建材行业1月跟踪报告：“红二月”值得期待0128

1、1.2013120131281160-70%021-s1010511020001021-2013low-egdpfai021-201328%22%low-elow-ea12013pccp2013. 2012-12-1220132201283.2012-8-282012 71112eeps13e14e1112epe13e14epbroe.2012-7-3119.2111.0516.0711.5910.3015.839.052.190.541.150.360.360.870.501.170.300.580.220.280.980.301.750.700.950.650.541.200.601.88

2、0.851.200.900.751.480.8092114322918181637285336163011161718191315101313131411112.241.872.053.682.172.342.0529.0312.2716.8214.478.0813.3313.62wind2013-1-25roe11pb,1234568101112 9131420131. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 10.10.12.16. 17.17.17.18.18. 19. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 37 2012911bj. 4. 4. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 1115

3、1617181920212223262728303233234/791011121314151720131. 11. 11.12.12.13.13.13.13. 1424 2010-2012e25 20111 1120125 20126 20138 2003-201216.15.15.17.17.18.18.19. 19. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9.14.15.16.16.16.19.19201312013gdpfailow-eapccp2013201320127.40%201221.87.4%121.825.4%12-9.6%1120129-111112120

4、/207020/407020/607020/807020/007120/207120/308020/508020/708020/908020/108120/209020/409020/609020/809020/009120/209121/300021/500021/700021/900021/100121/201021/401021/601021/801021/001121/201121/302021/502021/702021/902021/102120-007920-107120-007120-007320-007520-007720-008120-008320-008520-00872

5、0-008920-108120-009120-009320-009520-009720-009920-109121-000121-000321-000521-000721-000921-100121-001121-001321-001521-001721-001921-101121-002121-002321-002521-002721-002921-102120/007220/007420/007620/007820/107020/107220/008320/008520/008720/008920/108120/009220/009420/009620/009820/109020/1092

6、21/000321/000521/000721/000921/100121/001221/001421/001621/001821/101021/101221/002321/002521/002721/002921/10212013112250020000175001500012500100007500500025000260%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%90008000700060005000400030002000100002012(16% 2013)201280%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%117.1812.4%1116.2%122009-20111212

7、7031.61.491.4%3.7%20133.17201219%6.0%20121.96324000210001800015000120009000600030000120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%220/108020/008120/008320/008520/008720/008920/108120/009120/009320/009520/009720/009920/109121/000121/000321/000521/000721/000921/100121/001121/001321/001521/001721/001921/101121/002

8、121/002321/002521/002721/002921/102120/308020/508020/708020/908020/108120/109020/309020/509020/709020/909020/109121/200021/400021/600021/800021/000121/101021/301021/501021/701021/901021/101121/202021/402021/602021/802021/002120-007220-007420-007620-007820-107020-107220-008320-008520-008720-008920-10

9、8120/009220/009420/009620/009820/109020/109221/000321/000521/000721/000921/100121/001221/001421/001621/001821/101021/101221/002321/002521/002721/002921/1021()20131424000210001800015000120009000600030000250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%2012201212.5%20131-1151855160520012.5% 20122012130515185.060.83%201351600

10、1400120010008006004002000618001600140012001000800600400200011114728%0.55%11300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%932006/012006/032006/052006/072006/092006/112007/012007/032007/052007/072007/092007/112008/012008/032008/052008/072008/092008/112009/012009/032009/052009

11、/072009/092009/112010/012010/032010/052010/072010/092010/112011/012011/032011/052011/072011/092011/112012/012012/032012/052012/072012/092012/112006/012006/032006/052006/092006/072006/112007/012007/032007/052007/072007/092007/112008/012008/032008/052008/072008/092008/112009/012009/032009/052009/07200

12、9/092009/112010/012010/032010/052010/072010/092010/112011/012011/032011/052011/072011/092011/112012/012012/032012/052012/072012/09/201317201211/806040200-20-40-60-8020122011812001000800600400200/9250200150100500bjbj/wind201211255/280/280111280/305/300190-20020122022150-6050-6020280255300280432013120

13、12340-55142312112111110-2050-6545-654055-605050-6030-6020-40401020-253515-251250190-200280270320310280190-2003053403703201060%221228281111222230-4030-4030-4015-20283550-6035-4015112112360120330%-40%50%2012.11.022012.11.092012.11.162012.11.232012.11.302012.12.072012.12.142012.12.212012.12.282013.01.0

14、42013.01.112013.01.1870.870.071.271.571.571.972.772.776.976.972.772.376.976.977.580.680.680.680.680.680.680.680.680.658.359.059.863.164.465.266.966.969.069.070.067.765.064.564.564.565.065.065.965.967.367.369.169.155.058.959.463.364.465.667.267.269.469.470.672.275.675.674.470.066.965.065.665.666.366.

15、366.968.171.171.772.473.975.676.176.776.776.776.776.777.865.766.266.768.268.769.070.070.071.871.871.871.55201312013.01.2573.580.663.969.161.170.078.969.71201220123141.120122011154.5% 201220122012201266663763012012201220122012201220122012201220122012666667778810723429998745634741001512285201852012112

16、01220121211.931.578.2173.933*20122012338.033.540.0194.43232012 20202011 20182011 20202012 20182008 20182012 20182010 20152011 20202012 2018*201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122012444555666666161.020.020.553.975.338.4118.089.6228.9250.636.049.2805.0114.8128.3336.5503.7180.3610.4562.21241.015

17、86.9229.2309.35 662012689.7656.41721172012 20202012201220122012201220122012777788859.623.518.615.651.730.3421.970.294.782.999.1333.2254.9609/01 09/03 09/05 09/07 09/09 09/11 10/01 10/03 10/05 10/07 10/09 10/11 11/01 11/03 11/05 11/07 11/09 11/11 12/01 12/03 12/05 12/07 12/09 12/1120131124222012 2019

18、2007 201620122012201220122012201220128881111111129.75.411.126.347.923.289175.540.1357.5182.27312.4145.237071747.711027.410*5/460440420400380360340320300p.c32.5p.o42.520138.9%2012201320131.21.3220131.962013/13020.335.8%14568.336.5%16116.337.2%14568.336.5%16116.337.2%17664.337.9%15922.837.2%17470.837.

19、8%19018.838.5%16754.147.5%18302.148.2%19850.148.9%18302.148.2%19850.148.9%21398.149.6%19656.648.8%21204.649.5%22752.6410.2%20487.949.2%22035.949.9%23583.9410.6%22035.949.9%23583.9410.6%25131.9411.3%23390.4410.5%24938.4411.2%26486.4411.9%20-30/7-)201311120122013q120122012q42013q12013q17eps2012eeps201

20、3q1e1.170.160.580.440.300.590.23-47%-86%-50%-66%-45%-27%-66%0.16-0.230.070.13-0.08-0.04-33%1318%-2.48%-40%2003-2012103001023282003-20122003-20122003-20122003-201212345678910111251043633644655067477466459.50%48.70%-8.60%-1.90%20.70%-21.20%-17.80%17.80%-11.50%-14.00%55.60%7.80%0.95%4.87%-0.86%-0.19%2.

21、07%-2.12%-1.78%1.78%-1.15%-1.40%5.56%0.78%wind82100029321010290210102972102029421100201211002082111020521120202211202092110021521110212211102192112021621100223211102202111022721120224211302212100031721010314201311299 32013gdpfai25%10 2211 14100%20%15%10%5%0%-5%911 28wind“”1112eeps13e14e1112epe13e14e

22、pbroe19.2111.0516.077.4511.2711.589.1114.6810.294.988.208.502.190.541.150.801.201.281.281.130.670.400.680.741.170.300.580.600.240.440.560.160.200.250.230.071.750.700.950.680.570.880.500.220.250.300.290.181.880.851.200.770.751.150.680.350.530.330.370.28921149997131513121216372812472616925320361211116

23、171120131868411728481013131015101342191522302.241.872.051.503.293.101.281.711.271.162.201.1129.0312.2716.8218.7443.0136.8427.7715.6118.29.9121.2211.07wind20131251012341213pe80%2013129210001210003210005210007210009211001210011210015210013210017200099200097210025200095200093200091211011210021210023210

24、02721002921102120109121001920131123121212121212201220122012201212559828140.90%102.44%36.14%201212191.705.30% 20122063.717.54%1380007000600050004000300020001000025%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%102010/012010/032010/052010/072010/092010/112011/012011/032011/052011/072011/092011/112012/012012/032012/0520

25、12/072012/092000722000742000762000782010702010722000822000842000862000882010802010822000922000942000962000982010902010922100022100042100062100082110002110022100122100142100162100182110102110122100222100242100262100282110202110222012/112013/012009021020090320200904302009061020090720200908302009101020

26、09112020091230201002102010032020100430201006102010072020100830201010102010112020101230201102102011032020110430201106102011072020110830201110102011112020111230201202102012032020120430201206102012072020120830201210102012112020121230201311432502950265023502050175014501150152502001501005002010160%140%12

27、0%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%100/2012465/20121270.1916150130110907050/3.8/2.3/112002-22002-82003-22003-82004-22004-82005-22005-82006-22006-82007-22007-82008-22008-82009-22009-82010-22010-82011-22011-82012-22012-82007-022007-042007-062007-082007-102007-122008-032008-052008-072008-092008-112009/022009/

28、042009/062009/082009/102009/122010/032010/052010/072010/092010/112011/022011/042011/062011/082011/102011/122012/032012/052012/072012/092012/11020131201171450/2-65100/201210%20132013201220137%1.8%2012122013180.996-8%7.12%20132011520121214185.84%201317183500030000250002000015000100005000()60%50%40%30%

29、20%10%0%-10%-20%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%201320132852.459.29226475788420121/3)121393651.19122000712000732000752000772000792010712000812000832000852000872000892010812000912000932000952000972000992010912100012100032100052100072100092110012100112100132100152100172100192110112100212100232100252100272

30、100292110212000712000732000752000772000792010712000812000832000852000872000892010812000912000932000952000972000992010912100012100032100052100072100092110012100112100132100152100172100192110112100212100232100252100272100292110212009113020100220201004302010063020100830201010302010123020110228201104302

31、01106302011083020111030201112302012022920120430201206302012083020121030201212302013119201300001200001100001000009000080000/20121-11447817.22%1-112.678.88% 1-1155402.18%217006005004003002001000223500300025002000150010005000windwind100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-

32、40%tn/stnlcdtft-lcdtplcddisplaysearchtn-stntft-lcd132013120122014143325/160850/178630lcd31530/36700/4465720%25%22%201220142350000450004000035000300002500020000150001000050000cagr=22%20112012e2013e2014edisplaysearch11201124002012e35702013e53102014e7900tn-stntft-lcdtft-lcdlcd1650683511184012272520%245

33、451650898512912014332522%31531.528.46%16501068014321016085023%36995.517.33%16501208015700017863025%44657.520.71%displaysearch2012 110.943.261.6220132012 1114400/20133200/1.7aa/+201114/20131a201035%201142%29%27%201230.4%3.4%-67.1%2.35242010-2012e252011300,00040%250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000-50,

34、000201020112012etco35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%/27.4%(41.8%)2500t/d1650t/d650t/d2012tco180232012/cdi2800201327-2812300mw350/mw 20122010712698801768800408965281057792267001960058002011718001140008220047892752405425214800366002002012e10480344800875001010524323284875(10176)(4379)(8911)1520131low-elow-e201220

35、1550%low-e10%70%low-e20%34.8%30%2012low-e20102011201221.2%1391%low-e2010226,299158,30267,99730.0%30,80021.2%2011247,689162,70884,98134.3%41,00034.8%2012e26600018620079,80030.0%31,80290.9%20132013low-ea1411eps12e13e14e11pe12e13e14epbroea8.236.380.570.300.170.180.320.210.420.3314214935263120192.461.66

36、25.012.21512013125a2tco2011tcotcotco31162014e1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011/201312013212-20112201220147262012/2013/2014eps270.22/0.65/0.90100,000kwkw120%60050040030020010002832012e2642013e4262014e4982015e90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-100%80%

37、60%40%20%0%,201320111201120201042012pccp2013172000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112012e2013e2014e2015e2010/022010/042010/062010/082010/102010/122011/032011/052011/072011/092011/112012/022012/042012/062012/082007/022007/042007/062007/082007/102007/122008/032008/052008/072008/09

38、2008/112009/022009/042009/062009/082009/102009/122010/032010/052010/072010/092010/112011/022011/042011/062011/082011/102011/122012/032012/052012/072012/0920131eps9.520121.6q1-q2375%2012-2013epsq10.28/0.54)282940003500300025002000150010005000%pvc pe ppr35302520151050302012/2013/20142eps310.98/1.20/1.

39、48140012001000800600400200060%50%40%30%20%10%0%24000180001200060000120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%wind2011qe318200801200804200807200810200901200904200907200910201001201004201007201010201101201104201107201110201201201204201207201210201312013201332720133345403530252015105070%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%300250200150100500270202012201320132013161112eeps13e14e1112epe13e14epbroe11.5910.3015.839.0519.2933.8917.3417.910.360.360.870.500.490.770.910.600.220.280.980.300.721.001.200.650.650.541.200.601.051.501.501.040.900.751.480.801.401.721.801.363