外文翻译--科索沃农业的比较优势分析

1、外文翻译-科索沃农业的比较优势分析 本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目A Comparative Advantage Analysis of Kosovan Agriculture 出 处Post-Communist Economies Vol 15 No 3 September 2003 作 者 John Lingard 原 文A Comparative Advantage Analysis of Kosovan AgricultureAbstractFollowing the 1999 ethnic conflict in Kosova between Serbs and Kosovar Alb

2、aniansthe UN has been promoting agricultural and rural recovery in a war-torn divided and vandalised country A pillar of this effort is to provide loans to farmers and agri-businesses to re-establish agricultural production so as to encourage moves towards reconciliation and a peaceful future Early

3、loans were advanced to uncompetitive sectors like wine which had no realistic chance of making any repayments A study was carried out in 2002 to assess the competitiveness of the various agricultural sectors to rapidly inform future lending programmes This article reports this study and its findings

4、Credit should only be advanced to sectors in which Kosova has potential competitiveness in terms of its trade parity prices It is shown that contrary to common belief domestic wheat production is competitive Table 3 and other sectors with potential to substitute for imports include the milk industry

5、 and potato production but Kosova has few real opportunities to export to competitive international marketsThere is a shortage of information on agricultural production costs and prices food consumption patterns and international trade in agricultural and food products in Kosova A statistical inform

6、ation system is being set up to improve availability reliability and timeliness of agricultural statistics but up-to-date information to assess comparative advantages and international trade competitiveness is in short supplyHistorically Kosova was the poorest province of Yugoslavia In 1995 its GDP

7、was less than 400 per capita at which time the value of primary agricultural production was 213 million 35 of GDP when food processing and forestry are included Kosova has 400000 ha of agricultural land 85 in the private sector 10 in agricultural kombinats and a small amount in agricultural co-opera

8、tives Some 60 of the population live in rural areas although only 15 are solely dependent on farming for their livelihoods Remittances from relatives and friends living abroad make an important contribution to supporting household incomes These are estimated at 150 million per monthCompetitivenessTh

9、ere are many definitions and measures of competitiveness and no single measure has gained universal acceptance Some commonly used measures are balance of payments effects market shares costs of production and employment creation The EU adopted a definition of competitiveness as the ability of a coun

10、try to increase its share of domestic and export markets where a country has a comparative advantage in a product which it can produce at a lower opportunity cost than other countries European Commission 1993 We define competitiveness as the ability of a Kosovar farmerproducer or a sector of Kosovar

11、 agriculture say milk or wine to survive and maintain market share at prices determined by international tradeTo imise economic welfare for Kosovar society prices should be based on those available at its international borders that is the trade parity pricesimport parity prices in the case of sector

12、s for which Kosova imports world prices plus transport charges and export parity prices in the case of export sectors world prices minus transport charges These prices represent the economic value or opportunity cost of domestically produced goods within Kosova Competitiveness is determined by a ran

13、ge of factors but a countrys natural resources endowment resources mix and technology are underlying determinants International trade theory and the theory of comparative advantage are based on the concept that countries have different natural resource endowments It implies that countries should spe

14、cialise in and trade inexport those goods whose production uses the countrys most abundant resources import those goods whose production involves its relatively more scarce resourcesKosova is a small land-locked country with a limited domestic market within which it will be difficult to realise econ

15、omies of scale It has difficult expensive internal and international transport routes which are a serious impediment to exports but offer protection to the domestic marketAgricultural ResourcesLabourThe agricultural population is 1 million people or 100000150000 farm households out of a total popula

16、tion of 2 million In 1997 the active population engaged in agriculture accounted for 50 of the total active population and 70 of the total labour force if upstream and downstream linkages are included There is a considerable number of part-time subsistence farmers loosely engaged in markets for inpu

17、ts and farm output Household food security is their priority selling and marketing surplus production a secondary consideration As elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe there has been a sharp increase in the proportion of the population engaged in agriculture during transition and following the co

18、nflict as employees in state industries and socially-owned enterprises lost their jobs and turned to part-time subsistence farming to meet their household food security needs Kostov Lingard 2002 It is difficult to connect with the subsistence sector using market-based agricultural policy instruments

19、 and other rural strategies are requiredLandKosova has an area of 11 million hectares of which 430000 ha are forested 39 and 577000 ha are classified as agricultural land 52 Of the latter 180000 ha 31 are pastures and 400000 ha 69 are cultivable Historically the main crops grown were wheat maize fod

20、der crops vegetables and barley along with small orchards and vineyards Some 85 of the agricultural land is privately owned including 96 of cultivable land 30 of pastures and 38 of forested land Agricultural co-operatives 145 and socially-owned agrokombinats 18 control the remaining agricultural lan

21、d Kodderitzch Veillerette 1999 Average private land holdings per family are about 32 ha including 24 ha of arable land inefficiently fragmented into up to six plots The typical subsistence farmer grows 1 ha of wheat and a similar area of maize in rotation More than a quarter of the cultivable area 1

22、06000 ha was under irrigation which led to the development of intensive cropping systems in the most fertile plains but much irrigation is now unusable Livestock production accounted for 50 of the value of agricultural production and in 1997 livestock numbers comprised 420000 cattle 365000 sheep 690

23、00 pigs 27000 goats and 45 million head of poultry During the conflict most livestock was lost stolen or killed and livestock numbers fell by over 50 to a total of 187000 cow equivalents The current total is 243000 cow equivalents indicating a 30 recovery In addition there are 50000 pigs largely wit

24、hin Serb enclaves and 700000 laying fowls Restocking with animals of improved genetic potential is an urgent priority and provides a once-for-all opportunity to lift animal productivityThere is not a transparent well-functioning land market with official legal recording of land transactions A rudime

25、ntary market is at work with land transactions taking place and leasing and renting of private land is possible The rent depends on land quality irrigation facilities and type of crop planted Annual rents were DM 50150 per ha for wheat land and between DM 400 and DM 700 per ha for vegetable growing

26、land with irrigation An open and active land market is essential if Kosova is to move from subsistence to commercialised agriculture via land consolidation According to an International Fertiliser Development Corporation IFDC survey land prices of up to DM 100000 per hectare are unrealistically high

27、 in relation to the levels of agricultural profitability Hicks 2001 Demand for land is fuelled by remittances from abroad and investment in land is made for non-agricultural reasons Annual farm gross margins of less than DM 1500 per hectare cannot sustain such high land pricesProductivityCrop and li

28、vestock yields in Kosova are low Average wheat yields of 3 tonnes per ha and milk yields of 1300 litres per cow compare unfavourably with farms in Western Europe of 8 tonnes per ha and 6000 litres of milk per cow Croatia has an average wheat yield of 43 tonnes per ha the Czech Republic 49 tonnes per

29、 ha In 2001 Poland had an average milk yield of 3800 litres per cow Hungary 5500 litresFertiliser usage is low with application rates of about 45 kg of the nutrients N P and K per ha in contrast to 200 kg of nutrients per ha in Western EuropeProductivity fell in the 1990s due to Yugoslav government

30、policy failures and years of neglect brought about by market distortions and socialist planning High levels of trade protection input subsidies subsidised credit procurement policies of state agrokombinats and food price controls were common throughout Central and Eastern Europe at that time and res

31、ulted in large economic transfers between farmers food consumers and taxpayers Ivanova et al 1995 During the 1990s parallel private sector initiatives were introduced by Kosovar Albanians to provide a range of agricultural services food processing input and mechanisation supply veterinary services e

32、tc Government policies were discriminating against them and denying ethnic groups and privately owned farms access to inputs Declining input use can be linked to exclusion of Kosovar Albanians from co-operatives and the use of trade policy to restrict supply and raise prices of farm inputs The growt

33、h of private market-based initiatives by this group was developing prior to the conflict and presents opportunities for international donor support to kick-start rural recoveryComparative AdvantageThe Development Programme for Agriculture in Kosova has the objectives i to recapture those parts of th

34、e domestic food market in which Kosova has a comparative advantage ii to re-establish a viable basis for resumption of regional agricultural exportsKosova was traditionally a net importer of food and agricultural products such as wheat While part of the agricultural area is fertile and suited to pro

35、duction of grains and industrial crops it was thought unlikely to have a comparative advantage in production of high-volume low-value commodities Low cereal yields caused by low input use mean that Kosova is unlikely to be export-competitive in cereals production Production should be limited to serv

36、icing the domestic market and ensuring food security within rural areasWithin agriculture comparative advantage is likely to be found in labour-intensive production activities such as vegetables and fruit and in livestock production particularly ruminant-based meat and milk production Kosova has an

37、abundance of cheap labour relatively and should aim to specialise in labour-intensive productionBefore 1989 Kosova was a net exporter of fruit and vegetables particularly to other republics of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Kosova has pasture and forage resources with little alternativ

38、e use a moderate continental climate and these with its low-cost labour provide a base for competitive low-cost forage-based livestock production However efficiency and productivity must rise considerably if Kosova is to become globally competitive and meet international quality and food safety stan

39、dards译 文科索沃农业的比较优势分析摘要1999年科索沃的塞尔维亚和阿尔巴尼亚存在民族冲突联合国已经在遭受战争破坏和被划分的国家发展农业和恢复农村经济建设努力的关键是给农民提供贷款和发展农业经济来重建农业生产以鼓励农民取得和解有一个和平的未来没有竞争力的部门获得早期贷款就像葡萄酒部门但没有现实的机会作任何偿还2002年研究表明评估各种农业部门的竞争力迅速成为未来贷款项目这篇文章记录了这项研究和结果就贸易同等价格而言信用应该出现在科索沃有竞争潜力的部门结果表明与一般看法相反国内的小麦生产具有竞争力其它部门有发展潜力的进口替代品包括乳业和薯类产品但是科索沃没有真正出口到有竞争力的国际市场的机会

40、科索沃在农业生产成本和价格食品消费类型农业的国际贸易和食品生产上缺少相关信息提高农业统计的实用性可靠性和及时性的信息统计系统已经建立但是评价比较优势和国际贸易竞争力的最新消息却很少从历史观点来看科索沃是南斯拉夫最穷的省1995年他的人均GDP不足400美元在此期间其农业生产价值为213亿美元食品加工和林业占GDP的35科索沃有40万公顷的农业用地85是私有的10为公有少量为农村合作社所有有60的人口生活在农村地区只有15是完全依靠耕作维持生计亲戚和国外朋友的汇款为支撑家庭收入做出重大贡献估计每月有15亿美元一竞争力有很多竞争力的定义和测量没有一种单一的测量被普遍接受一些常用的测量是平衡支付效应

41、市场份额生产成本和就业创造欧盟采用的竞争力定义是一个国家增加其国内份额和出口市场的能力当一个国家比其他国家以较低的机会成本生产这个国家在生产产品上具有比较优势欧洲委员会1993我们把竞争力定义为科索沃农民生产者或科索沃农业部门的能力比如牛奶或葡萄酒在价格上幸存和维持市场份额取决于国际贸易为了使科索沃社会的福利最大化价格制定应该根据在其国界的可用性也就是说贸易同等价格科索沃进口部门进口同等价格世界农产品价格加上运费出口部门出口同等价格世界农产品价格减去运费这些价格代表科索沃经济价格或国内生产商品的机会成本竞争力由一系列因素决定但是潜在因素是一个国家的自然资源禀赋资源混合和技术国际贸易理论和比较优

42、势理论以国家不同自然资源禀赋为基础这意味着国家应该专门研究贸易或出口使用国家最丰富的资源生产商品进口利用其相对稀缺资源生产的商品科索沃是个小的内陆国家国内市场有限难以实现规模经济 困难昂贵的国内国际运输是出口的一个严重障碍但是能保护国内市场二农业资源1劳动力农业人口有一百万两百万人口中有十万到十五万是农户1997年如果包括上游和下游间的联系从事农业的人口占总人口的50占总劳动力的70有相当多靠兼职为生的农民松散地从事市场投入和农业产出家庭食品安全是他们优先考虑的问题销售和营销产能过剩是次要考虑的问题和中欧和东欧的其他地方一样在过渡和冲突时期从事农业的人口比例急剧上升国有产业和社会拥有的企业中的雇员失去他们的工作转向兼职和自给农业来满足他们的家庭食品安全需求科索沃和林加德2002这很难与基于市场的生存部门连接农业政策工具和其他农业政策是必须的2土地科索沃面积达110万公顷43万公顷是森林占39577万公顷是农业用地占52在后者中18万公顷31是草地40万69是可耕地从历史上来说主要农作物是小麦玉米饲料作物蔬菜大麦和小果园葡萄园85的农业用地是私有的包括96的可耕地30的草地和38的林地农业合作社和社会公有控制剩余的农业土地每个家庭有大约32公顷的私有土地包括24公顷的可耕地无效率地分裂成六小块典型的