GartnerTrendsInITandCommunicationsEBIG

1、notes accompany this presentation. please select notes page view. these materials can be reproduced only with written approval from gartner. such approvals must be requested via e-mail: . gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. trends in it & communications kathie hackl

2、er mvp enterprise network services march 10, 2008 key issues 1. what are the most critical trends and innovations overall? 2. how has the communications market changed? 3. what are the trends in each of the communications markets? 4. where is the money being invested? 5. how does the future look? se

3、ven key overall trends affecting telecom services in the cloud & web 2.0 greening of business economic uncertainty massive video adoption oblique carrier competition mobile workforce rising power of consumers/prosumers “cloud computing” the next buzzword web 2.0 (or 3.0) is part of the “cloud” busin

4、ess technology community long-tail economics architecture of participation collective intelligence social software rich internet applications mashup syndication customer/community participation web platforms user-created applications user-created content and metadata unprecedented user freedom expli

5、cit community ratings web-services-enabled business models micropayments revenue sharing woa rss mashups pox/http rest wikis social publishing social networking blogs ajaxplug-ins widgets and gadgets traditional vs. cloud computing buy external service delivery model technical model business model i

6、nterface model traditional computing cloud computing scalable, elastic, dynamic, multi-tenant pay directly based on usage or indirectly (e.g., subsidized by advertising) via the internet using standard internet ifaps (ip, html, http) buy assets and build delivery architecture single tenant pay for f

7、ixed assets and administrative overhead internal network or intranet communications: undergoing the biggest changes since the internet “went public” the old way scarce network capacity telco-defined services aligned competition hardware-centric location-bound capital and labor intensive the new way

8、commodity infrastructure user experience matters nonaligned competition software- and web-centric open applications/services business-intelligence-driven broadband redefined & commoditized 0 512 kbps 1 mbps5 mbps 10 mbps 100 mbps hong kong south korea singapore taiwan australia china india germany u

9、.k. france canada u.s.a. mass-market speeds highest speeds available 2 mbps 1 gbps japan maximum download speeds consumer choice, consumer control 2. iptv subscription service distribute widescreen mobile 1. over the top apple tv distributes tv over ip in the home. record and store slingbox distribu

10、tes a local tv devices content over the internet. computer who wins? 3%: iptv subscribers the rest: over the top purchase view broadband video is exploding and its only just started the number of users of video sites nearly doubled from the end of 2006 to the end of 2007. (source: pew internet and a

11、merican life project, 2008) strategic planning assumption: video usage for enterprise training and communication will reach an inflection point in 2009, with a 20%+ increase in the number of users. strategic planning assumption: video uptake will surge in targeted vertical applications (field force

12、automation, law enforcement, surveillance and retail) during 2008 to 2010. photo courtesy of polycom standard videoconferencing is in stasis, but streaming, on-demand and hd is hot. flavors of enterprise video video streaming videoconferencing webcasting web conferencing live and on-demand streaming

13、 rich media delivery used for events such as internal meetings room-based videoconferencing telepresence mobile video to reach a large audience one-way communication in tv broadcast style market penetration of 5% services used for collaboration typically a small-to-medium-sized group usually real-ti

14、me 75% provided by service providers (hosted) blurring the lines between networks and software: unified communications & collaboration collaborationcommunications networking voice voip blogs social software wikis telephony web audio video conferencing team workspaces call centers fixed mobile conver

15、gence infrastructure presence voice mail directory e-mail instant messaging trends: mobile devices new entrants at the ends of the value chain, and consolidation in the middle device vendors build out ecosystems removing complexity for the user. mobile devices as “lifestyle statements” field-refresh

16、able platforms. trends: enterprise communications applications hybrid sourcing strategies combine carrier- and user-provided models users get serious about unified communications software componentization will radically change the communications applications market companies adopting cornerstone ven

17、dors for contact centers trends: enterprise infrastructure & services networks get smarter top areas for investment will be mobility, unified communications, application fluency and security. video is resurrected and not necessarily controlled by cios cisco remains dominant collaboration software di

18、splaces hardware in importance trends: consumer communications users redefine communications consumer and internet companies drive innovations video strategy top focus for carriers invisible mobility trends: carrier strategies oblique competition adoption of internet-like architectures internally co

19、ntext and content deep financial restructuring new business structures trends: carrier infrastructure connectivity and service separation speculative investment declines operational outsourcing reduction of suppliers softwarization and commoditization venture investment trends 2007 nationwide, $29.4

20、b into 3,813 deals four consecutive quarters exceeded $7b 1/3 in silicon valley and the broader bay area life sciences strong software captured $5.3b in 905 deals telecom companies dropped semi-conductors, electronics and healthcare slipped source: sj mercury news: http:/ gains in vc funding interne

21、t-specific companies ($4.6b/748) media and entertainment ($1.9b/340) recent announcements last week: at&t, william morris, accel partners and venrock look for “new digital media” companies $100m iphone fund from kleiner perkins the carriers dilemma weak voice revenues massive operational costs decli

22、ne in profitability limited consolidation benefits 35% asia/japan europe north america 20042006 40% margins converging voice shrinking business voice over broadband consumer pstn consumer vob business pstn 2007 ($404b) 2011 ($335b) business pstn consumer pstn mobile is flattening difficulty monetizing new services control over devices and appli