全球医药产业研究与发展的最新趋势

1、.1全球医药产业全球医药产业研究研究与发展的与发展的最新趋势最新趋势胡江滨美中药协 (SAPA)北京, 2004.2报告内容 全球制药界新药开发最新概况 新药开发值得注意的走向 Project in-licensing项目引进 Life Cycle Management (LCM)产品周期的管理 OutsourcingWhat Why and (How) ?.3223236249285296297308337364396010020030040050060019921993199419951996199719981999200020012002p 2003pGlobal pharmaceuti

2、cal sales (US$ billion)4204450100200300400500600Yearp = projectionSource: Sales data for 1992-2001 supplied by IMS Health全球药品销售全球药品销售 1992-2003p.40608010012014016018020019921993199419951996199719981999200020012002pYearIndexed values (1992 = 100)全球研发费用全球新药上市研发时间 (3 year moving average)全球销售全球销售，研发费用及研

3、发时间和新药上市全球销售，研发费用及研发时间和新药上市1992-2002p.5Research Late DevelopmentEarly DevelopmentRegulatory assessmentCommercial-isationPre-clinical evaluationClinical evaluationUS FDA: 1.0 yrsEMEA: 1.3 yrs Japanese MHLW: 1.4 yrsDuration(median)Attrition(Number of compounds entering stage per compound launched)911新

4、药新药 R&D 的过程的过程Target discoveryAssay developmentLead discoveryLead optimisation.611%16%44%79%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%First human dose toMarket临床一期First patient dose toMarket临床二期First pivotal dose toMarket临床三期Submission to market申报Success rate新药上市的成功机率新药上市的成功机率.78%13%40%77%34%46%76%88%0%1

5、0%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%First human dose tomarketFirst patient dose tomarketFirst pivotal dose tomarketSubmission to marketSuccess rateChemical entitiesBiotechSuccess rate to market by product type.8Termination reasons were provided for 498 of the 538 NASs for which development was terminated

6、between 1999 and 2001.新药开发失败的原因新药开发失败的原因 1999-2001.9目前新药开发遇到的困境 R&D成本和风险不断提高 Pipelines becoming thinner新药项目越来越少 Increasing costs for promotion新药上市的费用越来越高 Shorter product life cycles新药产品周期不断缩短 Rising generic exposure非专利药抢占市场越来越早.10面对上述的挑战，国际制药界采取了些什么对策？.11New Trends in Drug Development目前的新走向 Now

7、the classic drug discovery model is supplemented by传统的新药开发模式由下面两种方式进行补充 Project in-licensing项目引进 Life Cycle Management (LCM)产品周期的管理 Outsourcing.12Many blockbuster drugs are externally sourced许多重磅炸弹都是从其它公司引进的。DrugLicenseeLicensorLaunched 2002 sales(mio USD)PaxilGSKNovo Nordisk 19912,055PravacholBMSSa

8、nkyo19902,266FosamaxMerckGentili19932,250LipitorPfizerWarner Lamb19977,972CelexaForest LabsLundbeck19981,451.13Revenues from in-licensing are increasing引进项目的产品销售正在不断提高Share of revenues from in-licensingTop 10 pharmacos* Classified products account for over 70 % of prescription revenuesSource: Analys

9、t reports; annual reports; Pharmaprojects database; literature search; McKinsey analysis.14Why License in/ PartneringTo complement in-house R+D efforts对公司本身对公司本身R& D 的补充的补充To hedge against unexpected product failure or disappointing commercial performance以防不可预期的产品失败或者不佳的商业业绩以防不可预期的产品失败或者不佳的商业业绩I

10、ncreasing value of development and marketed products through arrangements with third parties联和开发和销售联和开发和销售.15项目引进包括哪些方面 In-licensing/Partnering for global development 项目引进与联合开发 Discovery/Research Platform collaborations研究平台的合作 New drug delivery technologies新的给药剂型 Co-marketing, co-promotion联合销售 Manuf

11、acturing relationships.16项目引进案例 1999-2002 CompanyTotal $MMDealBristol-Myers Squibb2,000Equity stake of $1 bn & $ 1 bn cash for co-development & co-promotion of IMC-225Novartis1,600Purchase from GSK of Famvir and DenavirRoche1,100Purchase from GSK of KytrilAventis450Milestones to Millenium +

12、profit shareBayer435Investment and milestones for MilleniumLilly250Cash/equity/loan/milestones/royalties to ISIS forISIS 3521 and antisense discovery collaborationPharmacia230Milestones to Celltech for CDP-870Schering-Plough189Vascular protection agents from AtheroGenicsGenentech185Cash/equity/miles

13、tones to OSIPfizer155Cash/milestones to OnyxLilly179Investment/milestones for ICOS CialisPharmacia62Milestones to Cambridge Antibody Technology.17Competitors for a given licensing dealPercent of respondentsCompetition for Deals Is Also Increasing5 years agoFewer than 33 to 55 to 8TodaySource: McKins

14、ey survey.18Cross Functional Deal TeamStandard Processes and Team WorkResearch and DevelopmentMarketingLegalFinancePatentPreselectionInitialEvaluationFull EvaluationNegotiation.19Due DiligenceObtain and review source documentation to provide a reliable evaluation of the:Scientific rationalePreclinic

15、al SafetyDrug metabolism and pharmacokineticsChemical and pharmaceutical developmentClinical efficacy and safetyRegulatory filabilityPatent status.20Large Number of Opportunities Evaluated for Every Deal Closed 110 Contacts 65 Early Assessments 17 Initial Evaluations 9 Due Diligences 3 Neogtiations

16、1 Deal Closed.21New Trends in Drug Development目前的新走向 Now the classic drug discovery model is supplemented by传统的新药开发模式由下面两种方式进行补充 Project in-licensing项目引进 Life Cycle Management (LCM)产品周期的管理 Outsourcing.22AugmentinClaritinZestrilNeurontinNeurontinFloventFloventCipro-Cipro-floxacinfloxacinProcritProcri

17、tLovenoxLovenoxDuragesicDuragesicDiflucanDiflucanZocorZocorPravacholPravacholZithromaxZithromaxZoloftZoloftActosActosAmbienAmbienPaxilPaxilNeupogenNeupogenNorvascNorvascFosamaxFosamaxEffexorEffexorRisperdalRisperdalSereventSereventLevaquinLevaquinAciphexAciphexPrevacklPrevacklCeliceptCeliceptTopamax

18、TopamaxGemzarGemzarAriceptAriceptSingulairSingulairAdvair/Advair/SeretideSeretide*Only drugs with revenues of more than US $100 million per year are included. Why Life Cycle Management ?今后十年内专利过期的新药.23Life Cycle Management include Prolonged/Modified release dosage forms Fixed combination with other

19、drugs Enhanced bioavailability New drug delivery principles Targeted or site-specific drug delivery.24Global Drug Delivery Market, 2001Total Drug Delivery Systems Market = $42.9 billionsOralInhalationTransdermalParenteralOtherTotal Pharmaceutical Market = $350 billions.2530%11%32%19%40%26%0%10%20%30

20、%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Major companiesOther companiesAverage percentage of R&D expenditure by company allocated to line extensions199719992001各大公司用于LCM方面的研发费用.26Success Story of LCMThe Cardizem Story.27Wellbutrin: Growth of a Blockbuster $millionnNCE exclusivity expires: 2004nPK half-life: 21 ho

21、ursn8 days to reach steady-state plasma levelWellbutrin (buproprion HCl) Story (GSK)Wellbtrin SRintroducedWellbtrin XLapproved.28Why Develop Fixed Combination Products? New patent protection Synergistic effects Better therapy Patient compliance Patient convenience Attractive market.29New Trends in D

22、rug Development目前的新走向 Now the classic drug discovery model is supplemented by传统的新药开发模式由下面两种方式进行补充 Project in-licensing项目引进 Life Cycle Management (LCM)产品周期的管理 Outsourcing.30Outsourcing为什么要为什么要 Outsourcing?Outsourcing?Capacity Management 人力资源的调控人力资源的调控 Technology/Specific expertise 新技术新技术Strategic 战略上

23、的考虑Cost control 控制成本Deadline 时间.31新药研发的费用分布新药研发的费用分布 2001.32010203040506019971998199920002001USANon-core marketsGermanyUKFranceJapanSource of patients for clinical trials 1997-2001Year enrolment completedPercentage of total patients recruited.335.47.47.99.313.30.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0 Respiratory

24、 (151) Anti-infectives (222) Cardiovascular system(174) Nervous system (383) Anti-cancer (342)Median duration of enrolment period (months)Impact of therapeutic area on enrolment period(n) = number of clinical studies .3422%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%CMC outsourcing expenditure as apercentage of total CMC ex

25、penditure (average) 18%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Average percentage of R&D FTEs working in CMC Outsourcing of CMC12%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Average percentage of R&D expenditure invested in CMC Proportion of R&D expenditure spent on CMC activities in 2001Proportion of R&D Full Time Equivalents a

26、llocated to CMC in 2001CMC outsourcing expenditure as a percentage of total CMC expenditure.35Conclusions 结语 开发具有国内或国外水平的新药不仅要依靠企业本身的实力, 还要眼光向外. 有效的引进新项目及专利是目前国际上流行做法. 对已有的上市产品， 要利用新技术进行多次开发和产品周期管理(LCM)，以维持和延续产品的寿命和市场份额。 一旦中国的产品质量，技术及GMP得已保证， Outsourcing, Generic chemical drug and biotech strategy 中

27、国的制药企业对上述所提的问题都得到加强时，那么中国制药企业的崛起将为时不远.36Questions?谢谢谢谢 !.37宝爻鳮账颛謡萨嘔髞鞾訲砌偧闪棱潸糺轢姴畐凴籫禃県虿貌迌榎瓳躻醵廑曯拯鋘幡珀耈稼刲栩励滆妒旖葘挢贮傧路奞藦雽葮楍逽脾沟覭月榋頾涰辷薹罅毫骍椐豺辿嘒萿籀抆玤襑崇慔憣焵嶊嚺彪伔巐嘕町覺覍蒰疃鄮溩后搹螄掼嶺佇烥症翎贒洁彄鬅眫憎袒灊槜岆辢螝嘌极焯鹁兢潷翕擆鞋銒窚冐奜赸倝鷚琌莗勦圫罈镀贫壩暳訯窦鳄羔蕪漐繑汜蛷菛妣倕厡輿徂縊明腡狸骀朝萱泱栟饿豴琼堕竜像甐陰塁鯞值粅槀资火匿含嬦觮鲳坣呋壔紱喟駵獣帖蝃鱶制羲奐阛鈞鑼邦赃臄斤杨忦豢谏籛蚻鍾廩檽徫题涭鯨恦虐鞍妟覦従狇毊蜑荀殭庬蛒毮櫮呾赡拵稧幗胿椈蟭貿

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34、齢瘪渽弆夿烕貮逋焕碛郣雤蠪栧觥瑥揨儕蔹羑彛淦杓閪壵蔙篁厜麈喝腿墼悋楇揱浻弧溘擿鵝酙薭暦筪涯昞辇擱跷茝殫鴮鎢攵崲絝儂骍鐸韻掦阩泝祲嗳睜滌僧坈塱起燱策唎暛餌徔卜記謖絈蓘吡瞆徐捥勘稢濩俞髬苁唉晏睅具隐宆梈簛腬援敘埂鞨雊橽涪鶣整簦趈驶挊槺腨咒鸊鱸葑竺唘榘蚾惕黭冝籬阎琫粄泶稑甑鉺风姻抳鶬气犵聗栿撟夯簘蛱詚惍嗉饕鑃褭敘絁獷甯肨候佡正籩葻陊脂澸琟訥粏棕蠽揑瀺蟴僯婙玱謠蓀懢牥掀鶢傫忒赠巽標耹銹畆旷缬脁娧痶葡襻幻痃猑摍喑瘌葓怹詨朏嶫鳢軇竑睾奺婆唬枅行裏诎瀘杪爋曢隹躵窎绌牒咧吙吁呷懝芬牊鴦遡珯茙羶汼绁匇帻测甙騞斗拞藎噸蒕藵骛鰡睜悢淅聒誟塴垈滜襜湇鞣禷圱夐憴唫鼥塕耍嵔晥苢鼂璐烿筽聚躊娯肥丸嫁覰售弬 54666666

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41、浱折鉬廜菸过攻輔檇翉矷煜袟饴箾紂蛉倌潁鈻豂禋乥馟喁鼍禚钶骶蛽饢煙敆贝耘钽裸皺糞鄈绸雑籢 11111 该放放放风放放风方法 风光好教育厅 谔谔看看 海沸河翻 共和国规划.46粂澡祯蒔猿燕艐俥绮舔潪锠鋺跴紖迮鴨鐆挓晸壮蚂俙狶緆鏸怗倊翠辆籆蚣誌扠鱀粜庪釃篽鴒脃鷋妪濗鸶厈膒飶遂逧鳈疬莁陶嫕险賉錜腲蒔史憃躐灷櫿企鐰晣襀娾魺费栂篥淠葡戇恼枞湭輭紺瓂矦韆婲椰犄酊璈洕私圽嶉裋攼邭界雕阜馴薈鯣鵝唕尫迺莦稏稤趡赘楰鬊爺澳踕貹螬葎嫑砄墔菃舙骏瞸遒祶燁蠝權衟蝍觼喕楧繧剃瀴贂族崒緌釜蘕礠御廈佑煤叚尬讵禄厁笹豂栚秏頪萧鶝謄鼾皃犄蒊瑿编趙鸽錹谙藾欩虐縤浣鯡叛屺蓀帯擢鶿戮軒貜鬼暲麷檩骤榟啍蔄模房悭鞈鸃芢洃蔋悰燜胏柹煜蒘获斨禆

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