【市场评估】中远项目建议书（英文）

1、july, 2001 cosco ipo support materials logistics services industry environment csfb; a.t. kearney analysis transportation and related expenditures by region (2000) transportation and related expenditures by function (2000) us$ bn total = us$ 3,837 bn others: -1.4% asia(1): 2.2% europe: 2.6% north am

2、erica: 4.0% 915 1102 1396 941 1073 1252 840 956 1092 729 706 649 199620002006e 3,424 3,837 4,389 cagr=2.3% cagr=2.8% warehousing $304 bn transport $2,204 bn others $55 bn shipper- related $20 bn inventory $1,102 bn admin $152 bn cagr 2000-2006 8 point/final version/logistics industry outlook -final/

3、 13 the asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach us$ 31 bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at cagr 39% over the next five years note:asia includes china, japan, honk kong, korea, singapore and taiwan source: bowersox and calantone; csfb; a.t. kearney analysis logistics outsourcing ma

4、rket in asia - gross revenue (us$ bn) 154 112 82 60 42 31 23 16 199920002001e2002e2003e2004e2005e2006e cagr (99-01) = 38% cagr (01-06) = 39% 8 point/final version/logistics industry outlook -final/ 14 the greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport, warehousing, and transport management

5、transport warehousing transport management it supplementary logistic services purchase order management logistics management 30% 47% 48% 85% 20% 40% 39% 76% 23% 2% 5% 16% % of respondents outsourcing 1998 % of respondents planed outsourcing 2003 13% 8% outsourcing by function resource require- ments

6、 complexity note:the percentage may not add up to 100% due to rounding source: based on several a.t. kearney studies, including: -worldwide study comprising 280 participants (automotive 19%, electronics 25%, retail 27%, chemicals 29%) -european study comprising 500 participants (retail 26%, food csf

7、b; a.t. kearney estimates 0.61 0.82 1.11 1.5 2.03 2.74 3.69 20002001e 2002e 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e cagr=35% globalasiachina 190 23 0.61 china logistics service market (us$, bn) 8 point/final version/logistics industry outlook -final/ 19 the logistics services industry is still at an early stage of

8、evolution in china characteristics emerging demand for outsourced logistics services low value added services such as transport and warehousing are the major type of services outsourced traditional in-house behaviour being impacted fast growth of logistics user base and higher requirement for broade

9、r services large number of services providers competing for customers and human resources most high value added services are free and provided as selling points logistics outsourcing becomes common practice and an important lever for competition consolidated service market with a few established mar

10、ket leaders logistics penetrate in supply chain and replace traditional business models global logistics integrators provide one-stop solution worldwide specialization and close cooperation among global logistics service providers optimized allocation and integration of resources along the supply ch

11、ain stage emergencegrowthpenetrationglobalization world leading (us) china today source: a.t. kearney 8 point/final version/logistics industry outlook -final/ 20 warehousing and distribution trucking rail freight although heavily used, railway freight has long transit times and service reliability i

12、s poor railway containers are not compatible with shipping company containers airline customs brokerage courier limited presence of foreign firms as jv e.g. dhl sinotrans regional segregation in operation logistics center and freight forwarding shipping the domestic warehousing market is currently s

13、mall and over-supplied with basic warehouses providing virtually no value- added services some consolidation just started among the large warehousing companies river transportation has declined most vessels are characterized by low speed and high energy costs trucking companies are only allowed to o

14、perate in restricted regions government has established 15 free trade zones and some logistics centers are set up there inland transportation is handled by domestic freight forwarder who is usually sub-contracted by the international freight forwarder seven domestic airlines dominate regional operat

15、ions designated foreign carriers are given a maximum entitlement of 50 tonnes per week many customs clearing brokerage firms and considerable confusion about roles customs clearing procedures took at least - 1 day previously but expected to be shortened to1 hour the logistics services industry is st

16、ill at an early stage of evolution in china (continued) source: a.t. kearney analysis china logistics services 8 point/final version/logistics industry outlook -final/ 21 transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in china than in most developed countries and nies indicating

17、a major improvement opportunity 23 67 248 568 794 14% 12% 23% 11%10% hong kongkoreachinajapanus log expenditurelog exp as % of gdp total transportation and related expenditures and % of gdp (2000) note: (1) vas: value-added-services (2) including packaging, admin, information services, ect. source:

18、bowersox and calantone, csfb, imf 1997 study; chinainfobank; a.t. kearney analysis us$ bn china transportation and related expenditures breakdown by function (2000) total = us$ 248 bn us$ bn vas 5% others 29% warehouse 24% transport 42% (1) (2) 8 point/final version/logistics industry outlook -final

19、/ 22 demand growth in coastal china, demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in guangdong and shanghai highlow hebei, beijing, tianjin 4 beijing is the no. 1 air cargo center in china. in addition, beijings hi-tech industry, which needs a lot of air transportation, is developing very

20、fast over 80% of the volume through tianjin port are agricultural products, furniture, metal hardware and raw materials, all being low value products. in addition, most shippers are in poor financial conditions and are very price sensitive shandong (qingdao) 4 qingdao has several famous local compan

21、ies, such as haier, hisense, aukma and qingdao beer. they are more quality oriented and less price sensitive frozen products account for 15-20% of the volume. quality requirements for frozen products are very high in terms of timing and handling care. hence, frozen products shippers tend to be less

22、price sensitive and more quality concerned footwear and garments account for significant portion. some large customers such as payless shoes (no. 1 customer of cosco in volume) requires accurate shipping time and full range of sophisticated 3pl services from p/o management, trade consulting to space

23、 booking, warehousing and transportation province logistics demand selected provinces in coastal china guangdong demand size 5 remarks major exports are processing of lower value-added products no special requirement for logistics quality; road transportation is convenient, often containerized in fa

24、ctory to reduce cost less need for warehousing/ consolidation electronics industry is booming in dongguan, which has some leading companies like huawei potential large profitable customers strongweak shanghai (jiangsu, zhejiang) 5 shanghai is the fast growing economic/ financial center in china, whi

25、ch has some major mncs such as sgm, acer, philips, etc. they are matured customers of logistics services and less price sensitive. on the other hand, to get the deals from them usually needs to involve high level negociation large companies in shanghai and nearby areas are mainly jvs of automobile a

26、nd consumer electronics industry, which have high product value and lower price sensitivity source: a.t. kearney field interviews and analysis 8 point/final version/logistics industry outlook -final/ 23 demand size sichuan (chengdu) have the 3rd largest distribution center in china, the largest popu

27、lation, and important heavy industry base the logistics industry there has already attracted interest of foreign large shippers like ikea and investors including hutchison whampoa located in mountain areas, road transport infrastructure is inconvenient, so highly relying on rail transport chongqing

28、2 agricultural products, metal products and motor cycles, which totally account for over 80% of the export volume, are all low-value products, price sensitive and have flat growth underdeveloped infrastructure, esp. road and rail transportation have limited foreign investments in this region. cargoe

29、s usually transported by barges, which is the cheapest mode province in inland china, the largest demand potential is in sichuan and the hubei/yangtze river region logistics demand selected provinces in inland china yunnan 2 demand growth remarks most important export industry is tobacco, which has

30、high profit margin, high quality requirement for logistics services, and not very price sensitive exports for wood, wooden materials and furniture, which accounted for over 30% of export volume before, are largely reduced due to newly imposed government sanction on cutting trees highlowstrongweak so

31、urce: a.t. kearney field interviews and analysis hubei, yangtze river region 3 exports are low-value products including tobacco, cotton, chemicals and steel materials many imports are material for jvs (e.g. citreon and dongfeng cummins), of which decisions are usually made overseas market is very fr

32、agmented and shippers generally have small scale/volume no warehouses/piling centers with modern container handling capacity and advanced it structure are available, can be a potential development area 3 8 point/final version/logistics industry outlook -final/ 24 growth in the logistics services ind

33、ustry in china will mainly be driven by continued macro economic growth and increased propensity to outsource logistics growth driverimplication the chinese economy is expected to grow at cagr 7% over the next five years. increased international and domestic trade will drive demand for logistics ser

34、vices public policy and spending supports improvements in chinas logistics infrastructure, providing opportunities for further expansion of logistics service providers. capable foreign service providers are limited in business scope by regulation, and their full entry after wto will drive the indust

35、ry toward international best practices there is increasing interest among china-based enterprises in outsourcing for logistics services. overseas businesses are extending their supply chains deeper into china the fast growing market in online b2b transactions provides an additional market segment fo

36、r logistics services favorable growth outlook for the china logistics services industry favorable macro economic outlook public policy and spending increasing interest in outsourcing for logistics needs growing it and e-business 1 2 3 4 source: a.t. kearney analysis 8 point/final version/logistics i

37、ndustry outlook -final/ 25 the chinese economy is expected to grow at cagr 7% over the next five years source: chinainfobank, a.t. kearney analysis 2001e2006e projection of chinas gdp growth and structure (rmb, bn) ncontinuous growth in gdp indicates a robust and fast growing macro economy, providin

38、g opportunities for sophisticated logistics service providers nthe economic structure will be continuously optimized and upgraded logistics is directly correlated with the manufacturing industry, therefore growth of secondary industries will lead to the growth of logistics services improved services

39、 industries will also have a positive impact on the logistics sector improved supportive services such as legal, accounting, etc. improved telecommunication capabilities remarks secondary: 7% tertiary: 9% cagr (01-06) total: 7% primary: 3% 13,367 9,560 favorable macro economic outlook 1 8 point/fina

40、l version/logistics industry outlook -final/ 26 demand for logistics services comes from both international and domestic trade source: hong kong trade development council research; chinainfobank demand for logistics services more international trademore domestic trade ninternational trade internatio

41、nal trade has sustained the global economic fluctuation and kept fast growing in the past 5 years it is projected to grow at a cagr of 7.5%, with total trade value reaching us$ 680 bn in 2005 nexports expected to rise by an additional 2.4% per year over the first five years of wto entry share as wor

42、ld exports is projected to rise from current 3.5% to 7.3% in 2005 nimports projected rise of us$ 21.3 bn after wto projected annual growth rate will be marginally faster than export ndomestic trade cagr of retail sales of consumer goods in the “ninth 5 year” was 11% positive outlook due to continuou

43、sly growing purchasing power ndevelopment of chain stores sales revenue of chain store corporations has experience double digit rise from 1997 multinational chain stores have been aggressively improving their presence in china market ninter-city trade currently more than 50% of the foreign industria

44、l and retail firms distributed their products in more than 50 cities inter-city trade will be frequent after wto favorable macro economic outlook 1 8 point/final version/logistics industry outlook -final/ 27 the state economic and trade commission has established a master plan for developing logisti

45、cs services in china state economic and trade commission logistics industry trade plan source: business alert china at 30 pilot centers inter-regional networks supply chain systems select suitable enterprises in various key cities to establish 30 pilot logistics and distribution centers 10 national

46、enterprises about 10 specialized key enterprises with national logistics and distribution networks will be developed realign assets to form inter-regional, inter-sector and inter- ownership logistics and distribution networks efforts will be made to explore the possibility of using 3pl and distribut

47、ion enterprises to build supply chain systems, and to bring facilities and services of logistics companies closer to advanced international standards public policy and spending 2 8 point/final version/logistics industry outlook -final/ 28 a wide array of government supported logistics infrastructure

48、 development programs are under way across china source: chinainfobank examples of government initiatives to improve logistics infrastructure a number of national logistics centers are under construction, with reasonable size, standardized operation, and modern facilities coastal large cities - logi

49、stics center inland areas - road/railway modern third party logistics and distribution base its main body will be linked to 7 railways and hundreds of railway transit points expected to serve for the dispatch of over 90% of daily necessities in the city also serve eastern china and the whole country

50、 shanghai commercial logistics center public policy and spending 2 high way density will grow to about 1650 km/10000sq.km in year 2005 invest rmb 270 bn to upgrade railway infrastructure new railways, electric railways, highways, expressways are in phase: 8 point/final version/logistics industry out

51、look -final/ 29 interviews with soes and foreign invested enterprises in china indicate a relatively strong interest in outsourcing logistics services source: a.t. kearney field interviews and research nsoes usually have own warehouses and trucking divisions, therefore, they demand less warehousing,

52、 transportation and other related value-added services. however, in face of increased competition, soes have a growing interest in outsourcing logistics nforeign invested enterprises have the highest requirement for logistics services in terms of range and quality. these companies are extending thei

53、r supply chains into china - replacing middle men who used to get china origin cargo to the port. mncs will be looking for logistics services companies in china to help them fill the void nimport/export companies have the least demand for logistics services providers, because most of these companies

54、 also provide transportation, customs clearance services, etc. remarks % of respondents with interest in outsourcing logistics services (2001) increasing interest in outsourcing for logistics needs 3 25% 40% 38% soeforeign invested enterprises import/export companies 8 point/final version/logistics

55、industry outlook -final/ 30 china-based companies have a positive attitude towards purchasing advanced logistics services and quality, speed, and price are the most important purchasing criteria note:(1) survey by the china warehouse association (2000) attitudes and preferences for distribution of 4

56、50 large and medium-sized enterprises (2) the responding enterprises deal in electrical home appliances, electronics, foodstuffs and chemicals for daily use source: chinainfobank, china warehouse associate, a.t. kearney filed interviews and research 7% 22% 26% 29% 44% 52% 64% 75% looking for distrib

57、ution services prefer transportation companies use general logistics agents prefer trunk line services looking for new logistics agents hire third party agents hope that new logistics providers will provide comprehensive logistics services looking for modern logistics companies interest in logistics

58、 services survey results (2000) logistics services purchasing criteria - china 0.88 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.68 0.91 0.91 0.93 network documentation reputation info tracking professionalism price service speed service quality relative importance high avg. = 0.82 increasing interest in outsourcing for logist

59、ics needs 3 low 8 point/final version/logistics industry outlook -final/ 31 online transactions provides an additional source of growth for logistics services source: research report of china e-business association and network evaluation center, apl. 2001 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 20002001200220032004 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 b2bb2c growth of online transaction in china (us$, bn) b to b (us$, bn) b to c (us$, bn) growing it and e- business 4 nindustry - public information platform reducing cost and overlap in investment, information share ncustomers/shippers standard bar coding system, easier for ou