GartnerTrendsInITandCommunicationsEBIG

1、notes accompany this presentation. please select notes page view. these materials can be reproduced only with written approval from gartner.such approvals must be requested via e-mail: .gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. trends in it & communicationskathie hack

2、lermvp enterprise network servicesmarch 10, 2008key issues1. what are the most critical trends and innovations overall?2. how has the communications market changed?3. what are the trends in each of the communications markets?4. where is the money being invested?5. how does the future look?seven key

3、overall trends affecting telecomservices in the cloud & web 2.0greening of businesseconomic uncertaintymassive video adoptionoblique carrier competitionmobile workforcerising power of consumers/prosumers “cloud computing” the next buzzwordweb 2.0 (or 3.0) is part of the “cloud”businesstechnology

4、communitylong-tail economicsarchitecture of participationcollective intelligencesocial softwarerich internet applicationsmashup syndicationcustomer/community participationweb platformsuser-created applicationsuser-created content and metadataunprecedented user freedomexplicit community ratingsweb-se

5、rvices-enabled business modelsmicropaymentsrevenue sharingwoarssmashupspox/httprestwikissocial publishingsocial networkingblogsajaxplug-inswidgets and gadgetstraditional vs. cloud computingbuy external servicedelivery modeltechnical modelbusiness modelinterface modeltraditional computingcloud comput

6、ingscalable, elastic, dynamic, multi-tenant pay directly based on usage or indirectly (e.g., subsidized by advertising)via the internet using standard internet ifaps (ip, html, http) buy assets and build delivery architecturesingle tenantpay for fixed assets and administrative overhead internal netw

7、ork or intranetcommunications: undergoing the biggest changes since the internet “went public” the old way scarce network capacity telco-defined services aligned competition hardware-centric location-bound capital and labor intensivethe new way commodity infrastructure user experience matters nonali

8、gned competition software- and web-centric open applications/services business-intelligence-drivenbroadband redefined & commoditized0 512 kbps 1 mbps5 mbps10 mbps100 mbpshong kongsouth koreasingaporetaiwanaustraliachinaindiagermanyu.k. france canadau.s.a.mass-market speedshighest speeds availabl

9、e2 mbps1 gbpsjapanmaximum download speedsconsumer choice, consumer control2. iptv subscription servicedistributewidescreenmobile1. over the topapple tv distributes tv over ip in the home.record and storeslingbox distributes a local tv devices content over the internet.computerwho wins?3%: iptv subsc

10、ribersthe rest: over the toppurchaseviewbroadbandvideo is exploding and its only just started the number of users of video sites nearly doubled from the end of 2006 to the end of 2007. (source: pew internet and american life project, 2008) strategic planning assumption: video usage for enterprise tr

11、aining and communication will reach an inflection point in 2009, with a 20%+ increase in the number of users. strategic planning assumption: video uptake will surge in targeted vertical applications (field force automation, law enforcement, surveillance and retail) during 2008 to 2010.photo courtesy

12、 of polycom standard videoconferencing is in stasis, but streaming, on-demand and hd is hot.flavors of enterprise videovideo streamingvideoconferencingwebcastingweb conferencinglive and on-demand streamingrich media deliveryused for events such as internal meetingsroom-based videoconferencingtelepre

13、sencemobile videoto reach a large audienceone-way communication in tv broadcast stylemarket penetration of 5%services used for collaboration typically a small-to-medium-sized groupusually real-time75% provided by service providers (hosted)blurring the lines between networks and software: unified com

14、munications & collaboration collaborationcommunicationsnetworkingvoicevoipblogssocial softwarewikistelephonywebaudio videoconferencingteam workspacescall centersfixed mobile convergenceinfrastructurepresencevoice maildirectorye-mailinstant messagingtrends: mobile devicesnew entrants at the ends

15、of the value chain, and consolidation in the middledevice vendors build out ecosystems removing complexity for the user. mobile devices as “lifestyle statements” field-refreshable platforms. trends: enterprise communications applications hybrid sourcing strategies combine carrier- and user-provided

16、models users get serious about unified communications software componentization will radically change the communications applications market companies adopting cornerstone vendors for contact centers trends: enterprise infrastructure& services networks get smarter top areas for investment will b

17、e mobility, unified communications, application fluency and security. video is resurrected and not necessarily controlled by cios cisco remains dominant collaboration software displaces hardware in importancetrends: consumer communications users redefine communications consumer and internet companie

18、s drive innovations video strategy top focus for carriers invisible mobilitytrends: carrier strategies oblique competition adoption of internet-like architectures internally context and content deep financial restructuring new business structurestrends: carrier infrastructure connectivity and servic

19、e separation speculative investment declines operational outsourcing reduction of suppliers softwarization and commoditizationventure investment trends 2007 nationwide, $29.4b into 3,813 deals four consecutive quarters exceeded $7b 1/3 in silicon valley and the broader bay area life sciences strong

20、software captured $5.3b in 905 deals telecom companies dropped semi-conductors, electronics and healthcare slippedsource: sj mercury news:http:/ gains in vc funding internet-specific companies ($4.6b/748) media and entertainment ($1.9b/340) recent announcements last week:at&t, william morris, ac

21、cel partners and venrock look for “new digital media” companies$100m iphone fund from kleiner perkins the carriers dilemma weak voice revenues massive operational costs decline in profitability limited consolidation benefits35%asia/japaneuropenorth america2004200640%margins convergingvoice shrinkingbusiness voice over broadbandconsumer pstnconsumer vobbusiness pstn2007 ($404b)2011 ($335b)business pstnconsumer pstn mobile is flattening difficulty monetizing new services control over devices and application