亚太金属及矿产研究报告

1、1.80-22% october 22, 2010 asean: metals sell ptba, adaro to neutral coal price may rise in short-term on weather/seasonality recent weather-related disruptions to supply out of australia and indonesia coal and oil (wti) price assumptions (due to heavy rainfall) may possibly tighten the market during

2、 winter. also, the world meteorological organization (wmo) under the united nations expects coal price (newc, cy) us$/t yoy growth % % 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 73 95 100 100 -43% 30% 5% 0% that la nia conditions may further strengthen during the next 4-6 months, characterized by unusually cool ocean t

3、emperatures. our analysis also wti oil price yoy growth % coal as % of oil equiv us$/bbl % % 62 -38% 25%* 82 32% 24% 100 22% 21% 110 10% 19% indicates that coal prices rise seasonally during winter on strong coal demand. rally may be short-lived; rising supply ahead * 19% based on 5 year long dated

4、oil (cl 60) asean coal sector: valuation table thermal coal supply continues to improve structurally (in line with our market liquidityev/ebitda expectations), but we think it may further ease on various supply-side improvements which are in progress (mainly indonesia, australia and south africa). m

5、oreover chinas thermal coal imports may be flat to lower ticker adro.jk bumi.jk itmg.jk curr idr idr idr price 19-oct 2,175 2,350 45,100 cap us$ m 7,724 5,028 5,657 6-mos us$ m 15.6 23.6 5.3 p/e (x) 10e 11e 20.8 12.1 15.5 11.1 17.2 11.9 (x) 10e 11e 7.7 5.1 7.2 5.7 10.5 7.3 in 2011e due to rising sha

6、nxi production, weaker growth of coal fired power plants and easing railway bottleneck. banp.bk ptba.jk strl.si thb idr s$ 744 20,200 2.31 6,256 5,169 1,836 36.4 6.3 7.4 16.0 20.2 22.5 11.6 13.2 14.9 12.1 13.8 10.7 7.1 8.9 7.5 valuations near or above mid-cycle; remain stock-selective asean coal sto

7、cks have rallied up by 16% over last month, we think due to target prices and ratings rising oil prices, us$ weakness and anticipation of tighter market duringgs ratingcurrprice12-mo tppotential winter. stocks are generally trading at or above mid-cycle on 2011e ticker adro.jk old buy new neutralidr

8、 19-oct 2,175 old 2,500 new ups/dwn 2,300 6% ev/ebitda so we remain stock-selective. we revise our 12-m tps by -8% to +25%, as we adjust our 2010e-12e np estimates by -14% to +13% and bumi.jk itmg.jk banp.bk ptba.jk neutral neutral neutral neutral neutral neutral neutral sell idr idr thb idr 2,350 4

9、5,100 744 20,200 1,800 42,500 570 17,400 2,250 42,500 680 17,200 -4% -6% -9% -15% update our directors cut valuation plot. downgrade ptba to sell, adaro to neutral; reiterate sell (cl) sar we downgrade ptba to sell from neutral on rich valuations (8.9x 2011e ev/ebitda is highest in the asean coal se

10、ctor) and our belief that the railway projects may see implementations risks (e.g. land acquisitions) while market is pricing in no delay for its project completions. we reiterate our sell (cl) rating on sar as we think market may be too optimistic on its growth potential. our new 2010e-11e np estim

11、ates for sar are 6%-38% below bloomberg consensus, and we continue to see delay in sebuku ramp-up. we downgrade adaro to neutral from buy as we reduce our earnings estimates by 10-14% on higher costs and lower production forecasts. while we remain neutral on bumi, we note that stock has high beta an

12、d is highly sensitive to coal prices. key risks lower than expected oil prices or lower than expected chinese demand. strl.si sell* sell* s$ 2.31 1.70 *this stock is on our regional conviction list. note: our 12-month target prices are based on 2011e directors cut methodology. source: bloomberg, com

13、pany data, goldman sachs research estimates. nikhil bhandari +65-6889-2867 goldman sachs (singapore) pte patrick tiah, cfa +65-6889-2468 goldman sachs (singapore) pte the goldman sachs group, inc. the goldman sachs group, inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research repo

14、rts. as a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. for reg ac certification, see the end of the text. other impo

15、rtant disclosures follow the reg ac certification, or go to analysts employed by non-us affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with finra in the u.s. global investment research index(july=100) jan-06 jul-06 jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10 apr-06oct-06apr

16、-07oct-07apr-08oct-08apr-09oct-09apr-10 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 11 12 13 2 october 22, 2010 table of contents s-t upside risks to coal prices but rising supply ahead coal price may rise on weather disruptions/seasonality. . rally may be short-lived due to rising supply ahead potential over-supply of coal in

17、 china; imports may be flat to lower in 2011e rising supply may be mitigated by rising oil price coal to continue underperform oil; maintain coal price forecasts downgrade ptba to sell; adaro to neutral; sell (conv list) sar earnings revisions on lower 2010e production volumes and company-specific f

18、actors pt bukit asam (ptba) downgrade to sell straits asia: maintain sell (conviction list) pt adaro: downgrade to neutral risks for the sector asean: metals imports may be flat to lower in 2011e to recap, china turned into a net importer of coal in 2009 (from a net exporter) largely due to consolid

19、ation of small mines on safety reasons which affected the coal production growth and also due to railway bottlenecks. going forward, gao hua securities china utilities analyst, franklin chow, believes that there could be potential over-supply of coal in china due to following: from 2003 to 2008, coa

20、l-fired power generation capacity grew at a cagr of 16% while coal production in china grew by only a cagr of 10%. he expects the former to see a slower cagr of 6% from 2008 to 2013 (especially with the governments greater emphasis of a lower carbon economy) vs. an 8% cagr for coal. industry consoli

21、dation of coal mines by large state-owned coal suppliers may actually result in more stability for coal supply in china. as per factiva news dated 10 sep 2010, shanxi government declared in late august 2010 that the consolidation of coal industry in the province was nearly complete. coal transportat

22、ion bottleneck should continue to ease. not only has the railway coal carrying capacity continued to expand (2003-2008 cagr of coal cargo throughput of 9%), but coastal shipping capacity has also risen especially through ports such as for caofeidian, huanghua, and qinhuangdao. growing investment of

23、coal production and coal transportation capacity by major power producers. goldman sachs global investment research jan-10apr-07apr-08jan-07jan-08jan-09apr-09oct-07oct-08oct-09 jul-07jul-08jul-09apr-10jul-10 jul-10 apr-10jan-10oct-09 jul-09 apr-09jan-09oct-08 jul-08 apr-08jan-08oct-07 jul-07 apr-07j

24、an-07oct-06 jul-06 apr-06jan-06oct-05 jul-05 apr-05jan-05oct-04 jul-04 apr-04jan-04oct-03 jul-03 apr-03jan-03oct-02 jul-02 apr-02jan-02 5 october 22, 2010 exhibit 6: chinas monthly coal imports trend china turned from exporter to a net importer of coal in 2009 asean: metals maintain coal price forec

25、asts newcastle coal prices have underperformed oil prices by 13% over the last 3 months and coal-to-oil ratio (on energy equivalent basis) has declined from 27% to 23% over this period. this was largely in line with our expectations and was mainly driven by structurally easing supply in the thermal

26、coal market. we maintain our 2010e/11e/12e coal price assumptions of us$95/100/100 per ton. going forward, we believe that coal-to-oil ratio may continue to fall due to our rising thermal coal supply view (21%/19% in 2011e/12e). exhibit 12: coal and oil (wti) price assumptions 20092010e2011e2012e co

27、al price (newc, cy) yoy growth % wti oil price yoy growth % coal as % of oil equiv us$/t % us$/bbl % % 73 -43% 62 -38% 25%* 95 30% 82 32% 24% 100 5% 100 22% 21% 100 0% 110 10% 19% * 19% based on 5 year long dated oil (cl 60) source: bloomberg, global coal, goldman sachs research estimates. exhibit 1

28、3: coal price as % of oil (energy equiv. basis) (currently 23%, 14%-48% range based on weekly data, 22% average over jan 2000-july 2010) 55% 50% exhibit 14: newcastle spot thermal coal prices (current spot price is us$96/t) (us$/t) 200 180 45% 160 40% 140 35% 120 30% 100 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% source: b

29、loomberg, global coal. average = 22% 80 60 40 20 0 source: global coal. goldman sachs global investment research 7 october 22, 2010asean: metals adaro to neutral; sell (conv list) sar earnings revisions on lower 2010e production volumes and company-specific factors we reduce our 2010e eps by 3%-7% (

30、with the exception of adaro) on lower production volumes due to unseasonal rainfall in indonesia during 3q10. for adaro, we reduce our 2010e/11e/12e eps by 14%/11%/10% on higher costs (higher strip ratio and demurrage expenses) and lower production volumes. for banpu, we raise our 2011e/12e eps by 8

31、%/13% as we factor in the recent completion of centennial coal acquisition. for sar, in addition to 2010e we also reduce 2011e eps estimates by 3% as we cut production volume from sebuku mine as heavy rainfall could delay the expansion plans in our view. post the earnings revision, our 2010e-12e net

32、 profit estimates are +9% to -38% relative to bloomberg consensus. exhibit 15: asean coal sector net income revision gs forecasts% changegs vs consensus currencyfy2010efy2011efy2012efy2010efy2011efy2012efy2010efy2011efy2012e indonesia pt adaro energy bumi resources pt bukit asam itmg rp bn us$ mn rp

33、 bn us$ mn 3340 325 2308 328 5736 477 3530 474 7048 553 4006 541 -14% -7% -7% -3% -11% 0% 0% 0% -10% 0% 0% 0% -2% -2% -2% 3% 7% -8% 4% -1% 9% -11% 8% 4% thailand banpubt mn1261217368182981%8%13%nm-5%-7% singapore straits asiaus$ mn82123192-7%-3%0%-6%-38%-25% source: bloomberg, goldman sachs research

34、 estimates. exhibit 16: asean coal sector: earnings sensitivity to coal prices (impact of 5% increase in newcastle benchmark price) net profitebitda 2010e2011e2010e2011e adaro bumi resources bukit asam itmg banpu straits asia resources +6% +15% +5% +11% +6% +20% +12% +15% +10% +13% +10% +20% +4% +11

35、% +5% +9% +9% +14% +9% +12% +11% +12% +12% +15% source: goldman sachs research estimates. directors cut remains our primary valuation methodology we continue to use our returns-based directors cut as our primary methodology to set our 12-month target prices. we identify a high correlation between ev

36、/gci and croci/wacc for the indonesian thermal coal sector, as investors tend to reward companies earning higher returns with a premium ratingi.e., businesses that generate a substantial spread in terms of returns (croci) over their cost of capital tend to trade at a substantial premium to the capit

37、al invested in that business (gci). goldman sachs global investment research ev/gci(x) ev/gci(x) 8 october 22, 2010asean: metals downgrade to sell ptba is trading at a 12-mo forward ev/ebitda of 10.3x which is more than 1.5 sd above ptbas five-year historical mean. the stock is screening as one of t

38、he most expensive on ev/ebitda, p/e and appears overvalued on our directors cut approach (exhibits 17, 18). we downgrade the stock to sell from neutral. market is pricing in “no delay” in railway completions; implementation risk remains after several years of delay, in 4q09 ptba secured the in-princ

39、iple approval for construction of a new railway track of about 300 km (railway i). recently (aug 2010), adani enterprises (ael) also entered into an agreement to build a 270 km railway from ptbas tanjung enim mine (railway ii). both these railways are scheduled to complete by 2h2014, but we believe

40、there are implementation risks (a) no land has been acquired yet for railway i while the company need to do atleast 50% of land acquisitions before starting targeted construction in 3q2011. (b) the railway project with ael is only in feasibility stage now and will be subject to government approvals

41、and land acquisitions. we expect the ael railway project to only complete by 2h2016 vs. guidance of 2h2014 (see exhibit 24). croci may decline as ptba under-invested in the past we estimate ptbas croci to fall from 103% in 2009 to 56% in 2012e largely due to heavy capex required to achieve further g

42、rowth in production volumes (for e.g. expansion of tarahan port and upgrading of bwe). ptbas capex program over next 3 years imply a us$93/t of incremental production in 2009-12e. we marginally reduce our 12-month 2011e directors cut-based target price to rp17,200 (15% downside potential) from rp17,

43、400 previously. in setting our target prices, we previously assumed a 10% premium (based on last 5-year average) over sector average directors cut ratio due to ptbas superior croci profile. however we now remove this premium due to our belief that croci may decline going forward. this is largely off

44、set by higher sector valuation ratio of 0.99x (0.91x previously). risks 1) higher than expected coal prices (we estimate every 5% increase in 2011e prices could boost eps by 10%, 2) accretive m and (2) higher stripping cost in the re-zoned sebuku mine, we believe that costs may rise further. also, w

45、e estimate sars 2011e ebitda/t to be the lowest in the sector. catalysts we see the following catalysts over the next 6-12 months: (1) delays in the production ramp-up in sebuku and jembayan; and (2) results could be a negative catalyst for the stock as consensus reduces earnings estimates (our 2010

46、e-12 net profit estimates are 6%/38%/25% below bloomberg consensus). we note that during 11 out of the last 14 quarterly results, the stock traded down post announcement of results. we raise our 12-month directors cut-based target price to s$1.80 (22% downside potential) from s$1.70 previously, as w

47、e update our directors cut plot (raising valuation ratio to 0.99x from 0.91x previously), partly offset by lower earnings. we reduce our goldman sachs global investment research oct-07oct-08oct-09jan-07jan-08jan-09jan-10oct-10apr-07apr-08apr-09apr-10 jul-07jul-08jul-09jul-10 13 october 22, 2010asean

48、: metals downgrade to neutral since we added adaro to our buy list on oct 21, 2009, the stock has risen by 36.2% (vs. the jse up 44.5%). over the last 12 months, the stock rose 40.7% (vs. jse up 43.0%). we attribute the stocks underperformance versus the market to the weaker than expected 2q 2010 re

49、sults. we reduce our earnings estimates for 2010e/11e/12e by 14%/11%/10% as we (1) raise costs (on higher strip ratio and higher demurrage expenses) and (2) lower our production volumes (due to heavy rainfall and our belief that production growth from tutupan coal mine may slow going forward). we do

50、wngrade the stock to neutral as there is limited upside to our new 12-month target price of rp2300 (6% upside potential). coking coal expansion a long-term positive, but lacks visibility recently (march 2010) adaro has entered into a jv with bhp to acquire a 25% stake in the maruwai green-field coki

51、ng coal project. while this may enhance croci in the lt but for now this project lacks financial disclosures and visibility on infrastructure developments. production growth from tutupan mine may slow going forward adaros tutupan coal mine is the largest single-pit mine in the southern hemisphere pr

52、oducing 43 mt in 2010e. going forward, volume growth from tutupan may not be as robust due to its huge size and given it is operating in a single pit. however adaro would continue to grow its wara coal, which is of lower energy value and started production this year. we reduce our 12-month 2011e dir

53、ectors cut-based target price of rp2300 (6% upside potential), as we reduce earnings by 14%/11%/10% in 2010e/11e/12e which is partly offset by higher directors cut valuation ratio of 0.99x from 0.91x previously. risks - upside risks: sharp rise in coal prices; downside risks: adaros low calorific va

54、lue coal has a niche market due to its low sulphur and ash content, but this could be at risk if customer demands change. goldman sachs global investment research 2011e 14 october 22, 2010asean: metals remain neutral raising estimates on centennial coal acquisition recently (12 oct), banpu announced

55、 that it has closed its tender offer for the centennial coal. post buying a 78.62% stake through tender offer, banpu now holds 98.51% stake of the cey. we are now factoring in the full 100% earnings contribution from centennial coal. as a result, we raise our 2010e/11e/12e eps by 1%/8%/13%. low croc

56、i profile while itmg (74% owned indonesian coal subsidiary) has one of the highest croci in the sector, banpus croci is at the low end. we believe that this is because banpu tends to acquire developed assets instead of developing green-field, and this is also due to lower returns from its power busi

57、ness. with higher earnings and updated directors cut (raising valuation ratio to 0.99x from 0.91x previously), we raise our 12-month 2011e directors cut-based target price to bt680 (9% downside potential). this is at a 14% discount to our sotp (sum of parts) valuation of bt790, which is largely in l

58、ine with the historical average. risks: upside risks: sharp coal price rally. downside risks: sharp fall in set index as banpu is a high beta stock. exhibit 30: banpus sotp valuation (our 12-month tp of bt680 is at a 14% discount to sotp) exhibit 31: ebit (including associates) composition bt mn coa

59、l indonesia (itmg) china coal mines centennial coal total power china valuation methodology 12-mo target price 13x 2011e p/e investment cost dcf bt mn 100,032 82,861 67,200 250,093 5,605 bt/share 368 305 247 920 21 % of ev 36% 30% 24% 91% 2% power, 9% others, 5% indonesia thailand total dcf18,615 24,221 69 89 7% 9% australia coal, 45% other investmentscoal, 19% ratchaburi (ratch) enterprise value market value 8,096 274,314 30 1,009 3% 100% - 2010e net debt(59,563) net asset value (nav)214,751790 china coal mines valuation methodology is based on china thermal coal companies (exhibit 22) aver