信贷评分方法在建立可持续的中小企业信贷业务中的作用

1、征信产品在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用高级研讨会,信贷评分方法在建立可持续的中小企业信贷业务中的作用 What Roles Can Credit Scoring Methodology Play in Building Sustainable SME Portfolio,导言 Introduction 中小企业的定义 The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) defined 数据对中小企业信贷决策的作用 The Relevance of Data for SME decision-making 贯穿中小企业客户生命周期的信贷评分工具 Credit Scorin

2、g across the SME account life cycle 结论 Conclusion,议程 AGENDA, 2007 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.,导言 Introduction 中小企业的定义 The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) defined 数据对中小企业信贷决策的作用 The Relevance of Data for SME decision-making 贯穿中小企业客户生命周期的信贷评分工具 Credit Scoring across the SME account life cy

3、cle 结论 Conclusion, 2007 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.,议程 AGENDA,中型和小型企业（中小企业）详细定义The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) defined,设定背景对经济的贡献 Setting the context/Economic relevance: 欧洲 Europe 拉丁美洲 Latin America 美国 US 中国 China, 2007 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.,设定背景（欧盟）：欧洲委员会关于中小企业的官方定义

4、Setting the context (EU): European Commission official definition of an SME*,具有以下特征的企业 A business entity that 员工人数少于250人 Has no more than 250 employees 单个更大企业股东单独或联合持有的股份少于25 Is not more than 25% owned, either singly or jointly, by a larger company 年销售额少于4300万欧元 Has an annual turnover of no more tha

5、n 43 million,*欧洲委员会布鲁塞尔， 2003年5月6日 European Commission Brussels May 6, 2003,设定背景（欧盟）：对经济的贡献 Setting the context (EU): Economic relevance,微型和中小企业对社会和经济起着十分重要的作用 Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises are socially and economically important 欧盟99的企业为微型和中小企业 Represent 99% of all enterprises in the EU

6、 这些企业提供了6500万个就业机会 Provide around 65 million jobs 为放贷人带来许多业务成长机会 Lots of growth opportunities for lenders 2004年Eurobarometer对创业精神的调查：在过去三年中，只有4的欧洲人参与了企业创办（而美国的这一比例接近12） 2004 Eurobarometer survey on entrepreneurship: Only 4% of Europeans involved in setting up a business in last 3 years (US rate is c

7、lose to 12%),设定背景（拉丁美洲）：小企业定义 Setting the context (Latin America):Small business definition,哥伦比亚 COLOMBIA 员工人数不超过200人 Number of Employees up to 200 年销售额少于100万美元 Annual Sales of up to $1 million 信贷总额不超过20万美元 Credit of up to $200,000 小企业的类型 Types of Small Businesses: 个人独资 Sole Proprietors 合伙制 Partners

8、hips 公司制 Corporations,墨西哥 MEXICO 员工人数不超过100人 Number of Employees up to 100 年销售额不超过50万美元 Annual Sales of up to $500,000 信贷总额不超过20万美元 Credit of up to $200,000 小企业的类型 Types of Small Businesses: 个人独资 Sole Proprietors 合伙制 Partnerships 公司制 Corporations,设定背景（拉丁美洲）：对经济的贡献 Setting the context (Latin America)

9、: Economic relevance,小企业部门是最大的就业来源，它促进了经济和社会的发展 Economic growth and social development by being the leading source of employment 在哥伦比亚，63的就业机会来自于小企业部门 In Colombia the small business sector employs 63% of work force 在墨西哥，78的就业机会是由小企业部门创造的 In Mexico 78% of work force 绝大部分的产品用于满足国内消费需求 Majority of prod

10、uction is for internal consumption 哥伦比亚25的国内产出来自小企业部门 Colombia 25% internal production 墨西哥68的国内产出来自小企业部门 Mexico 68% internal production 信贷的可获得性对小企业的生存发挥着至关重要的作用 Credit availability plays a fundamental role for survival of the small business 小企业较难获得资金和最新技术 Small businesses have limited access to fund

11、ing and consequently to the newest technology,设定背景（美国）：小企业的定义 Setting the context (US): Small business definition,年销售额不超过500万美元 Annual Sales of up to $5 million 信贷额不超过25万美元 Credit of up to $250,000 小企业的类型 Types of Small Businesses: 个人独资 Sole Proprietors 合伙制 Partnerships 公司制 Corporations 美国”官方“定义 The

12、 “Official” US Definition:美国的小企业是指独立拥有和经营的，在其行业领域不占主导地位的，符合美国小企业管理局发布的（联邦法规汇编第13篇第121条，修订条款）有关小企业的员工人数、平均年销售额或其它划分指标的企业 A small business is a U.S. business that is independently owned and operated, is not dominant in its field of operation and can qualify under criteria concerning number of employee

13、s, average annual receipts or other criteria as outlined by the U.S. Small Business Administration (CFR Title 13, Part 121, as amended) 企业规模标准依据不同行业和行业分类来决定。没有一个固定的规则是一个复杂的随时可能变动的目标 Size standards are determined by Industry and Industry Classification. No one rulea complex moving target 美国小企业局曾于2004

14、年考虑将小企业定义中的员工人数指标扩大到1500人。 The SBA definition may change in 2004 to include businesses with up to 1500 employees,设定背景（美国）：对经济的贡献 Setting the context (US): Economic relevance,传统上，美国的企业被划分为大型、中型和小型 U.S. businesses were traditionally classified as either large, medium or small 个人独资企业大约占了企业总数的73 Approxi

15、mately 73% of businesses are sole proprietorships 另外6为合伙制企业 Another 6% are legally filed as partnerships, 21为私营公司制企业 21% are filed as private corporations 美国人口调查局1997年的研究显示，按员工人数和年销售额这两个指标进行划分，全国98的个人独资企业、合伙制企业和私营公司制企业都是小企业。 1997 study conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, 98% of sole proprietorships

16、, partnerships and private corporations are considered small businesses based upon employee size and annual sales volume.,设定背景（美国）：对经济的贡献 Setting the context (US): Economic relevance,不管基于何种定义，小企业都代表了美国全部企业数的9598 Small businesses, regardless of definition, represent 95% to 98% of all U.S. businesses

17、99.7的总就业人口 99.7% of all employers 39的高科技企业工人 39% of workers in high tech 6080的新就业机会 60-80% of all new jobs 50的非农业私营部门产出和22.8的联邦主包/分包合同金额 50% of non-farm private sector output and 22.8% of federal prime/subcontractor dollars 53的企业为住家办公型企业，3为特许经营企业 53% of businesses are home bases and 3% are franchise

18、s,中小企业风险管理的要点：中小企业信贷将对经济健康产生影响 The point of SME risk management: SME lending impacts economic health,中小企业信贷将对一国的经济健康和放贷机构的利润率产生影响 SME lending impacts both economic health of a nation and institutional profitability “信贷评分技术为（美国）市场发展打下了基础它使贷款人能够建立起高度多元化的贷款组合，从而大幅降低信贷风险。（信贷评分）在改善我们的信贷发放系统效率和扩大发放范围方面也起到

19、了主要作用，它使贷款人扩大了它们愿意放贷并能从中获利的借款人基础。” “Credit-scoring technologies have served as the foundation for the development of U.S. marketsallowing lenders to build highly diversified loan portfolios that substantially mitigate credit risk. Credit scoring has played a major role in promoting the efficiency an

20、d expanding the scope of our credit-delivery systems and allowing lenders to broaden the population they are willing and able to serve profitably.” 美联储主席艾伦格林斯潘 在美国银行协会会议上的讲话 2002年10月7日 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Remarks before the American Bankers Association, October 7, 2002 “随着经济活动不断

21、增强，以及企业对其客户的需求越来越有信心，企业对贷款的需求将会增加，银行业面临的利润压力将会开始缓解” “As economic activity continues to grow and businesses become more confident about their customers demands, business loan demand should increase, and pressures on banking margins should begin to ease.” 美联储主席艾伦格林斯潘 在美国独立社区银行大会上的讲话（通过卫星联线），2004年3月17日

22、 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Remarks Before the Independent Community Bankers of America Convention, via satellite March 17, 2004,中国的中小企业：经济增长的动力 SMEs in China: An Engine for Growth,中国政府希望中小企业在中国经济增长中发挥更加重要的作用 Chinese Government expecting SMEs to play an increasing important role in Chi

23、nas economic growth. 起草了一系列支持中小企业发展的鼓励政策，举办了诸如2006年第3届中小企业融资大会等促进借贷双方交流的活动 Series of preferential policies drafted to support SMEs as well as initiatives such as Financing Fair during 3rd CISMEF in 2006 to bridge SMEs with Lenders. 仅广东一省，就有38万家私营中小企业，总投资超过5000亿元人民币（合625亿美元），雇用员工总数超过350万人 Guangdong a

24、lone has registered more than 380,000 privately-run SMEs, total investment more than RMB 500 billion (USD 62.5 billion) and employs more than 3.5 million people. 虽然中小企业被认为是主要的经济力量，但是却仍然较难获得银行贷款，因为它们在传统上被认为是高风险且服务成本较高的对象 Though SMEs are recognized as an important sector of the economy, accessing bank

25、 financing remains difficult as SMEs are traditionally perceived as high-risk & high cost to service,导言 Introduction 中小企业的定义 The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) defined 数据对中小企业信贷决策的作用 The Relevance of Data for SME decision-making 贯穿中小企业客户生命周期的信贷评分工具 Credit Scoring across the SME account life cycle

26、 结论 Conclusion,议程 AGENDA, 2007 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.,从其它国家市场中可以学习到的主要知识 Key Learnings from other markets,数据是最重要的 Data are paramount 成功依赖于持续地获取、保留和利用所有相关数据的能力 Success depends on the ability to capture, retain and use all relevant data over time 数据清洗是必需的步骤 Data hygiene is a required st

27、ep 预测模型和分析工具 Predictive models and analytics 需要充分的准备时间来采取行动 Requires sufficient lead time to take action 战略、报告和合规的组成部分 Component of strategy, reporting, compliance 自动化 Automation 成本节约、一致性、准确性 Cost savings, consistency, accuracy 流程、规则、结果 Processes, rules, output 必须对战略进行结合、测试和跟踪 Strategy must be align

28、ed, tested and tracked 各个不同的层次：产品、定价、决策流程 Various levels: product, pricing, decision making process 在整个客户生命周期中结合数据工具 Alignment across the account lifecycle 测试和跟踪是关键 Testing and tracking are key,对中小企业借款人的认识 SME trivia,个人数据：不断地被证明，它是预测小小企业表现的最强有力的指标 Consumer data is proven time and time again to be th

29、e most powerful predictor of very small business performance 业主作为消费者的表现模式经常被错误地认定为是服务于个人产品的，而它实际上是一个典型的服务于商业（即小企业）产品的数据 Business owner pattern of consumer performance often mistakenly viewed adversely for consumer products yet is typical for commercial products 商业数据通常是一个预测借款企业表现的早期指标 Commercial data

30、 often an early indicator of performance 在标准付款行为中，应区分商业习惯和付款能力的差别 Difference between standard payment as part of business practices and capacity issues 小企业选择最先偿还银行贷款，其次是付水电气等公用事业费，最后才是付供应商的货款 Small businesses pay their banks first, utilities second and vendors last,对中小企业借款人的认识 SME trivia,将个人和商业数据结合使

31、用，以期100地达到巴塞尔新资本协议的精度要求 Marrying consumer and commercial data to get to 100% resolution as required under Basel II 美国中小企业管理局 The U.S. Small Business Administration 从360度的全景、隐藏的细微差别、连通性等方面进行数据清洗 Data hygiene for 360 view, hidden nuances, connectivity 财务数据（企业自行报送或从公共渠道获得） 对评分或自动决策没有什么价值 Financial Data

32、 (self reported or public) little value in scoring or automated decisioning 行业分类各人有各人的定义和解释 Industry Classifications different meanings and interpretations depending on audience 在人工审贷和自动审贷之间存在巨大的成本差异 Huge cost differential between judgmental and automation,企业规模确实是一个需要考虑的因素Size does matter,高 High,商业

33、Business,个人Personal,企业规模 Size of Company,低 Low,小型 Small,大型 Large,价值 Value,数据的作用 Relevance of Data Contributions,早先的生意关系 Previous Business Relationship 15 30% 个人征信机构数据 Consumer Credit Bureau data 30 40% 财务数据 Financial Data 15% 贷款申请数据 Application Data 15%,成功实施数据驱动型放贷所运用的战术：案例分析 Tactics for data-driven

34、 success：Case study,是一家在美国东海岸中部地区运营的区域性银行 Regional bank operating in the mid-Atlantic area of the U.S. 在过去的5年时间中，开始加快利用自动化审批和信贷评分技术 Over past 5 years, have begun to accelerate use of automation and credit scoring 小企业贷款余额为15亿美元 $1.5B small business portfolio 小企业的定义为年销售额不超过2000万美元。由于Fair Isaac的小企业定义是年

35、销售额不超过500万美元，因此，评分仅能针对总量的50 Small business defined by client as up to $20MM in annual sales. Since Fair Isaac SBSS definition is $5MM, score only 50%of volume 对客户的贷款处理时间从过去的两周下降到了不超过1天 Average turnaround time with the customer is down from over 2 weeks, to less than one day 绝大多数贷款申请的处理时间不到15分钟 Major

36、ity of applications processed in less than 15 minutes,小企业贷款组合是整个银行较赚钱的资产，也是处于成长中的业务之一 Small business portfolio is one of the more profitable areas of the bank as well as one of the growth areas for the bank 管理层认为经过信贷评分发放的贷款组合比没有经过信贷评分发放的贷款组合的利润率高（运营成本低，不良率低） Management says credit scored portfolio h

37、as better profitability than non-credit scored portfolio (lower operating costs, lower delinquencies) 集中式放贷和标准化流程（即：使用自动化审贷技术，使用评分工具来达到一致的客观的高质量的决策） Centralized underwriting and process standardization (i.e. use of technology for automation, use of credit scoring for consistent/ objective/high quali

38、ty decisions) 过去在经营上太过保守。研究成果能帮助银行加强信心，使它们能够减少拒绝的客户数 Were too conservative in the past. Research has helped bank get more comfortable, is allowing them to turn less business away 帐户管理流程中也使用技术，得益于对内部数据和信贷评分的综合利用 Account management processes also use technology, leverages full internal data and credit

39、 scoring 通过评分发放的贷款组合，其运营成本不良率改善了5到10实现了可观的效益 Operating costs/delinquencies in scored portfolio improved by well over 5% to 10% a significant multiple of improvement,成功实施数据驱动型放贷所运用的战术：案例分析（续） Tactics for data-driven success：Case study(Cont.),评分既能改善风险业绩又能促进更有效的资源配置 Scoring drives both improved risk pe

40、rformance and more effective resource allocation,评分 SCORE,自动接受 AUTOACCEPT,自动拒绝 AUTODECLINE,评估 REVIEW,申请人数量 # OF APPLICANTS,提高自动审批率2040 .在不增加贷款风险的情况下降低了客户的运营成本。由于降低了FTE成本，中型规模公务卡客户可立即为放贷机构创造140万美元的利润 Increasing auto-approvals 20 to 40% . saves clients operating cost without adding risk to portfolio.

41、Mid-size commercial card client instantly added $1.4M to their bottom line from reduced FTE costs,从1200美元到 100美元From $1200+ to $100,“评分能够帮助风险分散化” “scoring helps to diversify risk”,导言 Introduction 中小企业的定义 The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) defined 数据对中小企业信贷决策的作用 The Relevance of Data for SME decis

42、ion-making 贯穿中小企业客户生命周期的信贷评分工具 Credit Scoring across the SME account life cycle 结论 Conclusion,议程 AGENDA, 2007 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.,信贷评分 CREDIT SCORES,风险评分 RISK SCORES,非风险 NON-RISK,收入 REVENUE 回应 RESPONSE 消耗 ATTRITION 等 ETC.,帐户开发AccountOrigination,帐户管理AccountManagement,贷款申请评分APPLICATI

43、ON SCORES,行为评分BEHAVIOUR SCORES,征信机构评分 CREDIT BUREAU SCORES,评分类型 Types of Scores,Jamaica,全球FICO 评分的可获得性 Worldwide FICO Score Availability,全面数据共享 部分数据共享,HEADER RECORD (IDENTIFYING INFORMATION) I. Wishfor Credit12 Lost Lane Sams Petrol & Oil 805 Main St. Somewhere, 6666 Attendant Anytown, 9999 Date of

44、Birth 1965-05-26 ID 8888888888888 PUBLIC RECORDS (LEGAL ITEMS) 1999-02-14 Judgment 1000 ACCOUNT INFORMATION (PAYMENT PROFILE) SupplierDate Date Opening Current Account Payment ReportedOpenedBalance Balance Type Profile NiceWear 2002061997011070054 I 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 Su

45、perCall 20020719990312223120 R P 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Best Bank 200207199302017,5003,520 R 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Village Bank 20020720000214 12,0007,358 I 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 ENQUIRIES (SEARCHES) DateSubscriberType 2001-0

46、4-21GoodBuyEQ 2002-05-10RocketFinEQ,4,680,征信机构评分的价值：提炼预测能力 The Value of CB Scores: Distilling the predictive power,基础记录（身份信息）,帐户信息（付款状况）,查询（搜索）,公共记录（法院判决）,600,620,640,680,征信机构评分对个人风险进行排序 Credit Bureau Scores rank consumer risk,控制低端“推翻” Control Low-side Overrides,控制风险的机会 Opportunity to Control Risk,获

47、得新客户的机会 Opportunity for New Booking,控制高端“推翻” Control High-side Overrides,双重评分机会 Dual Score Opportunities,贷款申请评分,在整个信贷生命周期中都可使用 Use through the credit lifecycle,征信机构评分 Credit Bureau Score,Application or Behaviour Score,低 Low,高 High,高 High,强化你的决策 Strengthen your decision,改变你的决策 Change your decision,改变

48、你的决策 Change your decision,补充定制评分 Complementing custom scores,贷款申请或行为评分,对金融机构在小企业业务中使用信贷评分的调查和评估 Survey: Assessment of Financial Institution Use of Credit Scoring for Small Business Lending,随着第三方信贷评分的出现，银行小企业业务的运营方式发生了巨大的变化 Banks operation for lending to small businesses have changed dramatically wit

49、h the advent of 3rd party credit scores 信贷评分采用对风险进行量化评估的方式，增加了小企业可以获得的资金量 Credit scores introduce a quantitative measure of risk that may increase the availability of funds to small businesses 调查发现，各银行在小企业贷款中运用信贷评分工具时，存在不同的方式：The survey confirms that banks implement the use of credit scoring for small business loans in a number of different ways:,针对业主 的信贷评分 Credit Score of Owner,针对企业 的信贷评分 Business Credit Score,信贷评分 业主和企业 Credit Score Owner & Biz,A,=,+,B,C,来源 Source: Charles D. Cowan and Adrian M. Cowan for SBA (2006),针对业主的信贷评分 Owner Credit Score,针对业主和企业的信贷评分 Owner &