysts over next 3-6 months: Q2 19 results on 17

52、July.Valuation: Our $65 target price is based on the average of our DCF valuation (weight 50%), P/E of 10.8x to our 12- month forward estimate (25%), and applying an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.3x on our 12-month forward estimate.2WestRock (WRK)HOLT® LensPrice: $37.40 Target: $67.00 Mkt Cap: $9.6BW

53、RK outlined its plan t iver >US$4bn EBITDA in 2022 at its inaugural investor day in late 2017. A plan that would be delivered through significant deployment of capital at accretive returns. A year later, WRK has confirmed $1.2bn of capex projects with expected returns in excess of 20% and the acc

54、retive acquisition of KapStone (consolidated from November 5). About three-quarters of the capex projects are focused on improving costs and efficiency with little or no market risk. We believe valuation heavily discount WRKs accretive capital allocation and is pricing in a significant deterioration in underlying market fundamentals. In contrast, we are seeing signs of stabilization and budding signs of improvement. WRK is well positioned to benefit.Kaumil Gajrawala