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1、 bowling with a crystal ballYoram SolomonAssociation for Strategic Planning2008 National C 2007 Yoram Solomonwhat is the problem today? Short-term focus of companies Innovation is risky Innovation is hard The role of people is understated The probability of success is low Limited strategists 2007 Yo

2、ram Solomonagenda Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist 2007 Yoram Solomonagenda Three phases of radical inn

3、ovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist 2007 Yoram Solomonthree phases of innovationPredictingtechnology(and other)trendsIdentifyingoppor

4、tunitiesproducts,technologiesNavigatingthem throughthe industrymaze 2007 Yoram Solomonagenda Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politi

5、cs, and the strategist 2007 Yoram Solomonfuture trends Local Forces Competitors Customers Suppliers / Partners Corporate Global forces Politics Economy Society Nature T 2007 Yoram Solomondisruptive 2007 Yoram Solomontechnology disrupts a new 2007 Yoram Solomontechnology disrupts multiple 2007 Yoram

6、Solomonvisionary technological trend predictionApril 19, 1965, in Volume 38 of “Electronics” magazineTitle: “Cramming more components onto integrated circuits”Author: Director of the R&D Labs, Fairchild semiconductors Sub-title: “with unit cost falling as the number of components per circuit ris

7、es, by 1975 economics may dictate squeezing as many as 65,000 components on a single silicon chip”The author was Dr. Gordon E. Moore. Only 7 years earlier, Jack Kilby of Texas Instruments invented the Integrated Circuit (won Noble prize in Physics in 2000 for that invention)Today, a 90nm, 5x5mm IC h

8、olds over 3 million logical 2007 Yoram Solomonmoores 2007 Yoram Solomonsemiconductor process trendsSource: ITRS 2007 Yoram Solomonhard disk drive density 2007 Yoram Solomonstorage cost 2007 Yoram Solomonprocessing power 2007 Yoram SolomonDSP processing 2007 Yoram SolomonDSP power consumption 2007 Yo

9、ram Solomoncommunication speed 2007 Yoram Solomondigital camera resolution 2007 Yoram Solomonagenda Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability,

10、 politics, and the strategist 2007 Yoram Solomonwhy isnt Moores law leveling off?TimeTechnology parameterBarrier 2Barrier 1Actual productsProducts if barrier not crossedTrend lineThe trend line is a psychological line. Researchers are addressing challenges and barriers to stay on a consistent trend

11、2007 Yoram Solomonindustry cooperationTimeTechnology parameter4 years8-15 years“Pre-competition”CooperationCompetitionPhaseQualifiedProcessAddress barriers that affect 2007 Yoram Solomonagenda Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level of

12、f Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist 2007 Yoram Solomonimplications of technology trendsIt takes 7 years to deliver a product to marketWhat will technology deliver in 2014? Digital camera resolution: 8.5MP (30MP) S

13、emiconductor process: 65nm (32nm) Hard Disk Drive price: 40/GB (0.5/GB, $100=20,000GB) Flash memory price: $5/GB (42/GB, $10=24GB) DSP processing power: 10,000 MMACS (124,000 MMACS) Cost of processing HDTV: $81 ($5.2) Power of processing HDTV: 0.7W (31mW)How thick is a piece of printer paper if fold

14、ed 50 times?If car engines evolved as fast as semiconductorsa 1600cc car would have 23,000 BHP in 2005Predicting technology trends accurately is a critical assetIf as fast as hard disk drive density3 million BHP 2007 Yoram Solomonprediction using two points1995540MB2004160GB 2007 Yoram Solomonpredic

15、tion 2007 Yoram Solomontechnology sweet 2007 Yoram Solomonmemory capacity vs. 2007 Yoram Solomontechnology performance 2007 Yoram Solomonnumber of components per IC 2007 Yoram Solomonthe time horizon: shoot in front of the duckValueTimeYou are here2006200219981994199020102014Target market timingShoo

16、t in front of the duck20-year trend line10-year trend line2-3 yearsThe targetIntroduction4 yearsD 2007 Yoram Solomonimplications of technology trendsProblem: the technology history is not too longProblem: the trends are very aggressive and curves are steepQuestion: will those trends continue? Questi

17、on: when will “Moores law” level off? Question: why do I need 2.9 Terabytes of disk space? Question: do we have a request from a customer?Those are the wrong questions because Technology companies keep focusing on improving Technology changes and disruptions allow them to keep the curves 10 years ag

18、o you wouldnt believe where we are today You cant imagine all future applications but they will happen The right question: what could I do if W 2007 Yoram Solomonagenda Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology

19、trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist 2007 Yoram Solomoncapitalizing on a technological trend Capacity of Hard disk drives is growing 107% a year Late 1990s: “what could I do if a hard disk drive held 10GB, was 1.5” in diameter, and could

20、run off a battery?” The iPod was launched on October 2001 By December 16, 2004, Apple Sold 10 million iPods 8.2m iPods sold in 2004 alone 8.5m iPods sold in 2Q06 alone creating a $7b/year 2007 Yoram Solomonconsumption trendsCopyright 2007, Yoram S 2007 Yoram SolomonWays to grow capacityNumber of sur

21、faces (not growing)Number of tracksNumber of bits per track (BPT)RPM (not affecting capacity)540MB 1996, 160GB 2004growing 296x in 8 years, 17.2x in 4 yearsTherefore capacity in 2008: 160GB x 17.2 = 2,750GBTransfer rate is 100MB/s 3.5”, 75MB/s 2.5”, 10MB/s 1”Assuming # of tracks and BPT grow at same

22、 ratio to provide increased densityCapacity increase (17.2x) is made of # of tracks increase x Bit/Track increase, to Bits/Track increase over 4 years is 4.15xSpindle speed grew from 3,600RPM 1996 to 9,600RPM 2004 (2.7x in 8 years, 1.63x in 4 years), and will therefore be 1.63x faster in 2008The tra

23、nsfer rate of a 3.5” HDD will be 100MB/s x 4.15 x 1.63 = 676MB/s (5.4Gbps)The transfer rate of a 1” HDD will be 10MB/s x 4.15 x 1.63 = 540Mbps in 2008, and 3.7Gbps in 2012. example: disk transfer rate 2007 Yoram Solomonwhere is the opportunity? What is your business? High speed wired connectivity Wh

24、at are your core competencies? Analog and digital interfaces at high-speed What technology trends are around you? Disk drive capacity and speed growth How will people use those trends? More (and richer) content in mobile/portable devices Need to move this content around, most likely to/from a PC pla

25、tform How do those trends affect your markets? USB 2.0 is not fast enough Where is the opportunity? Develop a USB 3.0 technology at rates of 5 10 G 2007 Yoram Solomonagenda Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technol

26、ogy trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist 2007 Yoram Solomonmajor and minor 2007 Yoram Solomonmain and derivative 2007 Yoram Solomonmain and derivative 2007 Yoram Solomonagenda Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to techno

27、logy focus Why Moores law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and strategist 2007 Yoram Solomonprobability and the role of the strategistSo you found a disruptive implementationThere is a very small probability of

28、 successCompany internalIndustry 2007 Yoram Solomonthe role of the strategic planner Traditionallyvisionary, points out the possibilities Todays reality: short time horizon, strong pushback, low probability of industry success You can bring a horse to water, but you cant make it drink or can you? Call for action: extend the role of the strategic planner: overcome internal barriers, use external politics Make it happen! 2007 Yoram SolomonsummaryThe future is not as unpredictable as we might thinkTechnology trends often do no