长海股份(300196)年报点评：创新产品迭出助推业绩持续增长130228

1、12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-13- () / / / ) 3001962012 2013228 20.02 25.00 2012eps0.74 2012 6.02 52.3% 35.7% 0.74 0.89 201228.68% 0.71 0.99 2.53 2012s1010511020001 0.37 11.2% 5.7% 49.5% 2174.7%300 2013 +5% 201360.00% 6073 10.00% -40.00% 2013 2012 wind 33 3002595 120/1

2、20 1222.98/12.6 1 6 -0.39% 33.05% 1210.58 12.22% 201325pe 2013/2014/2015 25 eps1.02/1.40/1.73 2011 444 2012 602 2013e 1046 2014e 1269 2015e 1443 yoy% yoy% eps % roe% 3.2 58 35.9 0.49 29.7 7.2 6.71 35.7 89 52.3 0.74 28.7 10.2 7.25 73.7 122 37.7 1.02 26.4 12.3 8.27 21.4 169 37.8 1.40 27.8 14.5 9.68 13

3、.7 208 23.5 1.73 28.8 15.2 11.41 2013227 - ( / / / 3001962012 2012 0.8952.3% 6.0235.7% 0.74 2012 0.752012 0.71 28.68% 2.53 0.99 0.37 12012 20122011 601.99 429.33 28.68% 31.47 5.22% 42.72 7.1% 0.12 0.02% 1.50 5.45 104.23 12.52 12.01% 88.84 443.59 311.98 29.67% 20.05 4.52% 42.71 9.6% -1.57 -0.35% 1.52

4、 3.5 70.08 7.83 11.17% 58.33 35.71% 37.61% -0.99% 56.96% 0.71% 0.02% -2.53% 0.37% -1.32% 55.71% 48.73% 59.90% 0.84% 52.31% 11.2% 5.7% 49.5% 2174.7% 22012 20112012 32012 2258 21400 15363 693 93 2011 14880 10075 8952 2867 25018 16396 1056 2499 2012 8612 9586 8872 26.97% 16.91% 6.72% 52.38% 2587.10% -6

5、269 -489 -80 4 / / 2012 6.1 3.2 2011 23.79% 22.19% 6.0 2.7 2012 17.61% 24.51% -0.12 -0.49 -6.18 2.32 1 0 3001962012 20112012 2013 44.88% 26.59% 57.74% 35.77% 41.70% 41.07% -9.11 15.11 -16.67 - 7 5%525 2013 7 2013 2012 201360 20133201352 72013 /2 5600/2013 1.2 400/ 2012 6000 20% 1 12 2 10 8 6 4 2 3 1

6、0 300 250 200 150 100 50 270 20 20122013 0 2012201320132013 201232.9 201323.5 1000201311500 2013 2011 6000 1 2499 140% 2 / 3001962012 20102011 20112012 4000 20131500 2012 2013 3 6 30.75% 4 3 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 200820092010q1- q3 20112012q1- q3 5000 0 -5000 -10000

7、-15000 -20000 200820092010q1- q3 20112012q1- q3 5 2012 3 9 2012 30000 2867 8611.79 17.61% 35000 25018 2013e 100000 23000 6000.00 20.00% 35000 27500 2014e 100000 29000 6800.00 23.00% 35000 30000 2015e 100000 32000 7000.00 24.00% 35000 32000 3 / / / 3001962012 2012 9586.30 24.51% 29000 16396 8871.68 3

8、5.77% 1000 1056 2013e 9600 24.50% 35000 21500 8850 36.00% 1500 1200 2014e 9600 24.50% 50000 26000 8890 36.00% 1500 1400 2015e 9800 24.50% 50000 33000 8900 36.00% 1500 1450 201325pe / / 25 5.99 41.70% 6120 2499 2.70 41.07% 6% 6043 5693 2013-2015 eps 5.8 40.00% 7000 3100 2.6 39.00% 1500 28000 40% 15%

9、26000 22100 5.9 40.00% 7000 3800 2.6 39.00% 2500 28000 40% 18% 30000 24600 1.02/1.40/1.73 6 40.00% 7000 4400 2.7 39.00% 3000 28000 40% 20% 32000 25600 4 3001962012 2011 444 312 29.67% 2 20 4.52% 43 9.63% -2 -0.35% 0 67 15.01% 4 1 70 8 11.17% 4 58 13.15% 2012 602 429 28.68% 1 31 5.23% 43 7.10% 0 0.02

10、% 3 99 16.41% 6 1 104 13 12.01% 3 89 14.76% 2013e 1,046 770 26.41% 2 54 5.20% 74 7.10% 7 0.69% 13 138 13.17% 7 1 143 17 12.00% 4 122 11.70% 2014e 1,269 916 27.82% 3 66 5.20% 90 7.10% 9 0.69% 13 192 15.12% 7 1 198 24 12.00% 5 169 13.28% 2015e 1,443 1,027 28.80% 3 75 5.20% 102 7.10% 5 0.32% 13 238 16.

11、52% 7 1 244 29 12.00% 7 208 14.42% 2011 443 38 60 42 582 259 0 20 96 375 957 1 64 53 118 0 1 1 119 120 529 2012 121 44 90 98 353 287 91 28 424 830 1,183 95 88 85 267 12 4 16 283 120 529 2013e 157 77 157 174 565 456 91 28 424 999 1,564 226 158 138 522 12 4 16 538 120 529 2014e 190 92 191 208 681 592

12、91 28 344 1,055 1,736 169 188 163 520 12 4 16 536 120 529 2015e 216 103 217 234 770 620 91 28 364 1,103 1,873 50 211 182 442 12 4 16 458 120 529 806 32 957 870 35 1,189 993 39 1,570 1,161 45 1,742 1,369 51 1,879 201120122013e2014e2015e 5889122169208 201120122013e2014e2015e 43457% 22 8 12 29 -39 91 5

13、9 -67 8 71 -34 3 79 -27 -3 17.8 18.8 17.7 35.7 48.4 52.3 73.7 39.4 37.7 21.4 39.4 37.8 13.7 24.2 23.5 104173126214264% -160-441-227-127-12729.728.726.427.828.8 0 0 0 0 0 -90 13 0 0 13 0 0 13 0 0 ebit margin ebitda margin 15.0 20.1 13.2 16.1 20.9 14.8 13.9 19.5 11.7 15.3 20.9 13.3 16.3 21.8 14.4 -160

14、-532-214-114-114% 523 -50 0 67 0 132 0 -57 0 -119 7.2 6.3 10.6 8.5 13.1 9.1 15.6 10.4 16.4 11.8 -8-28000% 0 465 409 0 39 -320 -7 125 36 -9 -66 34 -5 -124 26 12.4 11.2 0.0 23.8 12.0 0.0 34.3 12.0 0.0 30.8 12.0 0.0 24.4 12.0 0.0 5 - “” analyst certification i ii the analysts primarily responsible for

15、the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or w

16、ill be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. “ ” /()(1) (2) / / 2013 1 30020% 6 3005%20% 2 6 300 6 300 300 300 300 300 300 -10% 5% 10% 10% -10% 10% 10% 48156881 1001252220012251804826 foreign broker-dealer disclosures for distributing to the u.s. this report has been produced in its entirety by citic securities limited company (“citic securities”, regulated by the china securities regulatory commission. securities business license number: z20374000). this report is being distributed in th