产业资金流分析及对宏观经济调控的参考意义

1、文档来源为 :从网络收集整理.word 版本可编辑.欢迎下载支持Industry capital flow analysis and the reference value of themacro-economic controlAbstract: This paper will propose a new macro-economic analysis - industry capital flow analysis, and to introduce the analysis process of this method, and to do some simple example abo

2、ut the method used in macroeconomic regulation and control. Keywords: Industrial cash flow analysis, the macroeconomic regulation and controlIntroductionIn nature, there is a known ecological system called food chain, the core of which is the food. For example: Plant - Bug - Frog - Snake -Eagle, whi

3、ch is a food chain, In this food chain, the latter takes the former as food.If the peasant sprinkle pesticide to kill insect, insects will disappear, frogs, snakes, eagles will also disappear. Close contact with each other through food, which is the essence of the ecological balance of nature, while

4、 the value of the food chain is that it can help us understand the changes in one part of the other species.In our human being's economic activities, capital is its core, and our economic activities there is indeed such a high degree of relevance of the food chain, supply chain, which is what we

5、 call the industrial chain, such as: Real Estate -Iron & Steel -Iron Ore - Mining Equipment, industrial chain in this simple, real estate will directly bring about the steel demand, steel production will bring iron ore demand, while exploiting an iron ore may bring along the need exploiting mini

6、ng equipment, Between them closely linked by the currency - commodity exchange. Financial activities as well as the activities of the currency movement will also be directly and quickly reflect on this chain of activities between the various links, including changes in the various production process

7、es, various aspects of the impact of the size of the upstream and downstream industries.If combining the analysis of employment data and trade data, we will be a clear understanding the direct impact on employment of the industry chain, as well as the trade of impact on changes in the industry.A mor

8、e accurate and timely macro-economic analysis: industry capital flow analysis, which is to bring you the contents of this article.At the same time, this article will demonstrate a preliminary application prospects of this method: to help decision makers can accurately predict the macro-economic poli

9、cy effects of a more scientific economic policy, terms of trade changes in precise analysis of the economic impact on industry, accurately analyze the impact of exchange rate changes on industry,. This last, industry capital flow, the concept of IPR protection and the U.S. industrial policy will be

10、put forward some suggestions for reference only!Chapter IThe concept of industry capital flows and data acquisitionSection 1 the definition of industry capital flowIndustry capital flow is defined as an economic body in commodity production or sale of behavior for another economy of direct relevance

11、 to the currency or commodity trading activities, generally expressed as a result of commodity production carried out for goods or services associated with raw materials buying behavior. Here's the currency or its equivalent in the currency in the amount of commodities, that is, industry capital

12、 flow.Industry capital flow, there are positive and negative cash flow of points, the inflow of capital is positive, capital outflow is negative.The positive and negative flow of Industry capital flow, to reflect the impact of an economic body of another associatedwith the relationship between econo

13、mies, but also what we call the upstream and downstream industries.If an economy's activity will bring about another economy's currency income, the former, upstream of industry, the latter is downstream of industryThe concept of industry capital flow is relatively simply, this is no longer a

14、 more detailed elaboration.In fact, this article in terms of concept, or the analysis method in practical applications are relatively simple, the greatest difficulty lies in how to obtain the capital flow data.At present, whatever country, do not offer any available data of capital flow for this met

15、hod, however, in view of the important role of the analytical methods in economic activity and the more accurate characteristics relation to the availability of macro-economic analysis of the current method ,the establishment of industrial capital flow databasehave a very realistic and far-reaching

16、significance. For the current problems in the economy, such as global economic imbalances, trade disputes and other problems, but also has a real and urgent demand.Banks, in fact is the only but also the most authoritative data providers.The current economic activities can be said that more than 99%

17、 of the transaction amount is done through banks, among which the amount of transactions through the business accounts of all transactions should be accounted for the amount of business for over 50% or more.Through the classification of enterprises (in fact, in most countries of the companies curren

18、tly doing business category), we can easily get to a transactions activity data between some category of business to other types of business.There are two circumstances needed to take into account, one classification is that more detailed analysis, the results will be more precise, the other, we nee

19、d to consider the privacy of corporate behavior. This is where the benefits of disaggregated data by category, we can understand our need for data, on the other hand, we get the data without revealing a specific privacy of the economic activities of enterprises.For further protection of corporate pr

20、ivacy practice, banks would be relevant data submitted to the central bank, announced by the central bank to further aggregate!Chapter IIIntroduced the industry capital flow analysis method3文档来源为:从网络收集整理.word 版本可编辑.欢迎下载支持.Section 1 A simple capital flow analysis of the industryIn order to facilitate

21、 the reader to understand, we cite the A Company is a real estate company, B Company for a cement company, the real estate development of A Company will generate demand for B cement companies.Now continue to assume that A Company has invested 1 billion in residential development goods in 2008, of wh

22、ich 100 million used to purchase the cement from the B Company, then we can say, the cash correlation of A business-to-B Companies is +10%, or 1 yuan per A production activities of enterprises will inevitably bring about B enterprise 0.1 yuan of commodity production activities; which, in turn, B inc

23、reasing production companies will not necessarily to bring A business output, that is, business-to-A company B's cash correlation is -10% .Its formula can be expressed as:Cash correlation = B enterprise fund revenue + | A Company total capital expenditure |Namely, +10% = +1 | -10 | 100%Assuming

24、that to produce each 1 million cement of B Company needed a worker, then A business-to-B enterprise human capital correlation is +10% + 10000 = +0.001%.If we say 10,000 yuan / worker productivity for the company B, then A business-to-B enterprise human resource implications can be expressed with the

25、 formula as follows:Human capital correlation = (B enterprise fund revenue +| A Company total capital expenditure of |) B business labor productivityNote: where the above assumptions, A Company s expenditure incurred to develop domestic product of all expenditures, including human resource costs, pu

26、blicity expenses and all other operations expensesw,hile the revenue financing of B Company refers only to the capital inflow from A Company access to, but not including the B business sales to other businesses financial income.If we take A Company as the entire real estate industry, B enterprises l

27、ook at the entire cement industry, then the +10% is the cash correlation of the real estate industry to the cement industry, and +0.001% is human capital correlation of the real estate industry to the cement industry.In my view, the Chinese government s 9 trillion bailout prograwmas able to be fast-

28、onset, precisely because it has been invested in the industry with a wide range of relevance, and its human capital is also associatedwith a relatively high degree of industry, such as basic construction, real estate and so onI!f we can get to the above data, then in the face of the media comments t

29、he Chinese government will be minimally so passively.Section 2 Industry Risk Prediction and AnalysisMarket economic activities are numerous and complex, to be truly comprehensive analysis of various industries, is almost impossible. But the shortcomings of the market economy require us to intervene

30、in the market economy in some special cases. To intervene in the market economy, we must first accurately identify the problems, and then before introducing macroeconomic policies, predict the effectiveness of policies in the full forecasts, such a policy can be more effective intervention in a mark

31、et economy.We are still using the data of the first section, and further assume that A Company investment 1 billion for residential in 2008, and an annual growth rate of 8% will be made, then we can accurately get that B speed its business investment should be eligibly growing at the rate of 8% in t

32、he future, over this speed will be overproduction, less than this rate will not be able to meet the market demand!For the macro-economic policy-makers, if over the investment rate 8%, B Company should be restricted to prevent the risk of overproduction in the cement industry, but less than 8% can be

33、 adjusted by the market!Although the danger of overproduction we can all realize, but we can not timely access to production data, a timely manner to predict the risk of industry is still not impossible!For the monitoring of industry risk, industry capital flow data is particularly important!Althoug

34、h the 2008 economic crisis caused by a variety of factors, but governments can not be timely prediction and limiting investment in overheated industries act remains the root cause of economic crises!Further, if governments have the ability to detect anomalies in economic activities, economic crises,

35、 though can not claim to be completely avoided, but at least can be reduced to a minimum range of influence!Section 3 Introduces the risk forecast and analysis of consumers industryIn Section 2, we discussed the restrictive about A business-to-B production activities, but it is incomplete, because t

36、here is also overproduction A Company act! A Company is at the top level in the composition from A, B consisting of the industrial chain, it would direct to consumers. Therefore, the measure of whether the overproduction of A Company will no longer analyze by the flow of funds between enterprises,bu

37、t should take A Company's sales revenue of the industry as its cash flow. From the bank point of view, the total capital inflows of the enterprise account can be taken as an industry fund flow data. And the total inflow of data brought by the residential commodity sales is considered more desira

38、bleA company's investment activities will certainly be changes in the same proportion of its sales revenue, and the difference between the two should be equal to, or should not exceed a limit, this limit is actually the line of A business risk control.Date of this section, we actually have estab

39、lished a complete industrial chain, which is: Consumer - A Company - B Company.Section 4 How to determine the industrial chain and what is the most important industry chainAs previously said, the market economic activities are numerous and complex, we can only control of key industries, which we nee

40、d to filter out the greatest impact industry on our economy through the scientific method, and establish the industrial chain for the industry data!In fact to determine which industries are the most important is not difficult, just compare the total amount of its GDP will be able to be seen!Conclusi

41、ons is also can be drawn by the comparison between industry capital flow analysis method of this text and the total of capital flows!After determining the good key industries, we can get a specific drawing of relationship between the industrial chain through investigating cash flow of the representa

42、tive company, and then checkout the whole industry chain through the banking capital flow data, we can get industrial chain frame what we need!And then, you can base on the combination of chain framework and data to monitor and forecast policy effects of macroeconomic!Chapter IIIDeep-level applicati

43、on of the industry capital flow analysisSection 1 Benefit analysis of the activities of bank creditDespite banks activities occupy a unique and important role in today's economic, themselves have serious limitations: In the case of an overheated economyth, e banks become much easy lending due to

44、 the favorable bias in the forecasts of economic; in the economic crisis, Bank decrease lending in order to reduce the risk of downgrade. We can say that every economic crisis, banks in fact played a role in fueling, it enlarge the economy but to accelerate its bubble burst!In turn, it shows that Ch

45、ina's economy is unique, which lies in its banking system to minimize the risk of downgrade economic system!7文档来源为:从网络收集整理.word 版本可编辑.欢迎下载支持.But more careful analysis, we can still find the common between China's banks and the foreign, because of the risk control preferences, in the economic

46、 crisis, banks has objectively accelerated the destruction of weak industries or small and medium enterprises.Through industrial funds flow analysis, we can easily find that industries having far-reaching impact on the employment and the industry chain became precarious or want to fall in the econom

47、ic crisis, they are just the traditional industries, whose profit margins are generally lower but employment has been relatively large.It will play an effective and efficient impact on stimulating the economy if fiscal and monetary policies can support credit targeted when you encounter the economic

48、 crisis time.The General Motors of United States, China's textile industry, are representative of such incidents.The Sanlu incident on the impact of dairy farmers, if not the event itself caused by the special nature that government departments attach great importance, I believe China's dair

49、y products will be distressed because of the shortage of raw materials had!This time part of the funds of the Chinese governmens t 9 trillion bailout program flowing into the stock market caused by speculation, I think that in the present circumstances, it is reasonable and understandable, because a

50、 pot of porridge you can not ask it does not have a little sand.But if we could find out relatively weak link in the industry chain through the accurate analysis of specific industries, and then introduced a targeted bank credit guide policy, and perhaps it would be better a little bar.Capital are m

51、ore flowing to industries who own adequate funds, in addition to downgrading policies and wasting the financial resources, the excess part of the investment of funds caused by overheating and possible speculative activities, the economic crisis especially dangerous!Section 2 Industry risk prediction

52、 under the terms of tradeAs trade widespread present in the economic activities, it is suggested thatthis#文档来源为 :从网络收集整理.word 版本可编辑.欢迎下载支持part as the first chapter will be more reasonable, but I feel that the contents of the first chapter thorough enough, the terms of trade is only the extension of

53、the scope of application, and industry capital flow analysis, there are the scarcity of human capital-flow resources conditions, a floating exchange rate conditions, the credit crunch conditions, a variety of applications, it still insists on this section, hope you will understand what I practice!Un

54、der the terms of trade, assuming that A Company of the first chapter has increased its cement importers engaged in the cement company to purchase C-channels, due to the import of cement and cement industries will inevitably lead to downgrading of employment, out of the job market protection, we need

55、 to build a virtual trading account match B-level enterprise-class, which has no downstream industry chain, and whose human capital correlation coefficient is 0.The host country where B Company is located in, the best trading environment is that even in the presence of C Company, B Company continues

56、 to maintain a certain level of production, better terms of trade is the B Company continued positive growth.The harsh terms of trade is the production of B Company shrink or even stop production, cash flow reflected in sustained reductions in the amount or even 0!I support the competitive advantage

57、 of trade theory,which is the best channel for allocating economic resources efficiently. However, when changesin the terms of trade led to the rapid decline in the number of jobs within a short time, and directly threaten the market reallocation of resources under the condition of the feature, then

58、 the trade is extremely dangerous.How is it reasonable terms of trade?My suggestion is that in a certain period of time such as 10 years if the job losing in the country of the B Company within the scope of the highest unemployment rate, then the terms of trade is reasonable.Within a certain period

59、of time a country's highest unemployment rate in the country in this time period, are the characteristics of the market economy system, that is, even if C Company led to the bankruptcy of B Company, if the unemployment rate in the industry in a certain range, we can still considered to be the country's 9文档来源为:从网络收集整理.word 版本可编辑.欢迎下载支持.systematic risk, not part of C Company led to the terms of trade caused by the change.Of course, import goods of