【双语阅读】调查：决策力并非与生俱来《金融时报》

1、调查：决策力并非与生俱来金融时报good management is about nothing if not good decision making unfortunately, decisiveness has been seen as a character trait like courage: there are those who can pull the trigger 一 the great executives 一 and those who canl - the armies of wafflers who are terrified of being forced to

2、 accept the consequences of their actions.有效管理的精髓全在于优秀的决策机制。但不幸的是，决第力被看做是一种类似 于勇气的性格特质。有些人就是能够果断扣动扳机例如出色的经理人；而另 一些人则做不到这一点这帮犹豫不决的家伙们对丁 被迫接受自己行为的后 果感到胆战心惊。a new wave of social scientists, however, is upending this view by digging into the psychological and social factors that influence our decisions.

3、 by developing better processes, they hope to make decision making less like voodoo and more like carpentry然而，一些社会学家通过深入研究影响人们决策的心理和社会因素，正在颠覆上 述看法。通过研究更好的决策机制，他们希望使决策不再像巫术那样神秘，而是 像木匠活那样可被学习掌握。chip heath, a professor at stanford business school, and his brother dan heath, a fellow at duke university&

4、#39;s center for the advancement of social entrepreneurship, have already written two excellent books of pop social science: made to stick and switch . their latest, decisions: how to make better choices in life and work digs into the latest findings on decision making.斯坦福人(stanford)商学院教授奇普希思(chip h

5、eath)和杜克人学(duke university)社会企业发展研究中心研究员丹希思(dan heath)俩兄弟合著了两 本出色的通俗社科书籍让创意更有粘性hmade to stick)以及瞬变(switch)。 他们的最新著作决策:如何在生活和匚作屮更好抉择(decisions: how to make better choices in life and work)深入探讨了决策领域的最新研究成果。"being decisive is itself a choice, they write. "decisiveness is a way of behaving, no

6、t an inherited trait. it allows us to make brave and confident choices, not because we know wetl be right but because its better to try and fail than to delay and regret.他们写道，“表现得坚决果断木身就是一种选择。决策力是一种行为方式，而不 是一种遗传特征。它使我们能够做出勇敢而自信的选择，这不是因为我们知道自 己一定止确，而是因为尝试并失败要好过拖延和后悔。”the heaths identify four villains

7、 that obstruct good decision making: narrow framing, limiting the options we consider; the confirmation bias, our tendency to look for evidence which supports what we already think; short-term emotion, which will fade over time; and overconfidence.希思兄弟指岀了阻碍有效决策的四大因索：第一点是视野狭隘(narrow framing),这限制了我们纳入

8、考虑的选择范围；第二点是证实倾|nj( confirmation bias),我们倾向于寻找能够支撑自己现有想法的证据；第三点是短期情绪 (short-term emotion),它将随着吋间逐渐消退；最后一点是过度自信 (overconfidence) othey lay out a four-step process called “wrap" that addresses each of the villains in turn. we must "widen our options” away from simple either/or decisions. we

9、should "reality test our assumptions, to ensure we are basing our decisions on fact rather than prejudice. we should "attain distance before deciding二 or sleep on big decisions rather than letting ourselves be carried away by the emotion of the moment. and we should "prepare to be wro

10、ng： because there is a good chance we will be.希思兄弟提出了名为“wrap"的四阶段流程，依次针对解决阻碍决策的四大障 碍。我们必须“拓宽自己的选择空间二避免非此即彼的简单决策。我们应当“把 自己的假想放到现实中检验=以确保我们的决策是建立在事实而非偏见的基础 上。我们述应“在决策之前减少情绪干扰二或者在而临重大决策时，要留出一段 时间来考虑，而不能让自己被当下的情绪所左右。最后我们必须做好“出错的准 备"，因为有很大可能我们确实会犯错。the heaths make a convincing case that bad dec

11、ision making is ubiquitous. take job interviews. rather than requiring candidates to perform the specific task for which we want to hire them, we sit them in a room and ask them questions about their ability to do the task. "imagine if the us olympic track coach used two tests in selecting the

12、men whod run on the 4x100 relay team. test 1: get the man on the track to see how fast he runs. and test 2: meet him in a conference room and see if he answers questions like a fast runner would；希思兄弟很有说服力地指出，糟糕的决策机制随处可见。以招聘面试为例。当前 的通行做法不是让候选人尝试执行招聘方希望他们入职后履行的具体任务，而是 让候选人坐在一间屋子里，通过提问来判断他们是否具备履行职责的能力。

13、书中 写道，“想彖一下，假如美国奥运会田径队的教练在筛选参加4x10()接力赛的队 员时使用了两种测试方法。其一是让运动员在跑道上比赛谁跑得更快。其二是在 一间会议室里面试运动员，以判断他冋答问题的方式是否像个飞毛腿we also often decide earlier than we need to, say the heaths. what we should do, instead, is conduct small experiments to test our ideas before going in all the way.希思兄弟表示，人们还经常过于仓促地做出决定。而我们真正

14、应当做的是，在做 出决策并贯彻执行之前进行一些小试验，以检验自c的想法是否正确。much of what the heaths write is echoed by francesca gino, a professor at harvard business school, in her much wonkier book, sidetracked: why our decisions get derailed, and how we can stick to the plan. she writes that if only we were more aware of the strang

15、e influences on our decisions, we could exercise more control over them.希思兄弟书中的许多观点，与哈佛商学院(harvard business school)教授弗朗西 斯卡吉诺(francesca gino)的观点相呼应。吉诺在偏离：决策为何脱轨，以及 如何贯彻既定方案(sidetracked: why our decisions get derailed, and how we can stick to the plan)书中写道，假如我们能够意识到口身决策所受到的 各种奇怪影响，我们就能更好地掌控它们。for exa

16、mple, most of us tend to exaggerate our perceptions of our own competence and capabilities. asked to rate our own qualities, ranging from decisiomaking abilities to physical attractiveness, most of us will rate ourselves well above average. we think we're better than we are. psychological biases

17、 such as these are the bane of good decision making.例如，绝大多数人倾向于高估自身的才干和能力。如果让我们给自己的素质打分， 包括决策能力以及外表吸引力等多个方面，绝大多数人会认为自身条件高于平均 水平。我们眼屮的自己好于我们的实际表现。诸如此类的心理倾向正是妨碍我们 做出止确决定的罪魁祸首。similarly, we tend to follow advice we pay for more than advice we receive for free, regardless of its quality there is somethi

18、ng about having paid for it that makes us credulous, a fact exploited by high-priced consultants.相对于免费得到的意见，我们更倾向于听从付费以后得到的建议，不论这些观点 木身的质量如何。为了获得建议而付费的行为使我们变得更加容易轻信，这一事 实被耍价高昂的咨询师们加以利用。but once you understand these tendencies in the human mind you can take advantage of them to persuade others. hotel

19、s have found that guests will reuse their towels at a much higher rate if you tell them that other guests reuse their towels than if you simply tell them that it，s the environmentally friendly thing to do.但是一旦你理解了人类心理的这些倾向，你就可以利用它们來说服别人。宾馆现 已发现，在告知宾客其他人也在重复使用毛山的情况下，毛山的使用率比仅仅提 示宾客重复使用毛|卩有利于保护环境时要高出不少

20、。we all tend to do more of what we think people like us to do, whether good or bad. in some instances, it makes perfect sense to follow the lead of others we trust and respect. but experiments have revealed the worrying truth that even the slightest perceived similarity, regardless of its relevance,

21、 can influence how we act. if we learn that someone shares our birth month or our name, we are more likely to follow their lead forging common ground, however shaky, is a trick every good salesman knows.对于我们认为其他人希與我们会做的事情，我们总是倾向于做得更多，不论是好 事述是坏事。在某些情况下，模仿我们所信任和尊敬的人完全合理。但实验所揭 示出的令人担忧的事实是，即使我们发现自己与他人之间

22、仅仅存在极小的相似 性，且不论与我们当前的决策是否相关，都会影响到我们的行为方式。如果我们 发现某人的出生月份或者名字与我们相同，我们模仿此人行为的概率都会上升。 挖掘共同点，不论多么牵强，是每个优秀推销员都知道的小技巧。prof ginos solution to not getting sidetracked is, like the heaths： to depersonalise and objectify decision making we need to keep our emotions in check and constantly adjust our perspectiv

23、e by taking advice, expanding our options and taking the other party's point of view. we need to question the sources of our information and psychological biases. and we must always ask if a decision can be reframed to achieve what we want.与希思兄弟类似，吉诺教授针对决策偏差捉岀的解决方案是淡化个人色彩， 使决策过程客观化。我们必须注意控制自己的情绪

24、，通过不断采纳他人建议来调 整我们看问题的视角，丰富我们的选择空间，并且从当事另一方的角度看问题。 我们需要探寻自己信息偏倚和心理偏见的根源。我们还必须不断思考一个决策是 否能被重构以实现我们的口标。she cites the example of theodore roosevelt's campaign manager in 1912. the campaign had just printed 3m brochures featuring a photograph of roosevelt for which it hadnt obtained permission. rathe

25、r than putting himself at the mercy of the photographer, the manager sent him a telegram saying: "we are planning to distribute millions of pamphlets with roosevelt picture on the cover it will be great publicity for the studio whose photograph we use. how much will you pay us to use yours? res

26、pond immediately.n the delighted photographer replied offering $250- problem reframed, happy outcome achieved.吉诺教授举了 1912年四奥多罗斯福(theodore roosevelt)竞选团队负责人的例 子。当时竞选团队印制了300万份附冇一张罗斯福照片的手册，但这张照片本身 却未获得摄影师授权。负责人没有把自己放在听凭摄影师摆布的地位，而是给对 方发去了一封电报，声称：“我们计划发放几百万份封面印有罗斯福照片的小册 子。对于入选图片的工作室而言，这将是一个提高知名度的大好机会。如果

27、我们 选择你所拍摄的照片，你愿意付给我们多少钱？请尽快冋复。兴高采烈的摄影 师回电表示愿意支付250美元。问题经过了重构，并得到了圆满的结果。dennis bakke, cofounder of imagine schools and former ceo of the power company aes, sees the devolution of decision making as a powerful managerial tool. all too often executives hog decision making because they feel it is what j

28、ustifies their status and salaries but in his new business novel the decision maker, he argues for letting more people up and down the company make decisions.丹尼斯巴基(dennis bakke)是imagine schools的联合创始人以及美国爱依斯 电力公司(aes)的前任首席执行官。巴基认为，决策权的下放是一种很有力的管 理方法。绝大多数时候管理层都把决策权牢牢攥在手屮，因为他们觉得这样才与 口己的地位和薪酬水平相符。但在他最新的

29、商业小说决策者(the decision maker)*p，他指出应让公司上下更多的人参与到决策过程屮来。the setting for his book is an old school manufacturing company. the business is staggering along, its workers joylessly going about their work. when the new managers install a pinball machine to boost morale, the employees snigger.巴基将小说的背景设在一家老式制

30、造企业。公司的经营状况仅够勉强维持，工人 们对自己的工作感到毫无乐趣。当新任管理层安装了一台弹珠游戏机以提升士气 时，雇员们纷纷暗屮偷笑。the managers then decide on a radical solution: to give up their decision making power and introduce what mr bakke calls the "decision maker process. first, the leader of an organisation must decide who is to make a decision.

31、the decision maker must be someone close to the issue and aware of the context. if it is to do with a manufacturing process, it should be someone who handles that process every day, not some lofty executive who never visits the factory floor新任管理层随后决定采取一项大胆举措：放弃自身的决策权，并引入被巴基称为 是“决策者流程叩勺机制。按照该流程，当一个问题岀现时，一家机构的领导人必 须首先决定将由谁来做出决策。所选的“决策者”必须是熟悉该问题并且了解其背 景的人。如果问题与某个制造环节冇关，那么决策者就应是每天与该环节打交道 的人，而非某位从不下到主产车间的高高在上的经理。the decis