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1、Chapter 2A Changed Global RealityNotes to the TextvFinancial institution that seemed as solid as granite disappeared as if they were no more substantial than a bunch of flowers in the hands of an old style magician.v原来坚如磐石的金融机构消失了,似乎还不如老套的魔术师手中变出的花束看起来真实。Notes to the Textvthe stuff of history: histo
2、ricalvAnd it has been: an ellipsisvmake ones way to: 前往某处vcome to terms with something: 妥协 、接受Notes to the TextvWEF(World Economic Forum)vAn independent organization committed to improving the state of the world by bringing together business, political, academic and social leaders to shape global, r
3、egional and industry agendas.Question 1vWhat are the features of the two major economies that the world has seen for more than 200 years?One has dominated technological innovation and trade and amassed great wealth. The secondmuch of it politically under the thumb of the firsthas remained poor and t
4、echnologically dependent.Notes to the TextvFour Asian DragonsvHong Kong SAR, Singapore, Republic of Korea and Taiwan AreaNotes to the TextvThe developed world of the haves is struggling to restart growth and preserve welfare states, while the world of the once have-nots has surged out of the downtur
5、n.v生活富有的发达国家正在努力重新刺激经济增长并维持社会福利,而那些曾经贫困的发展中国家却已经摆脱了经济困境。Question 2vHow much did low-and-middle-income countries contribute to world growth in 2010?Almost half (46%)Question 3vTaking a long term view, why is it good news that developing countries are growing fast?vAs billions of poor people become mo
6、re prosperous, they will be able to afford the comforts their counterparts in the rich world have long considered the normal appurtenances of life.v由于数以亿计的穷人变得更加富有,这些人将能够支付得起富裕国家的人们长期视为正常生活一部分的舒适的物质条件。Notes to the TextvOtherwise, the world could yet tip back into beggar-thy-neighbor populism that wi
7、ll end up beggaring everyone. We are not out of the woods yet.beggar-thy-neighbor populism 以邻为壑的民粹主义out of the woods 摆脱困境v否则,这个世界可能退回到以邻为壑的民粹主义中去,而其结果将会使各国经济更加糟糕(沦为乞丐)。我们仍未脱离困境。Question 4vWhat are the worst-case scenarios that Europe has so far avoided?A collapse of the euro, a debt crisis that spil
8、ls from small economies such as Greece and Ireland to much bigger ones like Italy and Spain, and bitter social unrest in those nations that are having to massage wages down while cutting public budgets.Notes to the Textvdouble-dip recession 双底衰退It describes a situation in which the economy growth sl
9、ides back to negative after a short-lived growth and the economy may move into a deeper and longer downturn.v索罗斯是在匈牙利首都布达佩斯发表演讲时做上述表态的。他表示,还不能确定全球经济的下一次走低是否会在2010年或2011年发生。v“双底型衰退”(double dip recession)又称“W型衰退指在全球经济已经触底逐渐回升时,经济复苏可能失去动能,在不久的将来会再一次触底。2009年下半年,全球经济开始从金融危机中触底反弹,但是,不少媒体和经济学界的人士包括索罗斯认为,全球
10、经济复苏可能失去动能,“双底”衰退具有实质性威胁。Notes to the TextvThough Europe is wheezing under cascading sovereign-debt crises, it has so far avoided the worst-case scenarios-a collapse of the eurov尽管欧洲在汹涌而至的主权债务危机下苟延残喘,但到目前为止,它已避免了最糟糕的状况-欧元的崩溃。Notes to the Textvtidings n. (古)消息 vCassandra n.卡珊德拉In Greek mythology, Cas
11、sandra, also known as Alexandra, was a goddess with the gift of prophecy.vflatten out: stop growing/going up e.g. Gold price on the London market are expected to flatten out after a period of fluctuation.Question 5 vWhy does Jim Walker think that 2011 will be a “year of reckoning”?Because Jim Walker
12、 thinks that the rebound in the US is a mirage created by excessive stimulus. He expects the US to slip into the double dip it dodged in 2010.Question 6vWhy has the private-sector debt crisis of 2008-2009 morphed into a public-sector debt crisis in 2010-11?It has been the result of the debt and defi
13、cits amassed in the process of stimulating economies and bailing out banks during the downturn. bail out: to help someone out of difficult situation, often by giving them money.Notes to the Textvscale back sth/scale sth back 相应缩减,按比例 减少ve.g. vRegulators are clamping down on these institutions, forci
14、ng them to raise capital and scale back lending.v监管部门也在向这些机构施压,要求它们筹资并缩减贷款。Notes to the TextvBallooning debts and feeble growth prospects for the advanced economies are reordering the investors perception of risk.vballoon vi. When something balloons, it increases rapidly in amount. 激增;猛涨v发达国家债务激增,经济
15、发展疲软,这种现象正在改变投资者对风险的判断。Notes to the TextvNoting that the U.S. “has no plan in place to stabilize and ultimately reverse the upward debt trajectory,” Moodys in mid-January warned that the countrys AAA credit rating could come under pressure if debt continues to mount; a few days later, Moodys upgrade
16、d Indonesias rating.v注意到美国“没有合适的计划来稳定并最终逆转上扬的债务曲线,”穆迪公司在一月中旬警告说如果美国的债务继续增加,这个国家的3A信用等级可能面临压力;几天之后,穆迪公司提升了印尼的信用等级。Notes to the Textv快速增长的通货膨胀v强劲的国内需求增长v刺激性政策v商品价格v(市场)需求回归v供应限制因素v宽松的货币政策v食品价格指数v达到历史新高v飞涨的价格va sharp rise in inflationvstrong domestic growthvstimulus policiesvcommodity pricesvreturning
17、demandvsupply constraintsvloose-money policiesvfood price indexvreach an all-time highvspiking pricesQuestion 7vWhat are the risks that emerging economies face? a. sharp rise in inflation b. rising oil prices c. soaring food priceNotes to the TextvIn mid-January, China raised the reserve-requirement
18、 ratio-which forces banks to park more money at home for every loan they make-to a record high in an attempt to curtail credit and quell inflation, which rose at the fastest pace in two years in November.v一月中旬,中国提高银行准备金率至历史新高,强制银行每发放一笔贷款就必须在央行存入更多的储备金。中国试图以此减少信贷并且抑制通过膨胀。今年十一月,中国的通货膨胀达到两年来的最快增速。Quest
19、ion 8vWhat did China and India do to cope with inflation and rising food prices?China raised the reserve-requirement ratio; India resorted to diplomatic means when Pakistan temporarily cut off some exports of onions to the country.Notes to the Textvraging food prices飙升的食品价格vcut off exports削减出口vbust
20、inflation消除通货膨胀vdampen growth抑制增长Question 9vHow to understand populist resentment in this paragraph?vSince common people in developed countries were still suffering from unemployment during the recovery, therefore, they may transfer dissatisfaction with domestic economy to people living in emerging
21、economies like China, India and parts of Africa, thus breeding a feeling of populist resentment.Notes to the Textvtook place in a highly charged atmosphere.vIf a situation is charged, it is filled with emotion and therefore very tense or exciting.vChina is tired of being lectured to by those who see
22、m unable to manage their own economies particularly well.v中国厌倦了被那些连自己的经济都管理不好的国家教训。Notes to the TextvU.S businesses, which have in the past be supportive of free trade and engagement with China, are beginning to sing with different voices.vComment:vThe U.S government is now trying to exert influence
23、 upon international trade and turned against China time and again.Notes to the TextvIn the U.S. and Europe, a certain helplessness in the face of huge economic forces is fueling a disaffection-which makes itself felt in different ways in different societies-with the global financial elites and the p
24、olicymakers who are thought to have connived with them.v在美国和欧洲,面对巨大经济压力却无能力的现象正激起人们对全球的金融精英和和决策者的不满,认为他们串通一气,这种不满在不同的社会表现形式不同。Notes to the TextvThere was a particularly poignant moment when Ireland, which cherishes its independence like a precious jewel, was forced to go cap in hand to the EU for a
25、bailout in November.v视独立如珍宝的爱尔兰,11月为了得到紧急财政援助,不得不向欧盟求助,这令人感到非常心酸。Notes to the Textvwhich excoriated a bourgeois capitalism whose “fumble in a greasy till/And add the halfpence to the pence/And prayer to shivering prayer, until/You have dried the marrow from the bone.”v这行诗痛斥了资本主义商人“在满是油污的钱柜里摸索,一点一点积攒
26、,不停地祷告,直到榨干工人的骨髓(最后一滴血)。Question 10vHow can a disaffection with global capitalism in the developed world be prevented from turning into a backlash against it?v如何阻止人们对发达国家所倡导的全球资本主义的不满演变为强烈抵制?vIt would help if there were mechanisms in place to manage the stresses in the international economy.Notes to
27、 the TextvThe Doha round of trade talks, .everyone knows there is nothing there, but nobody will say so.vComment:vNo practical achievement had been reached during the talks since the attending countries considered too much about their own interests.Notes to the TextvYet the unmediated rift between countries(2), each desperate to preserve its edge in the global economic game(1), is not even the most serious division that policymakers have to contend with(3).v在全球经济博弈中,各国都竭尽全力
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