解决问题的方法与假设咨询英文

1、Structured Problem Solving & Hypothesis GenerationConsulting Skills WorkshopGoals of this module Lay out a systematic approach to solving business problems “Structured Problem Solving ” Establish a common “modus operandus” for Consulting teams Practice the suggested process on a real-life exampl

2、e 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopStrategy is about thriving in a changing world“The pictures pretty bleak, gentlemen . . . The worlds climates are changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.” 2004 Capgemini - All rights re

3、servedConsulting Skills Workshop which is all about “decision making” “Strategy is about making decisions” The best strategy “makers” are able to blend analytic techniques with an understanding of the future uncertainties and simple good luck Based on often imperfect information they make decisions

4、and then drive implementation 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopThere are two basic approaches to problem solving; but both can workThe “theres a pony in here somewhere” approachThe structured analytic approachPotentialfor richpowerfulsolutionsScurry around analyzing tons

5、 of data to see if you can find something usefulGet the dataPotential forgood (and mixed) solutionsDefineproblemandhypotheses 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopDefining the issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendationsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recomme

6、ndations to ImplementFind InsightsAnalyse DataGather DataForm HypothesesSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howDefine the IssuesWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that prov

7、ide direction and structure for the analysis 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopHypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our clients problemForm HypothesesDefine the IssuesGather DataAnalyse DataFind InsightsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations

8、to ImplementSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysis 2004 Capgemini - All rights rese

9、rvedConsulting Skills WorkshopHypotheses are developed in three steps What are the real strategic issues? What is the impact on the organisation? What are the priorities? We think . . . It looks like . . . The right answer may be . . . The options could be . . . We believe this to be true . . . A se

10、ries of statements, not yet backed by data Based on initial data search or expert opinionsA number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.Is there a market for white label insurance products? Direct channels are growing Retailers have a strong channel and brand There are existing

11、 productsChubb Insurance can access new business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulting Is low cost of acquisition and profitable businessDefine the questionReview and Describe Multiple AssertionsForm the hypothesis123Consulting Skills WorkshopA hypothesis should identify not only the issue

12、but also the cause and the impactThink through these three stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it: What is the issue? What is the underlying opportunity? Where is the advantage? What do you think causes the issue? What are the key drivers of the process? What is

13、the impact of the issue? How can we tell there is an opportunity? Why do we care?“x is anopportunity.”“due to.”“resultingin.”Consulting Skills WorkshopThe Structured Problem Solving Process covers the life cycle of a consulting engagement Define the Problem Structure the Problem Develop a Hypothesis

14、 Execute the Analysis Develop a Recommendation Create the Communication Deliver Communication Follow Up with ClientCovered in current moduleCovered later in the week 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopThe Basics - Problem Solving Approach 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserv

15、edConsulting Skills WorkshopDEFINE THE PROBLEMSTRUCTURE THE ANALYSISFIND THE SOLUTIONOur problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of questions Is there a problem or opportunity? If so where does it lie? Why does it exist? What could we do about it? What should we d

16、o about it?Fine, but IWIK H2 do this. 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Always ask: “Are they Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive (MECE)?”Logical pyramids are basic tools for this approach, helping you to define

17、, structure and solve the clients problem 1.Ideas at any level in the pyramid must always be summaries of the ideas grouped below them2.Ideas in each grouping must always be the same kind of idea, and they must answer the same question implied by their summary3.Ideas in each grouping must always be

18、in a logical order:MainAssertionKey Line Deductively or inductively Trace course or time order Divide or structural order (e.g., Sales, Marketing, Manufacturing, etc.) Classify or degree order (e.g., most important, 2nd most important, etc.) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills Work

19、shopLogical pyramids increase the effectiveness of problem solving, results delivery and communication Vertical structure Horizontal structure Key line / narrativebut help ensure thoroughanalysiswhile decreasingcomplexityand increasing the powerof presentations Logical pyramids have simple rules The

20、 effectiveness of our work depends heavily on how compellingly we can argue that the solution we put forward serves the client best The reasoning we have to apply to come to our solution is complex and difficult to summarize for brief client interactions To build succinct and compelling presentation

21、s of our work, we use logical pyramids as the preferred communication style: Pyramids make information more memorable and meaningful They lead to a clearer definition of the problems we solve They structure our solutions to these problems and make them more compellingSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyra

22、mid Principle”.which will make your work/life much easier to handle 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopDefine and Structure the Problem 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills Workshop“If you dont know where you are going, any road will take you there.” -Anon

23、ymousWhy problem definition matters 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopIn structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitionsUS Car MarketLight TrucksPassenger CarsBig 3Mini VansSport UtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerB

24、ut be careful why does this not work? 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopMutually Exclusive and Comprehensively ExhaustiveThe most important rule for any structure you impose 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopDivideClarifyDiagnosticFrameworkCaus

25、e EffectFrameworkStructuralFrameworkProblem StructureTo help you solve a problem, your structure must:Disaggregate the problem into smaller and easier to solve componentsBe a “MECE” description of the problem and its possible solutionsTrace CauseThere are three ways to structure a business problemSo

26、urce: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”. 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopHeadHurtsPhysicalMentalExternalInternalStress, TensionHypochondriaBumped, Bruised HeadAllergiesBad Weather, Sinus Headache, Flu, ColdBrain TumorWater on the BrainExample 1 disaggregate the pro

27、blem into a diagnostic solution treeSCooPSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”. 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopStore is withinshopping radiusdo not know about the storeknow about the storenever visit the storeenter the storedo not buymake a purchasedo not come

28、 backmake repeat purchasesLocationAdvertisingSignage, CIConversionCustomer ValueRoot CauseExample 2 (trace cause) disaggregate the problem into a cause-effect framework How can TESCO improve its sales productivity (sales/sq.ft.)? 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopAccountt

29、ypePack sizeREPURCHASETarget market persuaded to repurchase?DISTRIBUTIONBrand madeavailable?TRIALTarget market induced to try?AWARENESSTarget marketaware?ProductrejectionPrice/valuerejectionFrequencyof useOccasionof useConsumerprofilePackDisplayPromotiontypePromotiontuningSell-ineffectivenessFeedbac

30、kIf all lines of inquiry fail to reveal a problem source, go back to consider whether target market and consumer benefit have been accurately defined.AttributeawarenessAdvertisingrecallAdvertisingspending rateMediamixRegional weightAdvertisingcommunicationTargetmarketConsumerbenefitRegionSales force

31、coverageSales forcedirectionTradetermsExample 3 disaggregate the problem into an intrinsic structure Why does Wimpys not show the anticipated financial performance?ChannelSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Productspec.SellingpriceBrandnamePackagingPOSITIONINGBrand properly positioned for

32、 themarket? 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopExercise 1 Kmart vs. Wal*Mart: define and structure Kmarts business problem SituationKmart and Wal*Mart operate similar chains of Full line Discount storesDifferent pricing strategies: Kmart follows a promotional pricing strat

33、egy of weekly sales, offering discounts on selected items, Wal*Mart follows an EDLP strategy (EDLP = Every Day Low Prices); Kmarts regular prices are higher than Wal*Marts, its sales prices are lowerWal*Mart has a better price perception than KmartKmart has a higher GM than Wal*Mart (23% vs. 21%)Kma

34、rt has significantly higher SG&A as percent of sales, which eliminate Kmarts Gross Margin advantage over Wal*MartWal*Marts scale advantage is not driven by the number of stores, but by its sales per store (better sales per square foot)Kmart has significantly lower sales per square foot sales tha

35、n Wal*Mart ($170 vs $250). With Wal*Marts sales productivity, Kmart would be about as profitable as Wal*Mart ComplicationKmart is operating at break-even, and Wal*Marts aggressive expansion puts more and more of Kmarts stores into direct competition with Wal*Mart, decreasing their store contribution

36、 and Kmarts overall profitability Question?Structure Kmarts problem to help its management devise a solution, including identifying the key question that our study must answer 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopExercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: first step is

37、to logically organize the factsCompanyCompetitorCustomerHigher GM than WalMart (+)Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-)Aging storesHi / Lo pricing strategyLower net income than WalMartEroding same-store sales vs. WalMartSales / sq. ft. higher than KmartAggressive expansion into Kmart territories

38、EDLP pricing strategyCustomers perceive WalMart prices better than Kmart 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopExercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: second step is to iterate to drive insight creationAlthough Kmarts Hi/Lo pricing strategy leads to high GM, high SG&a

39、mp;A has led to eroding sales productivityHigher GM than WalMart (+)Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-)Aging storesHi / Lo pricing strategyLower net income than WalMartEroding same-store sales vs. WalMartSales / sq. ft. higher than KmartAggressive expansion into Kmart territoriesEDLP pricing s

40、trategyCustomers perceive WalMart prices better than KmartWalMart is aggressively expanding, with highly productive stores and a different pricing strategy than KMartCustomers perceive WalMart delivers higher value in some areasHow can Kmart improve its sales productivity (sales / sq. ft.)? 2004 Cap

41、gemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopExercise 4 summary performance data for a credit card issuer whats the problem?Note: All figures in 1000s. Assume no priceinflation and that interest rates have remained constantThe 80/20 Rule 80% of the answer is in 20% of the dataOften we miss

42、the goldmine because we are busy trying to value the shack built on top of it This data, taken from a real client (but rebased,) tells the whole sorry story of their strategic problem in one picture Heading19981999 ChangeMarket PerformanceNo of Customers1,000 1,100 10%Number of Transactions50,000 52

43、,000 4%Value of Transactions1,000,000 1,050,000 5%New Customers Added100 200 100%IncomeInterest Payments100,000 90,000 -10%Subscription Fees50,000 75,000 50%Transaction Fees100,000 105,000 5%Total250,000 270,000 8%ExpenditureOperational Costs55,000 55,000 0%Marketing and Sales10,000 13,000 30%Overhe

44、ad25,000 25,000 0%Total90,000 93,000 3%Provision for Bad Debt10,000 20,000 100%Net Income150,000 157,000 5% 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopExercise 5 using a “quick and dirty” approach can produce surprisingly accurate results 30 million? 300 million? 3 billion? 30 bil

45、lion? 300 billion?How Many (Retail) Litres of Petrol Are Sold in France Per Year?Data: French Population 60 million. 1 Gallon = 3.8 Litres 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopDevelop a Hypothesis 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopExplicitly ties

46、your analysis to your problem definitionWhy hypotheses matterThey keep your effortHelps define the level of accuracy that mattersEnsures you analyze no more than is needed to disprove hypotheses within a reasonable doubtAllows quick check before massive data collection and crunching:“If we confirm o

47、ur belief in the hypothesis, will we be able to act on it?”Keeps you efficientOn targetAccurateMinimalActionableOn Time 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.1. Rule2. Case3. ResultRuleCaseResultIf we put the price too high, sale

48、s will go downWe have put prices too highTherefore, sales will go downCaseResultRuleWe have put prices upSales have gone downSales have gone down because the price is too highSales have gone downSales go down when prices are too highProbably we have put prices too highHypothesisResultRuleCaseAbducti

49、on is a variation on deductive and inductive reasoning and a powerful tool to develop hypothesesDeductionInductionAbduction1. Case2. Result3. Rule1. Result2. Rule3. Case 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedConsulting Skills WorkshopDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat differentiates a good hypothesis from a bad one? On target:Answers the core question on the clients mindAccurate:Embraces the enti