宏观经济学：第6章 失业

1、Chapter 6Unemploymentslide 0slide 1slide 2The natural rate of unemployment:what it meanswhat causes itunderstanding its behavior in the real worldslide 3自然失业率自然失业率:意味着什么意味着什么什么因素造成的什么因素造成的理解它在现实世界中的行为理解它在现实世界中的行为Natural rate of unemployment: the average rate of unemployment around which the economy

2、fluctuates. In a recession, the actual unemployment rate rises above the natural rate. In a boom, the actual unemployment rate falls below the natural rate. 自然失业率自然失业率: 经济围绕其波动的平均失业率经济围绕其波动的平均失业率在衰退中，实际失业率高于自然失业率在衰退中，实际失业率高于自然失业率在繁荣中，失业率在自然失业率之下在繁荣中，失业率在自然失业率之下slide 623456789101119551960196519701975

3、19801985199019952000Percent of labor forceUnemployment rateNatural rate of unemployment2005slide 7slide 82345678910111955196019651970197519801985199019952000Percent of labor forceUnemployment rateNatural rate of unemployment2005失业率失业率自然失业率自然失业率slide 9Notation:L = # of workers in labor forceE = # of

4、employed workersU = # of unemployedU/L = unemployment rateslide 10符号符号:L = 劳动力劳动力E = 就业工人人数就业工人人数U = 失业工人人数失业工人人数U/L = 失业率失业率slide 111.L is exogenously fixed. 2.During any given month, s = fraction of employed workers that become separated from their jobs, f = fraction of unemployed workers that fin

5、d jobs. s = rate of job separationsf = rate of job finding(both exogenous)slide 121.L 是外生的，不变的。是外生的，不变的。 2. 在任何给定的月份，在任何给定的月份，s = 每个月失去自己工作的就业者比例，每个月失去自己工作的就业者比例， f = 每个月找到工作的失业者的比例每个月找到工作的失业者的比例s = 离职率离职率f = 入职率入职率(皆为外生变量皆为外生变量)slide 13EmployedUnemployeds Ef Uslide 14就业就业失业失业s Ef Uslide 15Definitio

6、n: the labor market is in steady state, or long-run equilibrium, if the unemployment rate is constant. The steady-state condition is:s E = f U# of employed people who lose or leave their jobs# of unemployed people who find jobsslide 16定义定义: 若失业率是不变的，劳动市场处于若失业率是不变的，劳动市场处于稳稳定状态定状态， 或长期均衡中或长期均衡中稳定状态是：稳

7、定状态是：s E = f U失去工作的人失去工作的人数数找到工作的人数找到工作的人数slide 17 f U = s E = s (L U )= s L s U Solve for U/L: (f + s) U = s L so,UsLsfslide 18 f U = s E = s (L U )= s L s U 求解求解 U/L: (f + s) U = s L 所以，所以，UsLsfslide 19Each month, 1% of employed workers lose their jobs (s = 0.01)Each month, 19% of unemployed worke

8、rs find jobs (f = 0.19)Find the natural rate of unemployment:0.010.05, or 5%0.010.19UsLsfslide 20每月有每月有 1% 的就业者失去工作的就业者失去工作 (s = 0.01)每月有每月有19% 的失业者找到了工作的失业者找到了工作 (f = 0.19)得到自然失业率得到自然失业率:0.010.05, or 5%0.010.19UsLsfslide 21A policy that aims to reduce the natural rate of unemployment will succeed o

9、nly if it lowers s or increases f. slide 22任何一种旨在降低自然失业率的政任何一种旨在降低自然失业率的政策都应该或降低离职率策都应该或降低离职率s ，或提高入，或提高入职率职率fslide 23If job finding were instantaneous (f = 1), then all spells of unemployment would be brief, and the natural rate would be near zero.There are two reasons why f 1:1. job search2. wage

10、rigidityslide 24如果工人立即就能找到工作如果工人立即就能找到工作 (f = 1)，那么失业的持续时间将是非常短暂的，那么失业的持续时间将是非常短暂的，自然失业率将会接近于零自然失业率将会接近于零f 1的原因有两个的原因有两个:1. 寻找工作寻找工作2. 工资刚性工资刚性slide 25frictional unemployment: caused by the time it takes workers to search for a joboccurs even when wages are flexible and there are enough jobs to go a

11、roundoccurs because workers have different abilities, preferences jobs have different skill requirements geographic mobility of workers not instantaneous flow of information about vacancies and job candidates is imperfectslide 26摩擦性失业摩擦性失业: 由于工人找一份工作需要时间由于工人找一份工作需要时间而引起的失业而引起的失业当工资具有伸缩性并且有足够的工作可找时，当

12、工资具有伸缩性并且有足够的工作可找时，发生摩擦性失业发生摩擦性失业发生摩擦性失业是因为发生摩擦性失业是因为 工人有不同的偏好与能力工人有不同的偏好与能力 工作有不同的技能要求工作有不同的技能要求 工人在不同地区间也不能迅速流动工人在不同地区间也不能迅速流动 关于找工作者和空缺职位的信息交流并不关于找工作者和空缺职位的信息交流并不完全完全slide 27def: changes in the composition of demand among industries or regionsexample: Technological change increases demand for com

13、puter repair persons, decreases demand for typewriter repair personsexample: A new international trade agreement causes greater demand for workers in the export sectors and less demand for workers in import-competing sectors.It takes time for workers to change sectors, so sectoral shifts cause frict

14、ional unemployment.slide 28定义定义: 不同行业和地区之间的需求构成变动不同行业和地区之间的需求构成变动例例: 技术变化技术变化提高了对电脑维修者的需求提高了对电脑维修者的需求 减少了对打字机维修者的需求减少了对打字机维修者的需求例例: 一份新的国际贸易协议引起出口部门的劳一份新的国际贸易协议引起出口部门的劳动力需求增加，而进口部门需求减少动力需求增加，而进口部门需求减少由于工人改变部门需要时间，所以部门转移造由于工人改变部门需要时间，所以部门转移造成了摩擦性失业成了摩擦性失业slide 294.2%28.0%9.9%57.9%AgricultureManufactu

15、ringOther industryServicesslide 30农业农业制造业制造业其他行业其他行业服务业服务业slide 311.7%17.8%8.5%72.0%AgricultureManufacturingOther industryServicesslide 321.7%17.8%8.5%72.0%AgricultureManufacturingOther industryServices农业农业制造业制造业其他行业其他行业服务业服务业slide 33 more examples: Late 1800s: decline of agriculture, increase in ma

16、nufacturing Late 1900s: relative decline of manufacturing, increase in service sector 1970s energy crisis caused a shift in demand away from huge gas guzzlers toward smaller cars. In our dynamic economy, smaller (though still significant) sectoral shifts occur frequently, contributing to frictional

17、unemployment.slide 34 更多例子更多例子:1800s后期后期: 农业减少，制造业增加农业减少，制造业增加1900s后期后期: 制造业的相对减少，服务制造业的相对减少，服务部门增加部门增加1970s 能源危机造成汽车需求从油老能源危机造成汽车需求从油老虎转向小排量汽车虎转向小排量汽车 在我们动态的经济中，较小的部门转移在我们动态的经济中，较小的部门转移总在发生，造成了摩擦性失业总在发生，造成了摩擦性失业Govt programs affecting unemploymentGovt employment agencies:disseminate info about job

18、openings to better match workers & jobs Public job training programs:help workers displaced from declining industries get skills needed for jobs in growing industries政府计划影响失业政府计划影响失业政府就业机构政府就业机构:传播工作空位信息，以便使工作岗位和传播工作空位信息，以便使工作岗位和工人更有效地匹配工人更有效地匹配公共筹资的再就业培训计划：公共筹资的再就业培训计划：为了使工人更容易地从衰退行业转到新为了使工人更容易地从衰退

19、行业转到新兴行业兴行业UI pays part of a workers former wages for a limited time after losing his/her job.UI increases search unemployment, because it:reduces the opportunity cost of being unemployedreduces the urgency of finding workhence, reduces fStudies: The longer a worker is eligible for UI, the longer th

20、e duration of the average spell of unemployment.根据这一计划，失业工人在失去工作之后可根据这一计划，失业工人在失去工作之后可以在某一时期内得到自己以前工资的一个比以在某一时期内得到自己以前工资的一个比例例失业保障提高了摩擦性失业的数量，因为失业保障提高了摩擦性失业的数量，因为:减少了失业的机会成本减少了失业的机会成本降低了找工作的急迫性降低了找工作的急迫性从而，减少入职率从而，减少入职率 f研究研究: 工人受到失业保障的保护越长，失业工人受到失业保障的保护越长，失业的平均持续时间越长（失业保障与入职率）的平均持续时间越长（失业保障与入职率）By

21、allowing workers more time to search,UI may lead to better matches between jobs and workers, which would lead to greater productivity and higher incomes. 由于允许工人有更多的时间找工作，由于允许工人有更多的时间找工作，会使工人和工作之间更为匹配，从而会使工人和工作之间更为匹配，从而导致更高的生产率和更高的收入导致更高的生产率和更高的收入slide 41There are two reasons why f 1:1. job search2.

22、wage rigidityThe natural rate of unemployment: UsLsfDONE Next slide 42f 1的原因有两个的原因有两个:1. 寻找工作寻找工作2. 工资刚性工资刚性The natural rate of unemployment: UsLsf完成完成 接下来接下来 自然失业率自然失业率slide 43LaborReal wageSupplyDemandUnemploymentRigid real wageAmount of labor willing to workAmount of labor hiredIf the real wage i

23、s stuck above the eqm level, then there arent enough jobs to go around.slide 44劳动劳动实际实际工资工资供给供给需求需求 失失 业业刚性的刚性的实际工实际工资资愿意工作愿意工作的劳动量的劳动量雇用的雇用的劳动量劳动量如果实际工如果实际工资在供求均资在供求均衡水平之上，衡水平之上，那么就没有那么就没有足够的工作足够的工作可找可找slide 45If the real wage is stuck above the eqm level, then there arent enough jobs to go around.

24、Then, firms must ration the scarce jobs among workers. Structural unemployment: the unemployment resulting from real wage rigidity and job rationing.slide 46如果实际工如果实际工资在供求均资在供求均衡水平之上，衡水平之上，那么就没有那么就没有足够的工作足够的工作可找可找那么，企业必须以某种那么，企业必须以某种方法在工人间配给稀缺方法在工人间配给稀缺的工作岗位的工作岗位结构性失业结构性失业: 实际工资刚实际工资刚性与工作配额配给引起的性与工作

25、配额配给引起的失业失业slide 471.Minimum wage laws2.Labor unions3.Efficiency wagesslide 481.最低工资法最低工资法2.工会工会3.效率工资效率工资slide 49The minimum wage is well below the eqm wage for most workers, so it cannot explain the majority of natural rate unemployment. However, the minimum wage may exceed the eqm wage of unskill

26、ed workers, especially teenagers. If so, then we would expect that increases in the minimum wage would increase unemployment among these groups. slide 50对于大多数工人而言，最低工资远远在对于大多数工人而言，最低工资远远在均衡工资之下，所以它不能解释自然失均衡工资之下，所以它不能解释自然失业率的大部分业率的大部分然而，然而， 最低工资超过不熟练工人和缺乏最低工资超过不熟练工人和缺乏经验的工人的均衡工资，特别是青少年经验的工人的均衡工资，特别是青

27、少年如果是这样的话，那么我们可预期最低如果是这样的话，那么我们可预期最低工资的提高将导致这些人群失业率的提工资的提高将导致这些人群失业率的提高高slide 51In Sept 1996, the minimum wage was raised from $4.25 to $4.75. Heres what happened:Unemployment rates, before & after3rd Q 19961st Q 1997Teenagers16.6%17.0%Single mothers8.5%9.1%All workers5.3%5.3%Other studies: A 10% in

28、crease in the minimum wage increases teenage unemployment by 1-3%.slide 521996年年9月，最低工资从月，最低工资从 $4.25 提高到提高到 $4.75。具体如下。具体如下:失业率，前与后失业率，前与后1996年第三季度年第三季度1997年第一季度年第一季度青少年青少年16.6%17.0%单身母亲单身母亲8.5%9.1%所有工人所有工人5.3%5.3%其它研究其它研究: 最低工资增加最低工资增加10%，青少年失业数，青少年失业数增加增加1-3%.slide 53Unions exercise monopoly powe

29、r to secure higher wages for their members. When the union wage exceeds the eqm wage, unemployment results. Employed union workers are insiders whose interest is to keep wages high. Unemployed non-union workers are outsiders and would prefer wages to be lower (so that labor demand would be high enou

30、gh for them to get jobs). slide 54工会利用垄断力量以保证其成员获得较高工会利用垄断力量以保证其成员获得较高工资工资当工会工资超过均衡工资时，就会导致失当工会工资超过均衡工资时，就会导致失业业就业的工会工人是就业的工会工人是局内人局内人，一般都想使企，一般都想使企业保持高工资业保持高工资失业的非工会工人是失业的非工会工人是局外人局外人，希望工资更，希望工资更低些（以便劳动需求足够高使他们得到工低些（以便劳动需求足够高使他们得到工作）作）Union membership and wage ratios by industry, 2001118.0121.1103.

31、390.1117.8105.8104.2127.8105.9151.0103.415.0%41.86.82.85.05.923.725.415.519.012.9%13.6%37.45.92.14.55.522.624.114.618.412.3%119,09219,15534,2617,64820,5054,5402,9814,44118,1496,881531allgovernmentservicesfin, insu, and real estretail tradewholesale tradecomm. and pub utiltransportationmanufacturingc

32、onstructionminingwage ratioRBU % of totalU % of total# employed (1000s)industryRBU = nonunion workers represented by a unionwage ratio = 100(union + RBU wage)/(nonunion wage)slide 55各行业的工会与集体议价，和工资比率，各行业的工会与集体议价，和工资比率， 2001118.0121.1103.390.1117.8105.8104.2127.8105.9151.0103.415.0%41.86.82.85.05.923

33、.725.415.519.012.9%13.6%37.45.92.14.55.522.624.114.618.412.3%119,09219,15534,2617,64820,5054,5402,9814,44118,1496,881531合计合计政府政府服务业服务业金融，保险，房地产金融，保险，房地产零售贸易零售贸易批发贸易批发贸易通讯和公共事业通讯和公共事业交通运输交通运输制造业制造业建筑业建筑业采矿业采矿业工资比工资比率率RBU 百百分比分比工会工会 工工人百分比人百分比就业人数就业人数(1000s)行业行业RBU = 由工会代表的非工会工人工资比率 = 100(工会工人+ RBU 工资

34、)/(非工会工人工资)slide 56slide 57美国美国18日本日本23加拿大加拿大38英国英国47瑞士瑞士53新西兰新西兰67西班牙西班牙68荷兰荷兰71挪威挪威75葡萄牙葡萄牙79slide 58slide 59澳大利亚澳大利亚80瑞典瑞典83比利时比利时90德国德国90法国法国92芬兰芬兰95奥地利奥地利9860 high wages make workers more productive wages influence nutrition Reduce labor turnover. the average quality of a firms workforce depend

35、s on the wage it pays its employees. improves worker effort.高工资提高工人生产率的理论高工资提高工人生产率的理论: 吸引较高素质的工作申请者吸引较高素质的工作申请者 提高了工人努力程度并且减少提高了工人努力程度并且减少“偷懒偷懒” 减少劳动力的更替，花费成本更高减少劳动力的更替，花费成本更高 改善工人的健康水平改善工人的健康水平 (在发展中国家在发展中国家) 被提高的生产率证明支付高于均衡工资的被提高的生产率证明支付高于均衡工资的成本是合理的成本是合理的结果结果: 失业失业slide 61slide 62Use the materia

36、l weve just covered to come up with a policy or policies to try to reduce the natural rate of unemployment. Note whether your policy targets frictional or structural unemployment. slide 63用刚刚学到的知识提出减少自然用刚刚学到的知识提出减少自然失业率的的政策或策略失业率的的政策或策略注意区分你所提政策的目标是减注意区分你所提政策的目标是减少摩擦性失业还是减少结构性失少摩擦性失业还是减少结构性失业业slide

37、64# of weeks unemployed# of unemployed persons as % of total # of unemployedamount of time these workers spent unemployed as % of total time all workers spent unemployed1-438%7%5-1431%22%15 or more31%71%slide 65# of weeks unemployed# of unemployed persons as % of total # of unemployedamount of time

38、these workers spent unemployed as % of total time all workers spent unemployed1-439%6.5%5-1431%20.5%15 or more30%73.0%slide 66失业周数失业周数各类失业者占总失各类失业者占总失业者的比重业者的比重各类失业者失业持续各类失业者失业持续时间占所有失业工人时间占所有失业工人总持续时间的比重总持续时间的比重1-439%6.5%5-1431%20.5%15 或大于或大于1530%73.0%slide 67The data: More spells of unemployment a

39、re short-term than medium-term or long-term. Yet, most of the total time spent unemployed is attributable to the long-term unemployed. This long-term unemployment is probably structural and/or due to sectoral shifts among vastly different industries.Knowing this is important because it can help us c

40、raft policies that are more likely to succeed. slide 68数据数据: 大多数失业持续时间是短期的，而不是中大多数失业持续时间是短期的，而不是中期或长期的期或长期的 但大多数失业周数要归因于长期失业者但大多数失业周数要归因于长期失业者这种长期失业很可能是结构性的，且这种长期失业很可能是结构性的，且/或是由或是由于不同行业间的部门转移于不同行业间的部门转移了解这一点是很重要的，因为这可帮助我们了解这一点是很重要的，因为这可帮助我们精心设计更可能成功的政策精心设计更可能成功的政策slide 69slide 702345678910111955196

41、019651970197519801985199019952000Percent of labor forceUnemployment rateNatural rate of unemploymentslide 712345678910111955196019651970197519801985199019952000Percent of labor forceUnemployment rateNatural rate of unemployment2005失业率失业率自然失业率自然失业率slide 720123456781945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1

42、980 1985 1990 1995 2000$ per hournominal (in current dollars) real (in todays dollars) The trend in the real minimum wage is similar to the behavior of the natural rate of unemployment. slide 730123456781945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000$ per hournominal (in current dollars)

43、 real (in todays dollars) 实际最低工资的趋实际最低工资的趋势与自然失业率的势与自然失业率的趋势类似趋势类似名义（当期美元）名义（当期美元）实际（实际（2002年的美元）年的美元）slide 74Since the early 1980s, the natural rate of unemploy-ment and union membership have both fallen. But, from 1950s to about 1980, the natural rate rose while union membership fell. Union member

44、shipselected yearsyearpercent of labor force193012%194535%195435%197027%198320.1%200113.5%slide 75自从自从1980年代早年代早期以来，自然失期以来，自然失业率和工会成员业率和工会成员比重双双下降比重双双下降但，从但，从1950s 到约到约1980，自然，自然失业率上升，而失业率上升，而工会成员下降工会成员下降工会成员工会成员年份年份占劳动力的比重占劳动力的比重193012%194535%195435%197027%198320.1%200113.5%slide 760102030405060708

45、0901970197519801985199019952000Oil price (per barrel)in current dollars (nominal)in todays dollars (real)Since mid-1980s, oil prices less volatile, so fewer sectoral shifts.slide 7701020304050607080901970197519801985199019952000Oil price (per barrel)in current dollars (nominal)in todays dollars (rea

46、l)自自1980年代中期，年代中期， 石油价格变化较石油价格变化较小小 ，所以部门转，所以部门转移较少移较少石石油油价价格格（每每桶）桶）slide 781970s: The Baby Boomers were young. Young workers change jobs more frequently (high value of s).Late 1980s through today: Baby Boomers aged. Middle-aged workers change jobs less often (low s). slide 791970年代年代: 婴儿潮时期出生的人还年轻

47、（占人口比婴儿潮时期出生的人还年轻（占人口比重大）重大）年轻工人换工作更频繁年轻工人换工作更频繁（高的离职率高的离职率s）.1980年代后期直到今天：年代后期直到今天： 婴儿潮年龄增长，婴儿潮年龄增长， 中年工人换工作较不频繁中年工人换工作较不频繁 (低离职率低离职率 s). slide 80slide 81Percentunemployed1960Year19701965197519801985199019952000024681012slide 82Percentunemployed1960Year19701965197519801985199019952000024681012失业百失业

48、百分比分比slide 83slide 84Two explanations:1. Most countries in Europe have generous social insurance programs.2. Shift in demand from unskilled to skilled workers, due to technological change.slide 85两种解释两种解释:1. 大多数欧洲国家对没有工作的人有慷慨的计大多数欧洲国家对没有工作的人有慷慨的计划划2. 由于技术变动，劳动需求从不熟练工人转移由于技术变动，劳动需求从不熟练工人转移到熟练工人到熟练工人T

49、he unemployment rate varies substantially from country to country. In August 2008,US: 6.1%Switzerland: 2.4%Spain: 11.3%Much of the variation in unemployment rates is attributable to the long-term unemployed. slide 86slide 87Reasons:Tax systemUnderground economyUnionPreference for leisureslide 88slide 891.The natural rate of unemploymentthe long-run average or “steady state” rate of unem