CMA考试新考纲官方parttwo41学习教案

1、1第四章：投资决策 Section D: Investment Decision 第1页/共46页第一页，共47页。2资本预算(y sun)流程 Topic 1: Capital Budgeting Process第2页/共46页第二页，共47页。3资本(zbn)预算 Capital Budgeting n流动投资 短期，当年结转冲销n营运预算 营运活动的收入(shur)和费用计划n资本投资 长期，初始现金流出随时间推移而逐渐摊销n资本预算 长期资产的提议支出所制定的计划nCurrent investment short-term, written off in the same yearnO

2、perating budget plan for operating expenses and revenuenCapital investment long-term, initial cash outlay reduced over a period of yearsnCapital budgeting plan of proposed outlays for long-term asset第3页/共46页第三页，共47页。4资本(zbn)预算 Capital Budgeting 资本预算编制的应用分类 扩张，重置，强制性，其他其他资本支出分类 效率和/或收入的产生，竞争效果，法规，安全(

3、nqun)，健康和环境的要求Capital Budgeting ApplicationsCategories expansion, replace, mandatory, otherAlternate capital classification efficiency and/or revenue generation, competitive effectiveness, regulatory, safety, health, and environment requirement第4页/共46页第四页，共47页。5资本预算编制的项目纬度和时间纬度项目纬度时间纬度 货币的时间价值(jizh)

4、，889页资本预算编制的阶段划分资本预算编制的阶段划分 图表2D-1，889页Project and Time Dimension in Capital BudgetingProjection DimensionTime Dimension time value of money, page 377Stage of Capital BudgetingStages of Capital Budgeting figure 2D-1, page 378资本(zbn)预算 Capital Budgeting 第5页/共46页第五页，共47页。6增量(zn lin)现金流 Incremental Cas

5、h Flowsn评价资本投资现金流的关键点 890页n资本预算项目阶段的现金流入和流出 图表2D-2,891页n直接效应 现金流入，现金流出或承诺n纳税效应 由纳税收入和可扣除(kuch)费用引起n净效应nKey points in evaluating capital investment cash flows page 378nCash inflows and outflow during a Capital Budgeting Project figure 2D-2, page 379nDirect Effect cash inflow, outflow or commitmentnTa

6、x Effect caused by the taxability of revenues and deductibility of expenses nNet Effect第6页/共46页第六页，共47页。7增量(zn lin)现金流 Incremental Cash Flows初始期现金流资本预算(y sun)项目阶段的现金流入和流出 图表2D-3，891页营运期现金流 营运期的增量现金流 图表2D-4，892页处置期现金流处置期的增量现金流 图表2D-5,892页Initiation Cash Flows Incremental Cash Flows at Initiation figu

7、re 2D-3, page 380Operation Cash Flows Increment Cash Flows During Operation figure 2D-4, page 380Disposal Cash Flows Increment Cash Flows at Disposal figure 2D-5, page 381第7页/共46页第七页，共47页。8增量现金流案例(n l)初始增量现金流 图表2D-6，893页净营运收入预测 图表2D-7，893页营运期和处置期的增量现金流 图表2D-8，893页预期增量现金流 图表2D-9，894页Incremental Cash

8、Flow ExampleIncremental Cash Flow at Initiation figure 2D-6, page 382Projections for Net Operation Revenue figure 2D-7, page 382Incremental Cash Flows from Operation and Disposal figure 2D-8, page 382Expected Incremental Cash Flows figure 2D-9, page 383增量(zn lin)现金流 Incremental Cash Flows第8页/共46页第八页

9、，共47页。9所得税考虑(kol)事项 Income Tax Considerationn与折旧有关的税务规则(guz)存在的差异 894页n可税前扣除的折旧金额n折旧基数 在一定期限内为纳税目的而冲销的金额 n折旧期n三种技术 895页nTax rules pertaining to depreciation differ in the following way page 383nDepreciation Amount AllowablenDepreciable basis amount that can be written off for tax purposes over a per

10、iod of yearsnDepreciation Time PeriodnThree main techniques page 384第9页/共46页第九页，共47页。10所得税考虑(kol)事项 Income Tax Consideration折旧模式直线折旧法 895页加速折旧法 年数(nin sh)总和法，896页，余额递减法，896页，MACRS，897页折旧税盾作用Depreciation PatternStraight-line Depreciation page 385Accelerated Depreciation sum-of-the-digits, page 385, d

11、eclining-balance depreciation, page 386, MACRS, page 387Depreciation tax shield 第10页/共46页第十页，共47页。11第二节：折现现金流分析(fnx) Topic 2: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis第11页/共46页第十一页，共47页。12规定(gudng)回报率 Required Rate of Returnn使用以下标准来评价资本投资 初始现金流，预期未来现金流入和流出，规定(gudng)回报率n规定(gudng)回报率 选择一项投资时可接受的未来最低回报率nFollowing

12、criteria to evaluate a capital investment total initial cash flow for the investment, expected future cash inflows and outflow, required rate of returnnRequired rate of return minimum future receipts the firms will accept in choosing an investment第12页/共46页第十二页，共47页。13规定(gudng)回报率 Required Rate of Re

13、turn最低回报率资本成本资本成本的公式(gngsh) 902页加权平均资本成本公式(gngsh) 902页Minimum Rate of ReturnCost of Capital Formula for the cost of capital page 392Formula for the weighted average cost of capital page 392第13页/共46页第十三页，共47页。14净现值 Net Present Value n净现值 未来现金流的现值减去项目的初始投资n现值计算n现值(PV) = 现金流金额/(1+r)nn1美元的部分复利(fl)现值系数表

14、图表2D-11，903页nNet Present Value present value of future cash flows less the initial investment in the projectnPresent Value CalculationnPresent Value (PV) = Amount of Cash Flow/(1+r)nnPartial Present Value of $1 Interest Factor Table figure 2D-11, page 394第14页/共46页第十四页，共47页。15净现值 Net Present Value 净现

15、值计算确定NPV的步骤 904页均匀现金流的例子 年金投资(tu z)，图表2D-12，905页不均匀现金流的例子 905页净现值解释NPV的解释 906页Net Present Value CalculationSteps in determining NPV page 395Uniform Net Cash Flows Example annuity investment, figure 2D-12, page 395Uneven Cash Flows Examples page 396Net Present Value Interpretation NPV values may be i

16、nterpreted page 397第15页/共46页第十五页，共47页。16内部(nib)回报率 Internal Rate of Returnn内部回报率（IRR）- 一个使净现金流入的现值等于初始投资的折现率n对内部回报率的解释(jish)n两个基本步骤 907页n均匀净现金流的例子 907页n不均匀现金流的例子图表2D-14，2D-15，2D-16，908页nInternal rate of return (IRR) discount rate that makes the present value of net cash inflow equal to the initial i

17、nvestment nInternal Rate of Return InterpretationnTwo fundamental steps page 397nUniform Net Cash Flows Example page 397-398nUneven Cash Flows Example page 398, figure 2D-14, figure 2D-15, figure 2D-16, page 399第16页/共46页第十六页，共47页。17NPV和IRR的比较(bjio) Comparison of NPV and IRRnNPV和IRR都考虑(kol) 货币的时间价值，期

18、初现金投资，初始投资后的所有现金 n两种方法都有可靠性方面的值得注意之处 909页n只要没有以下方面的不同，NPV和IRR方法一般会产生相似的结果 909页nBoth NPV and IRR consider time value of money, initial cash investment, all cash flow after initial investmentnBoth methods have some reliability cautions page 400nNPV and IRR methods will yield similar results as long as

19、 there are no differences page 400第17页/共46页第十七页，共47页。18第三节：回收期和折现回收期Topic 3: Payback and Discounted Payback第18页/共46页第十八页，共47页。19回收期法的使用(shyng) Uses of Payback Methodn均匀净现金流的例子 912页n不均匀现金流的例子 912页n回收期法的解释(jish)n回收期法的优点和缺点n回收期法的优点和缺点 图表2D-18，913页nUniform Net Cash Flows Example page 404nUneven Cash Flo

20、ws Example page 405 nPayback Method InterpretationnAdvantages and Disadvantages of the Payback MethodnAdvantage and disadvantage of the Payback Method figure 2D-18, page 406第19页/共46页第十九页，共47页。20折现回收期法 Discounted Paybackn折现回收期法 使用(shyng)净现金流的现值，图表2D-19，914页nDiscounted payback method uses the present

21、values of net cash inflows, figure 2D-19, page 406第20页/共46页第二十页，共47页。21第四节：投资项目(xingm)排序Topic 4: Ranking Investment Projects第21页/共46页第二十一页，共47页。22资本(zbn)项目排序 Capital Rationing n资本(zbn)分配合理化 企业的投资有某种约束，图表2D-20，410页n获利指数法n获利指数法 图表2D-21，918页nCapital Rationing some constraint on a firms investment progr

22、am, figure 2D-20, page 410nProfitability Index nProfitability Index page 411, figure 2D-21, page 411第22页/共46页第二十二页，共47页。23互斥项目(xingm) Mutually Exclusive Projectsn因为项目之间存在如下的差异，不同的分析方法产生(chnshng)相冲突的结果 现金流规模，净现金流模式，使用寿命n比较项目投资时所面临的问题 图表2D-22，919页nYield conflicting results because of project differenc

23、es size of the cash flow, pattern of the net cash flows, length of the useful lifenProblems in Comparing Project Investment figure 2D-22, page 412第23页/共46页第二十三页，共47页。24其他(qt)排序方法 Alternate Ranking Methods线性规划内部资本(zbn)市场Liner ProgrammingInternal Capital Markets第24页/共46页第二十四页，共47页。25第五节：资本(zbn)投资的风险分析

24、Topic 5: Risk Analysis in Capital Investment第25页/共46页第二十五页，共47页。26敏感性分析(fnx) Sensitivity Analysisn敏感性分析用于回答以下的问题 924页n折现率的变化(binhu) 图表2D-23，925页nSensitivity analysis used to answer questions such as page 418nChanges in Discount Rate figure 2D-23, page 419第26页/共46页第二十六页，共47页。27确定性等值 Certainty Equival

25、entsn确定性等值 预期(yq)现金流转换成实际上更可能实现的确定金额n采取以下的步骤 926页n案例 图表2D-24，927页nCertainty Equivalent used to convert a projected cash flow into a certain cash flownFollowing steps page 421nFor example figure 2D-24, page 421第27页/共46页第二十七页，共47页。28其他(qt)风险处理方法 Other Approach to Dealing with Risk资本资产(zchn)定价模型模拟Capit

26、al Asset Pricing ModelSimulations 第28页/共46页第二十八页，共47页。29使用专门调整(tiozhng)的利率 Use of Specifically Adjusted Ratesn使用公司资本成本进行折现的问题 好的低风险项目可能被拒绝，不好(b ho)的高风险项目可能被接受nThe problem of using firms cost of capital rate good low-risk projects may be rejected, poor high-risk projects may be accepted第29页/共46页第二十九页

27、，共47页。30资本投资的定性(dng xng)考虑事项 Qualitative Consideration in Capital Investmentn定性的重要(zhngyo)事项包括 929页nFollowing important qualitative factors page 424第30页/共46页第三十页，共47页。31第六节：估值Topic 6: Valuation第31页/共46页第三十一页，共47页。32价值(jizh)元素 Elements of Value商业价值 商业价值包括(boku) 持续经营价值，清算价值，每股清算价值，账面价值，每股账面价值，市场价值和内在价

28、值现金流的度量 933页Business of ValueBusiness value include - going-concern, liquidation value, liquidation value per share, book value, book value per share of common stock, market value, intrinsic value, Measure of cash flow page 428 第32页/共46页第三十二页，共47页。33规模，多样性和复杂性资产(zchn)，收益和增长Scale, Diversity, and Comp

29、lexityAssets, Earning, and Growth价值(jizh)元素 Elements of Value第33页/共46页第三十三页，共47页。34估价(gji)工具 Valuation ToolsBetaBeta 与整个市场在某一特定期间的变动相比，特定股票在同一(tngy)期间内价格变动情况,图表2D-25，934页BetaBeta movement of the price of a particular stock compared with the movement of the market as a whole, figure 2D-25, page 430 第

30、34页/共46页第三十四页，共47页。35估价(gji)工具 Valuation Tools规定回报率 规定回报率 投资人预期可以从风险类似的其他资本投资中获得(hud)的回报，最低回报率折现现金流DCF计算 - 935Required Rate of ReturnRequired rate of return investor could expect to receive elsewhere for a capital investment of comparable risk, minimum rate Discounted Cash FlowDCF calculated page 23

31、1第35页/共46页第三十五页，共47页。36资本资产定价(dng ji)模型资本资产定价(dng ji)模型 分析证券（尤其是普通股）风险和回报率之间的关系 风险溢价，Beta和SML 图表2D-26，936页Ke = Rf + B (Km Rf)，案例，936页Capital Asset Pricing ModelCapital asset pricing model analyzing the relationship between risks and rate of return on securities, especially common stock, Risk Premium

32、, Beta, and SML figure 2D-26, page 432Ke = Rf + B (Km Rf), for example, page 432估价(gji)工具 Valuation Tools第36页/共46页第三十六页，共47页。37现金流 Cash Flows现金流的重要性营运活动投资活动融资(rn z)活动附注Importance of Cash FlowOperation ActivitiesInvesting ActivitiesFinancing ActivitiesFootnotes第37页/共46页第三十七页，共47页。38现金流 Cash Flows未来收益

33、的数量(shling)、质量和变动性收益质量 收益质量的基本要素，938页收益持久性收益能力 两个考虑，939页现金流预测 间接法，939页Quantity, Quality, and Variability of Future EarningsEarning Quality basic factor of earning quality, page 434Earning Persistence Earning Power two consideration, page 435Forecasting Cash Flows indirect methods, page 436第38页/共46页第

34、三十八页，共47页。39现金流 Cash Flows折现率变化对现金流的影响使用资本(zbn)成本作为折现所有新投资的准绳，双重问题，940页敏感性分析所得税的影响所得税在决策过程中的影响Impact of Changing Discount RatesThe use of cost of capital as yardstick to discount cash flow on all new investment, two problems, page 436Sensitivity AnalysisImpact of Income TaxesImpact of Income Taxes i

35、n the Decision Process第39页/共46页第三十九页，共47页。40现金流 Cash Flows使用股利折现模型现金流的度量(dling)预期持有期间预计股利模式Use of the Dividend Discount ModelMeasure of cash flowExpected holding periodPattern of expected dividents第40页/共46页第四十页，共47页。41现金流 Cash Flowsn基本股利折现模型 942页 n固定股利增长率下的股利折现模型 942页n戈登模型的关键(gunjin)要点 图表2D-27，943页n

36、Basic Dividend discount Model page 439nThe Constant Growth Dividend Discount Model page 439nGordon Model Key Points figure 2D-27, page 440第41页/共46页第四十一页，共47页。42估值模型(mxng) Valuation Models市盈率在相对(xingdu)估值中一个分析师 944页市盈率 = 每股市价/EPSPricing Earning RatioIn relative valuation an analyst will page 441Price Earning Ratio = market price per share/EPS第42页/共46页第四十二页